The Super Bowl Prediction System

[Sweetleaf22]

The betting lines currently favor the Packers, but the Super Bowl Prediction system picks the Steelers.

In my Super Bowl prediction system there are 12 different indicators, each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 55% to 67% of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners. This year the prediction system picks the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their seventh franchise Super Bowl and third in the last six years.

Last year the system had the New Orleans Saints winning 7 of the 12 indicators. That also went against the grain given that the Indianapolis Colts were favored in Las Vegas. Now again, the system goes with the underdog. I like that. The system has a strong track record going against the line.

But I must admit. Last year I called it a toss-up. The prediction system has not performed well when a team wins less than eight of the indicators. Going back all-time, the system is 7-7 with less than eight indicators.

That’s not the case this year. The Steelers win nine of the twelve indicators. Teams with eight or more indicators have won 21 of 26 Super Bowls. Here is the scoreboard of all the indicators, with the best indicators at the bottom. Note that two of the three predictors that favor the Green Bay Packers are weaker ones:


Category..........................Winning Percentage.........Team with Advantage
Opponent Net Passing Yards............545..........................Packers**
Rushing Yards...............................568........... ...............Steelers
Points Scored...............................568.......... .................Packers**
Rushing Yards / Attempt..................591...................... ...Steelers
Opponent Rushing Yards/Attempt......591.........................Steelers
Fewer Net Passing Yards..................614........................ .Steelers
Turnover Differential........................614........... ............. Steelers
Opponent Rushing Yards..................636........................ ..Steelers
Point Differential............................648....... ....................Packers**
Regular Season Record....................648..................... ......Steelers
Opponent Total Yards / Game...........659..........................Steelers
Points Allowed...............................670......... ..................Steelers

There are five defensive indicators, four offensive ones, and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones.

STATS' Jon Dewan

[Lukester]

"the system goes with the underdog. I like that. The system has a strong track record going against the line."

I'm slowly thinking PITT to cover as well...but they can still lose by a pt or two--that's where Vegas seems to know what will happen more than me...and that's where they always get me in the big games--right in the middle of it.

[Sweetleaf22]

im surprised Luke, thought you would lean towards the fav....well good luck with your bet....

[Cali Roots]

A few of those categories that favor Pitt, gb was right next to them in the NFL such as total points against and turnover margin. Not as black and white to give the entire edge to Pitt, but systems typically are and need to be black and white so we will see.

[Lukester]

Originally Posted by Sweetleaf22

im surprised Luke, thought you would lean towards the fav....well good luck with your bet....

If I play the pointspread it would be on the dog. Put another way--the winner of the Big Game don't cover the points, and that goes for the NFL or CFL that I've lost over the years. The enjoyment of the game/party always makes it worthwhile losing a bit.

But,

some Props are worth the regular season statistics average. I can find edges there and end up on the plus-side. Will start on that tonight after my guitar lesson.

[Cali Roots]

21 of the past 27 superbowls now!