RestEasy's Week 9 NFL Early Looks and Picks

[resteasy]

So, I'll start off with which way I am leaning and later in the week will lock in some picks. Here's my initial reactions to the games.
Do like to hear thoughts for against etc. Lets make this a nice discussion.


Morning Games

Atl Falcons -7 @ Indy Colts O/U 44.5
Falcons coming off a bye and quietly having won 3 of their past 4 with a home loss against green bay. Indy has been playing terrible but have been on the road the past 3 weeks in a row and 4 of the last 5. Last home game against KC losing by 4. I think they play better at home feed off the crowd a bit more and actually keep this under 7.


TB Bucs @ NO Saints -8.5 O/U 50.5
Difficult one. Saints have been having trouble with division opponents the past few years. They lost in TB a few weeks ago and now have a shot to even the score. The bucs have a chance to take a lead in the division. Competitive game means this will not be won by 9 pts. TB has won the last 3 of 4 @ NO.


Cle Browns @ Hous Texans -11 O/U 41
The Browns have looked terrible the past couple weeks. This is a high spread which makes me pause but the Texans are looking good and seemingly getting better each week. Andre Johnson may not play again this week but for this game they don't need him. Foster should do fine.

NY Jets @ Buf Bills -1.5 O/U 44
The Bills have been playing great at home. The Jets have yet to win a road game. Jets get a little breathing room with the pats loss and coming off bye that gives Rex an extra week to prepare. Revis will stuff stevie johnson but fred jackson will cannonball down the field against the 25th run d. Bills are looking good. At 1.5 this is basically a pickem and I pick the bills.


Mia Dolphins @ KC Chiefs -4 O/U 39.5
Will the dolphins get a win? Maybe next week against the skins but not now. You have to wonder why -4 and not 6 or 7. Dolphins played well for almost half the game last week before choking. KC had a loss until Rivers went spastic which could only be an act of god. Maybe tebow had money on the chiefs? So that could be the reason. Whatever it is take it. KC at home are a better football team and should win by 4 easily.


SF 49ers -3.5 @ Wash Redskins O/U 37.5
Seems some people believe the redskins bounce back from their shutout to upset the 9ers. I can see that but I don't believe it. Would like this better at an even 3 but this will do. 49ers are a better team all around. They have the defense and the offense while redskins only have a defense and low confidence. 49ers have the best rushing defense and one of the best rushing attacks. Redskins are weak at running and defending the run.
I'm going with the 6-ATS 49ers.


Sea Seahawks @ Dal Cowboys -12 O/U 44
How upset must dallas be laying an egg on sunday night? Will they bounce back? At home they are stronger and the seahawks are historically weaker on the road. 12 is a lot and I hate going with so many favorites but the hawks have been playing so bad lately I just can't see them keeping it close. Dallas will take out frustration on them and will not stop at a lead but will keep going like they did against the rams.


Afternoon Games

Den Broncos @ Oak Radiers -8.5 O/U 42.5
Carson Palmer got 2 weeks with the team. McFadden is still hurt though. Denver got destroyed at home and will be looking for revenge. The problem is they don't have much power to exact that revenge. The Raiders will be a huge Question mark. This is a stay away game I think because you don't know how they'll be. Can't look at early season stats because Mcfadden is ? And palmer is ?. So I'll take the points.
**If McFadden does play though then this should be a pretty easy win and cover for the raiders.


Cinc Bengals @ Ten Titans -3 O/U 42
The Bengals are quietly putting up a good winning record. They haven't played anyone amazing like the patriots or green bay (well maybe buffalo whom they beat) nor do they this week. Titans held the colts in check.... Hooray for them. Titans have the worst run offense and the bengals the best run defense. Bengals win outright this line is a joke.
Weather says a chance of rain. Who knows could be showers but couple that with the great D by cincy and you get and under total.


NY Giants @ NE Patriots -8.5 O/U 51.5
This isn't 2007.
What happens in 2011? Giants rank 4th in pass offense and pats are 32nd in pass D. Yep. Offset by giants run O 30th and pats run d 9th. Pats pass O 2nd giants O-Defence 13th. Yada yada yada. Giants are a team to play to the level of the competition (see miami and buffalo). They have a history of developing a good defensive scheme. They layed the blueprints to stop Vick last season. The steelers and the cowboys stopped or slowed the pats down. The giants will look at this intensely and they will come up with something. Will it work?
Either brady goes apeshit and blasts them or the gmen keep it close. I believe in the latter.
**I am a giants fan so I may be delusional here

GB Packers -6 @ SD Chargers O/U 51
Man oh man that was a crazy finish to the monday night game. 2nd game in a row the chargers blow at the end. They'll bring that anger back to san diego for their first home game in a month. 2 road games and a bye.
The Schedule makers gave green bay a gift. They gave them a team that played a monday night game after thier bye. One of the hardest teams they'll play this season How does that happen?
This game has trap written on it. I do believe the chargers cover and even sneak away a win. Why? Packers look great offensively for sure but their defence is suspect. They have the 31st pass D. Bradford put up over 400yds on them. Chargers are the 6th passing offense and have the 4th passing D. They are angry and need a win.



Sunday Night

Balt Ravens @ Pitt Steelers -3.5 O/U 42
Smash mouth football. Steelers were embarrassed earlier in the year and now look to return the favor. Baltimore's offense has looked absolutely terrible. Ravens have played 3 road games and lost 2 of them only winning @ rams.
Steelers just had a huge win over New England. Do they fall flat this week? No.
I'm looking at the hot team in the steelers. Again would like it better at even 3.

Monday Night

Chi Bears @ Phi Eagles -8 O/U 47
The eagles are extremely overrated. They have yet to be an underdog this year. Can you believe that? They dropped to pickem against the giants but that's the closest. 8 points against a team coming off a bye and an extra day for the monday night game (how'd that happen?) !
Bears beat philly last year shutting down Vick.
I don't know this year. I do believe the line is too high though and go with the points and rested team.


Afternoon Game

Rams @ Cards No line yet
Will Bradford play, will Kolb play? I like the rams to win so far if Kolb is out and Bradford plays which is looking more likely. Until the line comes out though hard to say.


So that's how I'm seeing them at first glance. Things may change over the days. Please post your thoughts and lets get a good dialogue going on these.

[resteasy]

Picks are

Indy +7
Bucs +8
49ers -3
Chiefs -4
Bills -2
Houston -10.5
Rams +2
Bengals +3
Chargers +5
Giants +9
Bears +8

Bucs/Saints UNDER 50.5
Interesting fact. Last time they went over 50.5 was in 2001 and these teams meet twice a year.

[LordCC]

Good luck Rest Easy!

[parlay-vous]

falcons big guns are back, starting their ascent to the playoffs
8 pts is a lot and i like the under stat. tb+u
browns have too many distractions, holmgren/hillis mess
can't see the jets at 3-5, but who knows
are the chiefs blessed or what, may take the dolphins too lightly
really can't see was close, have to go with sf, was could be the start of a coming apart
12 is a lot, but what are you going to do take the seahawks? no thank you
oak rb and qb questions leave some doubt
8.5 is too much for a giants team not to cover
gb sd is a game where its up to the pack to lose, could happen. but gb is the best team in the nfl so its hard to go against them
the steelers will be waiting
philly is the better team, but 8 is a lot of points against a tough bears team and their d won't be playing like ryan's

Good Luck Resteasy

[resteasy]

thanks man like the thoughts.
I do believe KC sees the chargers playing an undefeated team and know that they have to win this game for a lead. This is their chance and they'll jump right out of the gate. I don't see miami as a comeback team so I have KC.

jets haven't won on the road, bills haven't lost at home. Which one gives first? Well, jets got extremely lucky to win that chargers game bills have been playing well and pretty consistent. Fred Jackson gets some good yards.

Anyhow here are some Teasers I am wagering on

3 team 6pt 1 for 1.8
Atl/Indy Over 38.5, TB +14. houston -5

4 team 6pt 1 to win 3
jets/bills over 38, buffalo +4.5, kc +1.5, SF +3

1.5 to win 4.5
dallas -5.5, cincy +9, cincy/tenn over 36, rams +8


parlays
50 for 540
buffalo -1.5, kc -4, sf -3, cincy +3

10 for 707
Kc-4, sf -3, oak -7, cincy +3, rams +3, nyg +8.5, sd +5.5

50 for 298
TB +8, TB/NO under 50, jets/buff over 44