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  #326  
Old 01-21-2019, 08:41 PM
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Since Nevada Gaming Control began tracking the betting on the Super Bowl in 1991, the state's books have come out ahead in 26 of 28 games.

Only losses: (Chargers-49ers) and (Giants-Patriots I)

Includes props
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  #327  
Old 01-21-2019, 09:39 PM
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Monday night useless trend ...

The Patriots will wear their white road jerseys in Super Bowl LIII, according to a club official. The team is 3-2 in Super Bowls when wearing white

FYI ... Rams are wearing their throwback uniform
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  #328  
Old 01-21-2019, 11:26 PM
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The tipping point in LV to where the Super Bowl money is going is to watch the line movement at South Point as the wise guys do.

Book director Chris Andrews uses flat numbers via owner Michael Gaughan. If a +3 happens, it'll be there. And then wait to see how long it lasts.
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  #329  
Old 01-22-2019, 01:19 AM
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MGM ...

Ticket and money percentages after day 2 of SB betting

75% of point spread tickets on Patriots
96% of point spread money on Patriots


Six figure wagers ...

Patriots ... 2
Rams ... 0
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  #330  
Old 01-22-2019, 02:28 PM
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South Point just moved to 3 ...
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  #331  
Old 01-22-2019, 02:43 PM
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-3 lasted about 15 minutes, already back to -2.5
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  #332  
Old 01-22-2019, 02:56 PM
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BetOnline

Early bet count

82% on Patriots (-2.5)

62% on Patriots (-137)

56% on Under (57.5)
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  #333  
Old 01-22-2019, 03:03 PM
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Chris Andrews at South Point

"It lasted under 20 minutes. We got a lot of play on the Rams +3, mostly wiseguys on the mobile app. We just wanted to test the waters."

"Personally, I think there'll be a lot of 3s by game time. So I figured, 'Why not be first?' If you're gonna get there anyway, be first."

"We're putting out pointspread props tomorrow, so I really just wanted to see what the appetite was for Rams +3 ... And I got my answer"
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  #334  
Old 01-22-2019, 03:11 PM
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Tuesday afternoon useless info ...

Sports Line simulated the game 10,000 times

The average final score ...

Patriots - 29
Rams - 28
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  #335  
Old 01-22-2019, 04:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
-3 lasted about 15 minutes, already back to -2.5

Wiseguys fired off 6 figures on L.A. in that small window
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  #336  
Old 01-23-2019, 11:54 AM
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Should Bettors Follow Line Movement?


The Patriots are receiving an overwhelming amount of support from public and sharp bettors. With more than 80% of tickets and dollars on New England, Bookmakers have moved the Pats to 2.5-point favorites with line hitting the key number of -3 for 17 minutes.

Bettors didn’t just move the spread, the over/under has shifted as well since the conference championship games ended. Super Bowl 53 opened with the highest total (58.5) in Super Bowl history.

A majority of tickets and dollars are on the under, causing the line to drop to 57, which is now tied with Super Bowl 51 for highest over/under.

Oddsmakers move lines based on sharp action. If the pros are on the Patriots and the under, would it be profitable to follow line movement in the Super Bowl?

To find out, we used the Bet Labs database to analyze against-the-spread (ATS) and over/under line movement in Super Bowl history.

There are 15 Super Bowls in their database and the line has moved in 13 of them. The team that has seen the line move in its direction, meaning it became a bigger favorite (-1 to -3) or smaller underdog (+6 to +4), has gone 8-5 ATS.

That is a small sample but it fits the larger trend we see when analyzing line movement in the other rounds of the playoffs. Since 2003, in all playoff games the team that has seen the line move in its direction has gone 70-52-4 (57.4%) ATS.

This doesn’t mean the Patriots will cover, but history is on New England’s side.


Since 2004, when the over/under decreases in the Super Bowl the under has gone 4-6. If the total increases, the over has gone 2-2. Combined, following the line movement, whether the total increases or decreases, has gone 6-8 (there was no line movement in Super Bowl 40).

These results would not encourage you to follow the over/under line movement. However, if we look at the rest of the playoffs in the same time frame to get a larger sample size the results change.

Since 2004 in all playoff games, following the over/under line movement has gone 81-67-4 (54.7%). That looks promising but all of the value came from betting the under when the line decreased in the Wild Card Round (21-7).

If you remove those games, following the over/under line movement has gone 40-40-4 (50.0%).

A majority of bettors are on the under but the data doesn’t recommend blindly following the crowd.
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  #337  
Old 01-23-2019, 01:06 PM
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New England controlling the clock


One thing that the playoffs have taught us is that the Patriots want to play slowly and methodically, at least early on. In the Divisional Round, they took the opening kickoff and ran 14 plays for 83 yards in 7:11 for a touchdown. In the AFC Championship Game, they one-upped themselves by taking 8:05 off the clock during a 15-play, 80-yard touchdown drive.

These marathon drives have left the opposing offenses standing around for a long time to begin the games and this approach has worked — the Chargers mustered just seven first-half points in the Divisional Round, while the Chiefs were shut out last week.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been slow starters so far in the playoffs, scoring three points in the first quarter against Dallas in the Divisional Round before being shut out in the first quarter last week at New Orleans. L.A. has rebounded with points in the second quarter, but the first-half total still hit Under 27.5 in both.

The first-half total for Super Bowl LIII opened at 28 and has ticked down to 27.5 at some sportsbooks, so it might be the right time to make this bet if you’re backing the above analysis.
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  #338  
Old 01-23-2019, 01:45 PM
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Wednesday afternoon update from Will Hill's 100+ Sportsbooks & Mobile Sports app in Nevada / New Jersey / West Virginia


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  #339  
Old 01-23-2019, 01:47 PM
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Since 2001, Super Bowl teams after Conf Champ win of 3 or less:

4-1 SU/ATS (Avg Line: +4.4) ... 0-5 O/U (Avg Total: 49.7)

Dogs: 4-0 SU/ATS includes both NYG wins over NE
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  #340  
Old 01-23-2019, 01:48 PM
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Since 2001, Super Bowl underdogs off dog SU win:

7-2 SU ... 9-0 ATS


Off road dog win:

5-1 SU ... 6-0 ATS
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  #341  
Old 01-23-2019, 01:50 PM
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After scoring 28 or more ... 8-10 SU/ATS


After scoring 27 or less: 9-7 SU/ATS ... (dogs 6-3 SU ... 8-1 ATS)
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  #342  
Old 01-23-2019, 04:31 PM
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As of Wednesday morning, 94% of the money that has been wagered on the Super Bowl point spread at Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology was on the Patriots.

CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal ...

The largest bets to this point were in the five-figure range, "all of which are on the Patriots"
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  #343  
Old 01-23-2019, 04:33 PM
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Biggest futures bets ...


Rams ...

$50,000 on the Rams at 7-2 for a net win of $175,000 at Westgate Las Vegas.

$30,000 on the Rams at 3-1 for a net win of $90,000 at MGM.

$5,000 on the Rams at 9-1 for a net win of $45,000 at CG Technology.


Patriots ...

$15,000 on the Patriots at 5-1 for a net win of $75,000 at CG Technology.

$10,000 on the Patriots at 7-1 for a net win of $70,000 at CG Technology
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  #344  
Old 01-23-2019, 04:36 PM
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$2.4 billion ... The amount bet on the Super Bowl at Nevada's regulated sportsbooks since 1991.

-$173,525,334 ... The net loss on the Super Bowl for bettors at Nevada's regulated sportsbooks since 1991.
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  #345  
Old 01-23-2019, 07:05 PM
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SuperBook ... Wednesday night update

Ticket count

Patriots 77.6%
Rams 22.4%
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  #346  
Old 01-23-2019, 11:15 PM
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MGM Race and Sports

Ticket and money percentages after day 4

73% of point spread tickets on Patriots
96% of point spread $$ on Patriots


5 figure wagers ...

Patriots - 9
Rams - 0
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  #347  
Old 01-24-2019, 11:46 AM
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Through the first four days of Super Bowl 53 betting, the New England Patriots have been a wildly popular spread wager among both professional and casual bettors.

According to The Action Network’s public betting data, 82% of bets, accounting for 85% of actual dollars wagered, on the spread have taken the Pats.

With the Patriots garnering such a large percentage of the overall Super Bowl 53 betting handle, we turned to our Bet Labs database to compare betting trends for Rams-Patriots to every Super Bowl available in our archive.

Here’s a look at closing lines, betting percentages and against-the-spread (ATS) results from Super Bowls 38-52:


Date ... Public ... Favorite ... Spread % ... Opponent ... Cover?


Super Bowl 53 / Feb 3, 2019 / Patriots (-2.5) / 82% / Rams / ?

Super Bowl 52 / Feb 4, 2018 / Eagles (+4.5) / 52% / Patriots / Yes

Super Bowl 51 / Feb 5, 2017 / Patriots (-3) / 62% / Falcons / Yes

Super Bowl 50 / Feb 7, 2016 / Panthers (-4.5) / 61% / Broncos / No

Super Bowl 49 / Feb 1, 2015 / Patriots (-1) / 64% / Seahawks / Yes

Super Bowl 48 / Feb 2, 2014 / Broncos (-1.5) / 68% / Seahawks / No

Super Bowl 47 / Feb 3, 2013 / Ravens (+4.5) / 56% / 49ers / Yes

Super Bowl 46 / Feb 5, 2012 / Giants (+3) / 53% / Patriots / Yes

Super Bowl 45 / Feb 6, 2011 / Steelers (+3) / 51% / Packers / No

Super Bowl 44 / Feb 7, 2010 / Colts (-4.5) / 53% / Saints / No

Super Bowl 43 / Feb 1, 2009 / Cardinals (+6.5) / 56% / Steelers / Yes

Super Bowl 42 / Feb 3, 2008 / Giants (+12.5) / 60% / Patriots / Yes

Super Bowl 41 / Feb 4, 2007 / Bears (+6.5) / 51% / Colts / No

Super Bowl 40 / Feb 5, 2006 / Seahawks (+4) / 51% / Steelers / No

Super Bowl 39 / Feb 6, 2005 / Patriots (-7) / 55% / Eagles / No

Super Bowl 38 / Feb 1, 2004 / Panthers (+7) / 56% / Patriots /Yes



Overall, Super Bowl betting has been very balanced since 2004, especially from Super Bowls 38-47.

Super Bowl 48 between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks was the first to close with one team receiving more than 60% of spread bets over our sample, starting a run of four straight years in which bettors backed one side at more than a 60% clip.

Super Bowl 48 was also the most lopsided championship game we’ve ever tracked, as Denver closed with 68% of all spread tickets.

Should bettors continue backing New England at such a furious pace, the Patriots will easily close as the most popular Super Bowl bet we’ve ever tracked.

For those wondering, NFL teams that receive at least 80% of spread bets have not performed well historically, going 94-114-9 (45.2%) ATS since 2003, per Bet Labs.

There are still more than 10 days until Super Bowl 53 kicks off, leaving plenty of time for Rams bettors to get in on the action, especially if the current one-sided betting forces oddsmakers to move this line to the key number of 3.
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  #348  
Old 01-24-2019, 12:36 PM
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1:30PM EST Thursday Current numbers ...


Boyd Gaming books have Patriots -3 EVEN (Rams are +3 -120)

All other Vegas books still at Pats -2.5 (though Station Casinos has added vig of -120 with Caesars Palace books at -115)

CG Technology books still have lowest Patriots ML of -138

Highest Rams ML is +125 at Boyd Gaming, Wynn & Treasure Island

Consensus is Pats -140 / Rams +120

9 of 12 Vegas books have over/under 57.5 with CG, Caesars & Treasure Island at 57
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  #349  
Old 01-24-2019, 01:37 PM
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BetOnline

"Based off the early action, it's looking like we will be fans of the Under for Gladys Knight's National Anthem"

About 61% bet on Over 1:50
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  #350  
Old 01-24-2019, 02:31 PM
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Boyd Gaming's local chain of Vegas books had all the risk they wanted on the Patriots from the first four days of Super Bowl 53 wagering and had to balance things out. Rather than mess around with the money-line to attract Rams money, on Thursday morning they made the bold move to get off of Patriots -2.5 -120 and move up to -3 EVEN.

Tickets counts are almost 3-to-1 in favor of the Patriots and they've taken multiple $25,000 wagers so far on the Patriots, but nothing too big yet.

"We had enough risk on the Patriots and we wanted to test the waters early to see if could get some Rams money and it's a little scary that since we went to -3 EVEN that we haven't seen anyone take the Rams (+3 -120)"

They estimate they have only seen about 5% of the overall action the chain of books will see, so there is a possibility of seeing Rams money arrive in the second week and walking the number down.
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