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  #101  
Old 01-07-2019, 04:07 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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For the 35th time since 2003, Brady will start a home game on more than a full week of rest.

The Patriots are 31-3 (91.2%) SU and 19-13-2 (59.4%) ATS in the previous 34 games.
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  #102  
Old 01-07-2019, 04:45 PM
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BetOnline

Early bet count for Divisional Round

53% on Colts +5
63% on Cowboys +7
74% on Chargers +4
77% on Eagles +8
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  #103  
Old 01-07-2019, 05:07 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Early Sharp Action Hitting Chargers-Patriots Over/Under


Though it certainly may change, the early weather forecast is calling for snow in Foxborough on Sunday.

The total opened at 47.5, which is nearly 10 points lower than the other AFC game next week, but a good chunk higher than the Chargers game yesterday.

Early money hit the under, though, dropping it a full point at some books down to 46.5.

Though 50% of the bets are on the over, 70% of the money is on the under. Bigger bets generally equal sharper bettors, who are responsible for most line moves you’ll see.

Early Monday evening, Sports Insights’ bet signals also tracked a steam move on the under, further dropping the number down to 45 in some spots.

Why are they hitting the under hard in the early going, though? We can’t say for sure, but there is a chance they are gambling on the forecast. Literally and figuratively.

Snow forecasts six days out are not exactly accurate, but they often give folks at least an estimated guess on what will happen.

If that holds up, bettors will get some excellent closing line value, as the total would surely drop a few more points if there was significant snow expected during the game.

If it doesn’t hold up, it may go back up a bit more, but not a ton. We imagine it’ll definitely stay below 50 regardless of the forecast, but has a chance to drop well below 45 if there’s a snowstorm.
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  #104  
Old 01-07-2019, 05:15 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Add on from above post ...

Foxboro Sunday forecast for Pats / Chargers:

30 degrees / 3-5 inches of snow /10-15 mph crosswinds


Windy postseason Unders 10 MPH or more ... 63.9% since 2003
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  #105  
Old 01-07-2019, 05:44 PM
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MGM Race and Sports

PHI-NO playoff game got $350,000 Saints moneyline bet at -350, to win $100,000, and $100,000 Eagles moneyline bet at +320, to win $320,000
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  #106  
Old 01-07-2019, 07:31 PM
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Heads up on the Rams Cowboys game

Right now its expected to rain this weekend here

Likely more cowboy fans at game fwiw
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  #107  
Old 01-08-2019, 07:10 AM
darth wager darth wager is offline
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NYK, do you have stats for Patriots home record in playoffs?
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  #108  
Old 01-08-2019, 10:25 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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I'm digging around some stuff now ... Found this interesting to even things out ...

The Patriots are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games. (Avg winning margin: 15.87)

But ...

The Chargers are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 10.0)
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  #109  
Old 01-08-2019, 10:27 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The Cowboys are 0-7 SU in their last seven road playoff games.

Their last road playoff win came in San Francisco in 1993. Since 1981, they’re 2-13 SU in road playoff games.
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  #110  
Old 01-08-2019, 10:58 AM
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Melvin Gordon (knee) is expected to play Sunday against the Patriots.
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  #111  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:03 AM
BLUE LOU BOYLE BLUE LOU BOYLE is offline
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FYI: Phillip Rivers is 0-7 against Belichick’s Patriots when Tom Brady plays.

BLB
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  #112  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:09 AM
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Divisional Round Betting Market: Return of the NFL Trendy Dog


Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC

Spread: Chiefs -5

The Colts looked great against Houston and have looked great, period, over the past couple of months. They’ve done enough to convince 56% of bettors, who are responsible for 66% of dollars, to bet on them.

The Chiefs opened at -4 and reached -6 relatively quickly, but have since dropped back to -5. Kind of an inconsequential number, but we're still surprised the majority of bettors are taking Indy even though it’s not getting seven points.

Kansas City was a pretty darn good and buzzworthy team this season, but then again, bettors are all about what happened recently.

Over/under: 57

At 57, this over/under is practically 10 points higher than the Colts-Texans game last week. Money has driven it up that high as it opened at 55.5. Sixty-eight percent of bets are taking the over, and 82% of the money likes the points as well.



Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Spread: Rams -7

With 55% of bets, the Cowboys are just a tad less popular than the Colts. They are getting a full seven points, which is going to entice more casual bettors to take them.

While the Colts also had money in their favor, the Cowboys do not, getting just about 40% of the cash. Though the line has hit 6.5 on an occasion or two depending on the book, the Rams are back at their opening number of -7 at most books, and are even at -7.5 at a couple.

Over/under: 49

Trendy unders, too? This under is getting the very slight majority of bets at 51%, but the total hasn’t dropped. It’s essentially stood pat across the market at 49, and the juice at some books even suggests it may go up to 49.5.



Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS

Spread: Patriots -4

The Chargers are the trendiest dogs of them all at 63% of bets, which isn’t too surprising considering their support last week. They closed with 72% of bets at Baltimore, which was the second-trendiest playoff dog we’ve ever tracked per Bet Labs.

Though there was some initial sharp action on the Patriots, 67% of the cash on the Chargers has helped drive the line down from +5 to +4, which is where the line sits at essentially every book.

We’ve yet to see it cross over to +3.5 or the key number of +3, but it is possible if LA sees another round of sharp action.

Over/under: 45.5

Snow? Maybe. We’re still a ways out from Sunday, but the early forecast has scared folks into betting this total down from 47.5 to 45.5.



Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday at 4:40 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Spread: Saints -8

After opening between +9 and +10 at most books, the Eagles are down to +8 and even +7.5 at a couple shops.

Their support is very similar as Indy’s, as they have 56% of bets and 67% of dollars. That has helped drive the line closer down to the key number of seven, but we're not sure if it will get there. If it does, we imagine some sharp bettors will hit the Saints with some buyback.

The Saints beat Philly, 48-7, a month and a half ago, but with Nick Foles now under center, bettors are blocking that game from their memory.

Over/under: 50.5

Nearly two-thirds of bets and dollars are on the over, expecting big point totals to be scored in the warm and calm Superdome air. The over/under, however, has actually dropped a point from 51.5 to 50.5, suggesting some sharp action on the under.

Historically, playoff games in domes have gone over in 29 of 39 games dating back to 2003. That trend is off to a 1-1 start, though, with Indy’s stifling of Houston.
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  #113  
Old 01-08-2019, 12:47 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Using the Bet Labs database, teams that play in a dome or a stadium with a retractable roof have gone 8-24 (25.0%) straight up (SU) in postseason games played outside since 2003.


In comparison, non-dome teams in outdoor road playoff games have gone 50-56 (47.2%) SU over the same span.

That is a significant difference in win percentage and one that holds up if we expand our sample.

Since 1990, using data from Pro-Football-Reference, there have been 56 dome teams that played in outdoor playoff games. These teams are 12-44 (21.4%) SU and 18-36-2 (33.3%) against the spread (ATS) in these matchups.

Temperature does not seem to further impact the performance of dome teams as Simmons theorized. In games played in freezing temperatures, 32 degrees or colder, dome teams are 4-18 (18.2%) SU and 8-13-1 (38.1%) ATS, which is in line with the overall averages.

Colder weather doesn’t fully explain the poor performance of dome teams in outdoor playoff games, but there is something to it. Playing on the road and likely facing a superior team, the team with home field usually has a better record, contributing to the struggles of dome teams outside.


In the Divisional Round, a pair of dome teams will go on the road this weekend. The Indianapolis Colts are 5-point underdogs in Kansas City against the Chiefs (Jan. 12, 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC).

Following Colts-Chiefs on Saturday, the Dallas Cowboys, as 7.5-point underdogs, head to Los Angeles for a showdown with the Rams (Jan. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX).


Bettors either aren’t aware of or don’t care about the historical struggles of dome teams in outdoor playoff games. A majority of spread tickets are on both the Colts and Cowboys.
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  #114  
Old 01-08-2019, 02:54 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Dogs are hot in NFL playoffs but beware ...

Teams are just 9-38 straight up and 18-29 against the spread (38%) after pulling off an upset in the wild card round (since 1984)
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  #115  
Old 01-08-2019, 03:07 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Underdogs of 7 points or more (like Cowboys, Eagles this week) are 16-8-2 ATS since 2006 (67%) in the NFL divisional playoff round.
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  #116  
Old 01-08-2019, 08:12 PM
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  #117  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:17 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bookmaker ... Updated

Saturday

IND 57
KC -5.5

Opened KC -4/ 55.5

65% of $$ on KC ... 60% of wager count on Ind ... 57% of $$ on the Over


DAL 49.5
LAR -7

Opened LAR -6.5/ 50

81% of $$ on LAR ... 52% of wager count on LAR ... 56% of $$ on the Over
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  #118  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:20 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Right now, looks like 60% chance of snow in KC on Saturday with about one inch expected. 5-10 mph winds, temps around the freezing mark.

Doesn't seem like a big deal ... at this point.
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  #119  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:24 AM
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Bookmaker ... Updated

Sunday

LAC 45.5
NE -4

Opened NE -5 / 47.5

81% of $$ on LAC ... 68% of wager count on LAC ... 66% of $$ on the Over


PHI 50.5
NO -8

Opened NO -7.5 / 51.5

65% of $$ on NO ... 60% of wager count on NO ... 71% of the $$ on the Over
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  #120  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:58 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Currently only 38% of spread tickets are on the Patriots -4 at Sports Insights Contributing Books

Since 2003, Brady's against the spread record when getting <40% of bets

8-0-2 ATS ... covering by 9.1 points per game.
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  #121  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:46 PM
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Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram & the Chargers sacked Lamar Jackson 7 times last weekend.

Among QBs to make five or more starts in 2018, Tom Brady completed 45.3% of his passes when under pressure (ranked 33 of 43 QBs).

When not pressured, Brady completed 71.7% of passes.
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  #122  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:15 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
The Cowboys are 0-7 SU in their last seven road playoff games.

Their last road playoff win came in San Francisco in 1993. Since 1981, they’re 2-13 SU in road playoff games.

Cowboys on the road ...

Averaged 7.5 fewer points on the road

Allowed 48.1 more rushing yards per game on the road

Net yards per play rank on the road: 27th

Averaged a league-low 5.8 1st half points on the road

Dak's QB rating on the road was 23.9 points lower
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  #123  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:42 PM
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Since week 10 ... the Chiefs defense ranks 32nd in third down conversion rate against the pass (49%) ... 30th on 3rd & 5+ (40%).

On the season, they rank 32nd in rush DVOA ... 31st on 1st down ... 28th on 2nd & 32nd on 3rd/4th
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  #124  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:43 PM
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Since 2003, teams that see the line move 0.5-point or more in their direction have gone 68-51-4 (57%) ATS in the NFL Playoffs

Underdogs in this situation are 34-11-2 (76%) ATS


Colts moved from +6 to +5 at Chiefs

Eagles moved from +10 to +8 at Saints
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  #125  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:46 PM
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Playoff O/U notes ...

This year marks the highest avg ever for the div round (50.88) -Second highest was 1998 (48.62)

-OVER is 26-18 since 2007 (59%)

This was the second-highest scoring season in NFL history with 46.6 ppg. First was 2013 (46.8 ppg)
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