RestEasy's Week 11 looks and picks

[resteasy]

For now just looking. We can get a dialogue going. Maybe it'll help.
Except I like the Jets and Under.


Thursday Night Game
NY Jets -4.5 @ Denver O/U 41
Tebow complete 2 of 8 passes. Sanchez completed 20 of 39. Tebow won his game and sanchez lost. Go figure. Difference was their competition. Patriots outweigh the chiefs in terms of competition and as if there were any doubts that will be settled on Monday night.
Broncos are 0-4 ATS at home this year. They lost Moreno for the season and McGahee is hurt and status uncertain. Both teams have about the same run defense by yards though jets have let up 9 rushing TDs to denver’s 5.
Tebow will run. He will be forced to pass and revis should have a big night guarding the only real threat in Decker. The line will be tuned to Tebow and the Jets should come out with a win so long as Sanchez can play game manager. Don’t need him to out gun anyone.
Lots of ground and pound and thus low score.

Sunday Morning Games
Buffalo @ Miami -2.5 O/U 43.5
Miami favored even before the news of Bills Center Woods going on IR. Why not they’re on the upswing and bills are on a downward spiral. Bills have a better total offense by the numbers and Miami a better D. Both have let up 14 passing TDs but buffalo has let 11 rushing to miami’s 3.
This divisional matchup is not as plain as it looks it will be a must win for buffalo to keep pace with the jets who hold the tie breaker for now. By shear need if the bills can get anything going with Fred Jackson and if Stevie Johnson can go they can win this.
Miami’s last 2 wins against KC and Washington isn’t as impressive as the total domination by jets and dallas. Lean buffalo (only just barely)
Bills 3-1 ATS as underdog.
Miami 1-3 ATS at home.

Cincinatti @ Baltimore -7 O/U 40.5
Who are the Baltimore ravens? I just don’t know.
In their last 4 games they are 0-3-1 ATS. But the last 3 at home they are 2-1 ATS
Bengals however are 7-2 ATS and 5-0 ATS away.
Both teams have a stout run D letting up 90 or less yds/game. So if those cancel out who do you take Joe Flacco or Andy Dalton? Yes, bengals lost their corner and recently their safety. That is very very bad and so I take the pts here. Buy the ½ and take the bengals.

Jacksonville -1 @ Cleveland O/U 35.5
Really? Oh k. Both actually have good defenses. Both have really bad offenses. Which is best of the worst? Cleveland has missed 3 fgs at home in the last 2 home games with 2 blocked and one just a horrible snap inside the 20.
Lean Jags as they actually have a running back and browns are 0-4 ATS at home.

Oakland -1.5 @ Minnesota O/U 45
After 3 division games Oakland gets the down and out vikes. Monday night’s game showed that Minnesota needs more time to develop.
Has Carson and gang figured it out in Oakland or was the san diego game a passing moment of clarity? After what starks was able to do Bush (and not sure if mcfadden is back) should literally run away with this. I like the line almost too much.

Carolina @ Detroit -7 O/U 47
Both of these teams were huge let downs last weekend. Cam was held without a TD and Matt Staff played with a broken finger in a route by the bears. Detroit now splits the series with the bears and will need to win these types of games to keep pace.
Carolina has yet to win on the road.
7 is a lot of points and there is no indication which team will show up for either side. If there had to be a lean it would be with the points and the lions recent distress.

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay -14.5 O/U 49.5
If you had seen Monday night you’d know this doesn’t need a line. Green Bay. Done. (always good to buy the 1/2)

Dallas -7.5 @ Washington O/U 41.5
Dallas had a dominating win against Buffalo, did well against seattle, was dominated by philly, dominated the rams and was edged out by the pats. The trend? All wins at home.
However, Murray is emerging as a very good RB though hasn’t played a great defense except maybe philly where he went 74yds. He should do well in Washington. Miles Austin still out but Larent Robinson filling in nicely as well.
How about Washington? They’ve lost people too but no one seems to be filling in. The coach claims he’s behind one player then plays another. The team is so far behind in the race they’re out and confidence will be an issue but should be helped being at home for only the 5th time this season.
Dallas should beat them but they haven’t played well on the road recently and Washington has played it closer at home. San Fran beat them by 8, philly by 7 and the other 2 home games way back in weeks 1&2 they won. These division games are generally played tough.
Buy it down if taking dallas. At this moment I lean redskins with the points. I can see this actually moving to 8 or higher by Sunday.

Afternoon Games
Tennessee @ Atlanta -6 O/U 44
Atlanta is hurting from that missed 4th down. They’ll need to win in new Orleans to negate that and until then they’ll just need to get better and get some wins. Should start here with a titans team that surprised a lot of folks last week in their domination of the Carolina panthers. But these aren’t panthers, they’re falcons (lame I know).
Matt Ryan’s home win record is impressive but always had a soft spot for new Orleans with last Sunday being the 3rd in a row saints have won in Ryan’s house. Other teams don’t fare so well. Will be important to see if Julio is ok but really they should bounce back hard.

Arizonia @ San Fran -9.5 O/U 41.5
That is a lot of points. Ask the eagles.
49’ers finally get to just their 2nd division game in the horrid NFC West. Arizonia went in and beat philly when they weren’t expecting it. Don’t see that happening here. Ok. What about those points?
I am thinking a beat down.

Seattle @ St Louis -2 O/U 37.5
The Rams were giftwrapped a win by the Brown’s long snapper.
Seattle took down the Ravens a team people are looking as superbowl contenders.
So seahawks should win easily? Hold on.
Last time the rams were home they beat the saints. They will play better at home. Seattle historically plays worse on the road but this year have been hit or miss. They will be going against the 32nd run defense however they may be minus 2 important receivers. That beating of Baltimore may have beat them up a bit too much. Think they make it interesting (or rams do by not playing well) but rams win by 3.

San Diego @ Chicago -3.5 O/U 45
Can San Diego lose 5 in a row? Yes. Chicago is playing very well going into the 2nd half of the season. Chargers should be focused and angry but may also be mentally beat down. The playoffs are still there for them to take but like their WR I think they ‘lose it in the lights’.
Like this buy the 1/2.

Sunday Night Game
Philly @ NY Giants
Again no spread but Vick is hurt. If vick plays he won’t be in long against this Giants team. They have a knack for hurting QB’s. For the GMEN to stay ahead of dallas they need a win.
Will wait on points but like gmen to win.

Monday Night Game
KC @ New England -14.5 O/U 48
Wow. This looked bad a week ago looks even worse now. Does Cassel’s backup provide the spark they need? Not looking likely. Hard to bet against the pats in this one no matter the line. Still always good to buy that 1/2.


Picks so far
Jets -4.5
jets/broncos Under 41

Good luck all. and please post your thoughts.

[aztriman]

If the Broncos get behind against the Jets this could be a blowout. Tebow won't be able to throw the ball to come back against this secondary, and if the Jets get up by 2 scores this could be a 20 point win for the Jets. Love the Jets this week - easiest game this week.

Cincinatti has beaten nobody this year. They are quite possibly the most overrated team in the league. They are 6-3, but they'll finish no better than 9-7 this year. They come back to reality versus a very good defense this week. Take Balt and give the points

I like Jax on the back of MJD. Cleveland has a blind-guy playing kicker and a 3rd string QB. With their weakened secondary even Gabbert might be able to complete some passes.

San Fran has a good defense and can run the ball. But, are they good enough to give 9.5 points? I don't think so, even against a banged up AZ team. I see SF winning by 3 or 4 points.

Good luck this week, you made some great points.

[mrhotpicks2]

i think the over thursday is pretty solid ..... redskins are a gift ..... and new england might beat kc by 40 lol

[resteasy]

Good point on the san fran arizonia game. If I play that I think I may flop and go with the points on arizonia.

I for some reason still believe in the bengals. They haven't beaten anyone great (buffalo when the bills were hot) but they seem consistent. The ravens in the past 4 weeks lost to seattle and jacksonville, beat the steelers in a great comeback drive and then came back and just beat the cards. Both victories only by 3 pts.
If those teams can win or keep it close then I think the bengals can stay within 7.
Probably end up a no play but we'll see.

Jets line is now -6! getting some heat there.

O/U is now 40.5 so certainly plays on the under. hotpicks thinks it'll go over and I can see that happening. I can see at least 1 score by the jets defense and then a couple more to seal it with a garbage time td in there for denver.
But I still like the under though I hate going against hotpicks cause I hate losing.
I see the jets going with ground and pound and killing clock. short week now, big rest with large game against buffalo on the horizon which they need just get the W.

You like the Jets at -6?

I agree about the redskins that's why i lean that way. Their games are always played tough.

KC doesn't stand a chance.

TB/GB line moved down to 14.

[aztriman]

Good points on Balt, but keep in mind Seattle and Jax were on the road. The stinker against AZ was at home, but since AZ won at Philly, maybe AZ is better than given credit for. Hard to say since AZ almost beat the Giants, but then lost to Washington. Jets are going to win this game by a mile. Look who Teabag, I mean Tebow beat...Miami, Oakland (with no RDMC and new QB) and KC who has put up some really bad performances. Look at Denver's performance against Detroit, and I think that's what we'll see this week.

Denver can run the ball if it's close, but if they get behind, and I think they will, this game gets really ugly.

[BOBBYW]

gl..

[resteasy]

Thanks

already have jets locked at -4.5 and under 41

adding to that my picks for this week. Remember I don't wager on all of them some I do parlay, some I tease and some I just end up staying away from. These are the ones I like the most the ones I chose from.

Washington +7.5
nice, may want to look into Washington +7.5
that was the line last I check at least. I've heard people say +9 and +7 so....
When was washington last good?
Dallas has been at it's worst this and last year.
since 2001 dallas has won by 7 or more pts 4 out of 21 times.
They tend to play close and that means I'll take the points.

Washington +7.5
arizonia +9.5
st louis -2 I think seattle will be a bit worn down from that baltimore game.
oakland -1.5
jacksonville -1
cincinatti +7
atlanta -6 (this one a little scary. So long as they show up they get this)
cincy/balt over 40.5
carolina/detroit over 47

good luck

[parlay-vous]

SF is 10-0 ATS, perfect spot for 10-1

[aztriman]

Like Jacksonville too. St. Louis' offense looking better, and so is the front 7. I believe they have had 8 or 9 secondary players lost to injury this year though. The big question is who will throw the ball better, and I think I side with STL and Bradford now that he has a big time receiver to throw to - B. Lloyd.

[resteasy]

5-4-2 this week. Not bad, not great but not bad.
Rams what the hell? jacksonville got boned by the refs. There was no pass interference because the ball was tipped but they still gave cleveland a new set of downs on the 1. bs.
Detroit put up 49 pts! easy over.
and ravens/bengals did what I thought and put up pts.

Tonight.... not sure yet. That's a lot of points for NE to cover. Then again didn't we just see an insane blowout on monday night last week? why not again?