Ravens/Pats: INSIDE LOOK info on the MATCHUP

[Pic n Locs]

It may have taken a few days, but many bettors finally thought logically after last week’s playoff results had sunk in. The initial line posted on the Patriots was somewhat inflated, a number that began perhaps a point too high.
Las Vegas sports books -- some reluctantly -- opened the Patriots as 7-point favorites over the Ravens and saw an immediate reaction by bettors. The number jumped to -7 ½, which was caused by the performances from each team last weekend.

The Patriots steam rolled the Broncos 45-10, covering easily, while the Ravens appeared to struggle against the T.J. Yates led Texans and didn’t cover in their 20-14 victory.

“We went over all the ratings and came up with Patriots minus-6 initially,” said LVH Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay who was one of the first to post the line in town, “but we felt we’d test the waters a little bit with a key number and see where it drove us early on and posted it -7.“

“Our first few bets came in on the Patriots and pushed the number quickly to -7 ½, so we were somewhat justified by the starting number.”

But Kornegay’s initial thought is proving to be correct as the proper price because large Ravens money is starting to come in and has pushed almost every book back to -7 flat.

What we saw last is starting to wear off in the minds of most bettors as they go back to the basics of looking at the straight facts of each squad. What are each team’s strengths and weaknesses?

The Patriots have one of the league’s worst defenses and have blown away mediocre teams all season. Their two toughest opponents, the Giants and Steelers, both beat the Patriots and are the only teams they faced that ended up with winning records.

We just saw a team equal to the Patriots with offensive dominance and similar weaknesses on defense, the Packers, get manhandled at home by the Giants. Defense is proving to be a key cog in football once again, despite being proved wrong all season by dominant offenses rolling through the season with ease.

Tom Brady is one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, but teams that can get pressure on him fare very well and the Ravens put pressure on every quarterback they face.

The big question with your Ravens bet is how much of quarterback Joe Flacco you can stomach. In most of Baltimore’s winning occasions, Flacco has been taken out of the equation. It was only two years ago that the Ravens beat the Patriots 33-14 in a playoff game at Foxboro where Flacco only completed four passes for 34 yards. Running back Ray Rice jumped out big early on and carried the Ravens to a 24-0 lead and the game was history.

For the Ravens to have success this week, most believe Rice will have to be the driving force on offense again and you’ll have to hope you’re not relying on Flacco to make big third-down conversions. Flacco’s own teammate, Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed, even said Flacco gets rattled when pressured which isn’t the type of headline material that the supposed leader of your offense needs to be reading the week before his biggest game of the year.

Ticket counts that include mostly parlays still have the Patriots being bet at a 3-to-2 ratio. However, the straight bet wagers, those that decide when the line will be moved, currently has a slight lean towards the Ravens which means we could be seeing -6 ½ very soon and eventually -6, which was Kornegay’s initial rating.

You may ask why Kornegay didn’t post his initial thought and it’s a pretty simple answer: you have to adjust and adapt to what’s going on. No matter how strong a personal rating may be, the Bookmaker has to know his betting public, what the market will dictate and also respect the key numbers.

Had Kornegay opened the game -6, it would have been rapidly bet up to -7 ½ without getting any Ravens money. When/if the line comes down, then he’ll have the majority of his bets on the underdog at +6 ½ with most of the favorite money at -7. 90% of the action on this game will come Saturday and Sunday. If the game lands Patriots winning by 7, he won’t be stung as much as he would have been had he opened with his first inkling.

Weather doesn’t figure to play a factor in Foxboro Sunday with minimal winds and temperatures expected in the in the mid thirties, but it’s a much different story in San Francisco where we can expect rain. It’s raining right now, will be tomorrow and then some more on Sunday. Whether or not it’s an edge is yet to be seen, but Jim Harbaugh has team practicing in the conditions.

Info complement of Micah Roberts

[Pic n Locs]

JDsilk...want to point out another fact to note when considering Ravens:


Baltimore has only been an underdog once in 17 games this year. The Ravens went to Heinz Field and won at Pittsburgh by a 23-20 score as 3 ½-point underdogs on Nov. 6.

[JDSilk]

I definitely agree that the line opening at -7 showed that Vegas was not sure where the money was going, but with it quickly going to -7.5, we definitely know that money is driving the line higher and pretty sure all teases are taking Pats too...

Great Write-up

GO RAVENS!