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  #51  
Old 01-05-2019, 07:53 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline


55% of the cash on Seahawks +2.5
60% of cash on the Over (43.5)
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  #52  
Old 01-05-2019, 07:55 PM
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Market Update : SEA vs. DAL

TIX COUNT = Seahawks 1.5 to 1 ... OVER 4 to 1

MONEY BET = Seahawks 2.5 to 1 ... OVER 7 to 1

Plus Heavy live teaser exposure on Seattle
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  #53  
Old 01-05-2019, 07:57 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

51% on Cowboys (-2.5)
69% on Over (43)
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  #54  
Old 01-05-2019, 11:44 PM
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Favorites/underdogs split Saturday's wild-card games 1-1 SU with dogs going 2-0 ATS

Over/unders split 1-1 ... first-half faves/dogs split 1-1 ATS ... first-half unders 2-0 ... second-half faves 2-0 ATS ... second-half over/unders split 1-1
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  #55  
Old 01-05-2019, 11:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Since 1990, NFL playoff home favorites of 2.5 or less:

5-11 SU
2-13-1 ATS.

Since 2010,

3-7 SU
1-8-1 ATS.






Since 2000, playoff dogs of 2.5 or less in their first playoff game:

10-6 SU
12-2-2 ATS.

Avg Score: 24.1-20.7.

Since 2010,

5-3 SU

6-1-1 ATS.

Avg Score: 23.0-21.2.
Yup....as easy as this

Too bad i didnt follow it all the way
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  #56  
Old 01-06-2019, 07:20 AM
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MGM Race and Sports ...

Bettor who put down 6 figures on Cowboys first half/second half jumps all over Chargers for Sunday game at Ravens ... $365,000 total


$100,000 on Chargers +2.5 (even)

$100,000 +0.5 first half

$100,000 (+130) moneyline

$65,000 (+120) first-half moneyline
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  #57  
Old 01-06-2019, 07:23 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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MGM Race and Sports


Chargers at Ravens
65% of point spread tickets on Chargers ... 55% of money wagered on Ravens

Eagles at Bears
54% of point spread tickets on Bears ... 65% of money wagered on Bears
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  #58  
Old 01-06-2019, 09:23 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sports Insights Contributing Books


75% on Chargers (+3)
53% on Eagles (+6.5)
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  #59  
Old 01-06-2019, 09:26 AM
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Chargers In The Postseason (Since 2002)

SU Record: 4-6
ATS: Record: 6-4
Avg. Line: 1.7
O/U Record: 2-8
Avg. Total: 45.5


Ravens In The Postseason (Since 2002)

SU Record: 11-8
ATS: Record: 12-7
Avg. Line: 2.4
O/U Record: 8-11
Avg. Total: 41.4
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  #60  
Old 01-06-2019, 09:36 AM
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Teams sporting the higher average margin of victory for the year have won (21-11 SU) and covered the spread in two-thirds (20-10-2 ATS) of AFC Wild Card clashes since 2002. The Ravens own a 6.3 and the Chargers a 6.1 differential.


The “under” is 10-3-1 in AFC Wild Card contests when both teams enter off a win. A 39.6 average final score is coming up 3.5 points shy of a 43.1 total. The Ravens topped the Browns 26-24 in the regular-season finale, while the Chargers thrashed the Broncos 23-9 at Denver. Including NFC matchups in this span, this betting angle is 20-5-1 (80.0 percent) overall.


Since 2002, the “under” is 24-10 (70.6 percent) on Wild Card Weekend when road teams averaged fewer penalties on the season than their opponents. The Ravens ranked 27th in the NFL with 7.2 infractions per game, as opposed to 7.1 for the Chargers.


The AFC Wild Card loser averages 14.3 points per game in this span. The winner puts up 28.0 overall.


The “under” is 8-2 in the Chargers’ last 10 playoff games.


In eight postseason starts, QB Phillip Rivers leads the Chargers to 20.3 points per game, never scoring more than 28 in a contest.


Since 2002, the Chargers have covered the spread in four of five road playoff games. They are covering a 8.8 average line by 7.6 points per contest, winning two outright.


Head coach John Harbaugh is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS in the postseason. His defense yields 19.3 points per game. It allows 92.1 average rushing yards and forces 2.8 takeaways per tilt.


Harbaugh is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as a playoff betting favorite, covering a -5.2 average line by a whopping 10.5 points per game. His defense has allowed 9, 7, 13, and 9 points.

Since 2002, the “under” is a perfect 4-0 at M&T Bank Stadium. A 31.0 average final score is falling 9.6 points shy of a 40.6 average total. Only one team (Ravens 2012) has put up more than 20 points.
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  #61  
Old 01-06-2019, 09:42 AM
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Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Vegas ...


Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5

“We’re at Baltimore -2.5 (-120). I see some 3s out there,” Osterman said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we went to 3. Money has been pretty one-sided on the Ravens, as far as the pointspread is concerned. Nothing sharp is coming in on the Chargers. They might be waiting for us to hit 3.

“But we have had some people taking the Chargers on moneyline parlays, so we have pretty decent liability there.”

That said, The SuperBook is in an interesting spot for this 1:05 p.m. ET kickoff. The book needs the Chargers for the game itself, but there’s more to it than just that game.

“The Ravens are significantly better for us in the futures book,” Osterman said of Super Bowl liability. “We do well on both teams, but to get the Ravens here, that would be pretty nice. We’ll take a small hit now in order to get a big gain later.”



Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears – Open: -4.5; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5

“We didn’t take any money on this game until we got to 5.5,” Osterman said, noting The SuperBook went from Bears -4.5 to -5.5 very quickly on market moves. “Then we took money on the Bears -5.5 and -6. But we also got quite a bit of Eagles money at +6. Since we went to 6.5 (Saturday morning), we’ve seen very balanced pointspread action.”

The same couldn’t be said of moneyline play.

“It seems to be almost all Eagles on the moneyline. It’s the playoffs, you give somebody +225, they’re willing to take a shot on that,” Osterman said, before noting The SuperBook is in a similar situation on this game as it is on Chargers-Ravens. “We’ll need the Bears for the game, but in the futures book, we’re getting killed with Bears money. If the Eagles can win outright, that’d be awesome for our book.”
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  #62  
Old 01-06-2019, 09:48 AM
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The Ravens have been hot down the stretch — they had to be just to make the postseason. Their impressive run was perhaps highlighted by their win in Los Angeles against the Chargers, in fact.

However, the Ravens are getting hardly any support as a three-point home favorite on Sunday. Their support has actually been dropping as the week has gone on, making the Chargers one of the trendiest underdogs in playoff history.


Dating back to 2003, there has only been one playoff underdog with more than 70% of bets — the 49ers vs. the Seahawks in the divisional round of the 2013 season. They closed with 74% of bets, but were hardly even a dog. The line closed at a pick ’em, but the juice was in Seattle’s favor per Bet Labs.

The Chargers had been around 70% of bets for most of the week, but reached 75% of bets this morning. Typically, lopsided betting percentages drop as kick off approaches, but that hasn’t been the case for the Chargers thus far.

The trendiest true underdog in playoff history closed with 68% of bets. That was back in 2008 when the Giants were +7 in the divisional round against the Cowboys. They’d go on to win that game outright. They also won another game as a dog later in the postseason…


Historically, dogs have covered at a 55.6% rate in the playoffs in general and 55.9% when getting the majority of spread bets. Though both of the two trendiest dogs on file have covered, dogs with at least 60% of bets have gone 6-7 against the spread.

In the regular season, dogs with 70% of bets or more have gone 36-33-2 ATS.
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  #63  
Old 01-06-2019, 10:12 AM
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SuperBook


Chargers 42
Ravens -2.5 (-120)

61% tickets on Chargers ... 66% money wagered on Ravens


Eagles 41.5
Bears -6.5

67% tickets on Bears ... 56% money wagered on Eagles
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  #64  
Old 01-06-2019, 10:43 AM
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CG Technology ... on LAC-BAL

Ravens open -3, bounce between 2.5 and 3 all week

CG rooting for Baltimore by double digits. "We are going to need a Ravens win of more than 10 points, to beat some teasers."
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  #65  
Old 01-06-2019, 10:44 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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NFL Wild Card Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting Chargers-Ravens, Eagles-Bears

PJ Walsh
1 hour ago

NFL
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Sharp bettors are playing both of Sunday's NFL Wild Card games, including Chargers-Ravens (1:05 p.m. ET, CBS) and Eagles-Bears (4:40 p.m. ET, NBC).
Using The Action Network's betting tools, we examine how professionals are betting these two games.
Saturday’s NFL Wild Card games provided quite the rollercoaster for bettors. The Indianapolis Colts got off to a smoking hot start against the Houston Texans and easily covered the spread (+2), but gave the 64% of bettors who took the over false hope by failing to score a point after midway through the second quarter.

The late game between the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys provided one of the craziest backdoor covers in recent memory after Seattle, trailing by 10 points, scored a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining in the game.

But with kicker Sebastian Janikowski unavailable to kick the extra point due to an injury suffered earlier in the game, the Seahawks were forced to attempt the two-point conversion, which they did successfully, covering the 2.5-point closing spread despite ultimately losing, 24-22.



Sunday NFL Wild-Card Mega Preview: How to Bet Chargers-Ravens, Eagles-Bears
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While yesterday’s games were certainly exciting, there wasn’t much of a consensus regarding how professional bettors were playing those matchups.

However, according to The Action Network’s betting tools, we can quickly see how wiseguys are betting both Chargers-Ravens and Eagles-Bears.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
1:05 p.m. ET | CBS

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 42 to 41.5)

Oddsmakers opened this over/under at 42 and, at first glance, it appears that sportsbooks are heavy on over money as 65% of tickets are on that side of the total.

However, The Action Network’s public betting data reveals that 62% of actual dollars wagered have played the under.

This means that while the majority of tickets are on the over, the bigger bets are banking on a low-scoring game.




Sportsbooks have reacted by dropping the total down to 41.5 across the betting market.

Sharps are likely eyeing a few different factors: The Chargers play at the slowest pace of any team in the league, the Ravens’ run-heavy scheme tends to drain the clock the forecast, and — not to be overlooked — the weather.

Forecasts call for steady 12 mph winds throughout the game. According to our Bet Labs data, NFL games played in double-digit breezes have gone under the total 55.9% of the time since 2003.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
4:40 p.m. ET | NBC

Sharp angle: Bears (-4.5 to -6.5)

Market-setting sportsbooks opened Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite over Philadelphia and money has steadily flowed on the Bears throughout the week.

While 53% of tickets wagered on the spread are taking the points with Philly, the majority (54%) of real money wagered has come in on Chicago, indicating that the Bears are attracting larger amounts from respected bettors.
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  #66  
Old 01-06-2019, 10:45 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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unday NFL Wild-Card Mega Preview: All the Betting Angles for Chargers-Ravens, Eagles-Bears

Action Network Staff
1 hour ago

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All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.

NFL Playoffs Betting Odds: Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -3
Over/Under: 41.5
Time: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
TV channel: CBS
Betting Market
With more than 70% of spread bets, the Chargers are the most popular team of the weekend. It appears to be mostly public bets, though, as the line hasn’t moved nearly as much as it has for the other trendy dogs.

They remain at the opener of +3 at some books or at a heavily juiced +2.5 at others (you can find the updated odds here). — Mark Gallant

Weather Report
Wind could potentially be a factor in this game. The forecast is currently calling for 14 mph winds blowing across the field, but temperature and precipitation should not impact anything.

The Ravens are pretty well set up for windy games, as Lamar Jackson doesn’t air out passes too often, while Justin Tucker is perhaps the best kicker in the league. — Gallant




Trends to Know
The Chargers will play their seventh playoff game as a franchise in an early time slot (1:30 p.m. ET or earlier), with the six previous games coming on the road obviously due to the time difference.

The Chargers are 4-2 straight up in this spot. Philip Rivers started two of those games for the Chargers and is 2-0 SU and against the spread, covering the spread by 19 points per game, per our Bet Labs data.

Since 1990, any team based outside the Eastern time zone is 6-18 (25%) straight up and 11-12-1 ATS when playing at 1:30 p.m. ET or earlier in the playoffs.

Pacific time zone teams are 4-6 straight up in this spot, going 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS over the last decade. — Evan Abrams




The Chargers are the most popular underdog bet of wild-card weekend. Since 2003, popular dogs in the playoffs, teams receiving at least 55% of bets, have gone 27-17-1 ATS. — John Ewing

The Ravens are 7-1 in the wild-card round all-time. Their one loss came at home against the Titans in a quarterback matchup of Steve McNair vs. Anthony Wright.

Only three of those eight wild card games came at home. The Ravens’ two previous Super Bowl championships came during years in which it played in the wild-card round.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is 3-0 in his career in wild-card games — the latest coming in the Chargers most recent playoff win: at Cincinnati in 2013. — Stuckey

Did you know? The Ravens only beat one playoff team this season: the Chargers — Stuckey



Biggest Mismatch
When Ravens have the ball: Ravens rushing attack vs. Chargers linebackers

Everyone knows by now how the Ravens offense did a 180 after Joe Flacco went down with an injury. Since Jackson took over, Baltimore has transformed from one of the NFL’s worst rushing offenses to one of the most prolific ground games we have ever seen:

vs. Bengals: Jackson 26 rushes for 119 (Team 53 for 267) | 19 pass attempts
vs. Raiders: 11 for 71 (43 for 242) | 25 attempts
vs. Falcons: 17 for 75 (49 for 207) | 26 attempts
vs. Chiefs: 13 for 71 (39 for 198) | 26 attempts
vs. Buccaneers: 18 for 95 (49 for 242) | 23 attempts
vs. Chargers: 13 for 39 (35 for 159) | 22 attempts
vs. Browns: 20 for 90 (47 for 296) | 24 attempts
In the seven starts since Jackson has taken over (6-1 record), the Ravens have run the ball 315 times for 1,611 yards; that’s an average of 5.1 yards per carry, which would’ve led the league for the full season.

They are running it exactly 45 times per game — or a single season pace of 720, which would break the 1977 Raiders’ single season record of 681 carries.

It’s also a pace of 3,682 yards, which would shatter the 1978 Patriots’ single-season record of 3,165 yards.

And it all starts with Jackson, who has rushed the ball 118 times for 560 yards (4.7 average). That’s a full season pace of 1,280 yards. Michael Vick holds the single-season quarterback rushing record with 1,039 yards (2006).


Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8).
The Ravens have had a stunning total play advantage over their opponents during that stretch:

Bengals: 75-54
Raiders: 69-56
Falcons: 77-45
Chiefs: 68-83
Buccaneers: 74-47
Chargers: 60-57
Browns: 73-56
Baltimore has averaged 14 more plays per game than its opponents. The Ravens are going to run the ball 45 times and throw it half as much.

With that said, the Ravens have faced an extremely friendly schedule of rush defenses during this stretch.

Six of their seven opponents allow 4.7 yards per rush or worse, which puts them all in the bottom third of the NFL. The one opponent that didn’t? The Chargers, who both the Ravens and Jackson had their lowest rushing output against.

The Ravens should keep up the rushing volume (which will help the under) and the Chargers are above average against the run (10th per DVOA and 12th in rush yards per attempt) — although PFF ranks them the fifth-worst.



Bookmaker Roundup: Vegas Sportsbooks Rooting for Chalk on Wild Card Weekend
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Their starting linebackers for this weekend will be Hayes Pullard, Kyle Emanuel and Uchena Nwossu, none of whom have played more than 250 snaps.

It’s tough to replace the losses of three starting linebackers (Denzel Perryman, and now Jatavis Brown) — especially against this offense. I’m sure you’ll see Pro-Bowl special-teamer Adrian Phillips play linebacker, as well, but that’s a tough ask against Baltimore’s power runners.

The Ravens’ offensive line ranks No. 1 in Power Success Rate and No. 3 in Stuff Rate. The Chargers’ defensive front ranks 23rd and 18th, respectively.

Bottom line: Baltimore will run it 40-plus times, which will completely neutralize the entire strength of the Chargers defense.

When the Ravens do need to pass, they will benefit from left tackle Ronnie Stanley (third highest tackle pass-blocking grade in the NFL, per PFF) being able to take on Melvin Ingram 1-on-1. — Stuckey

When Chargers have the ball: Ravens defensive line vs. Chargers offensive line

In the first matchup, the Ravens won with their defensive front, which had Rivers under pressure from the first play of the game.

Baltimore blitzed at the third-highest rate in the NFL during the season and there’s no reason to think they’ll they won’t dial up the pressure even more in front of a raucous home crowd.

Of the 64 offensive tackles who played at least 500 offensive snaps this season, Sam Tevi ranks dead last in pass blocking with a 39.4 grade, per PFF.


Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports, Pictured; Baltimore Ravens linebacker Za’Darius Smith (90)
And the picture doesn’t get much better inside. Guard Dan Feeney has a 38.7 pass blocking grade — second-worst among 63 guards (min. 500 snaps). Michael Schofield has been better at 69.7, but still not top 30. And Mike Pouncey ranks 24th among centers (500 snaps).

The Ravens pressure scheme (No. 6 in Adjusted Sack Rate) should once again give Rivers fits and wreak havoc in the backfield.

I’m not sure how much the Chargers can do — even if this is the second time they’ve seen this scheme — especially since the Ravens have the secondary talent to press on the outside.

Also — and this is important — Rivers snapping the ball as the game clock is about to expire on every play doesn’t help his offensive line stop a Ravens pass rush that can get a good jump as a result — Stuckey

Who Has the Advantage in Key Areas?
Quarterback: Ravens

This choice may seem counterintuitive given that Rivers is a 15-year vet who has made more career playoff starts (9) than Jackson has made in the regular season, but this is a brutal spot for Rivers.

He had his worst performance of the season (23-of-37, 181 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks) against the Ravens two weeks ago.

After posting 9.1 yards per attempt, 2.2 touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions per game while getting sacked 1.9 times per game over his first 13 games, Rivers has averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt, 1.0 touchdowns, 2.0 interceptions, and 3.0 sacks over his past three games, with multiple interceptions in each game.

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philip Rivers
This downturn coincided with a drop-off in rushing efficiency from 122.1 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry over the first 13 games to 95.3 and 4.1 respectively over the past three.

With a banged-up Melvin Gordon (ankle) and Austin Ekeler (groin) facing a defense that ranked sixth in rushing DVOA, running the ball could again be an issue.

Jackson’s ability to be a one-man rushing attack is the equalizer against a defense missing it’s top-graded interior run defender by Pro Football Focus, Cory Luiget, as well as the two linebackers who have played the most snaps in run defense for them this season in Brown and Perryman.

Jackson had more rushing yards after two career carries (7) than Rivers has in 32 starts over the past two seasons (5).

And though the primary knock on Jackson’s trustworthiness is that we simply haven’t seen him attempt many passes or execute a high-volume passing attack, suggesting he’d be in trouble late in games if his team fell behind, Jackson has been far better as a passer when trailing (118.7 passer rating) than leading (56.7), and in the second half (104.9) compared to the first half (72.4), particularly excelling in the fourth quarter (120.4).

Rivers, meanwhile, has posted his worst passer rating in the fourth quarter (97.1, down from 105.5 overall), particularly struggling when trailing with less than four minutes or two minutes remaining (77.7, 52.1). — Chris Raybon


Wild Card Weather: Chargers-Ravens, Eagles-Bears Expecting Windy Conditions
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Coaching: Ravens

Though Anthony Lynn has gone 21-11 in his first two seasons as a head coach of the Chargers, his resume is still no match for John Harbaugh, who boasts a 104-72 regular-season record, 10-5 playoff record, and a Super Bowl title in 2012, with only one losing season in 11 years as head coach of the Ravens.

Lynn is hesitant when it comes to challenges, which could be the difference in what’s expected to be a close game, as he’s challenged just five times over the past two seasons, winning two, while Harbaugh has gone 8-of-13 over that span. — Raybon

Special Teams: Ravens

The Chargers have improved on special teams as the year has progressed, primarily after signing kicker Mike Badgley, who is 15-of-16 on field goal attempts and 27-of-28 on extra points.

However, that is not a huge sample size and we are talking about a rookie kicker who went 3-of-8 from 40-plus yards while at the University of Miami last season. How much do you trust him on the road in the cold, pressure-packed environment?

Plus, you know, the Ravens have Justin Tucker — the most accurate kicker in NFL history.

Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker (9).
When it comes to punting, the Ravens have the advantage again. Baltimore will send out the wily vet Sam Koch, while the Chargers punting has been atrocious all season. LA ranks last in net punting at an average of 38.5 yards.

Both teams have solid return games. Desmond King is a dynamic returner for the Chargers, while the Ravens field the electric combo of Chris Moore (kick return) Cyrus Jones (punt return).

Not only do the Ravens rank in the top five in punt return average, but Jones’ 14.4 average would actually lead the NFL if he qualified.

Each team has similar coverage units, although the Chargers have performed a little better on kick coverage — thanks in large part to Adrian Phillips, who made the Pro Bowl as a special-teamer.


NFL Betting Tip: Should Bettors Fade Trendy Underdogs in the Playoffs?
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However, even here, the Ravens have a touchback percentage of more than 63%, while the Chargers rank dead last at 30.68%.

Badgley struggles to get the ball to the end zone, so Moore should have plenty of opportunities to break a big one in a game where field position could mean everything. — Stuckey

Injury Report
Both teams are astoundingly healthy after 17 weeks of action. Only left guard Alex Lewis (shoulder) and slot corner Tavon Young (groin) were listed on the Ravens’ early-week injury report. Both players are tentatively expected to suit up Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are expected to have running backs Melvin Gordon (ankle) and Austin Ekeler (groin), and reportedly even tight end Hunter Henry (knee).

Still, head coach Anthony Lynn clarified that Henry would be on a “pitch count” if active this week.

Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Melvin Gordon
The largest issue for the Chargers is the continued absences of front-seven stalwarts Corey Liuget (quad, IR) and Denzel Perryman (knee) against the Ravens’ run-heavy offense.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS Edge
For the Ravens: Jackson

The most impressive aspect of Jackson’s game has been his consistency has a rusher, as his five games with at least 70 rushing yards has only been bested by Russell Wilson (six such games in 2014) and Robert Griffin (six such games in 2012).

The Ravens’ rookie quarterback finished the season with 695 rushing yards, third-most by any rookie quarterback in league history.

Jackson obviously needs to continue to grow as a passer, but his numbers surprisingly aren’t far off from what we saw from Flacco in his rookie season.

Jackson in 2018: 58.2% cmp | 3.5% TD rate | 7.1 Y/A | 84.5 QB Rating
Flacco in 2008: 60% cmp | 3.3% TD rate | 6.9 Y/A | 80.3 QB Rating
There’s plenty of value behind Jackson at $5,800 on DraftKings, as his +3.04 Projected Plus/Minus is easily the highest mark among all quarterbacks this weekend in our FantasyLabs Models. — Hartitz

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson
For the Chargers: Allen

Keenan Allen’s annual second-half breakout featured at least 100 yards and/or a touchdown from Weeks 9-14, but he has battled a hip injury and posted pedestrian 0-0-0, 5-58-0 and 4-64-0 lines over the Chargers’ past three games against the Chiefs, Ravens and Broncos, respectively.

Meanwhile, both Mike Williams (1-7-0) and Tyrell Williams (1-12-0) were shut down in the Chargers’ first matchup against Ravens. It’s not surprising that the Ravens ranked as a top three defense in DraftKings points per game, Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating allowed to wide receivers this season (per our NFL Trends tool).

Still, Allen represents the Chargers’ best chance at cracking the Ravens’ cheat-code of a secondary considering his status as Rivers’ No. 1 receiver and the fact that Ravens slot corner Tavon Young (groin) is banged up.

Allen costs $6,900 on DraftKings and has a solid 24.3-point projected ceiling in our FantasyLabs Models. — Hartitz



Bets to Watch
Ravens -3 | Under 41.5

I already mentioned how dominant the Ravens’ pass rush was and should be again vs. the Chargers offensive line. It also helps to have a suffocating secondary that can play press coverage on the outside, which makes that pressure even more effective.

Rivers and the Chargers’ second overall pass offense DVOA should struggle once again against Baltimore’s third overall pass defense DVOA.

Gordon getting banged up late in Week 17 could have been huge news and still may be — although it seems as if he avoided a high ankle sprain. Gordon had a stretch of five consecutive games with at least 120 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown earlier this season — something that hasn’t been done since 2007 (Jamaal Charles).

However, Austin Ekeler actually averaged more yards per carry this season (5.2 vs. Gordon’s 5.1) — both of which ranked in the top eight. But Ekeler is also dealing with an injury.

This is a Ravens team that only allowed 3.7 yards per attempt, thanks in large part to their play up the middle at linebacker (C.J. Mosley ranks top-15 in run defense) and safety (Eric Weddle ranks top-10 among safeties), in addition to two extremely solid run-stoppers on the interior in Brent Urban and Brandon Williams (both top-20 in run defense among interior defenders, per PFF).

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Tucker
The Chargers ran the ball 16 times for 51 yards in the first matchup. I do expect them to run the ball a lot more to neutralize the pass rush (which will help the under even more) — but I don’t expect them to have a ton of success.

I expect the Chargers to use their backs more in the passing game than they did in the first meeting to try and neutralize the pass rush and provide check downs for when Rivers is under attack.

The one problem? The Ravens’ pass defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL against opposing running backs, per Football Outsiders.

The one area Baltimore has struggled to defend at times is opposing tight ends (22nd per Football Outsiders). Over their past 14 games, the Ravens defense has allowed only 16 passing touchdowns (while gobbling up nine interceptions).

Of those 16, six came against opposing tight ends (Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Matt Lengel, Jared Cook, Austin Hooper, Travis Kelce). But Chargers haven’t utilized their tight ends a ton this year — and I don’t expect many snaps or an explosion in production from Henry in his first game back from injury.

While the Chargers won’t be phased by playing in a hostile environment, I think the Ravens can feed off of one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and carry a lead into the half.

I’m rolling with the Ravens and the under (split between full game and half). — Stuckey


NFL Playoffs Betting Odds: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Spread: Bears -6.5
Over/Under: 41
Time: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
TV channel: NBC
Betting market
Though there was some market disagreement as to where this line should open, things have been quite stable since. Chicago has sat at -6/-6.5 at most books for the majority of the week and is the only favorite to receive the majority of spread bets (54%) at the time of writing (see live betting data here).

There was some early movement toward Philly, but that didn’t last for long. There hasn’t, however, been any push from sharp bettors to drive the Bears to -7.

Over/under bets and dollars are both essentially split down the middle. But the total has dropped a half point at most books down to 41, which may have something to do with the forecast. — Mark Gallant



Weather report
Is that Bear weather I see in the forecast? It’s looking like it very well may be.

Right now, the temperature is expected to be in the mid-30s with wind speeds starting around 13 mph and reaching 16 mph by the end of the game. Unfortunately, no rain or snow appears to be in store. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know
Since 2003, teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season (Chicago) that are playing a team that did make the playoffs the year before (Philadelphia) have gone 8-22-1 against the spread overall.

When that team is listed as the favorite, it is just 2-7 ATS, per our Bet Labs data. — Evan Abrams

Tony Corrente is the head official for the Bears-Eagles Wild Card game on Sunday. Since 2010, home teams are 7-1 straight up in Corrente-officiated games. — Evan Abrams

Chicago won five games a season ago before going from worst to first in the NFC North. Since 2003, teams that won five or fewer games the season prior have gone 7-26 ATS in the playoffs. — John Ewing

Chicago went 12-4 this season, while Philadelphia managed a 9-7 record. Since 2003, the team with the better record has gone 61-84-3 (42%) ATS in the playoffs — John Ewing




Biggest Mismatches
Mismatch Bears can exploit: Bears WRs vs. Eagles CBs

Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller all practiced in full on Wednesday, so the Bears are set up wonderfully against the Eagles’ injury-riddled secondary, which has allowed a league-high 90.2 yards to opposing No. 1 wide receivers this season.

The Eagles don’t make a habit of moving their cornerbacks, so we can safely identify our probable matchups on the outside.

Spoiler: They’re all good for the Bears.

Robinson vs. Avonte Maddox: The Eagles’ fourth-round rookie is considered Pro Football Focus’ No. 60 overall safety this season.
Gabriel vs. Rasul Douglas: The Bears’ field-stretcher (4.4-second 40-yard dash) boasts a massive speed advantage over Douglas (4.59).
Miller vs. Cre’Von LeBlanc: The Eagles’ slot corner joined the team in Week 10 and has allowed 23-of-35 targets (66%) thrown into his coverage to be caught for 216 yards and a touchdown — good for a solid 92.1 quarterback rating.

Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Chicago Bears wide receiver Taylor Gabriel (18) and wide receiver Allen Robinson (12)
Mitchell Trubisky makes a habit of not zeroing in on a single receiver, but this might be the perfect strategy against an Eagles secondary that seemingly doesn’t have much of a hope of covering anybody. — Ian Hartitz

Mismatch Eagles can exploit: Eagles pass rush vs. Bears offensive line
The Eagles boast a scary-deep defensive line highlighted by …

Defensive end Brandon Graham (PFF’s No. 10 overall edge defender)
Defensive end Michael Bennett (No. 26)
Defensive end Chris Long (No. 29)
Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (No. 2 among all interior defenders)
Overall, the Eagles (55%) joined the Jaguars (57%) as the league’s only defenses to record a pressure on at least 55% of their opponent’s dropbacks this season.

This isn’t even really about Chicago’s offensive line. The Bears ranked No. 5 in terms of fewest pressures allowed this season and got three-time Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long back last week. It’s more about Mitchell Trubisky.

The UNC alumni ranked 36th among 39 quarterbacks in accuracy under pressure this season, meaning the Eagles have a chance of limiting the damage caused by their cornerbacks if they can find a way to rattle Trubisky. — Ian Hartitz



NFL Referee Betting Trends to Know for Wild Card Weekend
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Biggest Advantages
Quarterback: Eagles

Foles is the guy who passed for 971 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception in three postseason games last year en route to a world title. He’s also the guy who has a season with 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions to his name.

Mitch Trubisky is the other guy. – Chris Raybon

Coaching edge: Eagles

Both of these teams feature top offensive minds at head coach in Doug Pederson for the Eagles and Matt Nagy for the Bears, as well as well-coached defensive units with the Eagles being coordinated by Jim Schwartz and the Bears by Vic Fangio.

Though Fangio deserves the edge over Schwartz after overseeing the top defense in the league in terms of points allowed (17.7), and though Nagy deserves major credit for taking the Bears from 5-11 to 12-4 in his first season as head coach, I’d still give the Eagles staff the overall edge due to the experience it gained from last season’s Super Bowl run, which they accomplished despite Foles needing to fill in at quarterback for an injured Carson Wentz.


James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eagles head coach Doug Pederson
Pederson is more aggressive than Nagy, going 14-of-23 on fourth down this season, the second-most attempts and makes in the league, while Nagy attempted only 15 fourth-down conversions (T-20th) and made nine (14th).

Nagy also attempted only three challenges and is still looking for his first won challenge, while Pederson went 3-of-6 this year and has gone 12-of-23 in three seasons as head coach. – Chris Raybon

Special Teams: Eagles

While I think the Eagles will be at a disadvantage on offense and defense, they should have an advantage in two key areas: intangibles (experience, nothing to lose, coaching) and special teams.

Given their field goal kicking situation, the Bears arguably have the worst special teams unit of all of the playoff teams. Cody Parkey has made just 76.7% of his field goals this year. Only five teams in the NFL have a worse percentage.



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He’s also missed three from less than 40 and three extra points. With all of the talk surrounding his struggles leading up to this game, if Parkey misses an early kick and the Chicago crowd turns on him, it could get ugly for the former Eagle.

And while Jake Elliott has dealt with inconsistency issues on short field goals early on his career, we haven’t seen as much of that this year.

The Memphis product has connected on 26-of-31 field goals this season (good for a middle-of-the-road 83.9%), but only one of those five misses came from under 40 — and three came from over 50.

Elliott was also 33-of-35 on XPs. Not earth-shattering numbers, but significantly better than Parkey.

In terms of the punt game, things are pretty close to even, though the Eagles rank tied at the top of the NFL (with the Saints) in net punting at 45.0 yards. The Bears rank a very average 14th at 41.9.

However, the one area the Bears really excel at on special teams is punt returns, as Tarik Cohen’s 12.5 punt return average ranks fourth among qualified returners. The Eagles have struggled in this department, averaging just 6.5 yards per return.

Sproles won’t hurt Philly in the punt return game, but he just doesn’t have the same burst he once did — and certainly not the explosiveness Cohen currently owns.

Per Football Outsiders, the Eagles rank 12th overall in special teams DVOA, while the Bears rank 29th. And that feels like a fair representation of how these two respective units have performed this season.


Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott
Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Bears

Allen Robinson (ribs), Taylor Gabriel (shoulder) and Anthony Miller (shoulder) are tentatively expected to suit up Sunday after practicing in full on Wednesday.

The only question marks for Chicago revolve around stud safety Eddie Jackson (ankle) and outside linebacker Aaron Lynch (elbow).

And then there’s the Eagles.

Wide receiver Mike Wallace (ankle), linebacker D.J. Alexander (hamstring), left guard Isaac Seumalo (pec), cornerback Sidney Jones (hamstring), defensive end Michael Bennett (foot), defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (knee), center Jason Kelce (knee) and left tackle Jason Peters (quad) all were unable to get in a full practice to start the week.

The good news is head coach Doug Pederson already confirmed Nick Foles (ribs) is good to go for Sunday. — Ian Hartitz



NFL Power Ratings: Spreads That Are off Most for Wild Card Weekend
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DFS Edge
For the Bears: Chicago D/ST

The Bears will square off against an Eagles team that is implied for a slate-low 17.5 points, while Chicago checks in as the slate’s largest favorite, favored by six points.

Unsurprisingly, the Bears defense is tied with the Ravens for a slate-high in Ceiling Projection in the FantasyLabs Player Models.


Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jordan Howard and Khalil Mack.
The Bears have been one of the best teams at generating pressure this season, evidenced by their 34.5% pressure rate (fifth-highest), and their 3.13 sacks per game is the third-highest mark, per Sports Info Solutions.

Their defense has dominated in DFS this season, averaging a league-best 12.83 DraftKings points per game, with an average +4.93 Plus/Minus and 78% Consistency Rating.

For the Eagles: No one

Given how well the Bears defense is set up in this spot and how dominant they’ve been this year, it’s hard to make a case for any Eagles player on the road in Chicago. — Justin Bailey

Bets to watch
Eagles +6.5: After a Super Bowl-winning run last season and wins against the 13-3 Rams and 11-5 Texans over the past three weeks, the Eagles shouldn’t be written off with Foles at quarterback — even against a defense as good as Chicago’s.

Just ask the Vikings how well their vaunted defense fared against Foles in last year’s playoffs, when Foles passed for 353 yards and three touchdowns on Minnesota in a 38-7 Eagles win in the NFC Championship game.

Nagy deserves a lot of credit for turning the Bears around quickly, taking them from 5-11 to 12-4 in his first season with the team, but he’ll have his hands full trying to out-coach Pederson fresh off a Super Bowl run with Foles.

Historical trends also aren’t in Nagy and Co.’s favor, as John and Evan referenced earlier.




The Eagles have a real shot at winning this game, so I love them as by far the biggest underdog on the board. — Chris Raybon

Under 41: There are a handful of reasons to like this under. First, Philadelphia and Chicago aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts, ranking 16th and 20th, respectively, in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

On the other side of the ball, the Bears sport the league’s top defense, per DVOA. The Eagles’ defense is simply average at 15th in the NFL, but the Bears struggle throwing the ball, which should help Philly keep them in check.

In addition, these are two of the slowest teams in the league with Chicago ranking 27th and Philadelphia 30th in situation-neutral pace.

And don’t expect the weather to do these offenses any favors either. The current forecast is calling for steady winds of 13 mph and, according to Bet Labs, NFL games played in double-digit breezes have gone under the total 55.9% of the time since 2003.

In fact, unders are 70-53-4 (56.9%) in all NFL playoff games played outdoors since 2004
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CG Technology ... on PHI-CHI

"We need Bears by 1-5. That could change." ... "We don't need a Bears cover, though. Everything live will be going to the Bears."

CG books would love Chicago by a field goal at this point.
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Old 01-06-2019, 10:49 AM
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William Hill ... on LAC-BAL

"That game has monster, monster handle, but pretty dead even Two-way action."

Ravens open -3, spend a couple days early in week at 2.5, then back to 3
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Old 01-06-2019, 10:51 AM
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William Hill ... on PHI-CHI

"We're gonna need the Eagles outright. There are a lot of teasers to the Bears."

Chicago opens -5.5, up to -6.5
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Fan Duel Meadowlands ... on LAC-BAL

"Currently tickets about 2/1 in favor of LAC. We will want Ravens to cover."
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Old 01-06-2019, 10:55 AM
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Fan Duel Meadowlands ... on PHI-CHI

"Currently about 65% of the money and wagers are for the Eagles. It's an unusual day to be wanting two favored teams, but it's very much that way from here."
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Old 01-06-2019, 11:09 AM
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Caesars Palace Books

Chargers at Ravens (-3 (-105) ... 42)

2.5x more bets ... 2.5x as much money has been wagered on the Chargers
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Old 01-06-2019, 11:13 AM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Chargers (+135) ... 68% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars
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Old 01-06-2019, 11:16 AM
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Bet The Greek

Sharp Action

LAC-BAL over (small)
Bears (small)
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Old 01-06-2019, 11:25 AM
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Bookmaker

$$ hitting the Over in Baltimore ... Total up to 43
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