Saints vs. 49ers Line Movement

[Don Giovanni]

Heading into week 1 with a strong pre-season record (meanlingless), everyone was hugging the Niner's nuts. Now after losing to the lowly Seahawks, people feel SF has been exposed/overhyped, etc.

Of course home field is definitely an advantage, but the line is only at 5 or 5 1/2 (6 at Bodog) against the defending Super Bowl champs who seemed to have not lost much steam.

For the record, I am a Niners fan. They are my favorite team in all pro sports, so I am not putting them down. I am just a little confused why this line is so low. It jumped when it first came out, but since then, I haven't noticed too much movement, at least in my books. Plus, it seems the public have been hitting NO hard, but there hasn't been much movement in the spread since the initial shift. Am I missing something here? Something just feels a little off here. It's like they are begging you to take the Saints (and people are).

BTW, I felt the same way about the NY/IND line yesterday and really wanted to take the Colts big, but everyone and their mom was so hardcore preaching the Giants, that I was talked out of it. Feel free to chime in.

[CheeseburgerEddie]

When something is too good to be true, it usually is. Books aren't going to leave themselves exposed to getting one sided (like tonight) unless they feel confident in the other side. When everyone here, including most touts, are taking the Saints, its time to go the other way. Since 2003, home teams with 25% or less on them have covered 54.2% of the time. There are already 64000 bets offshore on this game, and by kick off it will be well over 100000. Books know what they are doing by keeping this line where it is. If you cant find a way to take the home dog on Monday night, then pass it up....

[upinya83]

POLL....SAINTS or NINERS?

still early but 60/40 split here at the mall favoring the 49ers -

[ptotheb]

For the record, while there were a lot of people on here preaching the Giants (I had them myself), I think the %s were on the Colts and the line still dropped. the %s are on NO for tonight, and the line has gone up, albiet not at the right you might expect.

[CheeseburgerEddie]

The line is doing what it is supposed to, Im not disagreeing with that. However, on a monday night with a such a huge following, why are the books only keeping it within a half point of what it started at? Most other times, it would cause at least a 1.5 move with such a popular game (normally). I believe this line will come back down to 4.5 or even 4 within an hour of game time.

[CANDY-MAN]

Howdy Don I agree with what has been said about the line movement being a little constipated and look for it to move a little closer to game time if the public stays on the 49ers.Just wanted to add to the post about the Giants and the under that I also played.I knew that Indy/over was the play.But a friend who was once a local before I started playing off shore told me about the $ he had made and we were both hitting good last night and for that reason I wanted to protect my lead and played the Giants /under ever step of the way I had the feeling I was walking into a ambush which it turned out to be.Don't have any wise words of betting to give you ,other than letting you know I made the same mistake.It happens, best of luck tonight though and the rest of the season.

[LordCC]

For what it's worth, Lang has a 10 dimer on San Francisco. So far this weekend he has been horrible losing each play. Take that for what it's worth I guess.

[justdonating]

Originally Posted by LordCC

For what it's worth, Lang has a 10 dimer on San Francisco. So far this weekend he has been horrible losing each play. Take that for what it's worth I guess.

Only a 10 dimer means he will win tonight. Sets up a bigger losing play later this week.

[Don Giovanni]

Thanks all for your input. Half hour and still no movement. I don't trust the spread so I've decided to put 0.4u on SF to win at +205 just to see what happens. I figure if the books are keeping the spread under two FGs, then it can be anyone's game, especially for a home dog. Saints will probably win easily, and if they do, I'm only down a little change, but I'm curious to see why this line is where it is. BOL to all!

[CheeseburgerEddie]

As I expected, last minute drop to 4.5. Pushed my bet even further.