Preaseason Over/Under Betting :

[Kramer]

NEVER BET A PRESEASON HOME UNDERDOG
TO GO OVER THE TOTAL :

When I started researching the chart, I was astounded by how simple and basic this rule turned out to be.

BY VICTOR KING

Since the 2001 season,NFL ‘X’ games in which the home team is
an UNDERDOG have gone a very impressive
18-44-2 O/U overall.
SO BET THE HOME TEAM UNDERDOG TO GO UNDER
NEVER play a pre-season game to go “OVER”
when the home team is an underdog!


Regardless of the OU line, these pre-season home dogs have gone
Under 71% of the time!

Breaking down the results based on the actual line reveals the
following:
Home dogs of 2 > points are 16-39-1 O/U (71% Under)…
Home dogs of 3 >
points are 10-27 O/U (73% Under)…
AND
Home dogs of > 3 points are 4-10 O/U (71%Under).

The way that we have broken down our preseason
chart is by each different individual
Over / Under line.

The nice thing is that we can lump a few different lines together to
come up with a solid ‘line range’ result. And that’s the case here. Despite the fact that
overall OU results in the last nine seasons are only 61-56 O/U, take a look at the ‘MRT” (MOST RECENT TREND)
column for these lines.

In our ‘what have you done for me LATELY’ query, we note that the
most recent trends for these OU lines have gone 19-5 O/U in the last 4 seasons.
We came up with these results after combining
the MRT column for each of the lines in
this range.

So we add up the following:
5-1-O/U for 34.5…
6-3 O/U for 35.5…
3-0 O/Ufor 35.5…
and 5-1 O/U for 36.
Add ‘em all together and you get an MRT that’s gone
79% for the Over in the last 4 seasons.
WHEN YOU PLAY OVER 34.5 TO 36 POINTS

REMEMBER, ONLY PLAY the ‘OVER’ when the
HOME TEAM IS FAVORED in this line range.

The MRT tells us not to ‘fall for the
hype’… but there IS an exception IF the OU
line is REALLY high.

First off, we’ll focus our attention on the OU line range of 42 to 44
points.

That would cover the individual OU lines of 42, 42.5, 43, 43.5, and 44 points.

The MRT tells us that these games have gone
2-7 O/U (78% Under) in the last 4 years.
We get that result by combining the most
recent trends for the 5 different OU lines
in question. So don’t get seduced by what
looks like a potential high-scoring game.
BUT… there’s always an exception to every rule!

There have only been two games in
the last nine years in which the OU line was
REALLY high (that’s 46 or more points). And
BOTH of those games went OVER the Total
(2-0 O/U).


Go ‘UNDER’ with a low
OU line… BUT go ‘OVER’ with
a REALLY low OU line!
The title of this article is “It’s all about the
Line”. Truer words were never spoken,
particularly in regards to our fi nal query.
We’ll wrap things up by taking a look at
the REALLY low OU lines.

GO UNDER WITH A LOW O/U LINE ,
BUT OVER A REALLY LOW O/U LINE

And again, this
comes from the ‘what have you done for me
LATELY’ department. Take a look at the OU
lines of 31.5 to 34 points.

As you probably already know, NFL pre-season Over / Under
lines are usually about 4-6 points less than
they would be in the regular season and
with good reason.

Starters do not play the full 60 minutes like they normally do when
the games really count.
But even in the
exhibition season, an OU line of 34 or less
points is pretty low.
Our MRT tells us that in
the above-mentioned line range, the results
have been 7-20 O/U in the last 4 years (74%
Under).

And if we remove the specifi c line
of 32.5 points from the equation, we get
an even more impressive result of 4-19 O/U
(83% Under).

Finally, when the OU line is REALLY low in a NFL ‘X” game, check out the
most recent trends.
An OU line of 30 pts, 30.5 pts, or 31 pts has resulted in a PERFECT 4-0
O/U record. Now that’s what I call ‘OVER’-
whelming!!

[BigdaddyQH]

Very nice. I saw the same write up in Lawrences playbook, but if you look at it very carefully, you would be wagering on just about every game this coming week.

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

Very nice. I saw the same write up in Lawrences playbook, but if you look at it very carefully, you would be wagering on just about every game this coming week.

i thought you were a self taught man? wouldnt have pegged you has a guy that goes on touts' pages seeking an edge