PB NFL Previes

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2010 AFC EAST DIVISION PREVIEW

With NFL 'EAST' division teams leading the charge with a combined total of 13 games played in Conference title tilts this past decade, including an league high four championship game appearances games by squads playing out of the AFC EAST, it speaks to the strength of this group.

So does the division's 29-14 ATS mark as non-division road dogs from Game Twelve out this past decade, including a sterling 14-1 ATS when facing sub. 600 opposition.

Leading the charge is Mr. Personality himself, Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots. While his persona is hardly enduring, his manhandling of AFC East division foes that are off back-to-back losses is downright sinister, going 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS with the Pats in these affairs.

The Jets go from the hunter to the hunted. It will be interesting to see how they handle their newfound celebrity status.

Meanwhile, Miami owner Stephen Ross insists his team has Super Bowl champion written all over them. Our best guess is that happens as they bust out their 1972 throwbacks at some point during the season.

And then there's Buffalo, ushering in a seventh different head coach this millennium. With the Bills enjoying only one winning season during this span, Chan Gailey's troops could mildly surprise, especially with all the pressure in this loop pointed elsewhere.

Note: Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

BUFFALO
TEAM THEME: DRINKING THE KOOL-AID
January 8, 2000. It not only marked the start of a new millennium, it also commemorates the date this floundering franchise last appeared in a playoff game. That was under the lead of Wade Phillips. Greg Williams, Mike Mularkey and Dick Jauron have all since attempted, and failed, to secure a post-season berth for the Bills. Along with dreadful Detroit, it's been a long time between drinks of playoff water in Buffalo. Enter Chan Gailey, former NFL retread. In his two years at the helm with the Dallas Cowboys, Gailey managed a taste of the playoffs both seasons, albeit one-and-outs. That was likely the attraction in his hire by the Buffalo brass. To compete within the ultra-tough AFC East, Gailey will hope the selection of do-everything RB C.J. Spiller with the 9th pick in the first-round pays off. He provides a huge dose of excitement to a dreadful offense that was better than only Cleveland and Oakland last year.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. New England (12/26) – *KEY if Bills .500 >

MIAMI
TEAM THEME: MARSHALL PLAN
Some things in life come as no surprise. Ben Roethlisberger looking for a little bump-and-run. The Dallas Cowboys collapsing like the London Bridge on the road in December. Bill Parcells ordering up seven defensive players with his eight picks in this year's draft. You get the drift. First-round draft pick Jared Odrick, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year at Penn State, is moving from defensive tackle in a 4-3 at Penn State to defensive end in a 3-4. That's because of a shakeup on the DL due to the loss of massive NT Jason Ferguson, suspended the first eight games of the season for repeated violations of the performance enhancing policy. The addition of home-run hitting WR Brandon Marshall should kick-start QB Chad Henne's development while the running back tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams is as good as any in the league. All in all, a grand plan by the Tuna for getting his Fish back into playoff waters.
PLAY ON: as dog at Cincinnati (10/31)

NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: 3RD AND LONG IN THE TOOTH
Don't look now but the Pats are taking on the look of an aging rock group. WR Randy Moss turned 33 and a step slower. His partner, WR Wes Welker, caught more passes (123) than anyone in the league in 2009, but underwent off-season knee surgery for a torn ALC and MCL and as a result, 34-year old Torry Holt was signed. RB Kevin Faulk turned 34 this summer and even star QB Tom Brady lists a pair of 3's next to his age theses days. With other aging veterans either on or currently looking to earn a roster spot (Alge Cumpler, David Patten, Sammy Morris, Shawn Springs, etc.), the crow's feet are creeping in on the Patriots. It's why Bill Belichick loaded up on a stockpile of quality picks (12) in this year's draft. While there is no refuting their results (121 wins the last nine years), New England is the pre-season 3rd choice to win the AFC on 2010. An oldies concert in Foxboro this January is pending.
PLAY ON: as dog at San Diego (10/24)

NY JETS
TEAM THEME: ALL IN
Funny thing about Jets head coach Rex Ryan. He isn't a salesman but you sure get the feeling he's selling you something. Straight out of the World Series school of Poker Bluff, Ryan was not content playing the same hand that dealt the Jets 11 wins in 2009. Gone are G Alan Faneca, RB's Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and CB's Lito Sheppard and Donald Strickland. In their place he acquired CB Antonio Cromartie, LB/DE Jason Taylor, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Santonio Holmes. There is no disguising the fact the Jets owned the No. 1 team defense and rushing offense (the magic hand) in the league last year. Ryan, the master of "I wasn't aware of that," when asked about being underdogs in the playoffs last year said, "To me we should be favorites. I mean in the whole tournament... I want this football team. If I had a choice to coach any team in this tournament, I would choose this one." Are you buying it?
PLAY ON: as dog at Miami (9/26)

[bobby2]

2010 AFC NORTH DIVISION PREVIEW

Once an AFC division powerhouse when operating under the 'Central' brand, the AFC North has pretty much settled into a two-team loop with Baltimore and Pittsburgh leading the charge. Together, playing under the AFC North umbrella, the Ravens and Steelers combined to go 163-111-2 this past decade with only four losing seasons between the dynamic duo. On the flip side, Cincinnati and Cleveland paired to post a 105-153-1 ledger over the same span, with just four wining seasons combined.

While a changing of the guard does not appear imminent, the Bengals served notice last season that they are about ready to shed their losing ways. Was 2009 for real or just a brilliant disguise? Stay tuned.

A word to the wise: teams from this division could not handle the weight of double-digit favoritism, combining to go 10-20 ATS this past decade as double-digit favorites when facing an opponent with at least one win on the season. Caveat emptor.

Noteesignated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: THOSE WERE THE DAYS
One of the best lines uttered by NFL ESPN analyst Jon Gruden last season was when he said, "If the Baltimore Ravens wore their throwback uniforms they would be the Cleveland Browns." The fact of the matter is the Black Birds are a long way removed from being the Browns these days. A tough-as-nails defensive presence is back. In addition, the offense opened up in 2009, making the Ravens a difficult game on every team's itinerary. Five of the seven regular season losses were by a field goal or less and had they not been so sloppy in the late stages of many of those games, they could have matched the 13-win campaign orchestrated in John Harbaugh's rookie season in 2008. Another strong draft by GM Ozzie Newsome will go a long way in sustaining Baltimore's dominance on defense. Art Modell no longer has his stamp on this franchise. It's a good thing Newsome does.
PLAY ON: as dog at Cincinnati (9/19)

CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: CATS AND DOGS
Snapping an inglorious skein of one winning season in 18 years, the Bengals returned to the playoffs for only the second time since 1990 last year. Making it even harder to fathom is the fact Cincinnati failed to cover the spread all eight games in which they were favored, losing four times straight-up. The Striped Cats' multiple personalities went full circle, though, when they managed no less than six straight-up underdog wins, making them hands-down the Yin and Yang award winners in 2009. A dicey schedule (4th toughest in the league) this year could prove to be a challenge. A positive sign that the Bengals have rounded the corner: Entering 2008, they were 1-27 SU and 6-20 ATS on the road against .700 or greater opposition. They went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS against the same last year. Still, head coach Marvin Lewis remains cautious. "We didn't stand pat this off-season. We don't get nothing for last year."
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Pittsburgh (11/8) – *KEY if Steelers off loss

CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: REVOLVING DOOR
Check out this resume: Derek Anderson, Tim Couch, Trent Dilfer, Ken Dorsey, Charlie Frye, Jeff Garcia. Bruce Gradkowski, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Doug Pedersen, Brady Quinn, Kevin Thompson and Spergon Wynn. This baker's dozen represents all the quarterbacks that have appeared under center for Cleveland this past decade. Therein explains its 67-104 record. And that's why Mike Holmgren has taken over control of the team. His first move was his biggest when he opted to keep Eric Mangini on the sidelines. Anderson and Quinn are gone with Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace battling for the starting berth. Rest assured, when it's all said and done, Colt McCoy will be calling signals and Holmgren will get this mess turned around. A solid draft and crafty free agent signings have kick-started a new era. Once the QB breeze has subsided, Browns Stadium will again become the Dawg Pound we've learned to love. Chew on that for a while.
PLAY AGAINST: at Buffalo (12/12)

PITTSBURGH TEAM THEME: DRINK LIKE A CHAMPION
What's with the water in Pittsburgh these days? Three years ago two players get arrested for running juvenile prostitution and home invasion robbery. Two years ago two more players are jailed on assault charges. Former Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes was arrested on trespassing and drug possession charges before finally being traded and then suspended for four games for substance abuse by the NFL. And then there's the other Super Bowl MVP, Ben Roethlisberger. After a second charge in as many years of sexual assault, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell informed Big Ben that he'd be out of action the first six weeks this season. There's no truth to the rumor that Big Ben appeared relieved when he said, "I'm pretty sure Commish was talking about me playing football." Until the suspension, the Steelers were prepared to start the season with 21 of their 22 starters back. Remember this: Pittsburgh lost six games SU as a favorite in 2009, the most of any team in the league.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. New England (11/14)

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2010 AFC SOUTH DIVISION PREVIEW

Don't look now, but it appears as if the South may be rising again. Let's put it another way. When quarterbacks go into battle they are the team's Generals. Some are five-star material (Peyton Manning, 99.9 QB rating last season), others are in the process of earning their stripes (Matt Schaub, 98.6 QB rating in 2009).

As a result, teams in this division won more battles than they lost last season with Jacksonville the only losing team in the division (7-9).

Furthermore, since their inception in 2002, the AFC South has been a home dog haven, with its members going 50-31-1 ATS, including 18-6 when hosting a sub .500 opponent.

In addition, this division has not backed down a lick when squaring off against the big-bad NFC East, as they do this season, having gone 11-5 SU and ATS as a host, including 8-2 SU and ATS when the South has at least one victory on the season.

In this business, the bottom line is… the bottom line. The bottom line here: Look for the South to continue its surge in 2010.

Note: Designated "Play On' and "Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: THE "P' WORD
No longer a maiden, Houston broke on through to the other side when it recorded the first winning season in its franchise history last year. The signs were there and they delivered. The hiring of DC Dom Capers, and eight-win seasons the previous two years, put the Texans in position to succeed. Now they hunger for more. Granted, along with the Titans, they will face the toughest opponent strength of schedule in the league in 2010. But with QB Matt Schaub coming into his own, and possessing arguably the best receiver in the league in Andre Johnson (topped the league in receiving yards last year with 1,569), it's only logical that a 9-win team that suffered only one loss by more than eight points in 2009, would be pointing to the p - - - - - - s. (Hint: it's an 8-letter word never heard in this area during this era). If they can't say it, at least they can visualize it. PLAY ON: as dog off BB losses vs. Jacksonville (11/14)

INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: JOCKEYING FOR A TITLE
With a dozen or more victories nine years running, it is no surprise to find the Colts installed as the pre-season favorite Super Bowl favorites. But, as you know from reading these pages, the bigger hurdle facing Peyton Manning and his mates is the dreaded "Super Bowl" loser jinx they will be infected with in 2010. Given the fact that seven of the nine SB losers this decade failed to return to the playoffs the following season (kudos to Kurt Warner and the Cardinals on overcoming this pestilence last year), it appears the Colts may be in need of booster shots in order to overcome this epidemic. That shot might be the confidence this team owns knowing it was riding a 14-0 record, along with 23 regular season wins a in a row, before they took a late-season dive against the Jets last year, opting to rest starters in preparation for the playoffs. It could be déjà vu all over again this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Tennessee (1/2)

JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: YOU DON'T KNOW JACK
Back-to-back losing seasons, including late season cave-ins both years, sent Jack Del Rio to the NFL draft with one thought in mind: beef up the "D.' After watching the Jags post declining numbers across the board on the defensive side of the ball three years in a row, Del Rio proceeded to pick off four defensive linemen in a row. Along with the additions of veteran free agent LB Kirk Morrison, Oakland's leading tackler the last five seasons (avg 126.5 tackles per year) and DE Aaron Kampman, a six-year starter with the Packers, the message was delivered loud and clear. The offense is in the capable hands of QB David Garrard and star RB Maurice Jones-Drew, aka "Pocket Hercules', arguably the most complete back in the league. While they are building a team for the future, Del Rio's goal is to win the division this year. What else would you expect from a coach that can't stand losing.
PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (12/12) – *KEY off BB losses

TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: THE YOUNG AND RESTLESS
After an 0-6 start behind fossil Kerry Collins last year, the Titans called on Vince Young and he delivered a much-needed remedy. Big time. An 8-2 conclusion to the 2009 season following the Bye Week stamped Young as the savior of this franchise. Not the team's best player, just its knight in shining armor. RB Chris Johnson, who rushed for a league high 2,006 yards last year, nearly 600 yards more than his closest competitor (Stephen Jackson), is straightforwardly the Titans' MVP. The Titans took a hit on the defensive line when they lost DE Kyle Vanden Bosch to free agency (Detroit) but made strides when they selected Derrick Morgan from Georgia Tech with their first pick in the NFL draft. Along with the Texans, Tennessee will face the toughest opponent strength of schedule in the league in 2010. If they don't shore up the defense (slipped 77 YPG in 2009), they'll likely care less about the rest of the slate.
PLAY ON: vs. Houston (12/19)

[bobby2]

2010 AFC WEST DIVISION PREVIEW

When the Denver Broncos selected Tim Terrific with its second pick in the first-round of this year's NFL draft, they issued a statement.

It said last year's 8-8 record was not acceptable, not after rookie coach Josh McDaniels shot out to a six-lap lead before a frightful 2-8 finish.

San Diego's third straight 2-3 start under Norv Turner was just a warm-up en route an 11-1 rush through the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Kansas City and Oakland were simply stuck in neutral most of the season and both ended the campaign on the losing side of the ledger for the third straight year.

It makes Turner's Chargers an overwhelming choice as the team to take the checkered flag in this division and a major frontrunner to make it to Jerry's World in February.

In closing, this note of caution: Before revving up with home teams in this division, you would be best advised to throttle down as AFC West hosts went 20-39-5 ATS this past decade in games versus division opponents with losing records, including a mind-boggling 2-16-1 ATS in an anticipated low-scoring contest when the Over/Under total in the game was 40 or fewer points.

Note: Designated ‘Play On' and ‘Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

DENVER
TEAM THEME: IN TIM WE TRUST
One of the best lines written about Denver drafting Tim Tebow in the first-round of the NFL draft this year was penned by Miami Herald columnist Greg Cote when he said, "I had not heard that many people talking about a white Bronco since Al Cowling was driving O.J. Simpson." Like him or not, the city of Denver is abuzz about Tebow wearing a Broncos uni. Whether he supplants Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback is an answer that only God knows at the moment. What we know is that Denver made huge forward strides on defense under first-year head coach Josh McDaniels last year, improving its numbers 60 YPG. The offense, though, slipped 54 YPG and took a hit when troubled WR Brandon Marshall was dispatched to Miami. The question is which Broncos team will we see in 2010? The one that started last season 6-0, or the one that finished up 2-8. Tim:15 just might end up having a say in the matter.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Houston (12/26)

KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: COLOR ME NEW
There is a massive rebuilding project going on in Kansas City these days and it's not limited to the new makeover at Arrowhead Stadium. Head coach Todd Haley and GM Scott Pioli made inroads on the field in 2009. The four wins (all as underdogs) last year doubled 2008's tally. They also outgained each of their final four foes to finish the season. Moreover, Haley contends QB Matt Cassel has grabbed the leadership reins of the 2010 Chiefs. "He's in here leading the pack every day," Haley said. "I mean, we can't keep him off the field. He's gathering the receivers any chance he can get. He has all the makings of being a solid quarterback in this league." Key offensive additions this year include RB Thomas Jones from the Jets and OG Ryan Lilja from the Colts. Meanwhile, S Eric Berry may prove to be the best pick in this year's draft. The fresh coat of paint may appear temporary but at least the peeling has stopped. PLAY ON: as dog vs. San Diego (9/13) – *KEY + 4 pts or more

OAKLAND
TEAM THEME: WHO'S MINDING THE STORE?
Let's do the math. 2009 7th overall pick WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: 9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 TD. 2008 4th overall pick RB Darren McFadden: 865 rushing yards, 5 TD's. 2007 1st overall pick QB Jamarcus Russell: 18 TD passes, 23 Interceptions and a QB Rating of 65.2. Those are the career marks of Al Davis' last three first round choices, with Russell (7-18 as a starter) being cut loose this spring. Folks, if Davis was a contestant on ‘The Apprentice' he'd hear Donald Trump shouting YOU'RE FIRED! So pathetic were the Raiders they became the first NFL team since 1960 to produce four straight sub-200 yard games. A positive was the acquisition of QB Jason Campbell from the Redskins. It should also be noted that the Raiders had some of the best off-season work this year that they've done in ages. And speaking of ages, if only Davis had taken the time to major in math, who knows where they'd be today?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas City (11/7) – *KEY as favorite

SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: TURNER ROUND
We've got to admit, we were wrong on our assessment of Norv Turner. It was easy to take potshots at him when he came aboard three years ago. After all, here was a coach that, previously in his NFL career, was 21-44-1 SU and 23-41-2 ATS in division play. Since coming to San Diego, he's turned it completely around, as his Chargers averaged nearly 12 wins a season while going 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against division foes. And to set the table in 2010, the Bolts will benefit from a soft schedule when they take on the 3rd easiest slate in the league. A strong draft should go a long way in supplanting former Pro Bowlers LaDainian Tomlinson and CB Antonio Cromartie. Finally, keep this thought in mind when San Diego takes on their NFC counterparts this season: The visiting team in Chargers/NFC West games is 16-11 SU and 19-8 ATS. Don't get nervous. Norv is in charge.
PLAY ON: as dog at Indianapolis (11/28

[bobby2]

2010 NFC EAST DIVISION PREVIEW

Long considered the 'beast' of all NFL divisions, the NFC East features no less than three Pro Bowl quarterbacks.

The division is also the top-heavy favorite with an average 8.5 'win total' for the season per team. Does this mean all four teams are playoff bound in 2010? That's doubtful, but they might insist that three's company by season's end.

No team appeared in more playoff games during the past decade than Philadelphia. The Eagles 18 post-season games tied New England for league honors. Together, the NFC East combined to play 35 games in the playoffs in the 2000's, easily the best in the league.

These 'beasts' rewarded their backers this past decade whenever they went out as road dogs off a SU and ATS win, going 54-26-1 ATS, including 27-8-1 when taking six or more points.

While they may beat up on each other, these NFC East creatures of habit certainly command the respect of players alike.

Note: Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

DALLAS
TEAM THEME: GREAT EXPECTATIONS
Despite taking on the toughest non-division slate in the NFL this season, owner Jerry Jones is overly optimistic when stating he wants his club to be the first team to play in a Super Bowl in its own stadium. The Super Bowl will be played at Cowboys Stadium in 2011. "I'm like a kid when you ask me what I want for Christmas," Jones said. "I want it so bad, I'm scared to talk about it." Thus, the onus falls on head coach Wade Phillips who is once again suddenly on the hot seat. Helping cool matters was the selection of WR Dez Bryant in the first-round of this year's draft. Phillips gushes when talking about Bryant, calling him the best-looking rookie he's seen in his 33 years of coaching. QB Tony 'Pip' Romo will look to close out the saga behind an offense that improved by leaps and bounds last year. The script has been written. Let's just hope Dickens doesn't need to rewrite the ending.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Detroit (11/21)

NY GIANTS
TEAM THEME: STANDING 8-COUNT
If we didn't know better, we'd swear Bill Parcells orchestrated this year's Giants draft. That's because, for the first time since 1986, New York drafted four defensive players with their first four picks. It's usually what happens the following season when a playoff team, after opening a season with five straight wins, watches its defense go soft en route to a wobbly 8-8 conclusion – including a pair of season-ending defeats in which they were outscored by 69 points. Residing in the ferociously tough NFC East, Tom Coughlin's biggest free agent signings were safeties Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant. Together they should help shore up a defensive backfield that was torched the final 11 games of the campaign when they allowed 263 PYPG, as opposed to the 105 PYPG surrendered in the 5-0 start. The rest falls on the shoulders of QB Eli Manning and an offense that actually improved a tad last year. Look for Big Blue to bounce back up off the mat in 2010.
PLAY ON: as dog at Philadelphia (11/21)

PHILADELPHIA
TEAM THEME: OPERATION OVERHAUL
After going 0-5 SU and ATS against five playoff teams last year, Andy Reid knew a change was in order. And with one swift, sweep of the broom QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and a handful of other starters were swept out the door. The keys to the offense have been handed to QB Kevin Kolb, a rhythm passer who gets the ball out quickly and is extremely accurate. As a result, the Eagles likely will become a more traditional West Coast offense, heavier on short and intermediate routes like slants, curls and crossing patterns that will give receivers opportunities for yards after the catch. All of which promises to open up more opportunities for promising young WR's DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Meanwhile, Philly's vaunted defense has taken on a new look and a new attitude. A strong draft featured five defensive players with first five choices, tutored by ex-NFL head coach Dick Jauron. And if the overhaul doesn't work, you ask? There's always Michael Vick.
PLAY ON: as dog at NY Giants (12/19)

WASHINGTON
TEAM THEME: THE FUTURE IS NOW
Dan Snyder realized that after losing to the lowly Lions (Detroit was riding a 19-game losing streak and the Skins were 22-2 SU in the series since 1968) that it was time to cut the cord with Jim Zorn. Future Hall of Fame coach Mike Shanahan was signed and as a result a new makeover has taken place. After trading for 33-year-old quarterback Donovan McNabb and signing eight free agents who will be at least 30 come November, Shanahan contends it was "totally false" that he and general manager Bruce Allen were trying to recapture the magic formula that the latter's father brought to Washington from 1971-77. Meanwhile, just half of the 22 regulars from Washington's 2007 playoff team, the last to play for Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs, are on the roster. Before catching 'Hall of Fame' coach fever, you should know that during his first year as a coach with both Oakland and Denver, Shanahan was 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 5 or less points.
PLAY ON: at NY Giants (12/5)

[bobby2]

2010 NFC NORTH DIVISION PREVIEW

The ‘Black and Blue' is down to two... that is two winning teams with four combined playoff appearances the last three years. Somewhere, Vince Lombardi is rolling over in his grave.

Ironically, the two winning teams, Green Bay and Minnesota, have had one common denominator and that is Brett Favre. With his status (surprise) still up in the air, the division is just that – up for grabs.

This year the NFC North meets the AFC South in interleague play, a situation that has not fared well for the guys the Northerners as they are just 11-22 straight-up all-time in these frays

In addition, the NFC North has struggled during the final four games of the season, going 100-143-6 ATS since its inception, including 7-27-1 ATS when laying points.

If it sounds like this division is dying a slow death it's because they are. RIP.

Note: Designated ‘Play On' and ‘Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

CHICAGO
TEAM THEME: SAY(ERS) IT AIN'T SO
According to former Bears Hall of Fame RB Gale Sayers, the Bears are in for a long season in 2010. "(QB Jay) Cutler hasn't done the job. (LB Brian) Urlacher, I don't know how good he's going to be coming back. He's 33 years old... They haven't done a good job. If Lovie doesn't do it this year, I think he's gone.” Whew. While Sayers admits he lives and dies with the team, his comments hit the team harder than the rash of injuries did to the defense last year. The addition of Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers will help. OC Mike Martz is excited about his team's prospects this year. “I love our receivers. I think that our receiver corps will be the strength of this team. You can put that in granite. I can promise you that one... this will be the strength of this football team.” As far as Chicago fans are concerned, they are hoping Sayers' mouth runs for more yards than his legs ever did.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Green Bay (9/27) – *KEY if +3.5 pts or more

DETROIT
TEAM THEME: SUPPORTING STAFF
The Lions were busy acquiring personnel in the off-season in hopes of protecting franchise QB Matthew Stafford. Stafford suffered three injuries last year and threw 20 interceptions as a rookie. But head coach Jim Schwartz points out all three injuries came when the Lions were trailing in the fourth quarter, and many picks came when the Lions put Stafford in bad situations. “It was basically taking hits because he was trying to do something that he shouldn't have to do being down 17 points with four minutes left or something like that," Schwartz said. "So staying healthy is important for him, and that will help him take care of the football.” The Lions filled two very big needs by getting defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and running back Jahvid Best with their two first-round picks. They also surrounded Suh with strong support personnel in Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. No longer will opposing quarterbacks be allowed to carve the Lions secondary like the Thanksgiving Day turkeys they resemble.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. New England (11/25)

GREEN BAY
TEAM THEME: CATCH US IF YOU CAN
There was a lot to like about the Packers in 2009. Owners of the top ranked rush defense and best in the league in turnover margin last year, Green Bay made huge strides across the board, improving from six wins to 11, despite an offensive line that was ravaged with injuries. Bad news for the rest of the league is head coach Mike McCarthy really likes his team's chances in 2010. "We're a better football team in 2010 today than we have been in the past... I really like the way our football team looks on paper; I like the individuals that we have added,” was McCarthy's assessment of the team after the NFL Draft. Keep an eye on 6th round, 24-year RB James Starks of Buffalo who hasn't played in a year-and-a-half. If healthy, he could be a steal. The bottom line is as long as QB Aaron Rodgers remains upright, the Pack is the team to beat in the NFC North.
PLAY ON: vs. Miami (10/17)

MINNESOTA
TEAM THEME: MAYBE, MAYBE NOT
You knew it was coming. When Bret Favre tossed his Super Bowl-denying pick in the final moments of last year's championship game against New Orleans, it was almost like O.J. Simpson waiting on news that he would eventually land in jail. It was expected. For all the good Minnesota accomplished in 2009 – including the most wins since 1998 – the Vikings fell one horrifying play short of making it to SB XLIV. Obviously the big concern is whether No. 4 decides he wants more and is willing to come back for another season in 2010. We can talk all about the forward progress the Vikes made last year, such as going 3-0 SU and ATS at home from December out after having been 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in three previous season under Brad Childress... or Minny's mighty 10-2 ‘In The Stats' log during its final 12 games of the campaign. But the fact of the matter is everything centers around the Ol' Wrangler's return.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/9)

[bobby2]

2010 NFC SOUTH DIVISION PREVIEW

If you are a vegan chances are you are likely a devotee of the NFC West. If you like barbeque, Cajun jambalaya and southern fried chicken, then the NFC South is sure to satisfy your palate.

It's in this division they've been cooking up a winning recipe a lot lately. Atlanta, Carolina and Tampa Bay made playoff appearances three times each this past decade, while New Orleans won last year's cook-off when they stunned Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV.

Incidentally, life on the division road has been particularly kind to members of this loop as evidenced by its 49-46 SU and 58-37 ATS mark since the league re-aligned divisions in 2002. When taking to the division road and seeking revenge they are 29-16 ATS, including 18-6 when facing a .500 or less opponent.

And when they take on the AFC North this campaign they'll do so knowing this Mason-Dixon battle has seen the underdog go 13-4-2 ATS in the last 19 skirmishes.

Yes, there's lots of tantalizing hors d'oeuvres to munch on when sizing up this division and it's pretty much finger licking good.

Note: Designated ‘Play On' and ‘Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

ATLANTA
TEAM THEME: BURN BABY BURN
Head coach Mike Smith was hot under the collar when his Falcons fell one-game short of making it back to the playoffs two years in a row last season. Completing the first-ever back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history wasn't enough to satisfy Smith's driving desire. Had star QB Matt Ryan not gone down to injury early in December (0-2 without him), successive playoff appearances would likely have been in the offing. In addition, RB Michael Turner missed five games last season while managing to rush for 871 yards. The 240-pound burner is a difference-maker when healthy. On the defensive front, the hope is that former Pro Bowl DE John Abraham returns to 2008 form when he had 16.5 sacks. This we know for sure: Smith does not condone losing. It's one reason why the Falcons are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in games off a loss under his lead. Now that's a flammable warning you need to heed.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/26) – *KEY off a loss

CAROLINA
TEAM THEME: FOX TROT
After playing in SB XXXIX in 2003 and making it back to the NFC championship game in 2005, the Panthers have been on cruise control, appearing in only one post-season game since. It has fans on edge and head coach John Fox on the run. Despite averaging nearly 9.5 wins per season in his nine-year tenure with Carolina, Fox is suddenly on shaky ground. As a result, a major roster overhaul is at hand. Of the 85 players on hand at a spring minicamp, 36 weren't with the team for the final game of the 2009 season. QB Jake Delhomme (Cleveland) was cut and five-time Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers (Chicago) was allowed to leave in free agency. The four quarterbacks on hand have a combined eight NFL starts, with rookie Jimmy Clausen challenging Matt Moore for the starting job. For a coach entering the last year of his contract and coming off an 8-8 season, it's time to strike up the band.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (10/3)

NEW ORLEANS
TEAM THEME: HAIL SATAN
When a team that had a total of two post-season victories the previous 42 years goes on to win three playoff games in the same season, including a coveted Super Bowl championship, we'd call that a crowning achievement. Not to say the Saints cut a deal with the Devil, but blessed they were for sure in their Super Bowl run. New Orleans trailed 24-10 at Miami before storming back to win. Down 11 at the half against Carolina, the Aint's rallied to win by 10. And of course the classic overtime thriller against the Vikings in the NFC title game. Drew Brees refused to lose and as a result the Crescent City came full circle in its comeback over Hurricane Katrina. But as years of experience have taught us, there's always a price to pay if ever the names ‘Satan' or ‘Super Bowl Champion' are in the discussion. Try as they may, the Saints may be double-cursed in 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Tampa Bay (1/2) – *KEY -7 pts or more

TAMPA BAY
TEAM THEME: BUC ‘EM
Let's face it. With 18 undrafted free agents on the 53-man roster, Raheem Morris was a dead man walking in his rookie season last year. What he did manage to salvage out of a three-win season was plenty, though. Wins in two of the three final games of the season, including an overtime victory over Super Bowl champion New Orleans (as 14-point underdogs) topped the list. So did the fact that the Bucs went 3-6 behind QB Josh Freeman, a quantum leap over the 0-7 start they suffered before he was inserted into the lineup. Freeman has all the physical attributes and is a workaholic. He may not carry the high profile of Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, the two highly touted QB's drafted ahead of him in the 2008 draft, but he could care less. Like Morris, all he's looking to do is improve. Behind a super draft, look for the Bucs to ignore the critics and begin the climb back up the ladder.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. St. Louis (10/24)

[bobby2]

2010 NFC WEST DIVISION PREVIEW

The days of the wild, wild West are long gone and in the rear view mirror. Hall of Famers Joe Montana, Steve Young and Jerry Rice have been replaced by the likes of Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Leinhart and Larry Fitzgerald in today's NFC West.

To illustrate exactly how much of a drop off this division has suffered, consider this: In the 1980's the NFC West was recognized as a road monster, with teams from this loop going 176-127-6 ATS away from home, including 114-80-4 in non division games and 20-4-1 in road frays when the Over/Under total was 47 or higher points.

In the same, identical roles, the 2000's contingent was 146-191-12 ATS on the highway, including 76-126-8 ATS outside the division and 10-24 when the Over/Under total was 47 or more points.

What a remarkable drop-off. From the Hall of Fame to the Hall of Shame.

The rebuilding has started, with Pete Carroll jumping over to Seattle from USC and St. Louis pinning its hopes on Sam Bradford with the No. 1 pick of this year's draft.

We're betting on it being the mild, mild West for a while. At least until enough of Carroll's Trojans find their way to Seattle.

Note: Designated ‘Play On' and ‘Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

ARIZONA
TEAM THEME: KURTESY CALL
Shaking off the stigma of being a Super Bowl-loser last season, the Cardinals became only the second such team in nine years to make it back to the playoffs the following season in 2009. While that feat put a smile on Ken Whisenhunt's face, the loss of future Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner to retirement is another matter. A lukewarm draft yielded Fordham QB John Skelton in Round 5, meaning it's finally time for Matt Leinart to stand and deliver. He completed 66% of his passes last year in pinch-hit and mop-up roles, but will need to improve on a 14/20 career TD/INT ratio. Otherwise, import Derek Anderson, a former Pro Bowler with Cleveland, will be barking signals. Tackling the softest strength of schedule in the league – along with the possibility that emerging RB Beanie Wells can inch his team over 100 rushing yards per game – Arizona's chances of returning to the playoffs will be like Warner's new life in a hammock… a breeze.
PLAY ON: vs. New Orleans (10/10) – *KEY off a loss

ST. LOUIS
TEAM THEME: SAM THE MAN
Hearts were racing when the Rams designated Sam Bradford as their quarterback of the future with the first selection in this year's NFL draft. It marked the second year in a row that a QB groomed for the NFL by quarterback coach-guru Terry Shea (Detroit's Matthew Stafford last year) was chosen with the coveted top pick. "He certainly has all the tools to be a franchise player in this league," said Shea about Bradford. He'll be protected by LT Jason Smith, the No. 2 overall selection in last year's draft. Bradford's 175.6 career passer rating ranks No. 1 all time in college football history, making the choice a safe one. The good news is Bradford will be facing the 2nd easiest strength of schedule in the league in 2010. The bad news is the Rams are 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS the first four games of the season the last three years. If the break-in process doesn't do them in, Stan Musial could be taking a back seat to a new hometown hero.
PLAY ON: as dog at Detroit (10/10)

SAN FRANCISCO
LIVE BY THE SWORD
The 49ers did an impressive job of improving their team this off-season, turning former weaknesses into potential strengths for the coming season. QB David Carr is a solid backup for Alex Smith, who will be operating with the same offensive coordinator for the first time in six years. WR/KR Ted Ginn Jr. adds the kind of speed San Francisco hasn't witnessed in a long while. Using their two first-round picks on OT Anthony Davis and OG Mike Iupati instantly upgraded the offensive line. A strong draft was cemented when S Taylor Mays of USC became available in a 2nd round steal. And MVP LB Patrick Willis topped the league in tackles in 2009 with 114. There is a lot to like about the makeup of Mike Singletary's squad. And there is also a lot to like about Singletary. He's been a winner at every level of his NFL career and it appears he'll have his team playoff bound faster than you can say Samurai Mike.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. New Orleans (9/20)

SEATTLE
TEAM THEME: ON THEIR TROJAN HORSES
The Pete Carroll era kicks off in Seattle this season and it couldn't happen soon enough. After winning nine games in two years, the Seahawks opened their wallets and made the biggest hire in franchise history when then lured Carroll away of USC. Carroll's first task was assembling an all-star coaching staff, including eight former USC staff members, and then overseeing a draft that proved super, with any one of his first three choices potential Rookie of the Year candidates. The players that Carroll has brought in to resurrect this program, along with the players already on the roster, will make for an explosive football team, especially on offense. QB Charlie Whitehurst was acquired form San Diego and will battle Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job. Off-season additions of WR's Mike (ex-Trojan) and Reggie Williams and draft day acquisitions of RB's LenDale White (ex-Trojan) and Leon Washington are immediate upgrades.Yes, it appears this program should be riding high, sooner than later.
PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (12/5)