superbowl systems and trends

[jaguilar]

feel free to add. for your information. None of these systems are guaranteed. not sure how accurate systems are but they are from prior posts.

Favorites are 33-11 SU all time in superbowls.

[jaguilar]

12 categories and the team who leads in the most is your winner. The # in ( ) is the % of time the team who lead that category won the game. According to the prior post this system is 16-4 STRAIGHT UP L 20 superbowls.

1. More rushing yds (54%)
2. More rushing yds per attempt (56%)
3. Fewer opponent net pass yds (56%)
4. Fewer opponent yards per rush (59%)
5. Fewer net passing yards (59%)
6. Points scored (59%)
7. Fewer opponent rushing yards (61%)
8. Better turnover differential (61%)
9. Point differential (65%)
10. Better regular season record (67%)
11. Fewer opponent total yards (68%)
12. Fewer points allowed (69%)

pit leads 9 categories except #3, 6, 9 so systems says pit win su

went back and check last 4 superbowls, predicted nor over ind, pit over ari, ne over nyg, chi over ind straight up.

[jaguilar]

The person most often credited with developing the system was former NFL coach Hank Stram.

Super Bowl Betting System
Note: Stats used are for regular season games only.

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years.
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history.
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes.
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs.
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes.
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry.
7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread.
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards.
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt.
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points.
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns.
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks.
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts.
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush.
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.

That's all there is to it. Naturally, the system tends to pick the favorite, as it did with New England, which was a loss, in the 2008 Super Bowl.

For the 2009 Super Bowl, the system selection is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

2010 system predicted INDY according to my calculations.

This year it looks like pit

The system started off going 32-3-2 against the point spread, but hasn't fared as well in the past couple of years and is now (I believe) 33-10-2 versus the point spread.

[jaguilar]

5 out of the L 6 superbowls have stayed under the total

[Sweetleaf22]

The underdog has not only won two of the last three Super Bowls outright, but it has covered seven of the last nine.

The AFC representative is 7-3 straight-up since Baltimore defeated the New York Giants.

5 of the last 10 Super Bowl champs have led the league in points allowed. Pitt was No. 1.

The Packers actually ranked second in the NFL allowing 240 (15 ppg) but the last two times the NFC leader reached the Super Bowl it lost to its AFC counterpart - Chicago four years ago to Indianapolis and Philadelphia six seasons back to New England.

Incidentally, that Patriots-Eagles matchup was the last time the AFC and NFC defensive scoring leaders met in the title game, and New England prevailed 24-21.

Packers are 8-13 away from Lambeau Field in their last 21 games.

Steelers are 17-8 away from Heinz Field in thier last 25 games.

[Lukester]

PIT vs GB: O/U Line opened at 45.5...O/U scores thru the decades using that Line as reference:

In the '60s: 1/2

In the '70s: 2/8

In the '80s: 7/3

In the '90s: 7/3

In the '00s: 5/5

In the '10s: 1/0

----------------

O/U 45.5: 23/21

[Sweetleaf22]

Originally Posted by Lukester

PIT vs GB: O/U Line opened at 45.5...O/U scores thru the decades using that Line as reference:

In the '60s: 1/2

In the '70s: 2/8

In the '80s: 7/3

In the '90s: 7/3

In the '00s: 5/5

In the '10s: 1/0

----------------

O/U 45.5: 23/21

The under has been on fire of late hitting five out of the last six years. The lone over in that span came when Pittsburgh and Arizona combined for 50 points, defeating the number that stood at 46.5.

[jaguilar]

combined some systems and came up with this superbowl STRAIGHT UP system which is 9-1 SU since 2000 superbowl(thats as far as i checked for). Assigned certain number of points for the team that led in that category during regular season and whoever has the most points wins straight up.
here is system
1. Fewer net offensive pass yards 10points
2. Fewer defensive passing td's allowed 9points
3. Fewer offensive passing td's scored 8points
4. Worse regular season record 7points
5. Better turnover differential 6points
6. Fewer opponent rushing yards allowed 6points
7. More offensive rushing yards per carry 5points
8. Fewer opponent passing yards allowed 5points
9. Fewer opponent rushing yards per cary 5points
10.Fewer opponent points allowed 5points
11.Better scoring point differential 4points
12.Fewer opponent total yards allowed 4points
13.More offensive rushing yards 3points
14.Fewer opponent pass yards per play 3points
15.More points scored 2points
16.More offensive pass yards per play 2points
17.More defensive sacks 2points

2000 75-4 Bal over nyg (won)
2001 45-41 Ne over stl (won)
2002 54-30 Tb over oak (won)
2003 56-30 Ne over car (won)
2004 55-24 Ne over phi (won)
2005 64-22 Pit over sea (won)
2006 56-28 Chi over ind (lost)
2007 46-40 Nyg over ne (won)
2008 75-11 Pit over ari (won)
2009 56-22 Nor over ind (won)
2010 66-18 Pit over gb ? this sucks cause i was liking gb

[Lukester]

Thanx Jag. It's alot of work I know. It's Props week for me no matter.

[Lukester]

Reg season on PrimeTime (Thurs, Sun, Mon):
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PITT:
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SU as FAV: 2-2
SU as DOG: 1-0
ATS as FAV: 2-2
ATS as DOG: 1-0
O/U: 2/3


GBay:
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SU as FAV: 2-1
SU as DOG: 0-1
ATS as FAV: 2-1
ATS as DOG 1-0
O/U: 3/1