Super Bowl 43

[Capt. N-R]

I have condensed this year's writeup as some of my normal filters are not in play. I still have them on file for future year's. But here is what is applicable:


Poor defenses struggle in the Super Bowl. This years Giants have allowed 351 regular season points.

Let's see what teams allowing 300 points have done:

2007 Giants (351 allowed) won 21-17 over the Patriots
2006 Colts (360 allowed) won 29-17 over the Bears
2003 Carolina (304 allowed) Lost to Patriots 32-29 but covered
2002 Oakland (304 allowed) lost to Tampa 48-21
1999 Titans (324 allowed) lost to Rams 23-16
1998 Denver (309) beat Falcons 34-19
1996 Patriots (313) lost to Packers 21-35
1995 Steelers (327) lost to Cowboys 17-27
1994 Chargers (306) lost to 49ers 26-49
1991 Bills (318) lost to Redskins 24-37
1988 Bengals (329) lost 49ers 16-20
1986 Broncos (327) lost to Giants 20-39
1983 Raiders and Redskins both qualify---throw it out
1981 Cincy (304) lost to 49ers 21-26
1980 Raiders (306) beat the Eagles 27-10
1979 Rams (309) lost to the Steelers 19-31

So there have been 15 Super Bowls with one team allowing 300 points---and that team has lost 11 times. Note the 1998 Broncos had an offense that scored over 500 (though it didn't lead the league in scoring) to bail it out. The 1980 Raiders stand out as the lone exception that doesn't make sense. If you have a poor defense----YOU BETTER HAVE AN OFFENSE TO COVER YOU.


One other interesting stat is Regular Season Scoring net Differential. This is important in picking the SU winner not necessarily the ATS winner.



2007 Patriots +315, Giants +22 (Giants 21-17)
2006 Bears +172 Colts +67 (Colts 29-17)
2005 Seahawks +181 Steelers +131 (Steelers 21-10)
2004 after 14 weeks Pats +147, Eagles +164 (Eagles mailed in the last two)
2003 Panthers +21, Patriots +110 (Pats win 32-29)
2002 Bucs +150, Raiders +146 (Bucs win 48-21)
2001 Rams +230, Pats +99 (Pats win 20-17)
2000 Ravens +168, Giants +82 (Ravens win 34-7)
1999 Rams +284, Titans +68 (Rams win 23-16)
1998 Broncos +192, Falcons +153 (Broncos win 34-19)
1997 Denver +185, GB +140 (Broncos win 31-24)
1996 GB +246, Pats +105 (Packers win 35-21)
1995 Dallas +144, Steelers +80 (Cowboys win 27-17)
1994 SF +209, SD +75 (49ers win 49-26)
1993 Dallas +145, Buffalo +87 (Dallas wins 30-13)
1992 Dallas +166, Buffalo +98 (Dallas wins 52-17)
1991 Wash. 261, Buffalo +140 (Wash. wins 37-24)
1990 Buffalo 165, Giants +124 (Giants win 20-19)
1989 SF 189, Denver +136 (SF wins 55-10)
1988 Cin 119, SF +75 (SF wins 20-16)
1987 Den 91, Wash 94 (Wash. wins 42-10)
1986 Giants +135, Denver +51 (Giants win 39-20)
1985 Bears +258, Pats +72 (Bears win 46-10)
1984 49ers +248, Miami +215 (49ers win 38-16)
1983 Redskins +209, Raiders +104 (Raiders win 38-9)

There are four tidbits to draw from the net differential data

Note: the team with the higher differential is 17-8 SU in the last 25 Super Bowls

Note: If your team has a higher differential and IS THE UNDERDOG: your team (1987 Wash., 1988 Cincy, 1997 Denver, 2002 Tampa, 2004 Philly (after 14 weeks)), 2006 Bears is 5-2 ATS and 3-4 SU DOES APPLY THIS YEAR

Note: If your team has a differential of +240 or more: it is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS (2007 Patriots, 1999 Rams, 1996 Packers, 1991 Redskins, 1985 Bears, 1984 49ers)

Note: If your team has a differential of less than 90: it is 4-8 SU and 5-6-1 ATS (ironically the 1980 Raiders defied these odds as well)

Note: If the differential between the teams is 80 or more, the stronger team is 9-4 SU

Another FILTER FOR DEFENSE: Bet against any team that allowed more than 21 in its previous game as they are 3-7 ATS: (The Cardinals allowed 25 to the Eagles)

2006 Colts (34) beat the Bears 29-17
2004 Patriots (27) won but no cover 24-21 over the Eagles
2002 Raiders (24) got blitzed 48-21
2001 Rams Lost 20-17 as 14 point chalk
1998 Falcons got routed 34-19
1995 Cowboys (27) failed to cover as 13 point chalk 27-17 in a close game all the way
1994 49ers (28) won and covered big 49-26 as 18 point chalk. Their allowing 28 was against a Dallas team that won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years and was in the PRE-FREE AGENCY ERA so most players were still there.
1987 Broncos (33) were smoked as small chalk 42-10
1984 Miami (28) were drilled 38-16 by the 49ers
1980 Raiders (27) They destroy every filter


Here is a FINAL FILTER: PICK THE BETTER SCORING DEFENSE IF THE DIFFERENTIAL IS 35 or more points

Look at points allowed in the regular season. Look back over the years since we went to 16 games and see how a 35 point disparity shows up in this game. I excluded the strike impacted 1982 and 1987 seasons

1978 Steelers (195) 35 Cowboys (208) 31
1979 Steelers (262) 31 Rams (309) 19
1980 Raiders (306) 27 Eagles (222) 10 (these Raiders of 1980 destroy every filter)
1981 49ers (250) 26 Bengals (304) 21
1983 Raiders (338) 38 Redskins (332) 9
1984 49ers (227) 38 Dolphins (298) 16
1985 Bears (198) 46 Patriots (290) 10
1986 Giants (236) 39 Broncos (327) 20
1988 49ers (294) 20 Bengals (329) 16
1989 49ers (253) 55 Broncos (226) 10
1990 Giants (211) 20 Bills (263) 19
1991 Redskins (224) 37 Bills (318) 24
1992 Cowboys (243) 52 Bills (281) 17
1993 Cowboys (229) 30 Bills (242) 13
1994 49ers (296) 49 Chargers (306) 26
1995 Cowboys (291) 27 Steelers (327) 17
1996 Packers (210) 35 Patriots (313) 21
1997 Broncos (287) 31 Packers (282) 24
1998 Broncos (309) 34 Falcons (289) 19
1999 Rams (242) 23 Titans (324) 16
2000 Ravens (165) 34 Giants (246) 7
2001 Patriots (272) 20 Rams (273) 17
2002 Bucs (196) 48 Raiders (304) 21
2003 Patriots (238) 32 Panthers (304) 29
2004 Eagles 202 Patriots 246 (after 14 weeks) 24-21
2005 Seahawks (271) 10 Steelers (258) 21
2006 Colts 360 Bears 255 Colts win 29-17
2007 Patriots 274 Giants 351 Giants 21-17
2008 Steelers 223 Cardinals 426 (Note: this is the largest disparity in Super Bowl History by a wide margin)

Here is what stands out:

1. When there is a 35 point disparity in scoring defense, the better defense is 16-4 SU and 12-6-2 ATS

The Pick:

4* Steelers -6.5

Many sharps are riding the underdog today. The numbers are too compelling for me to take the Cardinals and its feel good story. Much has been written about the familiarity of the teams. And the Cardinals possess the best player on the field in Fitzgerald. But the rest points to the Steelers.

It is wise to side with the stronger conference in the Super Bowl. Look at the total wins accumulated by the playoff teams. The AFC has 67 wins to the NFC having 63 this year. Going back to 1990---if there is a 4 win differential or more that conference is 9-4 SU. The Steelers survived the tougher bracket without question.

Look at common games this year: New England, Dallas, Washington, Philly, and the Giants. The Steelers aggregate score was 96-65. The Cardinals aggregate was 103-180. If you throw out the Cardinals two worst games in the five it is 76-85.

When you factor a 200 plus differential in points allowed this year it is too hard to pass. Teams allwoing 240 or less in the regular season are 10-2 SU since 1978 (exluding head to head matchups where one wins and one loses) The Steelers will slow Edgerin down and put the ball in Warner's hands. Nobody has run on the Steelers. The Vikings have the beef in the middle and they totally disrupted the Cardinals in a rout in December.

A lot fell right for the Cardinals to get here. The caught the Falcons in week 1 and a rookie QB. They caught Jake Delhomme in the worst playoff performance in the last 15 years. They caught a tired Eagles team playing its third straight road game crossing three time zones and even yet had a chance but its kicker missed a FG, an extra point, and kicked out of bounds to set up another Cards score.

Willie Parker is now fresh and Heath Miller is too. The Steelers are sneaky good on offense and should put up some numbers against the Cardinals.

Steelers 31 Cards 16