Go Back   Sports Handicapping Forum > Sports Picks > NFL Football

NFL Football NFL Handicapping - Post your NFL picks, talk NFL betting, anything NFL.

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-25-2010, 11:41 PM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
super bowl systems

guess it is hank stram similar info plus other system
"Jan 21 2009
Football Betting - Super Bowl Betting System
Many people have at least heard of the Super Bowl Betting System and its ability to pick the winner of the game. It has been around for a number of years, or at least some variation of it, and there are those who will swear by it, including at least one sports service who charges for the selection.

The system started off going 32-3-2 against the point spread, but hasn't fared as well in the past couple of years and is now (I believe) 33-8-2 versus the point spread.

The person most often credited with developing the system was former NFL coach Hank Stram.

Super Bowl Betting System
Note: Stats used are for regular season games only.

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years.
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history.
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes.
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs.
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes.
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry.
7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread.
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards.
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt.
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points.
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns.
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks.
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts.
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush.
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.

That's all there is to it. Naturally, the system tends to pick the favorite, as it did with New England, which was a loss, in the 2008 Super Bowl.

For the 2009 Super Bowl, the system selection is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
One More Super Bowl System
One more Super Bowl system, and one that is much easier to use, has a record of 26-15-2 since the inception of the big game and just involves three steps:

1. Go against any team that did not cover the point spread in their championship game.
2. If both teams covered the spread in the championship games, bet on the team with the highest number of straight up wins entering the Super Bowl.
3. If both teams have the same number of wins, bet on the underdog.

Last year, the system correctly picked the Giants to cover the point spread, as New England did not cover the number in its AFC Championship Game victory over San Diego.

This year the system also picks the Pittsburgh Steelers on the basis of No. 2, as Pittsburgh won 12 games compared to nine for the Cardinals.

There you have two Super Bowl systems that have been around for a number of years and have withstood the test of time.

But when it comes to sports gambling, it's always important to remember what has happened in the past does not always translate into what happens in the future. "



THIS IS A POST FROM LAST YEAR
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-25-2010, 11:44 PM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
I tried to figure out the first system. Got everyone except #7 45-28.5 adv IND maybe someone can double check

second system is also on IND since nor didn't cover vs minny.

both these systems lost last year
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-26-2010, 12:08 AM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
# 1 Seeds vs. # 1 Seeds.

When two #1 seeds meet in the Super Bowl the team with the better st. up record is 5–1 ATS. If they had identical st. up records, the favorite’s 2–0 ATS and noted in blue. In 1983 (WASH noted in red,) was the team with the better st. up record, and they lost st. up and ATS.

1976, (13–1) RAI –4˝ N vs. MIN (11–2–1) RAI 32–14 & OV 38.

1977, (12–2 blue) DAL –5˝ N vs. DEN (12–2 blue) DAL 27–10 & UN 39.

1981, (13–3) 49ers +1 N vs. CIN (12–4) 49ers 26–21 & UN 48.

1983, (12–4) RAI +4 N vs. WASH (RED) (14–2) RAI 33–09 & UN 48.

1984, (15–1) 49ers –3 N vs. MIA (14–2) 49ers 38–16 & OV 53˝.

1989, (14–2) 49ers –12 N vs. DEN 11–5) 49ers 55–10 & OV 48.

1991, (14–2) WASH –7 N vs. BUF (13–3) WASH 37–24 & OV 49.

1993, (12–4 blue) DAL –10˝ N vs. BUF (12–4 blue) DAL 30–13 & UN 50˝.

2009, (14–2) IND –5˝ N vs. NO (13–3) O/U 55˝, result pending.

Playing a two team 6 point teaser and teasing the favorite to the over resulted in 6–2 ATS result.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-26-2010, 12:09 AM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
When the posted total is 50 or more points since 1994 when parity, free agency and salary caps came into existence, 5 out of 6 Super Bowl games have stayed under the total.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-26-2010, 04:33 AM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 37
Rewards: 45
Interesting information
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-28-2010, 08:58 AM
Doggy style
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Portland Oregon
Posts: 889
Rewards: 334
Colts & over in a teaser looks solid to me.... BOL Raider brother !!!
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 01-28-2010, 05:33 PM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
Quote:
Originally Posted by gdog View Post
Colts & over in a teaser looks solid to me.... BOL Raider brother !!!
feeling the colts too gdog!
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 01-30-2010, 11:50 AM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
from last year posted by da fanatic
Here is another one that has picked the SU winner 14 of the last 18 years. 12 categories and the team who leads in the most is your winner. The # in ( ) is the % of time the team who lead that category won the game.

More rushing yds (54%)
More rushing yds per attempt (56%)
Fewer opponent net pass yds (56%)
Fewer opponent yards per rush (59%)
Fewer net passing yards (59%)
Points scored (59%)
Fewer opponent rushing yards (61%)
Better turnover differential (61%)
Point differential (65%)
Better regular season record (67%)
Fewer opponent total yards (68%)
Fewer points allowed (69%)

I come up Pitt having 10 out of the 12 categories. The guy who came up with this system should be on local radio here later. If he has something different than what I have I will post it. All the categories that are 60% or higher are Pitt.

I was slightly wrong. The Steelers have 11 of the 12 in their favor. This guy has gone back and applied this system to every SB played. Anytime that a team had 11 or 12 in their favor they are 5-0 SU with an average margin of victory of 21 points. The only team to have all 12 was the 72 Dolphins. The last time a team had 11 was the Ravens who blew out the Giants in the early 00's.

Teams with 10 in their favor are 3-1 SU
Teams with 9 in their favor are 8-2 SU
Teams with 8 in their favor are 5-1 SU

System correctly picked Pitt to win SU even though they didn't cover

have not gone through it to see who its picking this year yet
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 01-30-2010, 12:17 PM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaguilar View Post
from last year posted by da fanatic
Here is another one that has picked the SU winner 14 of the last 18 years. 12 categories and the team who leads in the most is your winner. The # in ( ) is the % of time the team who lead that category won the game.

More rushing yds (54%) NOR
More rushing yds per attempt (56%) NOR
Fewer opponent net pass yds (56%) IND
Fewer opponent yards per rush (59%) IND
Fewer net passing yards (59%) ??? NOR
Points scored (59%) NOR
Fewer opponent rushing yards (61%) NOR
Better turnover differential (61%) NOR
Point differential (65%)??? NOR
Better regular season record (67%) IND
Fewer opponent total yards (68%) IND
Fewer points allowed (69%) IND

I come up Pitt having 10 out of the 12 categories. The guy who came up with this system should be on local radio here later. If he has something different than what I have I will post it. All the categories that are 60% or higher are Pitt.

I was slightly wrong. The Steelers have 11 of the 12 in their favor. This guy has gone back and applied this system to every SB played. Anytime that a team had 11 or 12 in their favor they are 5-0 SU with an average margin of victory of 21 points. The only team to have all 12 was the 72 Dolphins. The last time a team had 11 was the Ravens who blew out the Giants in the early 00's.

Teams with 10 in their favor are 3-1 SU
Teams with 9 in their favor are 8-2 SU
Teams with 8 in their favor are 5-1 SU

System correctly picked Pitt to win SU even though they didn't cover

have not gone through it to see who its picking this year yet
based it on reg season only. was sure about the 2 with ??? someone can double check.
looks like 7-5 NOR
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 01-30-2010, 12:24 PM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaguilar View Post
guess it is hank stram similar info plus other system
"Jan 21 2009
Football Betting - Super Bowl Betting System
Many people have at least heard of the Super Bowl Betting System and its ability to pick the winner of the game. It has been around for a number of years, or at least some variation of it, and there are those who will swear by it, including at least one sports service who charges for the selection.

The system started off going 32-3-2 against the point spread, but hasn't fared as well in the past couple of years and is now (I believe) 33-8-2 versus the point spread.

The person most often credited with developing the system was former NFL coach Hank Stram.

Super Bowl Betting System
Note: Stats used are for regular season games only.

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years. IND
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history. IND
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes. NOR
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs. IND
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes. NOR
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry. IND
7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.???IND
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread. IND
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards. IND
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt. NOR
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points. IND
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns. IND
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks. NOR
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts. NOR
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year. NOR
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush. NOR
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage. NOR

That's all there is to it. Naturally, the system tends to pick the favorite, as it did with New England, which was a loss, in the 2008 Super Bowl.

For the 2009 Super Bowl, the system selection is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
One More Super Bowl System
One more Super Bowl system, and one that is much easier to use, has a record of 26-15-2 since the inception of the big game and just involves three steps:

1. Go against any team that did not cover the point spread in their championship game.
2. If both teams covered the spread in the championship games, bet on the team with the highest number of straight up wins entering the Super Bowl.
3. If both teams have the same number of wins, bet on the underdog.

Last year, the system correctly picked the Giants to cover the point spread, as New England did not cover the number in its AFC Championship Game victory over San Diego.

This year the system also picks the Pittsburgh Steelers on the basis of No. 2, as Pittsburgh won 12 games compared to nine for the Cardinals.

There you have two Super Bowl systems that have been around for a number of years and have withstood the test of time.

But when it comes to sports gambling, it's always important to remember what has happened in the past does not always translate into what happens in the future. "



THIS IS A POST FROM LAST YEAR
wasn't sure about #7. if someone can double check.

Came up with IND 49 to 28.5
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 01-30-2010, 12:27 PM
anti-public picks
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: california
Posts: 1,966
Rewards: 730
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaguilar View Post
One More Super Bowl System
One more Super Bowl system, and one that is much easier to use, has a record of 26-15-2 since the inception of the big game and just involves three steps:

1. Go against any team that did not cover the point spread in their championship game. NOR
2. If both teams covered the spread in the championship games, bet on the team with the highest number of straight up wins entering the Super Bowl.
3. If both teams have the same number of wins, bet on the underdog.

Last year, the system correctly picked the Giants to cover the point spread, as New England did not cover the number in its AFC Championship Game victory over San Diego.

This year the system also picks the Pittsburgh Steelers on the basis of No. 2, as Pittsburgh won 12 games compared to nine for the Cardinals.

There you have two Super Bowl systems that have been around for a number of years and have withstood the test of time.

But when it comes to sports gambling, it's always important to remember what has happened in the past does not always translate into what happens in the future. "



THIS IS A POST FROM LAST YEAR
this system is picking IND
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:54 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2012, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.