RestEasy Championship Weekend

[resteasy]

Easily the hardest weekend to cap. Seems so easy with 2 games but the lines are tight and the teams are the best of the nfl.
Confidence not high in these but this is what I like.

Ravens @ Pats -7 O/U 50 (buy down to 6.5)

Joe Flacco is not a bad QB. Let's get that out of the way. But he's no Tom Brady.
Th Raven offense is as good as what it's defense allows the other team. What?
The Ravens D is obviously very good but on the road they have been suspect this year. They keep opposing teams to 16.5 pts/game. So, their offense needs an average of 17pts/game. Oversimplified I know.
The pats score. Even against the ravens D they will score. The pats D does let up points. Their pass D is bad, though they have taken the ball away. Pats have 23 int's in the regular season against the ravens 15.
IF the pats get up will flacco play error free? My money is not on that.

Ray Rice. Run Ray Rice. Simple right? Cam Cameron is an odd duck. He leans to the pass and doesn't call the run as often as you'd think one should. Heck, last week run the ball and force houston to use it's TO's but no, run and 2 passes.

I like the pats to outscore the ravens, especially in the 2nd half.
I'll take the over in a 35-24 game.


Giants @ SF -2.5 O/U 41.5 (by the half to +3 if you still see 2.5)

The rain has come and soaked the field. During the game there is a chance it will rain some more but it's unclear if it'll be a downpour or a sprinkle. Sounds like it'll be scattered. What effect does this have?
The WR's will have the advantage. They know where they are going as does the qb.

I don't believe the Giants will call more runs because of this as they already call a good mixture of run and pass. In fact this post season they call run 47% of the time. The run game even with a dry field would be stifled by the SF D.

Both defenses will benefit from the rain in the turnover department. The ball will be wet, footing will be treacherous and if the ball holder tries too many cute moves they could lose their feet. Both will be ripping at the ball and this benefits the 9'ers.

Kicking could be trouble. Niners have a top scorer in Akers and the middle of that field will be a mud pit.

Home field advantage? It's an advantage for Frisco certainly as playing on the road would be a disadvantage but for the Giants I am a firm believer they play better on the road. Eli, 1 home playoff win 4 road wins (not including the '07 superbowl).

Call me a homer that's fine. The Giants better offense in the passing game, better QB better WR's and the good play of their defense propels them to a win.

That's not to say Alex Smith is bad because he has proven he belongs but Eli is just playing insane all season. Outside turnovers the giants will look to take away Vernon Davis and Gore.

over under? Not entirely sure though I'm leaning over. The under is extremely popular and I do believe they'll both move the ball.



Enjoy the games folks!