Stat-Man SB System Winner

[Da Fanatic]

The Super Bowl Prediction System – Steelers in an Upset Published Date: 1/24/2011
The betting lines currently favor the Packers, but the Super Bowl Prediction system picks the Steelers.

In my Super Bowl prediction system there are 12 different indicators, each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 55% to 67% of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners. This year the prediction system picks the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their seventh franchise Super Bowl and third in the last six years.

Last year the system had the New Orleans Saints winning 7 of the 12 indicators. That also went against the grain given that the Indianapolis Colts were favored in Las Vegas. Now again, the system goes with the underdog. I like that. The system has a strong track record going against the line.

But I must admit. Last year I called it a toss-up. The prediction system has not performed well when a team wins less than eight of the indicators. Going back all-time, the system is 7-7 with less than eight indicators.

That’s not the case this year. The Steelers win nine of the twelve indicators. Teams with eight or more indicators have won 21 of 26 Super Bowls. Here is the scoreboard of all the indicators, with the best indicators at the bottom. Note that two of the three predictors that favor the Green Bay Packers are weaker ones:


Category Winning Percentage Team with Advantage
Opponent Net Passing Yards .545 Packers
Rushing Yards .568 Steelers
Points Scored .568 Packers
Rushing Yards / Attempt .591 Steelers
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt .591 Steelers
Fewer Net Passing Yards .614 Steelers
Turnover Differential .614 Steelers
Opponent Rushing Yards .636 Steelers
Point Differential .648 Packers
Regular Season Record .648 Steelers
Opponent Total Yards / Game .659 Steelers
Points Allowed .670 Steelers

There are five defensive indicators, four offensive ones, and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones.