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  #76  
Old 01-06-2019, 10:44 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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No team has a home field advantage quite like the Ravens.

Since John Harbaugh arrived in '08, Baltimore has won 74% of home games and just 44% of road games, the largest disparity in the NFL.
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  #77  
Old 01-06-2019, 11:13 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bookmaker

Public: 22% Bets & 71% $ on Chargers
Sharp: 31% Bets & 60% $ on Ravens

Public: 68% Bets & 74% $ on Over
Sharp: 53% Bets & 80% $ on Over
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  #78  
Old 01-06-2019, 11:24 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Chargers (3-13) ATS (1Q) on Road under A Lynn


2018
0-0 @ Den (L)
0-14 @ KC (L)
7-13 @ Pit (L)
0-3 @ Oak (L)
6-7 @ Sea (L)
7-0 @ Cle (W)
6-14 @ LAR (L)
14-0 @ Buf (W)

2017
0-0 @ NYJ (L)
0-3 @ KC (L)
0-0 @ Dal (L)
0-6 @ Jax (L)
7-0 @ NE (W)
0-7 @ Oak (L)
0-9 @ NYG (L)
0-7 @ Den (L)
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  #79  
Old 01-06-2019, 11:25 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Bears (1Q) at Home (8-0) ATS

7-0 vs GB (W)
3-3 vs LAR (W)
3-0 vs Min (W)
13-0 vs Det (W)
7-0 vs NYJ (W)
10-7 vs NE (W)
14-0 vs TB (W)
7-0 vs Sea (W)


Eagles (1Q) on Road (2-6) ATS

3-0 @ Was (W) Foles
3-7 @ LAR (L) Foles
0-3 @ Dal (L)
0-10 @ NO (L)
0-3 @ Jax (L) Wembley
14-3 @ NYG (W)
0-3 @ Ten (W)
0-7 @ TB (L)
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  #80  
Old 01-06-2019, 11:41 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Baltimore is 86-2 ATS in franchise history as a home fav of 7 or less +10 extra points
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  #81  
Old 01-06-2019, 11:46 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline

"House will be huge Ravens fans"

68% of cash on Chargers +3
65% of cash on Chargers (+129)
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  #82  
Old 01-06-2019, 11:58 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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A bettor just placed a $300,000 bet on the Ravens (-3) at the William Hill sportsbook at the Ocean Resort Casino in Atlantic City
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  #83  
Old 01-06-2019, 01:41 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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2nd half spread ... Ravens -3.5

Since 2003, teams favored by 3 or more points in 2nd half have gone 54-37-6 ATS.
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  #84  
Old 01-06-2019, 03:29 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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MGM Race and Sports

Book now has a decision on game, needing Eagles.

Took a $260K bet on Bears moneyline -260, to win $100K.

“We need the Eagles now, for a decent amount.” Eagles outright would also clear out MGM’s largest Super Bowl liability.
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  #85  
Old 01-06-2019, 03:34 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Underdogs 10-1 ATS last post-season

Now 3-0 ATS to start this post-season
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  #86  
Old 01-06-2019, 03:39 PM
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Worst-case scenario for SuperBook ... Bears win but don't cover.

Best case is Eagles outright

Most teasers still alive.
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  #87  
Old 01-06-2019, 06:57 PM
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Road teams & underdogs both 4-0 ATS on wild-card weekend

Unders 3-1

First-half dogs went 3-1 ATS ... first-half unders went a perfect 4-0 ... second-half faves were 3-1 ATS ... second-half overs went 3-1
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  #88  
Old 01-07-2019, 07:55 AM
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Bookmaker

Where's the money at? (Way too early AFC Openers edition)

IND 56.5
KC -6

Opened -4/55.5

63% of $$ on KC ... 57% of wager count on IND
78% of the $$ on over


LAC
NE -4.5

Opened -5/ 47.5

81% of $$ on LAC ... 73% of wager count on SD
Money on the total split down the middle
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  #89  
Old 01-07-2019, 07:57 AM
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Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, KC is 4-16 SU and 3-17 ATS in the playoffs, including 0-9 ATS at home.
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  #90  
Old 01-07-2019, 09:31 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bookmaker

Where's the money? (NFC First 24 hours edition)

DAL 49.5
LAR -7

Opened -6.5/50

76% of $$ on Rams ... 54% of bets on Rams
$$ split on total


PHI 51
NO -9

Opened -7.5

60% of $$ on NO ... 53% of bets on Phi
Sharp $$ favoring NO
Total $$ split down the middle
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  #91  
Old 01-07-2019, 09:40 AM
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QB’s making 1st Career Post Season start (vs a QB not making his 1st Start)

4-29 SU ... as a home FAV 4-13 ATS

Jackson (Ravens) ❌
Trubisky (Bears) ❌
Watson (Texans) ❌

Now 4-32 SU & 4-16 ATS at home


Mahomes fits this trend next week ...
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  #92  
Old 01-07-2019, 10:17 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Underdogs 10-1 ATS last post-season

Now 3-0 ATS to start this post-season

Underdogs through the last 15 NFL playoff games (profit for $100 bets):

9-6 SU (+$1181.00)

14-1 ATS (+$1170.33)
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  #93  
Old 01-07-2019, 11:11 AM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Early Divisional Round Betting

65% on Chargers +4 at NE
59% on Cowboys +7 at LAR
56% on Eagles +7.5 at NO
52% on Colts +5 at KC
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  #94  
Old 01-07-2019, 11:48 AM
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Tom Brady is 7-7 ATS in playoff games played in freezing temperatures (32 degrees or colder)

Early forecast calls for a high of 30
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  #95  
Old 01-07-2019, 12:04 PM
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Is home field advantage and a bye helpful in the NFL Playoffs?

Not when it comes to covering the spread ...

Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round have gone 24-35-1 (41%) ATS.
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  #96  
Old 01-07-2019, 12:35 PM
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The Chargers have now officially added TE Hunter Henry to their active roster off the PUP list
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  #97  
Old 01-07-2019, 12:59 PM
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Opening lines and early action for all four games, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Vegas ...


Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

The SuperBook posted the line for this matchup at halftime of the Colts-Texans games, such was its faith that Indy was going to advance. And although the number ticked up to 6 Sunday afternoon, there’s not a lot of K.C. cash yet.

“All of our liability is on the Colts in this one,” Wilkinson said. “The public is really high on Indianapolis right now. We’ve got several low-five-figure bets on the Colts plus the points. I think we’ll see some sharp money come in on the Chiefs late.”


Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-9)

“We’ve gotten some early action on the Eagles from the public,” Wilkinson said of the last game in the divisional round, a 4:40 p.m. ET start Sunday. “I think that’s just based off their win against the Bears, and we’ll see most of the action flow in on the Saints throughout the week. The line seems high at 9, but we set it high like that to account for people playing teasers. The line may drop some throughout the week, but we like 9 at the moment.”


Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

“We briefly opened Los Angeles -6.5, but thought better of it and put it at a key number,” Wilkinson said of a very quick move to Rams -7. “The Cowboys are another team the public is going to love, but I think the sharp money takes the Rams.”


Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4.5)

“We haven’t seen any action on this game, but my guess is that the public will be all over the Patriots,” Wilkinson said of this 1:05 p.m. ET clash. “I’m anticipating this line to go up some, and then the wiseguys will bet it back down. The Patriots don’t have a great team this year, and I think this game will be close.”
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  #98  
Old 01-07-2019, 02:32 PM
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The over/under for Chiefs-Colts opened 56.5 and has been bet up to 57.

Since 2003, there have been four playoff games with over/unders of 57 or more points.

The over went 4-0 in those games going over by 6.5 points on average.
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  #99  
Old 01-07-2019, 02:43 PM
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The road team has lost 11 straight Saturday Divisional Round games.

The total has gone OVER in 13 of the last 16 Saturday Divisional Round games.
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  #100  
Old 01-07-2019, 03:00 PM
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Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round receiving a majority of spread tickets have gone 9-18-1 (33%) ATS.

Very early, but currently, all of the home teams this weekend are receiving <50% of bets at Sports Insights Contributing Books
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