Playoff Stats , Trends And Notes : ...

[Kramer]

Are the Four NFL Bye Teams Beatable?


This is the eternal question every season, yet this season seems to hold special significance with the apparent disparity wider then Bill Parcell’s ego. New England, Indianapolis, Dallas and Green Bay were head and shoulders above the crowd during the regular season, will that continue in the conference semi-final round or is one or more primed for an unsuspecting upset.


Starting with the facts, the NFC has been the conference most likely to play to form in the last decade, with the top seeds having won 17 of 20 games played on these teams home fields.
Only the 2006 and 2002 Bears, plus the 2004 Rams have failed to make to the conferences championship games.


For what its worth, this failure has happen every other even number year of late and seeing this is 2008, well the possibility would hypothetically exist.
Wagering on these teams is a less sure venture, with the number one and two seeds a pedestrian 11-8-1 against the spread.


The AFC has what would be considered the two best teams in football with the Patriots and the Colts. This conference also has greater depth than there counterpart and could provide some really interesting matchups if the wild card round holds to form.

The AFC has been far more volatile this round with twice as many outright upsets compared to the NFC. Here six different lower seeds without rest and without home field advantage have moved on to conference title tilts. For those looking to bet the chalk in the conference semi-finals, understand the actual spread records of the favorites is 9-10-1 ATS the last 10 years.


With Tom Brady at the helm of possibly the greatest team ever, it’s hard to overcome an offense that is first in all these categories: points per game (36.8), total offense (411.2), yards per play (6.3), yards per point (11.2), passing yards (295.7) and yards per attempt (8.1). The defense is unfairly compared to the offense, which is difficult as it ranks the all-time best.

The defense is big and physical, though somewhat slow, especially at the linebacker positions. The approach to beating New England is having a running game and short passing game that keeps their defense on the field and Brady and company off it. In the Pats closest games, it appeared the defense tired in the later stages of the third and early fourth quarters.

Besides Brady working his magic, what was seen later in these Pats ballgames was safety Rodney Harrison walking up along the line of scrimmage and was almost literally making all the plays.


If a team like Jacksonville would have a lead in the later stages of the game, Harrison has to be accounted for and teams have to attack vacated area. With the exception of Baltimore, the toughest games the Patriots had were against teams that scored into the 20’s.


This is a cliché, but to beat Bill Belichick’s team, you must play 60 minutes to finish the job, nobody has
INDY is a strong home team, with losses coming to New England (no embarrassment) and throw away season finale to Tennessee. In the last four years the Colts have made the playoffs, they have only hosted this game once; in 2006 and lost to eventual champion Pittsburgh as the top seed.


Indianapolis still scores 28.1 points a game, which is second highest total in this five year window with Peyton Manning at the controls. The Colts are a more physical team then in prior seasons, having developed that approach almost overnight by how they played in last year’s postseason. The way to attack Indianapolis is strong pass rush.

When Manning’s gets heat up the center, he tends to drift to his left making him more vulnerable to making bad throws, as his feet and shoulders are no longer squared up.


If this can be accomplished, the opponent must have corners that can stick to wide receivers, so not to help bailout Manning. A team has to take away the Colts running game, forcing them to be more one dimensional. Running the ball and keeping the score down keeps Manning on the sidelines.
If he isn’t in rhythm, as good as Manning is, he is less patient than Brady.

Cowboys limp into the postseason 2-2 and have not covered a spread since beating Green Bay at home on November 29. The Cowboys should have lost at Detroit, as the Lions played conservative late and lost 28-27. Everything is out of kilter for Dallas, which makes you wonder if Wade Phillips easy going approach is working against him, instead of for him.
The Tony Romo magic has dissipated, as his accuracy has diminished in conjunction with the Dallas running game. Take away the Cowboys pass rush and the secondary can beat picked apart.



What is hard to get a read on about the Packers are the various areas that appear to be weakness. The defensive line has been thinned due to injury. The starting point as to when this occurred is obvious, with week 10 and the Carolina game. Opponents have averaged 127.8 yard per game rushing the next six games, compared to allowing 92.8 points per game in the first nine weeks when the full rotation of players was in place. As Green Bay slid in recent years the old Lambeau

Field mystique went with it. A portion of the luster was restored with 7-1 record, covering six times this season. Prior to 2002, the Packers had never lost a playoff game, yet in the last three home postseason encounters, the Green and Gold lost to Atlanta and Mike Vick 27-7, needed overtime to defeat Seattle 33-27 and were plastered 31-17 by Minnesota in 2005. Favre dreams of having John Elway exit from professional football, winning a Super Bowl and retiring.





Seattle at Green Bay


SEA 9th OFF; GB 11th DEF
SEA 20th RUN; GB 14th VS. RUN
SEA 8th PASS; GB 12th VS. PASS
SEA 9th PTS; GB 6th PTS ALLOWED
GB 2nd OFF; SEA 15th DEF
GB 21st RUN; SEA 12th VS. RUN
GB 2nd PASS; SEA 19th VS. PASS
GB 4th PTS; SEA 6th PTS ALLOWED
SEA 5th TO/TA; GB 10th TO/TA



Packers, who will be playing their first postseason game since 2004, attempting to win their first playoff contest since 2003 and reach the NFC Championship for the first time since 1997...
Green Bay's most recent playoff win was a 33-27 overtime thriller against Seattle in a 2003 Wild Card Playoff...



Seahawks vying to advance to the NFC Championship for the second time in three years...Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren guided Green Bay from 1992 through 1998...
Seahawks receiver Deion Branch (calf) expected to return after missing the last two games...
Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (thigh) expected to be limited in practice this week...
Packers placed guard Junius Coston (calf) on season-ending injured reserve last week...


Green Bay wide receiver Koren Robinson played for Seattle from 2001 through 2004, and will be facing his former team for the first time...
Including playoffs, the Seahawks are 0-3 at Lambeau Field since last winning there in 1999.

Packers coach Mike McCarthy was last involved in a playoff game in 2000, when he served as offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints.



SEA is 3-5 on the road this season, compared to 8-1 at home.
SEA last had a playoff meeting with GB in a wild-card game during the 2003 season, which GB won in OT, 33-27.
SEA’s LBs had 35 of the team’s 76 tackles last week in a 35-14 win over WAS.
SEA has won just 1 road playoff game in its history and hasn’t won a road playoff game since it beat MIA in 1983.
SEA QB Matt Hasselbeck has thrown more than 1 TD pass in 10 of 17 games this season.



GB QB Brett Favre is 7-2 in playoff games at Lambeau Field.
GB had more than 83 yards rushing just twice in its first 8 games, but had at least 100 yards rushing in 7 of its last 8 games.
GB is 7-1 at home this season.
GB went 3-1 against playoff teams in the regular season.
GB WR Donald Driver hasn’t scored a TD since Week Three and has just 2 TDs this season.
Playoff teams with byes are 5-11 ATS since 2003 (2-6 since 2005).
Seahawks are 6-11 ATS on the road since 2006.
Packers are 11-7 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

SEA is 7-2 ATS L9... SEA is 6-13-1 ATS L20 road games...
SEA is 4-1 ATS L5 playoff games... SEA is 4-0 ATS L4 Jan. games...
SEA is 9-4 ATS L13 games played on a grass field... SEA is 5-2 to the OVER L7 games vs. NFC North... SEA is 17-8 to the OVER L25 road games...
GB is 1-4-1 ATS L6 home games vs. SEA...
GB is 12-3 ATS L15... GB is 6-1 ATS L7 home games...
GB is 9-2 ATS L11 games played on a grass field... GB is 4-1 ATS L5 vs. NFC West...
GB is 6-1 to the OVER L7... GB is 8-3 to the OVER L11 games vs. NFC.



Jacksonville at New England


JAX 7th OFF; NE 4th DEF
JAX 2nd RUN; NE 10th VS. RUN
JAX 17th PASS; NE 6th VS. PASS
JAX 6th PTS; NE 4th PTS ALLOWED
NE 1st OFF; JAX 12th DEF
NE 13th RUN; JAX 11th VS. RUN
NE 1st PASS; JAX 15th VS. PASS
NE 1st PTS; JAX 10th PTS ALLOWED
NE 3rd TO/TA; JAX 6th TO/TA
New England trying to become the first team since '72 Miami Dolphins to win its first 17 games of the season...
Patriots haven't lost since 2006 AFC Championship at Indianapolis, and are 12-0 at home since losing there to the Jets last Nov. 12th...
Jaguars, who are trying to advance to AFC Championship for first time since 1999, won first playoff game since '99 in last week's 31-29 triumph at Pittsburgh...
Jaguars are 0-4 in New England all- time, including a 28-3 loss in their last visit there, for a 2005 AFC First- Round Playoff...
Patriots' Bill Belichick and Tom Brady were named NFL Coach of the Year and league MVP, respectively, earlier this week...
Jacksonville has scored 24 or more points in 11 consecutive games...Jaguars tackle John Henderson (hamstring) and safety Reggie Nelson (thigh) expected to be limited in practice this week, and linebacker Mike Peterson (hand) will miss his eighth consecutive game...
Jacksonville running back Fred Taylor was named to his first career Pro Bowl on Tuesday.

The last team to lose in the playoffs following an undefeated regular season was the 1942 Chicago Bears, which was a 14-6 loser to the Washington Redskins in the NFL Championship.



The last time JAX and NE met in the postseason, NE won 28-3.
JAX QB David Garrard threw 2 INTs in the first-round vs. PIT, which was just 1 more than he threw during the regular season.
The last time JAX made it to the second round was in the 1999-2000 season.
JAX sacked PIT QB Ben Roethlisberger 6 times last week, with every sack coming from a D-lineman.
JAX beat PIT despite being outgained by 101 yards.
NE broke MIN’s single-season scoring record by 33 points.
NE has won the AFC East and advanced to the second round of the playoffs for the fifth straight season.
NE had 8 players voted to the Pro Bowl, compared to 0 for JAX.
NE hasn’t lost at home since Nov. 12, 2006 (17-14 loss to NYJ).
NE last lost a home playoff game in 1978 (31-14 to HOU).

Jaguars are 9-3 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
Patriots are 38-25 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
Patriots are 16-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
Tom Brady is 97-26 as a starter (76-45 ATS). Tom Brady is 12-2 in the playoffs (8-6 ATS).
JAC is 1-5 ATS L6 vs. NE... JAC is 7-2 ATS L9... JAC is 6-3 ATS L9 road games...
JAC is 13-6 ATS L19 games as an underdog... JAC is 10-6 ATS L16 games when playing against a team with a winning record... JAC is 8-1 to the OVER L9 road games...



JAC is 7-1 to the OVER L8 games as an underdog...
JAC is 13-1 to the OVER L14 games when playing with 6 or less days rest...
NE is 1-5 ATS L6... NE is 7-3 ATS *** home games...
NE is 14-6 ATS L20 Jan. games... NE is 15-7 ATS L22 games played on turf... NE is 16-6 to the OVER L22... NE is 8-3 to the OVER L11 home games... NE is 10-4 to the OVER L14 games as a favorite of 10 or more points



San Diego at Indianapolis



SD 20th OFF; IND 3rd DEF
SD 7th RUN; IND 15th VS. RUN
SD 26th PASS; IND 2nd VS. PASS
SD 5th PTS; IND 1st PTS ALLOWED
IND 5th OFF; SD 14th DEF
IND 18th RUN; SD 16th VS. RUN
IND 6th PASS; SD 14th VS. PASS
IND 3rd PTS; SD 5th PTS ALLOWED
IND 2nd TO/TA; SD 1st TO/TA



Rematch of a Week 10 game played in San Diego, a 23-21 Chargers win...
Colts quarterback Peyton Manning threw a career-high six interceptions in that game, and kicker Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal that would have put Indianapolis ahead in the final two minutes...




San Diego trying to advance to the AFC Championship for the first time since 1994...
Indianapolis trying to reach AFC Championship for the third time in the last five years...
San Diego scored a 26-17 road upset in its most recent visit to Indianapolis, in Week 15 of the 2005 season, a game that handed Indy its first loss of the year after a 13-0 start...



Chargers tight end Antonio Gates (foot) considered questionable for Sunday...
Indianapolis wide receiver Marvin Harrison (knee) expected to play..
.San Diego return man Darren Sproles had a punt return and kickoff return for touchdowns against Indy in Week 10, becoming just the second player in NFL history to score both ways in the same quarter..
.Colts safety Bob Sanders was named NFL Defensive Player of the Year earlier in the week.


The Colts won their only postseason meeting with the Chargers all- time, claiming a 35-20 win on the road in a 1995 AFC First-Round Playoff.




SD has won the last two meetings with IND, including a 26-17 win at IND in Week 15 of the 2005 season that ended the Colts’ undefeated season.
IND QB Peyton Manning and SD QB Philip Rivers combined for 8 INTS when the teams met in Week 10.


Manning is 4-2 as a starter at home in the playoffs.
SD held IND RB Joseph Addai to 22-56-0 in Week 10.
SD hasn’t advanced beyond the divisional round since the 1994 playoffs.
SD head coach Norv Turner is 2-1 all-time in the postseason.


Underdogs in both AFC divisional games last season won outright.
SD WRs Vincent Jackson and Chris McAlister combined for 11-235-1 vs. TEN last week.
SD converted 9-of-16 3rd downs vs. TEN.
IND P Hunter Smith finished last in the AFC in net punting (34.2).
Only three AFC teams (CIN, BUF, OAK) had less sacks than IND this season (28).

SD is 10-3 ATS L13 vs. IND... SD is 10-3 ATS L13 vs. AFC... SD is 11-2 ATS L13 vs. AFC South... SD is 21-7 ATS L28 dome games... SD is 34-17 ATS L51 games played on turf... SD is 10-4 to the OVER L14 road games... SD is 9-2 to the UNDER L11 Jan. games... SD is 11-5 to the UNDER L16 games when playing against a team with a winning record...



IND is 1-10 ATS L11 home games vs. SD... IND is 7-3 ATS *** home games... IND is 15-8 ATS L23 games when playing against a team with a winning record... IND is 4-1 ATS L5 games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest... IND is 6-3 to the OVER L9 games vs. SD... IND is 12-6 to the UNDER L18 Jan. games... IND is 11-6 to the UNDER L17 playoff games.


N.Y. Giants at Dallas


NYG 16th OFF; DAL 9th DEF
NYG 4th RUN; DAL 6th VS. RUN
NYG 21st PASS; DAL 13th VS. PASS
NYG 14th PTS; DAL 13th PTS ALLOWED
DAL 3rd OFF; NYG 7th DEF
DAL 17th RUN; NYG 8th VS. RUN
DAL 4th PASS; NYG 11th VS. PASS
DAL 2nd PTS; NYG 17th PTS ALLOWED
DAL 8th TO/TA; NYG 26th TO/TA



Cowboys and Giants meeting in the playoffs for the first time since series began in 1960...
Dallas trying to beat the Giants for the third time this season, following a 45-35 home win in Week 1 and a 31-20 decision at Giants Stadium in Week 10...
Dallas seeking its first playoff win since 1996, and its first trip to the NFC Championship since 1995...


Cowboys wide receiver Terrell Owens (high ankle sprain) considered questionable for Sunday...
Dallas quarterback Tony Romo to make first playoff start since his botched hold of a field goal snap impacted last year's 21-20 loss at Seattle in an NFC First- Round playoff...


New York vying to reach NFC Championship for the first time since 2000...
Giants have won eight consecutive road games since their Week 1 loss at Dallas...


New York center Shaun O'Hara (knee) and cornerback Sam Madison (abdomen) both considered questionable after missing last week's 24-14 win over the Buccaneers...


Cowboys were 2-2 in their final four games, including losses to the Eagles (10-6) and Redskins (27-6)...Cowboys' Wade Phillips will serve as head coach in a playoff game for first time since "Music City Miracle" loss for his Bills against Titans in 1999 postseason.

Giants are 13-4 ATS on the road since 2006.

NFC No. 1 seeds are 15-4 ATS the previous 19 seasons in their first playoff game.


Wade Phillips is 0-3 in the playoffs;

Tom Coughlin is 5-6 and 1-2 with NYG.
NYG and DAL opened the season playing each other in Week 1 in Dallas and will meet there again. DAL won both contests this season, by scores of 45-35 and 31-20 in the rematch in Week 10 in the Meadowlands.



In the 91 meetings between the teams in their history, NYG and DAL have never met in the playoffs. And DAL never have beaten an opponent 3 times in a season.


While DAL rested last week with a first-round bye, NYG went on the road and beat TB in Tampa, 24-14. QB Eli Manning played well for the 2nd straight week.
DAL pressured Manning all game in Week 10 (five sacks for minus-42 yards).
NYG’s line is down a man with C Shaun O’Hara (left knee) out and Grey Ruegamer in; OLT Dave Diehl left last week’s game with heat exhaustion but should play Sunday. Diehl did a nice job on Ware in the first contest but struggled some in the second.


NYG TE Jeremy Shockey was a big factor in the last meeting with 12 catches, but he is out for the season. Rookie replacement Kevin Boss has more than held his own with a 13.1 YPC average and 2 more receptions last week in the playoff win at TB.


NYG WR Plaxico Burress had 8-144-3 in the first game but was held to 4-24-0 in Week 10.
NYG WR Amani Toomer was terrific last week (7-74-1) with several first-down catches.
NYG RB Brandon Jacobs had 95 yards on 23 carries the last time vs. DAL. But NYG RB Ahmad Bradshaw, who played only special teams in the first two matchups, broke out with a 151-yard game in Week 16, and after suffering a calf injury and missing Week 17 he answered with 66 yards in the win over TB.
DAL QB Tony Romo has thrown eight TD passes in 52 attempts vs. the Giants this season.


In 9 career games against NYG, Terrell Owens has scored 11 TDs and averaged 97.9 yards per contest.
DAL RBs Julius Jones and Marion Barber were held to 3.6 yards per carry and 3 catches for minus-1 yard in the last meeting.

NYG are 5-11-1 ATS L17 road games vs. DAL... NYG are 7-1 ATS L8 road games...
NYG are 5-1 ATS L6 games played on turf... NYG are 9-3 ATS L12 games revenging a loss against opponent...


NYG are 7-1 to the UNDER L8 road games... NYG are 9-4 to the UNDER L13 road games vs. DAL...
DAL is 2-5-1 ATS L8 games vs. NYG... DAL is 1-4 ATS L5...
DAL is 6-10 ATS L16 vs. NFC East... DAL is 4-2 to the UNDER L6... DAL is 13-8 to the OVER L21 games when playing against a team with a winning record.



Play Under - Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent passing team (>=7.3 PYA) against an average


passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game (36-10 over the
last 10 seasons.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating=3*)

The situation’s record this season is: (0-0), L3 (13-2), L5 (18-3), Since 1983 (61-26)
JAC/NE UNDER

Sun. 1/13 4:30 PM: (109) NY Giants at (110) Dallas

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog, good
team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season (39-13 since 1983.) (75.0%, +24.7 units. Rating=3*)

The situation’s record this season is: (2-0), L3 (6-3), L5 (10-4), *** (17-5)
2 DAL -7.5

Sat. 1/12 4:30 PM: (101) Seattle at (102) Green Bay


Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY) - after a win by 21 or more
points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games (29-8 since 1983.) (78.4%, +20.2 units.
Rating=2*)
The situation’s record this season is: (0-1), L3 (4-2), L5 (7-3), *** (12-4)
SEA/GB UNDER

Sat. 1/13 1:00 PM: (107) San Diego at (108) Indianapolis
SAN DIEGO is 25-4 ATS (+20.6 Units) after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. The average score
was SAN DIEGO 23.3, OPPONENT 15.4 - (Rating = 5*)

Play On W/L
SD (+8.5)

Sun. 1/12 8:00 PM: (103) Jacksonville at (104) New England
Belichick is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the
season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.7, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 5*)

JAC-NE
Under 47.5
3 SEA-GB
Over 40

SD-IND
Under 46.5
By Winning Percentage
2 NE (-12)
3 SD (+8.5)

NYG-DAL
Under 47
By Net Units
2 NE (-12)

SEA-GB
Over 40
Sat. 1/12 4:30 PM: (101) Seattle at (102) Green Bay
GREEN BAY is 17-2 OVER (+14.8 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of
the season since 1992. The average score was GREEN BAY 27.9, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 4*)
Sat. 1/13 1:00 PM: (107) San Diego at (108) Indianapolis
SAN DIEGO is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was SAN DIEGO 21.4, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 4*)
Sun. 1/12 8:00 PM: (103) Jacksonville at (104) New England
Belichick is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of
the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 25.0, OPPONENT 11.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Sat. 1/13 1:00 PM: (107) San Diego at (108) Indianapolis
SAN DIEGO is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3
seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 32.4, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 4*)
Sun. 1/13 4:30 PM: (109) NY Giants at (110) Dallas
NY GIANTS are 80-50 UNDER (+25.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins since 1992. The average score was NY
GIANTS 19.3, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Sun. 1/12 8:00 PM: (103) Jacksonville at (104) New England
Belichick is 84-55 ATS (+23.5 Units) in all games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND
24.8, OPPONENT 18.0 - (Rating = 2*)
Sat. 1/12 4:30 PM: (101) Seattle at (102) Green Bay
GREEN BAY is 24-3 OVER (+20.7 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992. The
average score was GREEN BAY 28.6, OPPONENT 21.5 - (Rating = 5*)


Here are some general facts and poinstpread trends regarding action in
the Divisional Playoff round from recent years.

* The Divisional Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the
most lopsided scores as the teams that have earned the right to rest
through the Wildcard round have owned their visiting foes. In fact, the
average margin of victory in this round has been 13.9 PPG.

* The home team has been most dominant in winning games in the
Divisional Playoff round overall since ‘93, with a SU record of 45-15. Its
ATS mark of 30-28 (51.7%) trails the Wildcard Round though. However,
in the last six Divisional Playoff games, home teams are just 2-4 SU &
0-6 ATS!

* Sunday road teams in the divisional round have been a solid bet the last
few years, going 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS.
* Since ’93, only four NFC road teams have won straight up in the
divisional round against 26 losses.

* 5th and 6th seeds in the NFC are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their L11
games in this round. In the AFC, these same teams have enjoyed much
better success, 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS.


* Favorites of more than a touchdown are 22-4 SU & 16-9-1 ATS (64%)
in the Divisional Round since ’93.

* There has been only one home underdog in the last 13 years of
Divisional Round play, and that was in ’97 when host Carolina upended
Dallas 26-17 as a 3-point dog.

* The last seven home straight up wins and pointspread covers have
also been UNDER’s. The last five AFC Divisional Playoff games have also
gone UNDER the total.

* In the last eight Divisional Playoff games with totals of 40 or more, the
UNDER is 7-1. In games with pointspreads of 6-1/2 points or more, the
OVER is 21-12, with the home team producing on average 30.5 PPG.

Updated NFL Playoff Statistical Angles

Remember, although team statistics are just
one piece of a large puzzle a handicapper needs to put together to enjoy
success in the NFL Playoffs, they are an important piece, as they can often
signify tendencies and overall strength of the various teams. Here is a list
of the categories that we analyzed:
-Won-Lost Records
- Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game
-Scoring Differential
- Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
- Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Attempt
- Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Game
- Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Attempt
- Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Play
- Turnover Differential
Of the categories listed.

Here is a summary of those that produced the
most definitive results, those that won at better than a 55% rate ATS.

Along
with each angle, I’ve updated the records to include this past weekend’s
games and also listed the teams qualifying for that angle in this weekend’s
divisional playoffs.

Won-Lost Records:
- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) are 26-16
ATS (61.9%) in the playoffs since ’93. Record last week: 0-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend:
Green Bay, NewEngland
- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) and favored
in the range of 7-9.5 points are 11-5 ATS (68.8%) since ’93. Record last
week: 0-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay
- Since ’00, road teams in the playoffs that have a better or equal record to
the home team are 13-8 ATS (61.9%). Record last week: 1-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: None
- Over the last eight playoff seasons, home teams with a winning percentage
edge of .165 or more (16.5%) over their road opponent are 10-1 SU & 8-3
ATS (72.7%). Record last week: 0-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New
England

Scoring Statistics

Offensive Points Per Game
• Teams with an offensive points per game edge going into a playoff
game are 82-65 ATS, or 55.8% since ‘93. However, since ’00, that record
is just 43-39 ATS for 52.4%. Record last week: 3-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New
England, Indianapolis, Dallas


Rushing Statistics
Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
• Teams with a rushing yards per game edge on defense going into a
playoff game are 81-66 ATS, or 55.1% since ’93, showing that the ability to
stop the run outweighs offensive rushing attacks. Since ’00, that record is
47-36 ATS for 56.6%, showing the importance of a stout rush defense has
increased in recent years. Record last week: 2-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Seattle,
Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Dallas


Defensive Yards Per Rush
• Teams with a Yards Per Rush edge on defense going into a playoff
game are 76-58 ATS, or 56.7% since ’93, again showing that the ability
to stop the run outweighs any offensive rushing numbers. Since ’00, that
record is 45-35 ATS for 56.3%, showing that defensive YPR has indeed
proven a key stat to keep an eye on in recent postseasons. Record last
week: 1-3
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Seattle,
Jacksonville, Indianapolis, NY Giants


Passing Statistics
Offensive Passing Yards Per Game
• Teams with a passing yards per game edge on offense going into a
playoff game are 82-65 ATS, or 55.8% since ’93. Since ’00, that record
improves to 48-34 ATS for 58.5%, showing that passing is clearly becoming
a more important ingredient to playoff success. Record last week: 2-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend:
Green Bay, New
England, Indianapolis, Dallas
Offensive Yards Per Pass
• Teams with a yards per pass edge on offense going into a playoff game
are 77-62 ATS, or 55.4% since ’93. Record last week: 2-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New
England, Indianapolis, Dallas

Yards Per Play Statistics
Offensive Yards Per Play
• Teams with a yards per play edge on offense going into a playoff game
are 83-63 ATS, or 56.8% since ’93, adding another fairly successful stat
category to our postseason handicapping arsenal.

Since ’00, that record
drops slightly to 46-36 ATS for 56.1%, but still at a success rate that would
net profitability each playoff year. Record last week: 2-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New
England, Indianapolis, Dallas

Summary
The fact that four of top six categories are offensive statistics dispels
the notion that “defense wins championships”.
Naturally, the next task is
to combine the top categories to see if teams enjoying edges in more than
one successful statistic enjoy further success.

Incidentally, teams enjoying
an edge in ALL SIX of these categories are 18-7 ATS since ’93 in the
playoffs, including 14-2 ATS in the divisional round.

Here are five successful playoff stat combos that achieved better than 60%
ATS success in THIS study:

* Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive
Rushing Yards Per Game are 44-28 ATS (61.1%) since ’93.
Record last
week: 1-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis, Dallas

* Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Yards
Per Rush are 36-18 ATS (66.7%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis

* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Passing
Yards Per Game are 35-20 ATS (63.6%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis

* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Pass
Yards Per Attempt are 32-17 ATS (65.3%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis
* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Yards
Per Play are 32-14 ATS (69.6%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis


Good luck this weekend