((((( rookiees nfl week 13 ))))))

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

eagles at seahawks

very square play here as IMO these eagles have no shot with vince young .... whoever is calling the plays for these guys will really need to get lesean mccoy going in this game as last week they didnt use him whatsoever after building a 10 pt lead .... but the good thing about these eagles is that they do play well this season on the road as they are 7-3 in halfs on the road.... but the thing that troubles me is that it was against the likes of stl,atl,wash,buf,nyg.... i still think that even though seattle is at home there really isnt that big of an advantage for either team as seattle isnt the seatlle we remember years ago at home, in fact they are 3-6-1 in their home halfs and are currently on a 1-4 record in the first half at home.... will the eagles try to keep their playoffs hopes alive.... i think maybe for the first half and if not i think they will at least cover one as i dont believe that seattle can beat them for 2 halfs in this game on the back of marshall lynch or at the hands of tavaris jackson, therefore i will stab to win one half with these eagles with them at least thinking they still have a slim shot.



2** chase to win 1 half

#301 philly -1.5 LEG A


ADD ON FOR TONIGHT

ive heard enough of the eagles have thrown in the towel in all these forums this morning.... ive heard enough of how the seahawks wont be able to move the ball without wr sidney rice, a sore shoulder qb jackson and a hit and miss rb lynch....i may be going on a limb here but ive waited and decided finally that i am going to chase this over tonight due to a few things

1) combined these 2 teams are 10-2 to the over on the field surface tonight
2) combined the eagles last 11 on the road with the hawks last 4 games at home ~~ 13-2 to the over
3) the last 5 december games for both teams ~~ 9-1 to the over


other trends provided by covers


Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games as a road favorite.
Over is 13-3 in Eagles last 16 games in Week 13.
Over is 8-2-1 in Seahawks last 11 games as a home underdog.
Over is 13-4 in Seahawks last 17 vs. NFC.
Over is 11-4-1 in Seahawks last 16 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 16-6 in Seahawks last 22 games overall.
Over is 17-7-1 in Seahawks last 25 games as an underdog.

i just dont understand this line of 43 with all the hoopla about these 2 teams and when the seahawks have only hit this line only twice all year ~~ the giants game was a turnover fest and the only home game to go over was the game against atlanta where it was a showcase of a short gameplan of short throws from both teams... yes travaris jackson threw for 25/38 for 320 yards to 7 different recievers .... he should be able to do the same thing in this game against this banged up defense.... on the other side i think that the eagles will catch balls this week and use mccoy as they were suppose to last week...... this should help us steal an over here in one of these halfs , whether it be the first or second as some interesting stats on my side show that ~~ the seahawks have had an over half in each of their home games besides their home opener in week 3 against the cardinals in which both offensive lines had trouble protecting their qb (7 sacks) creating long downs and wasted chances ~~ and the eagles have had an over half in all but 2 games on the road, but those 2 games were where RB mccoy was able to run at will on both the giants and the redskins.... this seatlle team is tough against the run ranked #11 and giving up around a 100 per a game and have played well in its last 3 giving up only 75.7 per a gm .... this leads me to believe that philly will use mccoy on short routes and let him gain yards that way instead of risking him trying to run into this defense.... if this scenerio plays out as i expect then we will see the same kind of game these 2 teams played against atlanta ~~ in which both games went well over the posted total.... WE JUST NEED ONE !!!


5***** CHASE TO WIN 1 OVER HALF

#301 OVER ~~ LEG A OVER 21.5

[LordCC]

Best of luck this week Rookie!

[bigALbones50]

nice trends for the over

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

WON LAST TIME OUT.... WITH THE OVER IN THE FIRST HALF BUT DUMP BOTH HALFS ON THE PHILLY CHASE

FOR TODAY


THIS WILL BE THE ONE GAME I WILL BE BANGING PRETTY HARD TOMORROW AND IF YOU CHOOSE TO FOLLOW ALONG I WISH THE EACH OF US THE BEST OF LUCK

CHASE OF THE YEAR ~~ ATLANTA VS HOUSTON

MY 15* CHASE OF THE YEAR WILL BE PLAYED CHASING THE UNDER IN THIS GAME... THERE ARE A LOT OF TOUTS LEANING TO THE UNDER THIS GAME AND MOST OF THE TIME IM AGAINST THEM.... BUT THIS IS A CHASE AND WE WILL HAVE 2 CHANCES TO WIN JUST 1 HALF AND THIS GAME HAS TOO MANY GREAT STATISTICAL NUMBERS FROM BOTH TEAMS THAT REFLECT HOW I CHASE HALFS... FIRST THE UNDER NUMBERS IN WHICH MOST TOUTS AND SERVICES ARE USING ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT HOUSTON HAS A 3RD STRING QUARTERBACK.... THE PRETTY OBVIOUS

Under is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 games overall.
Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 17-7 in Texans last 24 games following a ATS win.

BUT WHAT THEY DONT REFLECT IS HOW I TRACK HOW TEAMS ARE PLAYING BY HALVES.... SEE IT DOESNT MATTER WHO HAS QB FOR THE TEXANS , THIS SEASON THEY HAVE HAD AN UNDER HALF IN EVERY SINGLE GAME THEY HAVE PLAYED INCLUDING ALL 5 HOME GAMES.... COUPLED WITH THAT ATLANTA HAS HAD AN UNDER IN EVERY GAME BUT 1 THIS SEASON THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG UNDER PLAY.... BUT TO EVEN ADD SOMETHING MORE TO THIS, HOW ABOUT THAT ATLANTA HAS GONE UNDER IN THE FIRST HALF 9 OUT OF 11 TIMES THIS SEASON....

BOTH TEAMS WILL TRY TO ESTABLISH THE RUN AS THE #8 TEAM IN THE NFC ATL 4.0 RPC (117.7 YPG) AND THE #2 TEAM IN THE AFC HOU 4.3 (151.7 YPG) ARE TEAMS THAT SET UP THE PASS BY THEIR RUSH.... YET THE FLIP TO THE COIN IS THAT BOTH TEAMS PLAY WELL AGAINST THE RUN AS ATL RUSH DEF GIVES UP ONLY 3.7 YPC AND 83.5 YPG AND HOU GIVES UP 4.2 AND GIVES UP AROUND 92.....

PASSING DEFENSE WITH BOTH TEAMS ARE ABOUT EVEN YET SOME WILL SAY THAT WITH THE 3RD STRING QB THE ADVANTAGE GOES TO ATLANTA BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT HOUSTON LEADS THE WHOLE NFL WITH A 50.7 COMPLETION RATE WHILE HOLDING QBS TO A PALSY 62.1 PASSER RATING GIVING UP ONLY 176 THRU THE AIR.... AND THEY ARE NEAR THE TOP OF THE LEAGUE IN INTERCEPTIONS WITH 15 WHILE POSTING A +11 TURNOVER RATE...

THE X FACTOR IN THIS WHOLE GAME IS GOING TO BE T.J. YATES ... EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE ATLANTA DEFENSE IS GOING TO STACK UP THE BOX, BUT WHAT IS NOT GOING GOOD FOR ATLANTA IS THEIR BEST CORNER BRENT GRIMES IS OUT AND THIS YATES KID ISNT SO BAD.... HE COMPLETED 66.8 % OF HIS PASSES LAST YEAR WHICH WAS #1 IN THE ACC , HE HAD THE 2ND BEST PASSING RATING AND HE PASSED FOR OVER 5500 YARDS IN HIS LAST 2 SEASONS AT NORTH CAROLINA.... BUT THAT WAS THE ACC AND THIS IS THE NFL AND SURE HE MAY DO SOMETHING BUT IF HE MAKES A MISTAKE I GUARANTEE THAT THE COORDINATOR WILL START PUSHING THE BALL OFF TO ARIAN FOSTER.... THEY HAVE A 2 GAME CUSHIN BUT WITH CINCY UP NEXT ON THE ROAD~ I DONT THINK THEY WILL THAT BIG OF RISK TAKERS IN THIS GAME UNLESS THEY GET BEHIND EARLY

ROOKIEES FINAL THOUGHT

I LOOK FOR THIS GAME TO PLAY 2 WAYS .... ONE WAY IS THAT BOTH TEAMS WILL TRY TO RUN THE BALL TO OPEN THE PASSING GAME TO MOVE THE CHAINS IN WHICH WILL BE A WELL FOUGHT BACK AND FORTH GAME AS BOTH TEAMS ARE BALANCED ENOUGH TO DO BOTH....THE PERFECT SCENERIO IS A FIRST DOWN HERE AND A PUNT THERE..... THE DEFENSE FROM HOUSTON SIDE HAS HAD 35 SACKS THIS YEAR SO I THINK THEY WILL BE ABLE TO PUT SOME PRESSURE IN THE BACKFIELD TO FORCE MATT RYAN INTO LONGER PLAYS OR RUSHED THROWS....AND THE ONLY WAY TO COUNTER THIS IS BY RUNNING STRAIGHT AT THE DEFENSE OR QUICK SCREENS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS RUNS THE CLOCK..... THE SECOND WAY THIS GAME WILL PLAY OUT IS THAT SOMEONE IS GOING TO BENIFIT FROM A TURNOVER IN THIS GAME AND IF THIS GAME GETS OUT OF LINE EARLY YOU CAN EXPECT A LOT OF BALL CONTROLLING BY ONE TEAM OR THE OTHER IN A CONSERVATIVE APRROACH......

EITHER WAY.... WE WILL COVER AN UNDER HALF IN THIS GAME...


15*** CHASE OF THE YEAR


#359 CHASING THE UNDER TO WIN 1 ~ LEG A ~ UNDER 19.5 ATL/HOU 1H



ALSO PLAYING A SMALL CHASE WITH ATLANTA IN THIS GAME

#359 ~~4**** FALCONS CHASE TO WIN 1 HALF LEG A ~ PICKEM 1H~


MY OTHER BIG CHASE FOR THE DAY WILL BE ON THE RAVENS

#355 ~~7**** RAVENS CHASE TO WIN 1 HALF LEG A ~ -3.5 1H ~~


TONIGHT CHASE WILL BE ON THE DETROIT LIONS

#363 ~~ 5**** LIONS CHASE TO WIN 1 HALF LEG A ~~ +6

[Victor]

Good luck THE_ROOKIEEE!

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Monday night football

san diego vs jax

what a crappy game this has turned out to be for a monday night with no implications whatsoever... But i have a feeling that this san diego team will be able to rise above what the season has done thus far and with some help could sneak into the division title.... Now i know thats asking a lot but the raiders are the raiders.... They just lost to miami , have gb up next, a sandwich game with detroit and a road venture in arrowhead and finish up with these chargers on new years day.... The broncos can ride on faith and tebow for so long and how he performs over the december months in cold rain and snow with chi,ne and buf will decide his season this year... Which leads me to believe this...

San diego usually tails off toward the end of the season but i think the change of times starts tonight and with a win here they could easily be motivated to run the tables and have a showdown with the raiders on new years day for the division.... Some of you may look and say how could i possibly beleive in that... Well let me explain.

The x factor for this whole season has been the missing of linebacker shaun phillips ... His foot was hurt more than we knew in week 5 against the broncos and it showed the following week against the jets as they rushed for over a 150 yards right at the chargers defense.... The chargers have had noone to pick up what he brings to the defense as he missed weeks 8-11 in which were all losses... He came back last week and basically was getting up to game speed in another loss, but the offense of sd didnt help and i will get to that in a minute..... He will be fully 100% for this game and with him in their lineup they are able to bring more options towards blaine gabbert and even more so help in containment of jones-drew....

Now san diego offense is just in shambles but if you give rivers some time , he will eat you alive.... Last week the #3 afc team leader in sacks broncos caused all kinds of havoc for rivers and got into his dome... Interceptions from chicago being in the backfield cost him big time in the chicago gm and the raiders found holes all day in that game.... But todays game will be completely different as the jags are at the bottom in sacks as none of the defensive starting line tonight seem a threat to be in the backfield often.... 2.5 of mincys 4.5 sacks came against the colts and rotating de j.chick has only 2 for the year other than them 2 this injured dl has produced not much.... If the linebackers choose to blitz they will lean to d. Smith 1.5 sacks and p. Posluszy 2 sacks to bring heat...but by their stats this season, they havent had much success.....in fact the whole team as a group has 23 for the year near the middle of the pack of the afc....

With that being said imo this is where i think the chargers will have a big advantage being if they dont have someoone harrassing rivers he will throw all day ~~ if they blitz i look to a lot of underneath coverage passes to a.gates and short screens to mathews or tolbert....

I also look at the houston games that the jags played and despite them playing close i noticed 2 things ... Their first meeting as 10 point dogs the time of possession was so much into the texans favor 35 -25 , which shows me that they really cant stop a 3 threat offense.... In the last game against the texans they kept it close and the time of possession was closer , but that game lienert went down and they didnt know what the kid i talked about yesterday was capable of in t.j. Yates... Had they known what to expect i think they wouldve opened the offense a little more....

So with all that i just said this is how my official plays for tonight will be


#375 ~~ 7**** moneyline -160
#375 ~~ 3*** chargers -3 for game

#375 ~~ 5*** charger chase to win 1 half ~~ leg a -2.5 1h

good luck tonight with your plays

[THE_ROOKIEEE]