Superbowl Stats And Trends : ...

[Kramer]

Favorites dominated the Super Bowl between 1985 (Super Bowl XIX) and 1995 (Super Bowl XXIX) with favorites covering eight of the 11 games including several blowouts delivered mainly by the 49ers and Cowboys.

Things have changed in recent years however and there has been a shift towards underdogs in recent years. Since 1996 (Super Bowl XXX), underdogs have gone 6-3-2 in the big game.

With the current spread set at close to two touchdowns another blowout could be in the works but the underdog shift has occurred with the big favorites as well.


Double-digit favorites went 4-0 against the spread from 1986 to 1995 but have not won since, going 0-3-1 in four instances since 1996. The last two double-digit favorites, the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII, both lost outright.


Given the surprise run of the Giants, it is interesting to examine how teams have done in the Super Bowl when they were not expected to be there.


Teams that won outright as underdogs to advance to the Super Bowl have gone 10-6-1 against the spread in the big game since 1981.

In the last four instances, those teams have covered in all four of the Super Bowls (New England in 2002, Carolina in 2003, Tampa Bay in 2004, and Pittsburgh in 2006).


The last three teams that had to win twice in a row as an underdog to advance to the Super Bowl (like the Giants have had to do) are also 3-0 against the spread in the Super Bowl.


Pittsburgh in 2006 also had to win on the road three times to get to the Super Bowl but unlike the Giants, the Steelers were favored in the first playoff game that year at Cincinnati.


Twice in the last 10 years has the Super Bowl been a rematch of a regular season game. In both of those games the team that lost the regular season game ended up getting revenge and winning the Super Bowl.

The Patriots beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI after losing 24-17 in the 2001 regular season at home and the Rams beat the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV after losing at Tennessee 21-24 in the 1999 regular season.


The Patriots defeated the Giants on the road 38-35 in the nationally televised Saturday night game in the final week of the regular season.


That game occurred just over a month prior to the Super Bowl rematch and was one of the most memorable games of the regular season.


Obviously we overanalyze the Super Bowl and try to come with any angle that we can. Unfortunately there are just too few instances to come up with anything truly meaningful. It is fun to dissect the game with an eye towards history, and judging by the recent trends listed above the Giants may have a better shot than most will give a chance.


New England’s quest for perfection is superseded by the AFC’s dominance in the Super Bowl, where they’ve captured eight of the last 10 games. In fact, they’ve also held the upper hand over the NFC throughout this decade, posting a 246-193-1 SU & 233-192-15 record entering this season, including 66-8 SU & 44-28-2 ATS as favorites of seven or more points


This year, however, the NFC manned up and battled its brethren toe-to-toe, going 32-32 SU - including 17-15 SU & 15-15-2 ATS with teams that sported a record of .500 or better.



For all intents and purposes, New England’s season was galvanized when Bill Belichick was called out in the ‘Spygate’ scandal. It served as the impetus they were looking, rallying around the incident and bursting out of the gates with eight wins and covers during the first half of the season, by an average win margin of 25.5 PPG while beating the spread by +117.5 points

Since then though, while still managing to remain undefeated, they enter the Super Bowl on a dismal 2-8 ATS slide. In the process their average win margin dipped to 12.2 PPG and its net-spread fell faster , closing out -40.5 points. Not exactly endearing numbers for a team installed as two touchdown favorites against a ‘dog that refuses to believe it doesn’t belong.

The Giants incredible run to Glendale occurred despite a 0-2 start (losses to Dallas and Green Bay).


Since then they have won an NFL record 10 straight road games, going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread +83.5 points in those games away from the Big Apple.
They also handed Green Bay QB Brett Favre his first-ever home loss in games from December out against an opponent off a win in which the Packers entered with a win percentage of .640 or more (now 17-1 and 16-1-1 ATS).

In addition, they become only the third team in NFL history to make the ‘big game’ by winning three consecutive playoff games on the road. They’ll have two weeks to refuel while dissecting a season-ending 38-35 loss to the Pats, as 13.5 point home dogs, a game in which the Giants lead 28-16 in the second half.


From a coaches perspective it’s hard to refute Bill Belichick’s sterling record, especially in the post-season. 15-3 SU (12-0 as a favorite), but only 9-8-1 ATS. And Over/Under fans should take note that his teams are 7-11 UNDER in the playoffs.


For what it’s worth, Belichick is 13-1 SU in his career in games when the Over/Under total in the game is posted at 49 or higher. He also owns top-notch numbers against NFC opposition as a head coach in the NFL, going 36-15 SU & 30-19-2 ATS against the confederates.


Inside those numbers is a 14-5 SU/ATS mark when his team is off an ATS loss and also a 25-10 SU/ATS record if they scored less than 28 points in their previous game.
His counterpart, Tom Coughlin, answers with a bevy of good numbers, too. Included is a 6-2 ATS mark as a dog of 11-plus points and a nifty 17-11 ATS log in games off a SU dog win (6-1 SUATS the last seven). Coughlin is also a very dangerous 8-7 SU & 9-4-2 ATS in his NFL career in games against undefeated teams!


Sure-shot Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady’s numbers speak for themselves. He’ll enter SBXLII with a career record of 100-25 SU & 76-45-4 ATS (but only 11-11 ATS as a double-digit favorite). Included is a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post-season with three Super Bowl rings to show for his efforts.


Giant QB Manning is just beginning to create his own legacy.
As a starter in the NFL, Eli is 32-27 SU & 35-24 ATS, but 19-9-1 ATS away from home. He’s also a noteworthy 29-12-1 ATS in games after the Giants scored more than 17 points the previous game.
NYG are 3-0 ATS 2008 NFC playoff games..

. NYG are 4-2 ATS L6 vs. NE...
NYG are 8-2 ATS *** games as an underdog...
NYG are 5-0 ATS L5...
NYG are 11-3 ATS L14 games revenging a loss against opponent...
NYG are 13-6 ATS L19 vs. AFC East... NYG are 4-2 to the UNDER L6 vs. NE...
NYG are 4-1 to the UNDER L5 playoff games... NE is 0-2 ATS 2008 AFC playoff games...
NE is 0-5 ATS L5...
NE is 9-13 ATS L22 games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest...
NE is 10-8 ATS L18 vs. NFC East... NE is 5-1 to the UNDER L6...
NE is 16-6 to the UNDER L22 playoff games...
NE is 10-5 to the OVER L15 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.



SUPER BOWL FACTS to ponder:


The last 12 Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 9-3 SU & 4-6-2 ATS
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU & 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points are 0-23 SU & 3-19-1 ATS Since 1980
teams who won a playoff game in overtime are 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS in their next game, including 0-2 SU & ATS if the next game had Roman Numerals attached to it.


We have seen eight quarterback mismatches coming into the big game over the last 28 years and the superior signal caller has come out on top in seven of those.

The lone exception was Doug Williams and Washington in Super Bowl XXII.
If this is any indication, Brady looks to be hoisting the trophy for the 4th time.
This is one instance however that his opposition is playing just as good, if not better.


We have not seen a superior effort for the Patriots in quite some time so they could very well be overdue.
Brady led the Patriots with the highest scoring offense ever but that makes nothing automatic. New England is the 17th team to lead the NFL in scoring and reach the Super Bowl.
The previous 16 teams are 9-7 in the Super Bowl with last two, the ’05 Seahawks and ’01 Rams, losing those games outright.



Spread No-Vig Moneyline

-1 -107/+107
-2 -115/+115
-3 -145/+145
-4 -180/+180
-5 -210/+210
-6 -240/+240
-7 -290/+290
-8 -320/+320
-9 -360/+360
-10 -400/+400

This chart is just a general guideline. To gain more power, generate your own conversion charts for home/away, and high/low totals. In general, home teams do slightly better at any given spread.


Youll also find that as the totals decrease, the moneyline for a given spread increases. So a 7-point favorite in a game with a total of 30 might be -330 (instead of -280 for a typical game with a 42.5 total).



Sometimes youll find a spread and moneyline that really dont coincide and this is often the case in the Super Bowl. In last years game between New England and Philadelphia, the Patriots were 7-point favorites and -230 favorites on the moneyline.

For this match-up, youd normally expect the no-vig moneyline to be about -290. In this case, public betting caused an inaccurate conversion.

The public tends to bet the underdog on the moneyline and the favorite on the spread. These two tendencies combine to force the spread and moneyline out of alignment. Whether this is the result of public betting or a linesman sleeping on the job, alert players can profit as there are many ways to benefit in these situations.

If youre certain one of the lines is off, but not sure which, many professionals play the middle by betting on both the moneyline favorite and the underdog on the spread. In the last two Super Bowls, sharp bettors have profited by simply fading the public. In last years Super Bowl, wise guys middled the game by making the following bets:

$1150 to win $1000 on Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
$1498 to win $652 on New England moneyline

In this case the middle paid off as New England won by 3 points, paying sharp bettors on both the moneyline and the spread. If the Patriots had won by more than 7 (or if the Eagles won), the bets would have had a combined net loss of $498. These bets in combination are giving you 3.3 to 1 odds on the prop Will the Patriots win by 1-7? when the fair odds would be closer to 2.6 to 1. The gap between 3.3:1 and 2.6:1 is the overlay caused by public bettors.






PATRIOTS -12.5 -$500
SHOULD BE - $ 545

GIANTS + 12.5 SHOULD BE + 545 (+400)

***BEST VALUE IS : PATRIOTS - 500 ,
***GIANTS + 12.5


DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
A FUNNY THING HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO THE SUPER BOWL!
I hadn't planned on talking about the Super Bowl until we got closer to game day. But, the early action has been so intense in Las Vegas and Reno that I wanted to provide a quick update.


The exact OPPOSITE of what many expected to happen occurred as soon as the lines went up.
There was some general thought that New England would be about a two-touchdown favorite over the Giants...and that the line would go UP right away to something approaching 16 or 17.
Now, I'm not saying that EVERYBODY thought this was going to happen. But, if you listed to the talk in the sportsbooks, this was the prevailing line of thought.

The game would open around -14.
The Patriots would get bet up right away by early public money and sharps (Vegas professionals) wanted to stake a position on a key number
You could get the Giants at +16 or even +17 if you waited awhile
Most of the public thought this. Many sharps did too.


As is normally the case, the public was thinking about how to get the favorite at an affordable price. The sharps were looking at how to maximize the value of an underdog bet. At least, that's what everyone "said" they were thinking. Once the number went up on the board, here's what happened.


Nobody wanted the Patriots!

The public, who had just watched the NY Giants play very well for the third week in a row (by the way, my only service release in the football that day was the Giants +7.5), decided that 14 points was just too much for a neutral site game. Patriots' fans didn't want to lay that many points. Giants' fans gladly took the number thinking it was a gift.

The sharps, who wanted New York all along, suddenly realized that the line WASN'T going to go up! They had better get +14 while it was available because there was no guarantee they would see it again. So much for waiting for +16 of +17. So much for taking an early position on the Pats. About the ONLY money on New England was from position takers, and they were outnumbered by Giant backers who wanted the two touchdowns.

It was clear that the line was going to come down. The position takers bought out of their plays and swallowed some juice (you can't have a big play on New England -14 and NY Giants +13 because if it lands on one of those numbers you lose big).

There was almost a panic buying effect on the Giants. Get them now before the good numbers are gone!

The line went down to +13, and Giants money STILL kept coming in! Who knows how low the line would go? New York was playing its best football of the year right now. New England has only covered two spreads in the last ten weeks. When they faced each other in the regular season, the Pats only won by three. There were plenty of Nevada sports bettors who were okay at +13.


The line is currently New England -12.


Just when you thought you've seen everything...It's very uncharacteristic for money to be coming in AGAINST a team that's been hyped by the media for weeks, particularly one with a chance to make history. The public rushes to those teams like moths to a lamp. What happened here?


People who have been betting on New England a lot lately are BROKE! The lines have been way too high for a couple of months. Even if they wanted to bet the Pats in the big game, they don't have the money right now. Or, if they have something left, they're tired of losing every week. It's like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown in those old "Peanuts" comics. Patriots' bettors have been frustrated and lying on their backs for two months.

People who have been betting on the Giants lately are RICH!
they won three games outright as underdogs in the playoffs.
Of course, those guys are going to keep betting!

There's a perception in Vegas that "New York money" eventually finds its way to Vegas if you know what I mean. If you don't, I'm not explaining it!
The sharps realized that the early money was on the Giants, and that even MORE money from New York may be coming in during the course of the fortnight.


The sharps knew they didn't want to take +14 if they were going to see +16 later in the week.
But, if the line was only going to be +11 later on, they'd better get down quick at +14 or +13.

All the computer guys in town were showing edges for the Giants just because a computer isn't going to make one playoff caliber team a 14-point favorite on a neutral site over another one.

Once those guys saw what was happening, they acted early too. The public, and the sharps, and the syndicates all wanted the Giants at the same time. Anybody who wanted the Pats was low on funds.


Is the line going to stay at New England -12 the rest of the way?
I wouldn' be surprised to see some late money come in on the Patriots.
The public does like favorites, particularly in the Super Bowl.


Many just won't be able to help themselves. But, the Giants backers are pretty serious, as are the syndicates. They can't justify a number this high on neutral field.

If the public hits the Pats, it may only get back to 13 before the Giants money moves again.
I'm very interested to see what happens.



On the weekend of the big game, I'll go over some of the reasons why the sharps like the Giants, and I'll try to find some props that they're playing.
We'll also have a better sense of where the line is going to settle.
It could turn out that some sharps flip over to New England if we see a continued drop.


You can't ever assume the most recent surprise was the LAST surprise!


The total is currently sitting at 53.5 or 54 in most places after opening at 55. This was kind of a mini-version of the team side story. Pats backers will like the Over because of the offense. Giants backers will like the Under because the defense has played well in the playoffs. There was less money involved, but it was the same story. I think we'll see some movement here between now and the next time we talk football.
That's the Super Bowl news from out here.



SUPERBOWL SYSTEM :
stats from regular season only.




. Award 10 points to a team that has won a Super Bowl
in the last 3 years.
2. 8.0 points to any team whose OPPONENT is playing
in their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
3. 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer
defensive rushes.
4. 7.0 points to the team with the best overall SU win/loss
record including playoffs.
5. 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes.
6. 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush
average per carry.
7. 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick/punt
touch down returns.
8. 4.0 points to the team with the better ATS record.
Note. I’m guessing this is regular season only.
See rule at top.
9. 4.0 points to the team that has the better net penalty
yards.
10. 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass
attempt.
11. 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points.
12. 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing
touch downs.13. 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks.
14. 2.5 points to the team with the fewest pass attempts.
15. 2.0 points to the team that had the best NET punt (total)
for the year.
16. 2.0 points for the team with the best average per
offensive rush.
17. 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.



Totals are: NE 42.5 to NY 27.5


TOTALS :

LAST 3 WENT UNDER

LAST 10 SUPERBOWLS SAW 5 UNDERS , 5 OVERS ...

The Super Bowl XLII Over/Under is 54 at most sports books, 53½ at others. Should the game close at 54, it would be the highest total in Super Bowl history. A half-point lower, and it would tie the record set in Super Bowl XXIX (49ers-Chargers)...
That game went over the total ...

Here’s the "stat of the year" to help everyone out who
bets on either side :

The team that is winning at halftime is 32-6-3 ATS alltime.
ONLY 6 TIMES HAS THE TEAM LOSING AT HALF TIME
COVERED THE SPREAD !



Therefore ,if your team is winning at halftime sit back and relax.
If the team you bet on is losing at halftime , you may want
to consider wagering the opposite on the 2nd half to end
the year on a positive note .

teams that turn the ball over more times than their opponent in the game have won the Super Bowl only three times


the last 13 favorites to score 30 or less points are 1-12-1 ATS…

• teams who score 27 or more points are 22-1 SU & 20-2-1 ATS…

• teams who score less than 20 points are 0-22 SU & 3-18-1 ATS…

• teams who out rush their opponent are 33-7 SU…

• the team with the higher scoring offense on the season is 12-3 SU in the
last 15 games
• the team on the longer win streak entering the game is 22-15 SU…
(NEW ENGLAND)
• the team with the higher win percentage is 27-10 SU, including 20-0 SU if they manage to score 24 or more points…
(NEW ENGLAND)

[Walter Abrams]

thanks for all of your posts this season i enjoy reading them