RestEasy Superbowl pick

resteasy · #1 02-02-2012, 10:32 AM

I'm a Giants fan. Have been since I was a child. So, people won't be surprised in me picking the Giants +3.

However, as a Giants fan I do believe at times I can be more skeptical and critical of my team when I am uncertain of their ability. I tend to shy away from betting them in most cases and will go with either other games or a total.

But again, I'm betting the Giants +3.
Why? Homerism? My money has no loyalty but to my pocket. Blinded by favoritism? I try to be objective else I'll move to the total or elsewhere.

The Giants seem like favorites around here and in the books though not being favored. Too small a sample size for this site and the books are incomplete.
Pickem at espn has 61% on the pats SU. Thespread has 61% on giants +3. Big money is still coming in and with 2 weeks to bet and 4 days to the big game we haven't seen the real big money just yet. Popularity is still incomplete and honestly, means nothing.

Offensively the Giants have more explosive ability with better wide receivers than the pats. The Patriots posses the best tight end in the league this year and though hobbled would be a mistake to believe he's not a huge factor.
The trick is the defense of the Giants is much more in balance against the offense of the Pats whereas the scale is tilted much into the Giant's favor with the porous pass D of the patriots.

'But Bellichik will have 2 weeks to fix that.' He had all season to fix it. He had two weeks and then lost to the steelers. Coughlin has 2 weeks to improve his D which already this season proved to be too much for the pats holding Tom Brady to zero points the 1st half. Those 2 weeks may make it more of a struggle but the team won't turn it around enough.

The giants played the hardest defense in the league. What happened? 316yds, 2TD's 0 ints. Brady played a tough defense and what happened? 239yds 0tds 2 ints.

The Patriots offense is so good though. Right? Yes, they are good but the week before the giants faced a team that was as good and arguably better. What happened? They stifled that offense to a shadow of what it was. Both wins in the backyards of those teams and even the win against the pats regular season was in new england.

The Giants look to be playing great football and the pats are getting by. The Patriot's defense did gain some momentum last week with a great strip in the endzone of Lee Evans and Wilfork having his best game of the season. But that is not the norm whereas the Giants stripping the ball from Williams and then recovering sounds like something their defense is continually capable of.

Minimize turnovers. Brady doesn't throw as many picks as Eli. In fact, the patriot's silver lining on D is that they have 3 more INT's on the season than do the Giant's D.
Pressure. Get in Brady's face and he becomes human.
Play to strengths. Bradshaw and Nicks did Not play the regular season game. The run game is different with Bradshaw and the offense much more dynamic with both.

IF the Giants play the way they have the last couple weeks and do not let the hype go to their heads then I do not see how the Patriots can stop them.

Giants +3
Giants ML
total... so tough but leaning under 54.5

Good luck to you in your choices. Have a safe and enjoyable Super Bowl.

I may list a few props I like as well a little later.

The Frozen Pond · #2 02-02-2012, 12:11 PM

LordCC · #3 02-02-2012, 03:01 PM

Good luck Rest Easy!

Joe D · #4 02-02-2012, 08:24 PM

Love the pick!
Best of Luck!

twentyonekid · #5 02-02-2012, 08:36 PM

good luck,im with you on giants and the under

jacob · #6 02-02-2012, 10:28 PM

How many points did the Giants score against the Pats porous pass defense in that same first half of week nine? Pardon? How many? That's what I thought. Thanks.

Steel · #7 02-02-2012, 11:00 PM

Win or lose enjoy the game.

Good Luck to you

resteasy · #8 02-03-2012, 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacob

How many points did the Giants score against the Pats porous pass defense in that same first half of week nine? Pardon? How many? That's what I thought. Thanks.

And they were without nicks and bradshaw. The team's top runner and top WR.
Who were the patriots without? What was that? You say no one? and Who won the game? Oh yeah that's right.

See, I can post like that too.

But really, I guess I didn't get across the point I was trying to make which is that people tend to have this false belief that a possession by the patriots equals automatic points; that their offense is unstoppable. The regular season game is proof positive that is false and that the giants are a team that can seriously challenge the patriot's offense.

Boris Karloff · #9 02-03-2012, 10:02 AM

Like the write-up.

Also, as good as "Revenge Games" sounds good for the "Revenger", they don't come through that easy.

GL.

resteasy · #10 02-03-2012, 01:25 PM

Here's a couple Props I like. Will likely add more.

Eli Manning OVER 2 td Even odds (this has great chance to hit or push)

Nicks TD +105
Cruz TD +135 (these 2 may not both hit but at least one should hit for minor profit if 1 hits)

1st Challenge play overturned Even (coughlin pretty good at challenges, bellichik I don't know his record. Will depend on the refs possibly. Like it for fun but not a must play)

NYG Defense 1st pass INT +115 (just going with the better pass D here)

Victor Cruz's longest reception OVER 28.5 yds. -110 (He does make big plays. Giants were better on 3rd and long last couple games than 3rd and short. If that holds then this has a better chance of hitting)

Brandon Jacobs Over 1 pass reception +110 (If he gets even 1 it's a push or better. I see value in that. He's had 1 or more in the 3 of the last 5 games)

NYG longest TD score in the game Even (they have the more explosive WR's so that makes me think even odds are good value)

First to 10 pts Giants Even (probably the weakest one)

I'll be looking into some more.