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  #1  
Old 01-03-2019, 07:14 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Exclamation Playoffs Betting Info

The Bears are the only team playing Wild Card weekend that didn't make the playoffs and is facing a team that did.

Since 2003, teams in the Wild Card round who failed to make the playoffs the year before and face a team that was in the postseason have gone 8-22-1 ATS.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:14 PM
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1st Half betting tip ...

Since 2002, Pacific and Mountain Time Zone NFL teams have been outscored 202-56 in the first half of all 1 p.m. ET playoff games.

Chargers in that spot against the Ravens.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:15 PM
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The Chargers are the most popular underdog bet Wild Card Weekend.

More than 60% of spread tickets are on the Bolts at Sports Insights Contributing Books

Since 2003, popular dogs in the playoffs, teams receiving 55% or more of bets, have gone 27-17-1 ATS.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:16 PM
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Indy has averaged 27.1 ppg (5th) while Houston’s defense has allowed 19.8 ppg (tied 4th).

Since 2003, when a defense allowing fewer than 20 ppg faces an offense scoring more than 26 ppg in the playoffs, the defensive team has gone 39-29-2 ATS.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:17 PM
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Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys have gone 32-45-3 (42%) ATS as a favorite.

As a home favorite, Dallas has gone 17-32-1 (35%) ATS under Garrett including 0-2 ATS in the playoffs.

Seahawks currently +2
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  #6  
Old 01-03-2019, 07:19 PM
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According to Pythagorean expectations the Seahawks have underperformed this season.

It has been profitable to target these types of teams late in the season including the playoffs where they have gone 33-20-3 (62%) ATS since 2003.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:21 PM
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Forecast calls for windy conditions in the Wild Card round.

Ravens / Chargers 12 mph winds

Bears / Eagles 13 mph winds

It has been profitable to bet the under in windy games including in the playoffs

21-13-2 since 2003
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:23 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since 2007, the home team on Wild Card Saturday is 14-7-1 ATS

The favorite is 11-3 SU in the last 14 Wild Card games
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  #9  
Old 01-03-2019, 07:27 PM
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South Point ...

"As anticipated all teasers on Colts / Seahawks / Chargers / Bears ... all taking over the touchdown and Bears just to win the game"
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  #10  
Old 01-03-2019, 07:43 PM
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One factor many gamblers might not consider before placing a wager is the referees.

Bill Vinovich, Walt Anderson, Clete Blakeman and Tony Corrente will lead the four crews officiating the wild-card games.

Referees are expected to be impartial but they do have tendencies that bettors can exploit. Of course, it would be unwise to place a wager based solely on the past results of the referee officiating the game. This is just one more piece of information to make you a more informed gambler.

Note: records include regular season and playoff games since 2003.



Bill Vinovich: Houston Texans (-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jan. 5, 4:35 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC

Favorites: 39-43-2 ATS (47.6%, -5.51 units)
Home Teams: 38-43-2 ATS (46.9%, -6.95 units)
Overs: 37-46-1 (44.6%, -10.63 units)
Texans: 2-4-1 ATS
Colts: 2-2-1 ATS

In games that Bill Vinovich has overseen, the under is 46-37-1 (55%) including 28-18-1 (61%) in the past three seasons.

According to Pro Football Reference, there have been 22.3% fewer penalty yards per game relative to the average official when Vinovich has been in charge the past three seasons. Fewer penalty yards likely lead to fewer first downs and thus less scoring.



Walt Anderson: Dallas Cowboys (-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Jan. 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | FOX

Favorites: 81-80-7 ATS (50.3%, -2.4 units)
Home Teams: 82-77-7 ATS (51.6%, +0.93 units)
Overs: 80-87-1 (47.9%, -10.4 units)
Cowboys: 6-7 ATS
Seahawks: 6-1-2 ATS

Cowboy nation is not happy that Walt Anderson will be officiating Saturday’s game. In Dallas’ marquee win of the season over the New Orleans Saints, Anderson’s crew missed a few calls, including a face mask of Dak Prescott.

What Cowboys fans might not remember is that a few calls went their way in that matchup as well. In the fourth quarter, Alvin Kamara was knocked out of the game by linebacker Jaylon Smith who launched himself into the helmet of the Saints running back. No flag was thrown on the play.

Regardless of the outcome, Anderson’s crew will likely be criticized by one, if not both, fanbases.



Clete Blakeman: Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Jan. 6, 1:05 p.m. ET | CBS

Favorites: 63-72-5 ATS (46.7%, -11.38 units)
Home Teams: 63-70-5 ATS (47.4%, -9.32 units)
Overs: 67-71-2 (48.6%, -6.77 units)
Ravens: 4-4-1 ATS
Chargers: 6-5 ATS

The Chargers are receiving the most lopsided betting action of Wild Card Weekend. Nearly 70% of spread tickets (see live odds) are on LA as a 3-point underdog. Popular underdogs have gone 27-17-1 ATS in the playoffs per Bet Labs.

In postseason games that Blakeman has officiated, the underdog has gone 5-1 ATS.



Tony Corrente: Chicago Bears (-6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Jan. 6, 4:40 p.m. ET | NBC

Favorites: 77-88-4 ATS (46.6%, -13.68 units)
Home Teams: 85-77-4 ATS (52.5%, +5.28 units)
Overs: 72-94-3 (43.4%, -24.67 units)
Bears: 4-5 ATS
Eagles: 5-8 ATS

The over/under for Bears-Eagles opened 41.5 and with a majority of tickets and dollars on the under, the total has been bet down to 41. History is on the side of under bettors as Corrente is the most profitable under official in our database, going 94-72-3 (56.6%).
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  #11  
Old 01-03-2019, 09:43 PM
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Currently at the more than 100 William Hill sportsbooks, 86% of the money is on the Colts against the spread.
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  #12  
Old 01-04-2019, 12:11 PM
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NFL Playoffs Bet Labs Systems ...

(Dogs in general 55% ATS since 2003)


Dogs <50% bets +6.5 or higher ... 62.8% ATS

Dogs with line movement in their favor ... 74.4% ATS

Dogs <50% bets with RLM ... 80.8% ATS
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  #13  
Old 01-04-2019, 12:18 PM
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John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Vegas ...


Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears – Open: -4.5; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6

Due to Foles’ injury, The SuperBook waited to post the line until Monday morning, and it quickly shot up from Bears -4.5 to -6 before finally drawing some Philly cash.

“We took a $20,000 bet on the Eagles +6 and moved to 5.5, but we are back up to Bears -6, as the majority of the bets have come in on the Bears,” Murray said. “Historically speaking, the fourth and final game of each playoff weekend is a high-handle game with big liability to the book, as all the moneyline parlays and teasers that are alive will be going to that game.

“I thought the Bears made a mistake beating the Vikings and would’ve been better off playing Minnesota again than playing the Eagles. We’ll see.”


Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans – Open: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5

“Good two-way on this game so far,” Murray said of action for this 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday meeting. “We did take a $30,000 bet on the Texans, and there’s been a lot of moneyline action on Houston. The Colts have been playing great lately, but I don’t want to sleep on Houston. The Texans have a lot of talent. I can’t remember the last time the first of the four wild-card games was this quality. It’s usually a dud.”


Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -1.5; Move: -2

“Another game with very good two-way handle,” Murray said. “We did take a bet for $20,000 on the Cowboys -2. This one should come down to the fourth quarter. It will be a very high-handle game between two high-profile teams in prime time.”


Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5

“I’m looking forward to this game, as I think both teams have the talent necessary to make a deep playoff run,” Murray said of a 1:05 p.m. ET start Sunday. “So far, most of the larger bets have come in on the Ravens and pushed the number to Ravens -2.5 (-120). I like the Chargers to win this game outright, although I don’t like the early East Coast time slot here for Los Angeles.”
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:23 PM
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Andrew Luck is 20-8-3 (71.4%) against the spread vs. the AFC South, covering by 5.8 points per game. But this will be the first time he’s seen a division opponent in the postseason.

According to Bet Labs data, Luck is 4-0 straight-up and ATS against divisional opponents that allow fewer than 17 points, covering by 11.3 points per game. He’s also 5-0 SU when the Colts are coming off a double-digit win.
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  #15  
Old 01-04-2019, 12:28 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Saturday Action ...


Colts / Texans

51% of Spread bets on IND +1
63% of Total bets on Over 48


Seahawks / Cowboys

51% of Spread bets on DAL -2.5
59% of Total bets on Over 43
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  #16  
Old 01-04-2019, 12:34 PM
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A common held belief among NFL bettors is that West Coast teams struggle when traveling cross-country. The theory is that long flights, road games and time zone changes, which can confuse players’ internal body clocks, impact performance on the field.


Since 2003, West Coast teams have gone 80-133 (37.6%) straight up when playing on the East Coast per Bet Labs. This seems significant, but against-the-spread (ATS) performance is a better indicator of how well a team performed compared to pregame expectations.

In that same time, West Coast teams are 102-105-6 (49.3%) ATS when playing on the road against an East Coast team. The losing ATS record suggests West Coast teams underperform, but there is a stark split in the data.

From 2003 to 2012, West Coast teams were 57-71-3 (44.5%) ATS when playing in the Eastern time zone, but since 2013 West Coast teams have had a winning ATS record in this situation. These teams have gone 45-34-3 (57.0%) ATS.

There are two reasons for the change. First, teams have become better at managing their travel. And second, as this trend became popular among bettors, the oddsmakers adjusted knowing gamblers would want to fade teams traveling west to east.

Some bettors might read this and think there is value wagering on the Chargers since the public overestimates the impact of cross-country travel. That would be unwise. In our six-year sample since 2013, West Coast teams have seen their performance on the East Coast fluctuate:

From 2013 to 2015: 24-13-1 (64.9%) ATS

From 2016 to 2018: 21-21-2 (50.0%) ATS


The takeaway is that there is no longer value fading West Coast teams traveling east and profitable betting trends lose value over time as they become popular among gamblers, forcing Bookmakers to adjust.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:43 PM
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INDIANAPOLIS VS HOUSTON


The Texans allowed just 17 points per game at home this season — third-lowest in the NFL.

The Texans have allowed an average of just 13.33 points over their last three home games. The Colts are allowing an average of just 14.2 points over their last five games.

Andrew Luck averaged 431.5 passing yards and had six TD passes in two games vs Houston this season.

The total has gone UNDER in four of the Colts' last five games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 44.8)

The total has gone UNDER in five of the Colts' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 39.71)

Texans home games had an average combined score of 42.88 this season.

The Texans have allowed just 59 rushing yards per game over their last three games — second-lowest in the NFL over this span.

In six career playoff games, Andrew Luck is 3-3 with nine TDs, 12 INTs and a 70.8 QB rating.

In two national championship games in college, Deshaun Watson threw for an average of 412.5 yards and compiled seven total TD passes and one INT. The man is a big-game player.

The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.

The Colts are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games in the playoffs on the road.

The Colts are 26-8 SU in their last 34 games vs the Texans.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:46 PM
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SEATTLE VS DALLAS


In Seattle’s 24-13 victory over the Cowboys in Week 4, Dak Prescott had just 168 passing yards, one TD and two INTs with a 54.5 QB rating.

The Seahawks are 25-6-4 ATS in their last 35 games at night.

The Seahawks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 night games as an underdog.

The Seahawks led the NFL with 160 rushing yards per game.

The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Seahawks led the NFL with a +15 turnover differential this season.

The Cowboys had the second-worst red-zone TD scoring percentage at home in the NFL during the regular season.

The visiting team is 3-7 SU in the last 10 games in this matchup.

The Cowboys are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Seahawks' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 53.88)

The total has gone OVER in five of the Cowboys' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.0)

The Cowboys are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games at night.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:48 PM
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LA CHARGERS VS BALTIMORE


Rookie quarterbacks are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the playoffs since 2012.

The Ravens are allowing an average of just 15.33 points over their last three games. This includes holding the Chargers to 10 points in Week 16’s 22-10 victory.

Since Lamar Jackson took over at QB seven games ago, the Ravens are averaging 229.86 rushing yards per game. In their first nine games, they only averaged 92.67

In nine career playoff games, Philip Rivers has 11 TD passes and nine INTs.

Chargers road games had an average combined score of 47.63 this season.

The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last seven playoff games.

The total has gone UNDER in the Ravens' last six games in the playoffs at home.

The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.

The Ravens are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games after consecutive wins.

The total has gone OVER in five of the Chargers' last seven games vs the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 47.71)

The Chargers are 6-0 SU in their last six games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 10.67)

The Chargers led the NFL in net yards per play on the road during the regular season.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:51 PM
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PHILADELPHIA VS CHICAGO


The Bears are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games at home. (Avg winning margin: 9.4)

Over their last four games, the Bears are allowing an average of just 10.5 points.

The Bears are 8-1 ATS on the first-half spread in their last nine games. They also led the NFL in first-half point differential this season at +8. The Eagles were tied for the second-worst first-half spread record at 6-10 ATS.

In Weeks 15-17 with Nick Foles at QB, the Eagles averaged 28.7 points and 420 yards per game. In Weeks 1-14 they averaged 21.62 points and 352.7 yards per game.

The Bears led the NFL in net yards per play at home this season.

The total has gone UNDER in the Bears' last four games. (Avg combined score: 29.75)

Over their last three games, the Eagles have allowed a league-low 55 rushing yards per game. Chicago isn’t far off at 66.

The Eagles have a league-best 44.64% opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage.

The Bears had a league-best 27 interceptions during the regular season.
Nick Foles has thrown an interception in each of his last three starts.

The Eagles allowed 304.9 passing yards per game on the road — the second-highest average in the NFL.

In his only career start vs the Eagles, Mitch Trubisky had one of the worst starts of his career — zero touchdowns and two interceptions with a 51.52 completion percentage, leading the Bears to just three points.
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Old 01-04-2019, 01:37 PM
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Since 2003, the team with the better record has gone 61-84-3 (42%) ATS in the playoffs.

Texans (11-5) vs. Colts (10-6)
Chargers (12-4) at Ravens (10-6)
Bears (12-4) vs. Eagles (9-7)
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Old 01-04-2019, 01:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
The Bears are the only team playing Wild Card weekend that didn't make the playoffs and is facing a team that did.

Since 2003, teams in the Wild Card round who failed to make the playoffs the year before and face a team that was in the postseason have gone 8-22-1 ATS.

When that team is listed as the favorite, they are 2-7 ATS, per Bet Labs data.

Chicago won 5 games a season ago before going from worst to first in the NFC North. Since 2003, teams that won 5 or fewer games the season prior have gone 7-26 ATS in the playoffs.
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Old 01-04-2019, 02:22 PM
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A bettor at the William Hill sportsbook at Monmouth Park in Jersey just placed a $275,000 bet on the Dallas Cowboys to cover as 2-point favorites against the Seahawks on Saturday.
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Old 01-04-2019, 03:06 PM
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BetOnline

The public is backing all four underdogs in the Wild Card Weekend

61% going with the Colts (+2) at the Texans
58% on the Seahawks (+1) at the Cowboys
Chargers (54%) and Eagles (52%) are also backed by the majority
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Old 01-04-2019, 03:08 PM
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Melvin Gordon (ankle) wasn't listed on the Chargers' final injury report for Sunday's Wild Card game against the Ravens.
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