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  #26  
Old 01-04-2019, 03:04 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Nick Foles (ribs) wasn't listed on the Eagles' final injury report for Sunday's Wild Card game against the Bears.
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  #27  
Old 01-04-2019, 03:18 PM
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Atlantic City Sportsbooks have the most liability on these 3 teams

Chargers +3 ... 67% of Public
Colts +1 ... 64% of Public
Cowboys -2 ... 59% of Public


Also Eagles & Chargers tied up in approximately 69% of teasers so far
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  #28  
Old 01-04-2019, 03:40 PM
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Consensus from Bookmaker, Pinnacle, 5dimes, BetOnline, Bovada, & William Hill ...


Colts at Texans (-1, 48)

Bets are fairly split here (51% on the Colts), but it isn’t hard to tell which side the sharps are on based off of the line movement. The Colts opened as three-point underdogs, and the line has already moved two points thanks to 64% of money wagered coming in on the Colts. It wouldn't be surprising to see reverse line movement towards the under before kickoff (60% of bets currently on the over but only 49% of money). This will be the third meeting between these divisional rivals, and several key offensive players are banged up (T.Y. Hilton, Keke Coutee, Ryan Grant, Ryan Kelly).


Seahawks at Cowboys (-2, 43)

This game opened Cowboys -2.5, O/U 41.5, and sharp bettors immediately pounced on both the Seahawks & the over. This does not mean you should go chasing sharp action, however. It seems some buy-back has since taken place on the under, as many books touched 44 just to drop right back to 43/43.5.


Chargers at Ravens (-2.5 -120, 41.5)

Despite 72% of bets coming in on the Chargers, books have been hesitant to move this line. Most places are hanging either Ravens -2.5 -120 or -3 +100, do not expect that to change much before kickoff. Sharp bettors see a banged up Chargers team that has to travel east for a 1:00 kickoff and have no problem laying less than an FG with arguably the best defense in the NFL.


Eagles at Bears (-6.5, 41)

Not much to report in terms of sharp action, 52% of bets are currently on the under, but that accounts for only 35% of money.
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  #29  
Old 01-04-2019, 03:49 PM
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CG Technology ...


Colts/Texans

62% of bets and 64% of money on Indy


Seahawks/Cowboys

67% of bets and 52% of money on Seattle


Chargers/Ravens

63% of bets on LA, 69% of money on Baltimore


Eagles at Bears

60% of bets and 57% of money on Chicago
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  #30  
Old 01-04-2019, 04:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
A bettor at the William Hill sportsbook at Monmouth Park in Jersey just placed a $275,000 bet on the Dallas Cowboys to cover as 2-point favorites against the Seahawks on Saturday.

$110,000 at -1.5 ... $110,000 at -2 and $55,000 at -2.5
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  #31  
Old 01-05-2019, 06:06 AM
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MGM Race and Sports ....


Colts at Texans
57% of point spread tickets and 3X the money on Colts

Seahawks at Cowboys
62% of point spread tickets on Seahawks ... Twice as much money bet on Cowboys
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  #32  
Old 01-05-2019, 09:47 AM
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Houston 1H 12-4.
Indoor playoff games are 28-8 OVER.


Dallas UNDER 17-8 and Seattle non-div NFC road UNDER 15-4 conflicts with indoor playoff game OVER trend

Seattle 8-2-1. Pete Carroll at night 25-6-4.




NFL WILDCARD SUNDAY

Chicago 1H 8-1.
Chicago home 9-1. Philly 5-9-1.
Philly 1Q 4-12 but they have won the last 2.
Philly OVER road in a 6 point teaser 30-2.

NO TRENDS CHARGERS/RAVENS
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  #33  
Old 01-05-2019, 09:55 AM
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Since 1990, NFL playoff home favorites of 2.5 or less:

5-11 SU
2-13-1 ATS.

Since 2010,

3-7 SU
1-8-1 ATS.






Since 2000, playoff dogs of 2.5 or less in their first playoff game:

10-6 SU
12-2-2 ATS.

Avg Score: 24.1-20.7.

Since 2010,

5-3 SU

6-1-1 ATS.

Avg Score: 23.0-21.2.
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  #34  
Old 01-05-2019, 10:25 AM
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Saturday NFL Wild-Card Mega Preview: How to Bet Colts-Texans, Seahawks-Cowboys


NFL
s.

NFL Playoffs Betting Odds: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Spread: Texans -1
Over/Under: 48
Time: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
TV channel: ESPN/ABC
Betting Market
The Colts have been a trendy dog all week, receiving more than 50% of bets and dollars as of writing (see live data here). This support has pushed them from a 3-point underdog to just +1 on the road.

The over/under has received sharp action on each side. After opening at 47, the total rose to 49.5 behind steam on the over. But once it got that high, there was a reverse line move on the under, dropping it back down to 48 around the market. — Mark Gallant




Trends to Know
Andrew Luck is 20-8-3 (71.4%) against the spread vs. the AFC South, covering by 5.8 points per game. But this will be the first time he’s seen a division opponent in the postseason.

According to our Bet Labs data, Luck is 4-0 straight-up (3-0-1 ATS) against divisional opponents that allowed fewer than 17 points in their previous game, covering by 11.3 points per game. He’s also 5-0 SU when the Colts opponents are coming off a double-digit win. — Evan Abrams

This is a matchup of the Colts offense versus the Texans defense. Indy has averaged 27.1 points per game (fifth in the NFL) while Houston has allowed 19.8 points per game (tied for fourth).

When defenses allowing fewer than 20 points per game face offenses scoring more than 26 points per game in the playoffs, the defensive team has gone 39-29-2 (57%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing

According to Pythagorean expectations, the Colts have underperformed this season.

Since 2003, when a team with a winning record has underperformed according to point differential, it’s been profitable to bet them in December or later. These teams have gone 33-20-3 ATS in the playoffs. — John Ewing




Biggest Mismatches

When the Colts have the ball: T.Y. Hilton vs. Texans Secondary

Despite Hilton being plagued by a nagging ankle injury that’s caused him to miss practice time and might have cut short a potential 90-yard catch-and-run touchdown after 43 yards in Week 17, the stud WR is undoubtedly the biggest threat to a Texans defense that’s the NFL’s second-worst unit at defending No. 1 wide receivers according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Hilton’s two stat lines against Houston this season are 4-115 on six targets and 9-199 on 12 targets, including gains of 60, 42, 40, 34, 29 and 28.

And despite the Texans securing a first-round home playoff game for the third time in four seasons, you couldn’t blame fans for not feeling like home field is an advantage against this particular opponent.


Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans are 1-4 at home against the Colts, and a big reason why is that Hilton in Houston channels MJ in Madison Square Garden: Of Hilton’s five combined regular season and playoff games with at least 175 yards receiving, three have taken place in Houston — all one-score losses for the Texans. — Chris Raybon

When the Texans have the ball: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Colts Secondary

For the first time in a long time, the Colts’ pass defense has been middling rather than flat-out bad, ranking 20th in overall DVOA and 17th against No. 1 wide receivers — yet it’s still clearly outmatched by Hopkins.


Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeAndre Hopkins
Such is life when you’re going up against a receiver who not only set a career-high in catches (115) and yards (1,572) this season, but did so on 163 targets — 29 fewer than it took to establish his previous career-best marks.

Perhaps most impressively, Hopkins’ 115 grabs came without a single drop. To put that into context, the receiver with the second-most catches without a drop (Tyler Lockett) caught just 57 balls.

Even containing Hopkins is relative.

After he roasted first-year coordinator Matt Eberflus’ defense for a 10-169-1 line in the teams’ first meeting of 2018, Hopkins saw that same unit return in the second meeting with a game plan that resulted in nearly as many pass breakups (3) as receptions (4) on his 10 targets.

And even though the Texans lost that game 24-21, Hopkins was still able to secure the clutch 7-yard touchdown that pulled the Texans within three points with 2:37 remaining before an untimely third-down penalty by Jadeveon Clowney allowed the Colts to run out the clock — Raybon




Quarterback: Texans

There aren’t many quarterbacks you’d rather have than Luck, who has excelled in high-leverage situations this season, leading the Colts to the top-ranked third-down offense and fifth-ranked red-zone offense in the league, while Watson’s Texans ranked 20th and 27th, respectively.

But despite Luck’s superior situational success and his 6-0 edge over Watson in career playoff starts, there’s reason to believe that Watson is the more trustworthy quarterback in a game that’s expected to come down to the wire.

Luck falls off on the road. While Watson’s splits at home (13 TD/4 INT, 8.2 YPA) and on the road (13 TD/5 INT, 8.3 YPA) this season were nearly identical, Luck’s outstanding performance in Indy (21 TD/5 INT, 7.8 YPA) didn’t always translate well on enemy turf, where he became more turnover-prone and less efficient (18 TD/10 INT, 6.6 YPA).

Luck hasn’t been as good in the clutch, either.

Not only has Watson led more fourth-quarter comebacks (5) and game-winning drives (5) this season than Luck (3 and 3), but Watson’s 7-of-10, 81-yard performance with five first downs in overtime when these teams met in Week 4 bested Luck (8-of-13, 75 yards and three first downs) in the extra period, allowing Houston to escape with a three-point win.


Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andrew Luck
Luck also isn’t as good under pressure. Among 33 quarterbacks with 250 or more dropbacks, Watson was pressured at the highest rate in the league this season (44.1%) while Luck was pressured at the sixth-lowest rate (29.1%), per data from Pro Football Focus.

Yet Watson was still able to post the league’s best passer rating under pressure (88.4) while Luck ranked 15th (73.4).

Turnovers were again an issue for Luck, too, as he threw seven picks on 173 attempts under pressure while Watson threw just five on 183.

Watson’s play has been more even across all situations than Luck’s.

Watson averaged 8.3 yards per attempt last season and 8.2 this season while Luck has ranged from 6.4 to 7.8 over his six seasons. Even in games without Will Fuller this season, Watson’s 7.9 yards per attempt is easily better than Luck’s 7.2 mark overall.

Luck’s edge in playoff experience doesn’t come without reason for pause, either — he’s compiled a 9-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a passer rating of just 70.5 in six career playoff games. — Raybon



Coaching: Texans

The Colts have assembled an excellent coaching staff, which is a huge reason for their quick turnaround. But the experience on the Texans’ sideline wins out in this case.

Just as Frank Reich has done in his first season in Indianapolis, Bill O’Brien led the Texans to a 9-7 record and playoff berth in his first season in Houston in 2014.

But O’Brien’s five-year head-coaching resume features four nine-plus-win seasons and three playoff berths in all, in addition to holding various positions from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick in New England from 2007-11.

And while Eberflus improved the Colts defense from 27th to 10th in DVOA, this is still Year 1 for the 48-year-old while the 71-year-old Romeo Crennel — who improved the Texans from 23rd to seventh in DVOA in his first year back at coordinator after Mike Vrabel coordinated the defense last season — has held coordinator or head-coaching positions since 2000. — Raybon


Special teams: Texans

Despite the name recognition of Adam Vinatieri, I have to give a slight edge to Ka’imi Fairbairn in the kicking game.

Fairbairn has been the model of consistency, connecting on all 41 attempts within 40 yards and making 95% of his extra-point attempts. Meanwhile, Vinatieri is 23-for-27 on field goals (extremely average percentage) and has missed three extra points.

Both teams are almost identical in punt return production, averaging right around nine yards per return, but Houston could have a tough time breaking any long returns against Indy’s coverage unit, which ranks third in net punting and first in opponent return average.



The Texans have had one of the NFL’s best kick coverage units, while the Colts have been about average, another slight edge.

Houston ranks seventh in special teams DVOA; the Colts rank 20th. I don’t think the discrepancy is that big, but I do give the Texans a very small edge. That advantage shouldn’t be swinging your bets, though. — Stuckey



Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Texans

The Colts and Texans have frequently stacked their early week injury reports, though Houston is in slightly better shape.

Cornerback Johnathan Joseph (neck), slot receiver Keke Coutee (hamstring) and defensive tackle Brandon Dunn (ankle) all practiced in full on Wednesday. Still, O’Brien called Coutee a game-time decision.

Meanwhile, the Colts are tentatively expected to have Hilton (ankle) and starting center Ryan Kelly (neck). Hilton’s presence is especially crucial considering Ryan Grant (toe), Zach Pascal (knee) and Dontrelle Inman (shoulder, finger) are also all banged up.

The defense isn’t exactly functioning at 100% with safety Clayton Geathers (knee), defensive end Tyquan Lewis (knee) and defensive end Jabaal Sheard (knee) should be considered questionable.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz




DFS Edge
For the Colts: Luck

Inside NRG Stadium, Luck is in one of the best game environments for DFS.

He should have plenty of time to throw from the pocket thanks to the Texans’ 28.9% pressure rate (25th in the NFL), per Sports Info Solutions.

It also helps that the Colts’ offensive line was tremendous at protecting him, allowing a pressure rate of just 29.5%. He was sacked on only 9.0% of those pressures, the lowest rate in the league per PFF.

Luck’s Median Projection on DraftKings and FanDuel trails only Watson’s among quarterbacks in this round, according to our FantasyLabs Models.

For the Texans: Hopkins

The Colts have been stronger against the run (fourth in rush DVOA) this season than the pass (20th in pass DVOA), making Hopkins the perfect Texans player to roll back a game stack with.

Hopkins has seen 35% of the Texans’ targets share and 49% of their air yards over the past six weeks, and his Median Projection on DraftKings and FanDuel leads all receivers by nearly four points.

DeAndre Carter could be an interesting salary-relief option on DraftKings for $3,300 with Demaryius Thomas (Achilles) out for the season. Carters’ +3.37 Projected Plus/Minus leads all receivers on DraftKings. — Justin Bailey




Bets to Watch

Colts +1: Has any team had an easier stretch of games than the Texans? Their schedule featured only two opponents inside the top 12 of Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric — the Colts and Patriots — who the Texans went 1-2 against with the one win coming in overtime.

The heart of Houston’s issues is the offensive line, which ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. Watson has been on the run in every single game.

In addition to poor protection, the run-blocking ranks outside the top 20 in power rank, stuffed and second-level yards.

These rankings indicate Saturday will be a long day against a Colts D-line that’s fourth in stuffed and seventh in second-level yards.

And if all that weren’t enough, the Colts’ offensive line ranks second in adjusted sack rate. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney might stop the run, but they will have issues getting to Luck.

The Texans have not covered against the Colts at home in the the past six tries. Indianapolis, meanwhile, finished the season red hot, winning nine of its last 10 games.

Contrary to what Raybon said earlier, I trust Reich to out-coach O’Brien — then to give Andy Reid and the Chiefs plenty of problems in the divisional round. — Collin Wilson


Over 48: This is the highest over/under of the weekend. It’s also the most popular.

I don’t care.

Playoff games in domes have been straight cash, homie. The over has hit in 28-of-37 games since 2003, winning by an average margin of more than six points.

One might think that games with lower totals in this sample would have gone over more often, but they would be wrong: In games with totals of 47 or higher, the over has hit 21 out of 24 times by a margin of almost 10 points. If there’s a 24-game sample you want to lay down a handsome wager on, this could be it.

The games with lower totals are just 7-6 with a margin of practically zero, which is why I don’t like Seahawks-Cowboys as much. — Gallant



Over 48: There are many reasons why this is the week’s highest over/under.

The Colts (No. 2 in situation neutral pace) and Texans (No. 9) easily boast the round’s fastest-paced matchup.
It boasts the two highest combined net yards per pass attempt rates of the week.
The Texans are one of six defenses to allow at least 75 receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers, and Hilton has historically dominated at NRG Stadium.
The Texans and Colts are the league’s only defenses that have allowed at least 70 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
The Colts (No. 20 in DVOA vs. pass, No. 4 vs. run) and Texans (No. 18 vs. pass, No. 1 vs. run) feature pass funnel defenses that should be exploited by the other pass offense.
The biggest concern on both sides of the ball is pressure. The Texans have done a terrible job of protecting Watson, but he’s continued to make the best of his situation.

Meanwhile, the Colts did a great job limiting hits on Luck, but the Texans were surprisingly able to cause some problems — he was sacked six times in two games against the Texans, but just 12 times in his other 14 games.

I’ll bet on these two elite quarterbacks to make big plays despite the potential for some muddled pockets. — Hartitz












NFL Playoffs Betting Odds: Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -2
Over/Under: 43
Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV channel: FOX

Betting Market
The Seahawks have been trendy among public and sharp bettors. They’re getting the slight majority of spread bets, but have also been hit by a steam move that dropped them from +2.5 to +1.

Seattle is back at +2 at the time of writing (see live odds here).

The over was hit by early money as big bets pushed the line from the opener of 41 to 44 in just about 12 hours, but that might have been an overreaction.

Buyback on the under has dropped it back down to 43, with 60% of the tickets and 66% of the money on the over. — Mark Gallant



Trends to Know
The under has gone 3-0 in Russell Wilson’s three wild-card appearances, failing to hit the total by 13.7 points per game with opponents scoring 14 or fewer points in each matchup. — Evan Abrams

Since 2003, the over has gone 640-519-21 (55%) in non-division games with low totals (44 or fewer points) in which wind is blowing at <9 mph or is being played in a dome.

If the over/under has increased by one or more points (like this one has), it’s still been profitable to bet the over: 137-106-3 (56%). — John Ewing

The Cowboys have gone 35-23-1 (60%) against the spread as an underdog under Jason Garrett compared to 32-45-3 (42%) ATS as a favorite, per our Bet Labs data.

As a home favorite, Dallas has gone 17-32-1 (35%) ATS under Garrett, including 0-2 ATS in the playoffs. — Ewing




Officiating report: Walt Anderson will be the head official at AT&T Stadium. Here are home team results for playoff games he’s officiated over the past decade. — Abrams

2015: Patriots (-7) over Jets, 45-7
2014: Colts (+2) over Chiefs, 45-44
2010: Vikings (-2.5) over Cowboys, 34-3
2009: Cardinals (+3.5) over Eagles, 32-25

Biggest Mismatches
When Cowboys have the ball: WR Amari Cooper vs. CB Shaquill Griffin

Although his boom-or-bust ways followed Cooper to Dallas, he has never been better. His Pro Football Focus receiving grade of 81.2 and 80.6 receiving yards per game since being traded from Oakland are both career-high marks.

Lining up mostly out wide on the right side of the formation, Cooper is likely to face Griffin for the majority of snaps.



Although Griffin had a promising rookie campaign in 2017, he’s since regressed. On 605 coverage snaps this season, Griffin has earned a subpar 51.9 PFF coverage grade and allowed a catch rate of 66.2%.

The Cowboys will likely look to run the ball early and often. Cooper has also been held to receiving performances of 32, 20 and 31 scoreless yards since his massive 217-yard, three-touchdown onslaught in Week 14 — but he’s averaged 8.4 targets with the Cowboys, who have given him fewer than seven targets in a game only twice.

If the Cowboys commit to giving Cooper the ball, he should be able to produce against Griffin. — Matthew Freedman



Lockett, who will likely face Awuzie and Lewis for the supermajority of his snaps, has had a quietly dominant campaign with 1,034 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage on just 70 targets and 13 carries.
The receiver has bestowed a perfect 158.3 QB rating to Wilson when targeted (per PFF) — quite a feat to accomplish through 16 games — as well as an elite 16.4 adjusted yards per attempt.

In short, Wilson and Lockett have been as dynamic as any QB/WR connection in 2018.

With Pro-Bowler Byron Jones locked in at right corner, the Seahawks will likely look to attack Awuzie on the left side of the field and Lewis in the slot when they have to pass.

Neither cornerback is bad, but they have combined to allow a catch rate of 64.9%.

Not once this season has Lockett had more than seven targets in a game, so he’s unlikely to put up a monster performance. But he’s delivered with clutch catches when the Seahawks have needed him.

In a game that figures to be close, even just a few key receptions could be enough to give Seattle the victory. — Freedman


Who Has the Advantage in Key Areas?
Quarterback: Seahawks

Even though Wilson threw the worst pick in Super Bowl history — as well as one of the worst regular-season picks in recent memory against the Vikings just a few weeks ago — he is the easy answer here.

Prescott did well in his lone playoff appearance with 302 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in a loss to the Packers in 2016, but his ring-less resume pales in comparison to Wilson’s 8-4 record and Super Bowl title in 12 postseason starts.

Wilson tossed a career-best 35 touchdowns on only 427 attempts this season, which looks even more absurd when considering it took Prescott 99 more attempts to throw 13 fewer touchdowns.

And although Prescott added six scores on the ground while Wilson had none, Wilson was the more efficient rusher with 376 yards on 67 attempts (5.6 yards per carry) compared to Prescott’s 305 yards on 75 carries (4.1). — Chris Raybon



Coaching: Seahawks

Garrett’s career winning percentage (.566) isn’t far off Pete Carroll’s (.589). But while Garrett has had only three double-digit-win seasons in nine seasons and two winless postseason appearances over that span, Carroll’s teams have reached 10 wins in six of the past seven seasons with two Super Bowl appearances and one title.

Carroll has also become excellent at challenges, winning 8-of-11 since the start of the 2017 season. Garrett hasn’t posted a winning challenge record since 2014 (4-3), going 7-of-20 since.

And while Garrett’s impact on his team has often come into question — no better illustrated than his nickname, “the Clapper” — Carroll deserves a lot of credit for his.

He’s been one of the foremost implementers of sports science and mental health practices. He’s also maximized talent and demonstrated a willingness to play his best players regardless of draft pedigree (such as his decision to roll with Chris Carson as his No. 1 back over first-round pick Rashaad Penny).

And just when it appeared Carroll was losing the locker room — both literally, given last offseason’s mass exodus, as well as figuratively — he did well to overhaul his coaching staff and entrust Brian Schottenheimer and Ken Norton as his new coordinators despite questionable track records.


Replacing Tom Cable with Mike Solari was also a key hire who has turned around Seattle’s once-dismal offensive line.

Garrett’s staff has made strides as well, but it’s telling that his one key hire — defensive backs coach Kris Richard — formerly coached under Carroll. — Raybon

Special Teams: Seahawks

Seattle kicker Sebastian Janikowski has been a bit more consistent from makable distances, as Dallas’ Brett Maher has missed six kicks from shorter than 50 yards compared to Janikowski’s three. And while Maher is 6-for-7 from at least 50 yards, I ultimately trust Janikowski’s experience more.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are allowing opponents to return kicks 26.5 yards on average — the second-highest in the league. That could be dangerous against Lockett, who is averaging more than 25 yards per return.

The Seahawks’ kick coverage isn’t much better at 24.8 (sixth-highest), but the Cowboys have returned a league-low 13 kicks.


As for punting, both teams average only 5.7 yards per punt return (second-worst) and are nearly identical in punt return yardage allowed at pedestrian 8.4 (Seattle) and 8.5 (Dallas) marks. But the Seahawks will still have the advantage here thanks to Pro Bowl punter Michael Dickson.

I would be remiss not to mention that the Seahawks’ punting team almost cost them the game last week when they had two punts blocked by the Cardinals, including one returned for a touchdown.

The Seahawks have the overall edge on special teams, but not by much. These subpar units are much more likely to lose the game than win it.

Dickson’s leg could be the only real factor in terms of changing field position. — Stuckey

Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Cowboys

Both teams have had to overcome the loss of key starters this season, but the Cowboys seem to be in slightly better shape at the moment.

Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith (neck) and right guard Zack Martin (knee) are each expected to return after resting in Week 17.

Dallas’ only real question mark on offense is the status of left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo (ankle), while the defense could once again be without defensive tackles Tyrone Crawford (neck) and David Irving (ankle).

Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Doug Baldwin
The Seahawks are dealing with apparently serious injuries to Shaquill Griffin (ankle), left guard J.R. Sweezy (foot) and safety Bradley McDougald (knee) while left tackle Duane Brown (knee) failed to practice on either Tuesday or Wednesday.

No. 1 receiver Doug Baldwin (knee) and backup running back Mike Davis (foot) also aren’t 100%, but they are both tentatively expected to suit up.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS Edges
For the Seahawks: Lockett

Wilson and Lockett have been the NFL’s most efficient duo since joining forces in 2015. The only problem is Lockett’s lack of volume: The Seahawks’ overqualified field-stretcher never earned even eight targets in a game this season.

Still, he should have favorable matchups.

Lockett is $5,300 on DraftKings with a 94% Bargain Rating. He also boasts an 18.4-point projected ceiling in our FantasyLabs Models. — Hartitz




Prescott has always had a fantasy-friendly rushing floor, joining Cam Newton as the only quarterbacks in league history with at least five touchdowns on the ground in each of their first three seasons.

The 2018 version of Prescott took off even more after Cooper arrived, thanks to his increased efficiency as a passer.

2016: 67.8% completion rate, 7.99 yards per attempt, 229.2 yards per game, 5.8 TD-INT ratio
2017: 62.9% cmp, 6.78 Y/A, 207.8 yards per game, 1.7 TD-INT ratio
2018 before Cooper: 62.1% cmp, 6.88 Y/A, 202.4 yards per game, 2.0 TD-INT ratio
2018 with Cooper: 71.3%, 7.71 Y/A, 274.2 yards per game, 3.5 TD-INT ratio
Now Cooper gets to help Prescott overcome a Seahawks defense that’s limited the Cowboys to fewer than 200 passing yards in each of their past two matchups.

Dak is $5,500 on DraftKings and has a solid +2.2 Projected Plus/Minus in our FantasyLabs Models. — Hartitz




Bets to Watch

Seahawks +2: I bet this at +2.5, and I’d honestly bet it all the way to a pick’em.

Since Carroll and Garrett became the head coaches of their respective teams in 2010, Carroll is 4-2 straight-up and ATS in this head-to-head matchup.

The Seahawks are 3-0 ATS as underdogs against the Cowboys. Against Prescott, they’re 2-0 ATS. The Seahawks also easily covered as 1-point favorites in Week 3 with their 24-13 win.

The Seahawks have the better coach and better quarterback. They’ve already beaten the Cowboys this season. And they have a better record of postseason success.

I’m a Cowboys fan, so I freely admit that I can’t be objective here. But I see the Seahawks winning this game more often than not. — Freedman

Under 43: These teams have played basically every season in the Garrett era. And in their past four meetings, the Cowboys have one touchdown on 33 drives. Even in what was essentially a “playoff elimination game” in 2017, Dallas scored 12 points and turned it over three times.

I think a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott, conservative play-calling and relying on defense is in the cards for Dallas.

And with a couple offensive linemen banged up, Seattle allowed a lot of pressure last week while trying to reconfigure. The Cowboys should exploit those same weaknesses to make things difficult on Wilson.

I don’t like either offense here and make this game closer to 40-41 despite ideal stadium conditions. — Ken Barkley



Chris Carson rushing touchdown (-110): Carson has scored a rushing touchdown in four straight games and in six of his past seven, so clearly the Seahawks are focused on feeding on him, especially in the red zone.

Carson also enters the playoffs with 100-plus rushing yards in three straight games for the first time in his career, averaging a robust 5.3 yards per carry.

The one stat I love during that stretch: Carson has 11 rushes for 10 or more yards and only eight rushes for negative yards.

The Cowboys have allowed a rushing touchdown in three straight games (five in total), which is by far the most rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed over a three-game span this season.

I’ll roll with Carson finding the end zone, especially behind a Seahawks’ O-line that’s ranked in a tie for fifth in power success, which should help Carson get to pay dirt.
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Old 01-05-2019, 10:27 AM
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Bookmaker Roundup: Vegas Sportsbooks Rooting for Chalk on Wild Card Weekend

Adam Staple
3 hours ago

NFL

Las Vegas Bookmakers are seeing an interesting betting trend for the opening round of the postseason.
Public bettors are backing the underdog in three of the four NFL playoff games this weekend.
LAS VEGAS — It’s Wild Card Weekend in Las Vegas, Nevada and the sportsbooks are buzzing as an unpredictable regular season is about to give way to what looks like a terrific slate of matchups over the weekend.

Often we see one game on the first weekend playoff card that seems weaker than the others but that is definitely not the case this time around and the betting market confirms that as three of the four games feature spreads of three points or less.

That has made for a very interesting betting market and we spoke with some of Las Vegas’ biggest Bookmakers to help figure out what it all means.



Saturday NFL Wild-Card Playoffs Betting: All You Need to Know for Colts-Texans, Seahawks-Cowboys
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-1) | Over/Under: 48.5
This first game of the playoffs has coin toss written all over it.

Plenty of bettors have suggested the Texans were a fraud after a nine-game winning streak put them in the driver’s seat in the AFC South. Even though Houston had a fairly easy schedule, they took care of business and their key players stayed on the field for the whole season.

The Colts made a fantastic recovery after a 1-5 start and are one of the hottest teams heading into the tournament. Indianapolis finished the season 9-1 including a win over Houston a few weeks back.

John Murray, director of the Westgate SuperBook, says they’ve taken bets on both sides of the line in this one.

“There’s good two-way action on this game so far,” Murray said. “We did take a $30,000 bet on the Texans and there’s been a lot of moneyline action on Houston at -125 currently.”




Jason Simbal, a sportsbook executive at CG Technology, echoed Murray’s sentiment for this weekend’s opener.

“Of the four playoff games, this is the most evenly bet. It’s a very even ticket count,” Simbal noted. “Just over 50% of the bets are on the Colts. The money is so even on this one that we are actually looking at a black number on the results for both teams which certainly works out well for us.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we have to move the spread because of the moneyline Colts bets,” Simbal explained. “I think the public will remain on the Colts simply because we’re seeing the Colts come up more on parlays and teasers than Houston. We’re currently at -2 which is one of the highest lines for the Texans around town, but I think we’ll be around -1 by Saturday.”

William Hill’s director of trading, Nick Bogdanovich, said sharp bettors have come in on the road team.

“We’re about even on the betting in the ticket count on this game with the Colts having a slight edge at the the moment. But we’re seeing some sharp action on Indy as a small underdog,” Bogdanovich commented. “But there’s also been solid action on the Texans money line at -125. I’m not sure we’ll have a preference in this spot but the action is heavy on this game. It’s currently the biggest bet game of the four by quite a bit.”

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2) | Over/Under: 43
This meeting features two teams that generally get a lot of betting support so it’s not surprising that the bookmakers are expecting huge numbers.

“This is another game with a very good two-way handle. We did take a bet for $20,000 bet on the Cowboys at -2,” Murray said. “We’ve seen some steady Seahawks money since then. This one should come down to the 4th quarter. This will be a very high-handle game between two high-profile teams in prime time. I see this as another tossup that could easily go either way.”

A big bettor at CG Technology played the Seahawks a few times at +2.5, causing their line to budge to Dallas -2. And since then, a surprising pattern has emerged.

“We’ve seen way more action on the Seahawks. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks are the public side. That’s a rare thing to say in a Dallas game in prime time,” Simbal said. “I was surprised how lopsided the betting is. We’re currently seeing two times as many bets on Seattle as Dallas here and they’re betting Seattle money line at +110.”

The total has also drawn some sharp attention at CG, according to Simbal.

“One more thing to add, the sharp money is getting bet heavy on the over of 43. We opened at 41.5 and they took it at that number and 42.5 without batting an eye. I would expect it to go up a tick or two before Saturday night.”

The public seems to be backing Seattle at William Hill too.




“Our ticket count is 6 to 4 on Seattle so far with moneyline bets heavy on the Seahawks as well,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ve gotten some sharp action on Seattle’s side since the line opened at +120. It’s currently at +110 and could go down further. As for the total, it’s definitely leaning heavy on the over and I expect that to go up as well.”

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) | Over/Under: 41.5
The market for this game is pretty interesting as most sportsbooks around town were trying their best to stay off the key number of -3.

“We’re at Baltimore -2.5 -120. We’re trying hard not to go to -3 as are most of the books around town,” Simbal said. “But I think it’s eventually going to happen. I think once it does, that’s when you’ll see the Chargers money come in pretty heavy. I think the sharps and are waiting to pounce on it. The public doesn’t seem to be waiting though. They like the Chargers. So that makes the first three games we discussed that the public side is the underdog.”




Bogdanovich said that William Hill already moved to Ravens -3 by the time we spoke and that bettors immediately began to hop on LA.

“We have been getting some steady sharp play towards the Ravens here too. However, our moneyline action is very high on LA and has been for a while. The total is 42 and it’s been trending over since the total opened. It’s over 2-1 on over tickets. I think it could go to 43 by Sunday,” Bogdanovich added.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-6.5) | Over/Under: 41
Believe it or not, bettors are backing Nick Foles for some more magic against the Bears on Sunday evening.

“The public seems to think Nick Foles will be Philly’s savior once again,” Simbal explained. “One regular customer we have made the biggest bet we’ve seen of all four playoff games on the Eagles at +215 on the money line. He took $25,000 on the Eagles.”

The story is a little different for spread bettors, as the Bears are attracting support as 6-point favorites.

“[Chicago] is definitely the favorite [the public] likes the best,” Simbal explained. “So if you take that one big bet away we’d need the Eagles pretty bad. Over two times the money and two times the tickets are on the Bears. Interestingly, we will do really badly if the Bears go and win the Super Bowl so we’re doubly Eagles fans here.”




Bogdanovich said that William Hill is seeing a generous amount of support for the underdog.

“Over half of the tickets written are on the Eagles at +6 and when you get to the money line bets, it’s more like 75% at +210 currently,” he explained. There’s been solid support for Philly ever since our line came out. I do think it could drop to possibly as low as +5 by late Sunday but we’ll see. There’s a slight preference towards the under of 41.5 here as well.”

The Westgate took a five-figure bet on the Eagles at +6, according to Murray.

“We took a $20K bet on the Eagles at +6 and moved to 5.5 but are back up to -6 as the majority of the bets have come in on the Bears. Historically speaking, the fourth and final game of each playoff weekend is a high handle game with a big liability to the book, as all the money line parlays and teasers that are alive will be going to that game.”
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SuperBook ... on IND-HOU

Texans open -2.5, dip to -1.5, now -2

"We've actually got quite a bit of liability to the Texans, large bets from house players. Sharp action on Colts, and we're happy to be on sharp side."
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:51 AM
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SuperBook ... on SEA-DAL

Cowboys open -2.5, low of -1.5, bouncing between -2 and -2.5 today.

"Significant 5-figure liability on Cowboys, spread and moneyline." That includes mid-5-figure Dallas bet early in week.

"So far, pretty heavy on the Cowboys. A ton of people betting Dallas moneyline. Makes us think wiseguys will like the Seahawks. We'll definitely be rooting for the Seahawks."
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:53 AM
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CG Technology ... on IND-HOU

Texans open -2.5, dip to 1.5, but "We put zero stock in that move" as sharps didn't take +2.5 or +2. "We think it's going back up based on that. Otherwise, sharps would've taken 2.5 with us."

Line did hit 2 earlier today, then back to 1.5. "We think the Colts are the square side. We think you'll see sharp money on Houston. If sharps don't bet Houston, we'll need the home favorite."
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:54 AM
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CG Technology ... on SEA-DAL

Cowboys between -2.5 and -2 all week, currently -2.5. Action running event.

"We don't think it gets to 3. That would be an automatic take with the Seahawks for sharp bettors."
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Old 01-05-2019, 01:25 PM
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@BetTheGreek: NFL Sharp Action
Colts (small)
Seahawks (small)
SEA-DAL over

m.twitter.com/BetTheGreek
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Old 01-05-2019, 03:09 PM
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Caesars Palace Books ...

Colts at Texans (-1.5, 48.5)

Action very even ... Slightly more money (56%) on Indy on the spread.
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Old 01-05-2019, 03:26 PM
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Market Update : IND vs. HOU


TIX COUNT = COLTS 1.25 to 1 ... OVER 2 to 1

MONEY BET = COLTS 2 to 1 ... OVER 2.5 to 1

Majority of Exotics Ties with Colts

Not as 1-Sided as appeared early in the week
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Old 01-05-2019, 03:28 PM
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SuperBook


Colts 49
Texans -1.5

63% tickets on Colts ... 53% money wagered on Texans


Seahawks 43.5
Cowboys -2.5

52% tickets on Seahawks ... 75% money wagered on Cowboys
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Old 01-05-2019, 03:30 PM
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Bookmaker ...

House will be rooting for the Colts in a high scoring affair

75% of all money is on Houston

61% on all money in on the Under

Sharp money pretty evenly divided
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Old 01-05-2019, 03:32 PM
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BetOnline

"Never seen cash split 50/50 like this"

51% on Texans -2
51% on Seahawks +2.5
51% on Ravens -3
50% on Bears -6.5
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Old 01-05-2019, 03:34 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Indy (+2) is currently receiving 53% of spread bets ... Over 48.5 is receiving 63% of tickets.
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Old 01-05-2019, 04:51 PM
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60% of the betting action at Sports Interaction like the Seahawks over the Cowboys
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Old 01-05-2019, 04:56 PM
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Caesars sportsbooks ...

About 2X more money on Cowboys vs. Seahawks ... money on Over
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Old 01-05-2019, 05:16 PM
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Texans -4.5 in 2nd half

Since 2003, playoff teams favored by more than 3 points in the 2nd half have gone 43-25-2 (63%) ATS.
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Old 01-05-2019, 06:50 PM
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MGM Race and Sports

Tons of public Seattle play helps overcome one bettor’s two 6-figure wagers on Cowboys ... Book in good spot.
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