RestEasy's NFL Week 8 At a Glance Discussion

[resteasy]

Week 7 is over let's look at week 8. These are my initial thoughts and leans this is completely open to discussion. Lets get some good feedback.

The numbers are from sportsbook.com on this tuesday morning (pacific time)

Morning Games

Colts @ Titans -9.5 O/U 43.5
Colts and titans both coming off big losses. Colts moreso than the titans of course. Is the Colt's confidence destroyed? Are the Titans going to do to them what New Orleans did? Maybe and no. The colts are on their 3rd road game with this game. I feel Titans win but the colts cover. Though would feel better to see this at 10.

Jaguars @ Texans -9.5 O/U 41.5
Jags put up a fight against ravens eh? So, they should cover right? It was like watching two blind chicks try to slap each other. Jags barely landed enough hits to win the decision. Houston on the other hand was firing on all cylinders. Can the jags make foster look as bad as they did Rice last night? Did the jags do that? Even if they do, schaub isn't flacco. Texans score a lot again and jags get about 10. 37-10

Vikings @ Panthers -3 O/U 47.5
This looks like it'll be a great game. Ponder played about up to expectations this weekend keeping it real close against the packers. Who else can do that? Oh yeah, Cam Newton did in week 2. GB has one of the worst pass d's in the league by yds/game. Really, they do and it'll bolster some QB's. The deciding factor here? Defense. I like the points.

Cardinals @ Baltimore -13 O/U 44
This is a larger line than I would have expected. Beanie wells is out this game and the ravens are home again after an embarassing monday night display. What cures a bad night's hangover better than a 1-5 cardinals team? Take it.


Dolphins @ Giants -10 O/U 43
Bye weeks haven't been to helpful this year but playing the dolphins has. Giants. My only concern will be if the Giants do that annoying thing of playing down to the competition. That's why I also like the under.

Afternoon Games

Redskins @ Bills -6 O/U 46
Bills coming off a bye and a loss at home. They are rested and at home (actually this is in Toronto). Redskins lost hightower for the season and Moss for 5-7 weeks. Couple that with questions at the QB spot and you have the bills rolling back. The total is a hard one here. I want to say the over because of the weak D of the bills but can't justify it against the skins and their semi strong D.

Patriots -3 @ Steelers O/U 51
Patroits are one of the very few road favorites this week and i agree. I even see some places with even money on them at -3. Take that. Remember last year when they played? Sure the pats have a weak D but man oh man can they score.

Browns @ 49ers -9.5 O/U 38.5
Mike Tirico said it best "A pillow fight win against seattle". Love it. 9'ers are playing great football. Alex Smith at home is the alex smith that keeps getting the starting QB jobs each season. Browns have seemingly no offense and the 9ers have a good d. pts are somewhat high still but I do think they'll cover. 2 weeks of under plays this line looks a little low. Wonder if the books are trying to trip us up?

Bengals -3 @ Seahawks O/U 38
Seahawks play well at home. Whitehurst I think is better than what he showed at the Browns. Marshawn lynch not playing was absolutely key to their defeat. If the spread was higher say 6+ maybe but the bengals have a good defense and can manage well on offense. At -3 I take cincy in a low scoring game.

Sunday Night

Cowboys @ Eagles -3.5 O/U 51
Again, the overhyped eagles are favored. I'll chalk this up to the bye week and home field. One of the worst run D's in the league by the eagles will get torn up by the cowboys. Pass D will be all over Bryant (Nandi) and Austin will also draw coverage. Sausenbacher (spelling?) should do ok but it will be witten and the running game that really move the ball. Dallas has the best run D in the league so eagles won't do much there. Then again Andy Reid doesn't like to run much (was that a jab? no just worked out that way). 1/2 over a FG is a great spot. Dallas moneyline in a game I wish they both could lose.
Oh and Philly 0-2 @home ATS dallas 2-0 away ATS.

Monday Night

Chargers -3.5 @ Chiefs O/U 44
This is actually a good game. Wow! 2 good night games after this weekend I like. This may also be the most difficult game to figure. I said I wouldn't back the chiefs until they proved something. They did pretty good. Yeah it was against a team with QB issues and McFadden didn't really play at all but they blanked them. Their D played well and they offense did good. The chargers on the other hand let the Jets win. They had the game but lost it. They usually start off the season bad but this year have done well so far... against whom? KC played them close then KC was horrendous IN SD. In KC I like the chiefs at 1/2 over a FG. Take the points.

Game with no Line yet.

Saints @ Rams @1pm EST
Will Bradford play? That's the question. Even ifhe does I see this as a -14.5 line. After what the saints did to indy and what the rams didn't do to the cowboys it wouldn;t be surprising nor would it be to see the saints cover even that large spread. But let's wait on it.

Detroit @ Denver @4pm EST
IF Matt Stafford plays this is a line of I'll guess -6 or -5.5. Detroit should win and bring tebow back to earth and give them a shot of confidence they need to move on from two big losses. They are still a very good team that has been told over the years they're no good. They'll bounce back but need stafford to do that.

Teams on Bye
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets, Tampa Bay

Ok, so that's my current thought on the games. Agree disagree let's all discuss.

[aztriman]

I agree with virtually everything you wrote here buddy. With the major exception of the Bengals. Seattle is a tough place to play, and with Lynch Seattle wins. Seattle beat the Giants on the road and Atlanta at home, so as much as I think they suck, I guess they don't. Bengals D has been good, but it's not like they've faced a real offense yet (nor will they this week I guess). Home field is worth something in this one though, especially against a rookie QB in a tight game. I like Seattle here, especially with Lynch.

Also, on the Chargers/Chiefs. How does the Chiefs offense only score 14 points with 4 INTs that the offense got to play (the other 2 were pick-6s). Lean Chargers on that one.

Detroit is going to pummel the Broncos with or without Stafford, especially if Dumeril is out.

[resteasy]

Saints -13 @ Rams O/U 47.5
Bradford is still questionable but he's also still in the walking boot. This looks like a definite loss and I can't see any reason to put him on the field this weekend. Saints just routed an 0-6 (now 0-7) team at home. This one should also be ugly but I don't believe it'll be a 62 to 7 pt affair. Should cover the 13 easily enough. Rams have scored a maximum of 16pts this season. Saints average give or take 30 (not counting the sunday night game). Should go under as I think the saints play conservatively and respectfully. Sproles and thomas should have good days rushing after a nice 21pt lead in the first half. My guess... saints 35-7


Still waiting on denver/detroit. Stafford is day to day and is expected to play but not announced to play. So, books will likely wait though I hear some have given a line of 3. I'd take that in detroit's favor. Denver plays better at home but without lloyd and with tebow I don't think they can win. They barely barely beat miami detroit gets some of it's confidence back in denver.

on a side note, anyone else think it's funny (or ironic) that tebow went to the nfl city that is closest to god? Mile high.

[LadyDawn]

Titans vs Colts i'm rer uuning a game involving two teams both after blow out losses it was broncos home favored to falcons who just smacked in the mouth worse than denver did
FALCONS won

if any thing here i take the dog but cover after being sub sunk to to - 41 ATS is going to take a lot of energy

like Tampa bay did to saints after getting BBQ's at 49ers 48-3 came home caught saints on their 3rd road game and the squares took a bloodbath jumping in on a soft spread of saints - 3 1/2

OF course Tamps bounced down again after that huge comeback and got smoked in London

so if either team climbs above the 0 line this week fade em next week Tiatsn are at - 37 ATS COLTS are - 41 ats
OMG i just thought of something funny no matter what spread is even number it will push 9 10 11 12 !

i also thinking about this year Eagles lost to DIV rival gianst by 13 points in came non div 49ers and eagles were favored larger by 8 1/2 ???? I jumped on 49ers

of course this B 2 B div games for Titans BUT this old Matt H at QB and it ain't Jeff fischer running the team it's stone Rookie HC who was only a D cooridinator at SD !


GUN to MY Head i'll take titans at least they are healthier !

[parlay-vous]

lots of great stuff

#1 for me - ne/pit over 51 what's that 27-24. could be that at the half. teams can score a lot of points

bengals tough call, 2 scrappy teams, bengals may have a little more offense - like it under 38

sometimes a rook gets really pumped for his first game as QB, so I'm pondering if the Vikings QB can get as jacked. Cam may want to one up him especially at home. I think if the game was in minny it would be the other way around. who knows

like the 'boys +3.5, they're playin tough. might be a better all round team than philly. turnovers going to be the difference which makes me think of tony. have to keep my fingers crossed.

colts i'm sorry to say are a misery. houston should be good for the cover. they're going to play safe so with you on the under.

jags are a tough team with not a lot of talent. houston has talent but can they get as up as last week.

on the surface if the 9ers can clobber the bucs, what's that going to mean against the browns - 99-4. i think the 9ers are still hungry, but didnt the browns beat the saints last year around this time in New Orleans

the cards are just the type of team to mail it in and flacco and co. may really be pissed at last week

heads giants win - tails the dolphins lose. with tuck returning i think you got it perfect giants an under

buffalo over 46. every game buffalo has been over 46 except in cincy where the total was 43, and i know washington, they aint no cincy. i like buf as the dog but not sure as a 6 pt fav

is kc on a mission, is sd pissed. last week was more no oakland than king kong kc, they got lucky against oak. look for the raiders in the revenge match, imho. sd is a superior team but kc is a tough place to be laying points. 4 would be on kc but 3.5 might be good enough. td to fg. surprising this game is for first place and i dont see kc as being there more than sd

good luck resteasy

[LordCC]

Best of luck this week Rest Easy!

[Hoosier Action]

Originally Posted by resteasy

Week 7 is over let's look at week 8. These are my initial thoughts and leans this is completely open to discussion. Lets get some good feedback.

The numbers are from sportsbook.com on this tuesday morning (pacific time)

Morning Games

Colts @ Titans -9.5 O/U 43.5
Colts and titans both coming off big losses. Colts moreso than the titans of course. Is the Colt's confidence destroyed? Are the Titans going to do to them what New Orleans did? Maybe and no. The colts are on their 3rd road game with this game. I feel Titans win but the colts cover. Though would feel better to see this at 10.

Jaguars @ Texans -9.5 O/U 41.5
Jags put up a fight against ravens eh? So, they should cover right? It was like watching two blind chicks try to slap each other. Jags barely landed enough hits to win the decision. Houston on the other hand was firing on all cylinders. Can the jags make foster look as bad as they did Rice last night? Did the jags do that? Even if they do, schaub isn't flacco. Texans score a lot again and jags get about 10. 37-10

Vikings @ Panthers -3 O/U 47.5
This looks like it'll be a great game. Ponder played about up to expectations this weekend keeping it real close against the packers. Who else can do that? Oh yeah, Cam Newton did in week 2. GB has one of the worst pass d's in the league by yds/game. Really, they do and it'll bolster some QB's. The deciding factor here? Defense. I like the points.

Cardinals @ Baltimore -13 O/U 44
This is a larger line than I would have expected. Beanie wells is out this game and the ravens are home again after an embarassing monday night display. What cures a bad night's hangover better than a 1-5 cardinals team? Take it.


Dolphins @ Giants -10 O/U 43
Bye weeks haven't been to helpful this year but playing the dolphins has. Giants. My only concern will be if the Giants do that annoying thing of playing down to the competition. That's why I also like the under.

Afternoon Games

Redskins @ Bills -6 O/U 46
Bills coming off a bye and a loss at home. They are rested and at home (actually this is in Toronto). Redskins lost hightower for the season and Moss for 5-7 weeks. Couple that with questions at the QB spot and you have the bills rolling back. The total is a hard one here. I want to say the over because of the weak D of the bills but can't justify it against the skins and their semi strong D.

Patriots -3 @ Steelers O/U 51
Patroits are one of the very few road favorites this week and i agree. I even see some places with even money on them at -3. Take that. Remember last year when they played? Sure the pats have a weak D but man oh man can they score.

Browns @ 49ers -9.5 O/U 38.5
Mike Tirico said it best "A pillow fight win against seattle". Love it. 9'ers are playing great football. Alex Smith at home is the alex smith that keeps getting the starting QB jobs each season. Browns have seemingly no offense and the 9ers have a good d. pts are somewhat high still but I do think they'll cover. 2 weeks of under plays this line looks a little low. Wonder if the books are trying to trip us up?

Bengals -3 @ Seahawks O/U 38
Seahawks play well at home. Whitehurst I think is better than what he showed at the Browns. Marshawn lynch not playing was absolutely key to their defeat. If the spread was higher say 6+ maybe but the bengals have a good defense and can manage well on offense. At -3 I take cincy in a low scoring game.

Sunday Night

Cowboys @ Eagles -3.5 O/U 51
Again, the overhyped eagles are favored. I'll chalk this up to the bye week and home field. One of the worst run D's in the league by the eagles will get torn up by the cowboys. Pass D will be all over Bryant (Nandi) and Austin will also draw coverage. Sausenbacher (spelling?) should do ok but it will be witten and the running game that really move the ball. Dallas has the best run D in the league so eagles won't do much there. Then again Andy Reid doesn't like to run much (was that a jab? no just worked out that way). 1/2 over a FG is a great spot. Dallas moneyline in a game I wish they both could lose.
Oh and Philly 0-2 @home ATS dallas 2-0 away ATS.

Monday Night

Chargers -3.5 @ Chiefs O/U 44
This is actually a good game. Wow! 2 good night games after this weekend I like. This may also be the most difficult game to figure. I said I wouldn't back the chiefs until they proved something. They did pretty good. Yeah it was against a team with QB issues and McFadden didn't really play at all but they blanked them. Their D played well and they offense did good. The chargers on the other hand let the Jets win. They had the game but lost it. They usually start off the season bad but this year have done well so far... against whom? KC played them close then KC was horrendous IN SD. In KC I like the chiefs at 1/2 over a FG. Take the points.

Game with no Line yet.

Saints @ Rams @1pm EST
Will Bradford play? That's the question. Even ifhe does I see this as a -14.5 line. After what the saints did to indy and what the rams didn't do to the cowboys it wouldn;t be surprising nor would it be to see the saints cover even that large spread. But let's wait on it.

Detroit @ Denver @4pm EST
IF Matt Stafford plays this is a line of I'll guess -6 or -5.5. Detroit should win and bring tebow back to earth and give them a shot of confidence they need to move on from two big losses. They are still a very good team that has been told over the years they're no good. They'll bounce back but need stafford to do that.

Teams on Bye
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets, Tampa Bay

Ok, so that's my current thought on the games. Agree disagree let's all discuss.

Thanks for the infor and thoughts Resteasy, also everyone else for info and thoought.

Tenn @ Colt's: They keep dropping like flies. Tenn Realistically still have a shot, slim but a shot. The Colt's offense is what it is! It's bad! I can't help but think how bad Tenn offense looked to. This is the Colt's 3rd straight on the road. I think they will struggle to cover but personally staying away from this one.

Jackson @ Houston: I was impressed with both teams D last week. Key game for Houston to get 2 games over 500. I'd take Houston if I had to play it, although I don't like giving two scores, but they just may catch Jacksonville in a good spot.

Minny @ Carolina: Minny already bet in my thread


Zona @ Balt: I know were supposed to forget last week and worry about this week, but that offense was pathetic! Baltimore probably the play if I play the game. They are perfect 3-0 at home and 3-0 ats at home. They are 15-7 ats last 22 games against a team with a losing record.

Miami @ Giants: Already bet the Giants in my thread.

Saints @ Rams: I can't play the Rams. Saints or nothing. Nothing for me.

Wash vs Buff: Already played Buff in my thread.

Detroit @ Denver: Is Detroit back down to earth? Will they get Tebowed I think I'll just stay away from this one.

Pats @ Pitt: Already bet Pitt in my thread

Clevel @ 49er's: Already bet Frisco

Cincy @ Seattle: I really can't get a lean on this game one way or another. Cincy sure has been hot ats, 8-1 in their last 9. Young QB is catching on and the D playing well. But at Seattle strange things seem to happen. NO play for me.

Dallas @ Philly: On Philly in this Sunday nighter at home.

Monday: Looking for points as I played over 44