(((( Rookieees Opening NFL Exclusive Play ~ MINN/N.O. WRITE-UP ))))

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

OPENING THURSDAY NIGHT

VIKINGS VS SAINTS

this is probably going to be the most bet on football game of the weekend being its the first one ... nevertheless we must dig deep and find statistics to help us one way or another... im going to give my stats i found then ill reveal my play after...

first the everyone stats that u will see inputed from various sites

H2H
Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

01/24/2010 Minn 28 NO 31 ~ NO by -3.5 Minnesota 54.0 Over*
10/06/2008 Minn 30 NO 27 ~ New Orleans by -3.5 Minnesota 47.0 Over*
09/25/2005 NO 16 Minn 33 ~ Minnesota by -4.0 Minnesota 44.5 Over*
10/17/2004 Minn 38 NO 31 ~ Minnesota by -4.0 Minnesota 53.0 Over*
12/15/2002 Minn 32 NO 31 ~ New Orleans by -7.0 Minnesota 50.5 Over*

VIKINGS
Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1.
Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC.
Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

SAINTS
Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.

OVER/UNDER
Under is 7-3 in Vikings last 10 games overall.
Over is 5-1-1 in Saints last 7 games in September.
Over is 16-6-1 in Saints last 23 home games.
Under is 8-3 in Saints last 11 games in Week 1.
Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games overall.
Over is 19-8-1 in Saints last 28 games on fieldturf.
Over is 28-12-1 in Saints last 41 vs. NFC.


you all get the picture as this is probably what many use for their capping purposes.... but i dig a little deeper and this is what i have come up with

this game isnt about the saints or vikings or last years championship game between the two... its not even about all the espn and reporters hoopla about the saints hits on brett or the vikings comments weve been hearing..... this game is simply going to be about two competitors who just love the game!!

Lets first start with Brett Favre... we all know his legacy as being one of the toughest and top QBS to play this game ( even thru his tirades the last few years ) but did you know he one of the top quarterbacks in september straight up....

Favre in September has a career 42-24 SU record (9-2 last 3 years) including winning/covering his last 3 opening week games with 3 different teams. ( last 2 on the road)

a few more stats

since 2000 on opening day Brett is 7-3 ATS ( 3-1 ATS on the road with 1 SU road dog winner )

in those opening games the total went under 7 out of 10 times / 1-3 under on the road and all 4 games in which his team was a dog ~~ this is the one stat that scares me for my over play... but remember we have the saints so read on... this is a tv prmetime slot and the over is 10-5 in all of Brett's primetime games including playoffs games since 2007....

since 2007 his last in GB , Brett Favre has played in 11 regular season primetime games going 6-5 ATS and 4-2 ATS in a doggie role ... but what is interesting is that 5 of those 6 wins came while on the road....now someone might say most of them (4) came in 07.... which is true being that since leaving GB and joining the Jets 08 and Vikings 09 his primetime games have gone 1-4 ATS on the road....yet you have to realize 3 of those ATS losses came in week 13/15/ and 16 last year.

Now Drew Brees really didnt get noticed till the end of his tenure with the sd chargers.... in san diego he was 1-4 in all primetime games and his only playoff game ~ going 1-4 at home (1-3 as HF) ... it should also be known that all 5 games went under the total

but times have changed and so has the outlook of saints nation as drew has become an icon of the league for what he has done to help the offense and make it run.....we look at the following

Drew Brees Saints era 2006 to present

In September Drew Brees has had a 14-13 SU record ( 5-1 ATS @ home last 2years)

He is 3-1 ATS in season openers with 2 overs and 2 unders
season openers @ home brees is 2-0 with 2 overs

yet the negative is he is 1-1 su and 0-2 ats vs minn @ home with 2 overs


In all 12 primetime games brees is 7-4-1 not counting playoffs for the saints , but when u add in the playoffs that number goes down to 8-7-1 ATS ... the bright side to this is that in those 16 combined games the over was hit 11 out of those 16 times ... yet only 6-4 at home... Im not going to combine his san diego stats ... it would just make him look that much medicre to favre.

ROOKIE THOUGHTS

like i said there is so much being talked about injuries and what not from vilma to sharper to percy to whoever they decide to say.... every team is doing the belichek injury bug these days..... the only 2 things u really need to look at is both quarterbacks.... there is just too much history with Brett Favre under the big lights as a dog in the seasons openers and for the month of september....PERIOD!!!.... and when you can throw in a team stat of minnesota being 6-2 ATS in its last 8 season openers ( 4-1 on the road with 2 SU dog wins) not to mention that the over went 4-1 in those 5 road games....I JUST CANT GO AGAINST IT....... not to take anything away from Drew Brees cuz I like the guy, hes good for football ... but in these type of games there is no comparison to the future hall of famer... ill give the saints their due for winning the championship, and ill give them the respect to play hard in front of their fans to help get the points needed to get our over too as the Saints are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 home games on primetime...........

I just hope that the way bases went for me today was a reflection of my putting in the work for this game for u guys.... nevertheless im riding the old man one more time BIG before he retires AGAIN !!!!


10*** EXCLUSIVE PLAY MINNESOTA +6 (-115 BODOG)
3*** OVER 48
2** MONEYLINE VIKINGS (+200)

[LordCC]

Great write up and good luck on the play my man!

[Classic Rock]

good luck with your play ,tough call on this one for me Vikes don't seem to be clicking together in pre-season

[allstr921]

i like the revenge factor here too. vikings have something to prove after blowimg the game with the 3 fumbles and pick. they should have won that game. thanks for the write up. good luck. im also on the vikes

[BigBear]

Originally Posted by Classic Rock

good luck with your play ,tough call on this one for me Vikes don't seem to be clicking together in pre-season

Good luck Rook........totally with ya CR. Lost most productive WR and QB has been mowing fields and now has new faces at WR. Just don't know how they'll click...........

[LAyZbOi]

Love the play, hope it cashes!!!

[g_rock65]

Great write up, as usual.

Love to read your stuff! Will riding on your coattails so, let's get it rolling!

[secondbase]

gl to the rookie

[Midnight Rider]

thanks for the write-up

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Originally Posted by g_rock65

great write up, as usual.

Love to read your stuff! Will riding on your coattails so, let's get it rolling!

lordcc great write up and good luck on the play my man!

midnight rider thanks for the write-up

secondbase gl to the rookie

layzboi love the play, hope it cashes!!!

allstr921 i like the revenge factor here too. Vikings have something to prove after blowimg the game with the 3 fumbles and pick. They should have won that game. Thanks for the write up. Good luck. Im also on the vikes

thanks fellas ... !!!!!!

[CANDY-MAN]

Good write up and the best of luck on Vikes ROOKIEEE,like it.

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Originally Posted by CANDY-MAN

Good write up and the best of luck on Vikes ROOKIEEE,like it.

thanks everyone ... lets start this season off a BIG positive note !!!!

[thunderdee]

Let start 1-0 like De la Salle......go vikes

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Originally Posted by thunderdee

Let start 1-0 like De la Salle......go vikes

easy win for the spartans 45-7

[Ron Mexico]

My nephew is on JV this year.

Great write up Rookie.

I should know tonight or tomorrow morning if I can make it up there. Maybe just Sat mid morning to sunday afternoon.

Good luck