Posting From Moon Palace Sportsbook --- Loading up and Firing Away! MNF

[keith.line]

Week Four (Min: $300, Max: $2000):
Football:
Basketball:
Total:
--------
Week One: 6-2 +$2300
Week Two: 7-4 +$2200
Week Three: 13-5 +$6085

Overall: 26-11 (71%) +$10585
College: 12-4 (75%) +$5215
NFL: 10-4 (71%) +4950
NBA 4-3 (57%) +$420

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts -5/48 OPEN

Let me start off by saying the majority of the money in this game has been on the over. There is more money on the total then the spread tonight. With that said, I can not back the under in this spot. Even though the line has moved up its suicide to do so. An under bet tonight can be cracked in 5 minutes, and over can be made in 5 minutes. I can't bet the under, and I am not rolling with the majority of the public money espeically on a Monday Night Over.

As much as you may think the public is backing the Colts, its alot closer then you think. $109,860 has been wagered on Indianapolis, $99,410 has been wagered on Houston for a difference of a little more then $10,000. The total has a difference of $52,000+ including parlays. The betting volume is also evenly split on the spread at 52/48 in favor of the Colts. A number of teasers involve the Texans and the Over. I like the game tonight because of the line, and what is at stake. Anytime you see a line set at 5 or 5.5 its set to do so because the books simply belive it is a toss up game that can go either way and want split action. This goes all the way back to book The Hidden Game Of Football which was released in 1988. Authors Bob Caroll, Pete Palmer and John Thorn took a look at Bill James baseball theories and applied odds to them. They came up with the theory of 5 8 and 11. It showed that these spreads have an outcome on the game some rediculously low rate. This means with the numbers of 5, 8 and 11 as the spread, the team winning outright covered as well, I think it was in the 90% range. The spread makes a difference in all football games between 19-23%, this was nearly double that rate.

With that hisotry lesson in the books, I will get to my point. By no way am I taking this into full account for this play, but I am taking the fact that this is an evenly split game betting wise which leads me to belive the info that I have read and collected from the book as well is straight up when it comes to the line. This Texans defense is AWFUL. Dead last in the NFL. This game is going to establish control of the division in a very big way. Colts have the revenge factor as well as the Manning factor. The Texans game plan is to run run run and keep the Colts offense off the field. Remember the Miami Dolphins team that tried that on Monday Night a season back. They were eaten alive by Peyton in just 14 minutes of poession time. I think Indy can hang up 35 tonight, I am not sure that Houston will be able to keep up. I mean there has been nothing this year that has shown me that they can stop anything. As I have been typing I got a text messgae from my friend saying Houston broke the $101,00 mark making it nearly an even split. I don't have tons of info to put up like I usually do but this is one of those games where the right move is only on one side, the side is Indy. I think the injuries wont matter, and I think its why the line is where it is and why the betting has been evenly split. I think it poses a tremendous opportunity to back Indy in an evenly split game at home with revenge on the line and not have the odds stacked against you before the game even starts. Gotta take this opportunity.
Indy by double digits.

Indianapolis Colts -5 $1100/$1000

[keith.line]

NBA 1Q/3Q SYSTEM PLAY: San Antonio Spurs -2 1Q $110/$100

[STACKS ON DECK]

some sites lets you wager on the 3rd qt at haltime right.. do you if its 5 Dimes?

[I'mAWinner]

Hi Keith, What do you think about the injuries on the Colts.

[keith.line]

5dimes is where i play the NBA system yes.

I think the injuries wont matter, and I think its why the line is where it is and why the betting has been evenly split. I think it poses a tremendous opportunity to back Indy in an evenly split game at home with revenge on the line and not have the odds stacked against you before the game even starts. Gotta take this opportunity.

[Andre]

Excellent write up Keith!!!

[7daytheory]

gl buddy. Never betting against Manning on Monday night.

[BigBabyDean]

thanks keith! lets get em tonight! any baseball?

[CappBroker]

riding with you small....GL

[ebbearsfb1]

good info, always hard to bet against peyton anyway....

whats the nba system? i think you posted it but i can't find where

[I'mAWinner]

Thanx for the reply ! Good luck.

[sportzfreak_03]

Peyton manning factor. Can't put a price on that. I'm rolling with ya tonight keith.

[dalers2k]

Keep the train rollin Keith !

[keith.line]

NBA System is in the NBA section, just posted the play in here though.

[reggie02]

Hey Keith,

Just dropping in to say thank you for the info you provide. No matter how insignificant you think it is, it is still valuable. I hear what you are saying about the under, but it looks like a good risk to take for a little bet.

Anyways, just saying thanks from a fellow Canadian.

Reggie