Season totals for all 32 teams

[NFL Insider]

Arizona Cardinals over 7.5
Atlanta Falcons under 4.5
Baltimore Ravens under 6
Buffalo Bills over 8
Carolina Panthers over 7.5
Chicago Bears under 8
Cincinnati Bengals over 7.5
Cleveland Browns over 8
Dallas Cowboys over 10.5
Denver Broncos over 7.5
Detroit Lions over 6.5
Green Bay Packers over 8
Houston Texans over 7.5
Indianapolis Colts under 11
Jacksonville Jaguars over 10
Kansas City Chiefs under 6
Miami Dolphins over 5.5
Minnesota Vikings over 8.5
New England Patriots under 12.5
New Orleans Saints over 8.5
New York Giants under 9
New York Jets over 7
Oakland Raiders over 6.5
Philadelphia Eagles under 8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers under 9
San Diego Chargers under 10.5
San Francisco 49ers over 6.5
Seattle Seahawks under 8.5
St. Louis Rams under 6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 8
Tennessee Titans over 8
Washington Redskins over 7.5

[Dr. Jack]

[Dr. Jack]

I like the Bears under among a few others. GL

[BigFratDaddy]

the lions over 6.5 seems like such a sucker bet

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by BigFratDaddy

the lions over 6.5 seems like such a sucker bet

I am a sucker because I am going to play that one. It does seem kind of easy, huh?

[BigFratDaddy]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

I am a sucker because I am going to play that one. It does seem kind of easy, huh?

i know and looking at their schedule they could easily start out 4-0. theres no telling what kind of team theyll be this year imo

[Dr. Jack]

True, they have an offense that should keep them in most games. Time will tell

[BigdaddyQH]

The Chargers over 10.5 is the easiest play on the board by far. They play the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL and have a healthy backfield. Their schedule includes the AFC East, good for at least 3 wins, and the NFC South, good for another 3 wins. Throw in 5 wins against one of the, if not the worst divisions in football (the AFC West) and there is 11 without much effort at all.

[BigFratDaddy]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

The Chargers over 10.5 is the easiest play on the board by far. They play the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL and have a healthy backfield. Their schedule includes the AFC East, good for at least 3 wins, and the NFC South, good for another 3 wins. Throw in 5 wins against one of the, if not the worst divisions in football (the AFC West) and there is 11 without much effort at all.

agree

[Joe D]

Careful w/Dallas over 10.5. Seems like a sucker bet to me.

[BigFratDaddy]

Originally Posted by Joe D

Careful w/Dallas over 10.5. Seems like a sucker bet to me.

lol

[Steel]

Rams Un 6.5 looks gggggooooooooddddddd!!!!!

[Da Fanatic]

Giants under 9. I will be betting that one in Vegas next month.

[lucky 13]

Panthers over 7.5 Delhomme and Smith should do good this year. Plus play Falcons twice (2 easy wins)

[Kramer]

Predicting Season Win Totals
Data includes 1996 to 2006 seasons]

LAST YEAR PROPS :


1. Prior Season Wins # of cases Ave Net 4+ Wins 5+ Wins 6+ Wins 7+ Wins 8+ Wins 9+ Wins 10+ Wins 11+ Wins 12+ Wins
1 3 +6.0 100 % 100 % 66 % 66 % 33 % 33 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
2 5 +2.8 60 % 40 % 40 % 20 % 20 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
3 13 +3.6 84 % 76 % 61 % 53 % 30 % 23 % 23 % 7 % 7 %
4 27 +3.0 96 % 88 % 77 % 51 % 37 % 22 % 11 % 7 % 7 %
5 29 +2.0 96 % 72 % 62 % 48 % 41 % 31 % 24 % 20 % 3 %
6 37 +2.1 89 % 86 % 72 % 64 % 64 % 56 % 40 % 16 % 8 %
7 36 +0.2 86 % 75 % 63 % 50 % 50 % 41 % 30 % 19 % 11 %
8 39 -0.2 92 % 87 % 82 % 74 % 56 % 38 % 17 % 17 % 12 %
9 41 -0.4 92 % 92 % 82 % 68 % 60 % 46 % 39 % 29 % 24 %
10 39 -1.8 100 % 89 % 84 % 69 % 61 % 48 % 30 % 17 % 10 %
11 26 -1.8 100 % 92 % 88 % 88 % 80 % 53 % 46 % 34 % 23 %
12 21 -2.3 100 % 95 % 90 % 90 % 76 % 61 % 57 % 33 % 33 %
13 16 -3.7 100 % 93 % 93 % 87 % 68 % 68 % 50 % 31 % 25 %
14 7 -5.3 100 % 100 % 85 % 71 % 42 % 42 % 42 % 28 % 28 %
15 2 -4.5 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 50 % 0 %

- Records only include regular season wins

ANALYSIS: Obviously the temptation is to take these numbers a little too literally and as indicative of how "any team" in a given category will do the following season (eg assuming that any 6-10 team has a 63% chance of getting eight wins or more).


This would be a bad idea since the table above is looking at things blindly, without regard for the "season wins" line set on a team -- in other words while those 6-10 teams may as a group get to 8+ wins most of the time, it's highly likely that the ones which were forecast to do poorly (eg having a season over/under line of say 5.5 wins) don't meet the percentage, whereas teams forecast to do well (say 8.5 wins) may be even higher than the class norm.




Having said that, there are some obviously strong historical results to note -- the vast majority of NFL teams get at least five wins regardless of their prior season performance, while few get to 11+ even with a superior record in the previous year.


The general message to take away from the above is that teams coming off strong seasons tend to have a hard time matching expectations and teams that had a rough year often turn it around pretty quickly. Another way to put that in a more quantitative form is:


Teams coming off 1-6 win seasons on average win 2.6 more games
Teams coming off 7-9 win seasons on average lose 0.1 more games
Teams coming off 10+ win seasons on average lose 2.4 more games

14-2 record in 2006
San Diego (11 wins, over-115)

There's only been seven 14-2 teams in the past eleven years, and only two made it to eleven wins the following season. Tiny sample of course, but a sign of how hard it is to repeat a standout regular season.

FINISHED 11-5 PUSH

13-3 records in 2006
Baltimore (9.5 wins, over-140), Chicago (10.5 wins, over+100)

Well 50% of prior year thirteen win teams have made it to ten wins as a follow-up, but only 31% have made it to eleven wins, so the Bears are a tad dicey from this one factor.
BOTH UNDERS

12-4 records in 2006
Indianapolis (11 wins, over-105), New England (11.5 wins, over-130)

Only 33% of 12-4 teams bounced back to win twelve games the following season. Could these two powerhouse teams of the AFC go under-under though?
BOTH OVERS
10-6 records in 2006
New Orleans (9 wins, over-125), N.Y. Jets (8 wins, over+115), Philadelphia (9.5 wins, over-120) BOTH UNDER

It's been about fifty-fifty for ten win prior year teams getting to at least nine and a winning record again. Howeveronly 30% of such teams have made it to ten or more.
9-7 records in 2006
Dallas (9 wins, over-135), Denver (9.5 wins, over-120), Kansas City (8 wins, over+115), Seattle (9 wins, over+100) BOTH OVER

Nine win teams have come back with a .500 or better season over 60% of the time, which might make you a little curious about the Chiefs at +115 to go over.
8-8 records in 2006
Carolina (9 wins, over-105), Cincinnati (9.5 wins, over-125), Green Bay (7.5 wins, over+110), Jacksonville (9 wins, over-115), N.Y. Giants (8.5 wins, over-115), Pittsburgh (9 wins, over+100), St. Louis (7.5 wins, over-120), Tennessee (7 wins, over-115)

A quarter of the league last year wound up at 8-8 and the history would suggest that one or maybe two clubs can crack the double digit win mark in 2007.
CAR - UNDER , CIN UNDER , GREEN BAY OVER
JVILLE OVER , GIANTS OVER , PIT OVER , ST.L UNDER , TEN - OVER
4 O , 3 U

7-9 records in 2006
Atlanta (7.5 wins, over-125), Buffalo (6.5 wins, over-115), San Francisco (7.5 wins, over-165) ATL UND , BUF OV , SF UND

There have been no seven win teams that have come back with seven again in our sample, but half made it to eight or more as a follow up.
6-10 records in 2006
Houston (6.5 wins, over-105), Miami (7 wins, over-125), Minnesota (7 wins, over-115) HOU - OVER , MIA UND , MIN - OVER

6-10 teams have often made good turnarounds with 56% reaching 9-7 or better. So 'over' might be the best initial thought here.

5-11 records in 2006
Arizona (7.5 wins, over-120), Washington (7.5 wins, over-105)

The fans in the desert have been waiting a long time for the Cardinals to turn the corner. Overall 41% of prior year five win teams have made it to .500 or better.
BOTH OVER
4-12 records in 2006
Cleveland (6 wins, over-120), Tampa Bay (7 wins, over-125) BOTH OVER

Both these teams land lines suggesting they will improve by two more more wins, and while that's not uncommon with 4-12 teams, you should have good reasons to "believe"...
3-13 records in 2006
Detroit (6.5 wins, over-120) DET OVER

There is hope in Detroit if you believe the historical patterns as 53% of 3-13 clubs have come back with a respectable 7 wins or more.
2-14 records in 2006
Oakland (5 wins, over-135)

The Raiders obviously want to forget last year and with a new coach and new quarterback, the forgetting should at least be relatively easy. Of the five 2-14 teams in the sample though, none made it to eight wins the next year.


Again, all of this was just an exercise and should not be construed as a full scale analysis of how to play the season win numbers, for that you'll need to delve deeper...