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Favorites dominated the Super Bowl between 1985 (Super Bowl XIX) and 1995 (Super Bowl XXIX) with favorites covering eight of the 11 games including several blowouts delivered mainly by the 49ers and Cowboys.
Things have changed in recent years however and there has been a shift towards underdogs in recent years. Since 1996 (Super Bowl XXX), underdogs have gone 6-3-2 in the big game. With the current spread set at close to two touchdowns another blowout could be in the works but the underdog shift has occurred with the big favorites as well. Double-digit favorites went 4-0 against the spread from 1986 to 1995 but have not won since, going 0-3-1 in four instances since 1996. The last two double-digit favorites, the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII, both lost outright. Given the surprise run of the Giants, it is interesting to examine how teams have done in the Super Bowl when they were not expected to be there. Teams that won outright as underdogs to advance to the Super Bowl have gone 10-6-1 against the spread in the big game since 1981. In the last four instances, those teams have covered in all four of the Super Bowls (New England in 2002, Carolina in 2003, Tampa Bay in 2004, and Pittsburgh in 2006). The last three teams that had to win twice in a row as an underdog to advance to the Super Bowl (like the Giants have had to do) are also 3-0 against the spread in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh in 2006 also had to win on the road three times to get to the Super Bowl but unlike the Giants, the Steelers were favored in the first playoff game that year at Cincinnati. Twice in the last 10 years has the Super Bowl been a rematch of a regular season game. In both of those games the team that lost the regular season game ended up getting revenge and winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI after losing 24-17 in the 2001 regular season at home and the Rams beat the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV after losing at Tennessee 21-24 in the 1999 regular season. The Patriots defeated the Giants on the road 38-35 in the nationally televised Saturday night game in the final week of the regular season. That game occurred just over a month prior to the Super Bowl rematch and was one of the most memorable games of the regular season. Obviously we overanalyze the Super Bowl and try to come with any angle that we can. Unfortunately there are just too few instances to come up with anything truly meaningful. It is fun to dissect the game with an eye towards history, and judging by the recent trends listed above the Giants may have a better shot than most will give a chance. New England’s quest for perfection is superseded by the AFC’s dominance in the Super Bowl, where they’ve captured eight of the last 10 games. In fact, they’ve also held the upper hand over the NFC throughout this decade, posting a 246-193-1 SU & 233-192-15 record entering this season, including 66-8 SU & 44-28-2 ATS as favorites of seven or more points This year, however, the NFC manned up and battled its brethren toe-to-toe, going 32-32 SU - including 17-15 SU & 15-15-2 ATS with teams that sported a record of .500 or better. For all intents and purposes, New England’s season was galvanized when Bill Belichick was called out in the ‘Spygate’ scandal. It served as the impetus they were looking, rallying around the incident and bursting out of the gates with eight wins and covers during the first half of the season, by an average win margin of 25.5 PPG while beating the spread by +117.5 points Since then though, while still managing to remain undefeated, they enter the Super Bowl on a dismal 2-8 ATS slide. In the process their average win margin dipped to 12.2 PPG and its net-spread fell faster , closing out -40.5 points. Not exactly endearing numbers for a team installed as two touchdown favorites against a ‘dog that refuses to believe it doesn’t belong. The Giants incredible run to Glendale occurred despite a 0-2 start (losses to Dallas and Green Bay). Since then they have won an NFL record 10 straight road games, going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread +83.5 points in those games away from the Big Apple. They also handed Green Bay QB Brett Favre his first-ever home loss in games from December out against an opponent off a win in which the Packers entered with a win percentage of .640 or more (now 17-1 and 16-1-1 ATS). In addition, they become only the third team in NFL history to make the ‘big game’ by winning three consecutive playoff games on the road. They’ll have two weeks to refuel while dissecting a season-ending 38-35 loss to the Pats, as 13.5 point home dogs, a game in which the Giants lead 28-16 in the second half. From a coaches perspective it’s hard to refute Bill Belichick’s sterling record, especially in the post-season. 15-3 SU (12-0 as a favorite), but only 9-8-1 ATS. And Over/Under fans should take note that his teams are 7-11 UNDER in the playoffs. For what it’s worth, Belichick is 13-1 SU in his career in games when the Over/Under total in the game is posted at 49 or higher. He also owns top-notch numbers against NFC opposition as a head coach in the NFL, going 36-15 SU & 30-19-2 ATS against the confederates. Inside those numbers is a 14-5 SU/ATS mark when his team is off an ATS loss and also a 25-10 SU/ATS record if they scored less than 28 points in their previous game. His counterpart, Tom Coughlin, answers with a bevy of good numbers, too. Included is a 6-2 ATS mark as a dog of 11-plus points and a nifty 17-11 ATS log in games off a SU dog win (6-1 SUATS the last seven). Coughlin is also a very dangerous 8-7 SU & 9-4-2 ATS in his NFL career in games against undefeated teams! Sure-shot Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady’s numbers speak for themselves. He’ll enter SBXLII with a career record of 100-25 SU & 76-45-4 ATS (but only 11-11 ATS as a double-digit favorite). Included is a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post-season with three Super Bowl rings to show for his efforts. Giant QB Manning is just beginning to create his own legacy. As a starter in the NFL, Eli is 32-27 SU & 35-24 ATS, but 19-9-1 ATS away from home. He’s also a noteworthy 29-12-1 ATS in games after the Giants scored more than 17 points the previous game. NYG are 3-0 ATS 2008 NFC playoff games.. . NYG are 4-2 ATS L6 vs. NE... NYG are 8-2 ATS *** games as an underdog... NYG are 5-0 ATS L5... NYG are 11-3 ATS L14 games revenging a loss against opponent... NYG are 13-6 ATS L19 vs. AFC East... NYG are 4-2 to the UNDER L6 vs. NE... NYG are 4-1 to the UNDER L5 playoff games... NE is 0-2 ATS 2008 AFC playoff games... NE is 0-5 ATS L5... NE is 9-13 ATS L22 games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest... NE is 10-8 ATS L18 vs. NFC East... NE is 5-1 to the UNDER L6... NE is 16-6 to the UNDER L22 playoff games... NE is 10-5 to the OVER L15 games as a favorite of 10 or more points. SUPER BOWL FACTS to ponder: The last 12 Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 9-3 SU & 4-6-2 ATS The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU & 21-2-1 ATS Teams who score less than 20 points are 0-23 SU & 3-19-1 ATS Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in overtime are 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS in their next game, including 0-2 SU & ATS if the next game had Roman Numerals attached to it. We have seen eight quarterback mismatches coming into the big game over the last 28 years and the superior signal caller has come out on top in seven of those. The lone exception was Doug Williams and Washington in Super Bowl XXII. If this is any indication, Brady looks to be hoisting the trophy for the 4th time. This is one instance however that his opposition is playing just as good, if not better. We have not seen a superior effort for the Patriots in quite some time so they could very well be overdue. Brady led the Patriots with the highest scoring offense ever but that makes nothing automatic. New England is the 17th team to lead the NFL in scoring and reach the Super Bowl. The previous 16 teams are 9-7 in the Super Bowl with last two, the ’05 Seahawks and ’01 Rams, losing those games outright. Spread No-Vig Moneyline -1 -107/+107 -2 -115/+115 -3 -145/+145 -4 -180/+180 -5 -210/+210 -6 -240/+240 -7 -290/+290 -8 -320/+320 -9 -360/+360 -10 -400/+400 This chart is just a general guideline. To gain more power, generate your own conversion charts for home/away, and high/low totals. In general, home teams do slightly better at any given spread. Youll also find that as the totals decrease, the moneyline for a given spread increases. So a 7-point favorite in a game with a total of 30 might be -330 (instead of -280 for a typical game with a 42.5 total). Sometimes youll find a spread and moneyline that really dont coincide and this is often the case in the Super Bowl. In last years game between New England and Philadelphia, the Patriots were 7-point favorites and -230 favorites on the moneyline. For this match-up, youd normally expect the no-vig moneyline to be about -290. In this case, public betting caused an inaccurate conversion. The public tends to bet the underdog on the moneyline and the favorite on the spread. These two tendencies combine to force the spread and moneyline out of alignment. Whether this is the result of public betting or a linesman sleeping on the job, alert players can profit as there are many ways to benefit in these situations. If youre certain one of the lines is off, but not sure which, many professionals play the middle by betting on both the moneyline favorite and the underdog on the spread. In the last two Super Bowls, sharp bettors have profited by simply fading the public. In last years Super Bowl, wise guys middled the game by making the following bets: $1150 to win $1000 on Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 $1498 to win $652 on New England moneyline In this case the middle paid off as New England won by 3 points, paying sharp bettors on both the moneyline and the spread. If the Patriots had won by more than 7 (or if the Eagles won), the bets would have had a combined net loss of $498. These bets in combination are giving you 3.3 to 1 odds on the prop Will the Patriots win by 1-7? when the fair odds would be closer to 2.6 to 1. The gap between 3.3:1 and 2.6:1 is the overlay caused by public bettors. PATRIOTS -12.5 -$500 SHOULD BE - $ 545 GIANTS + 12.5 SHOULD BE + 545 (+400) ***BEST VALUE IS : PATRIOTS - 500 , ***GIANTS + 12.5 The team that is winning at halftime is 32-6-3 ATS alltime. ONLY 6 TIMES HAS THE TEAM LOSING AT HALF TIME COVERED THE SPREAD ! Therefore ,if your team is winning at halftime sit back and relax. If the team you bet on is losing at halftime , you may want to consider wagering the opposite on the 2nd half to end the year on a positive note . teams that turn the ball over more times than their opponent in the game have won the Super Bowl only three times the last 13 favorites to score 30 or less points are 1-12-1 ATS… • teams who score 27 or more points are 22-1 SU & 20-2-1 ATS… • teams who score less than 20 points are 0-22 SU & 3-18-1 ATS… • teams who out rush their opponent are 33-7 SU… • the team with the higher scoring offense on the season is 12-3 SU in the last 15 games • the team on the longer win streak entering the game is 22-15 SU… (NEW ENGLAND) • the team with the higher win percentage is 27-10 SU, including 20-0 SU if they manage to score 24 or more points… (NEW ENGLAND) The New England Patriots stand 60 minutes from the first 19-0 season in NFL history, with the New York Giants, their Super Bowl XLII counterpart, seeking to ruin that run at perfection with a monumental upset on Sunday. New York took New England to the wire in that contest, building a double-digit second-half lead before falling, 38-35. The result made the Patriots the first team to finish 16-0 since the NFL schedule was expanded in 1978, and Bill Belichick's squad also became the first to achieve perfection in a regular campaign since the 1972 Miami Dolphins went 14-0 en route to a Super Bowl title. The '72 Dolphins remain the only team in league annals to finish unbeaten and untied through the postseason. Sunday will mark the second time two teams that squared off in the last game of the regular season will engage in a Super Bowl rematch. The Cowboys' 27-10 win over the Broncos in Super Bowl XII came less than a month after Dallas had downed Denver, 14-6, on the final week of the 1977 regular season. In addition to achieving perfection, the Patriots can also enhance one of the NFL's foremost dynasties with a victory. After winning Super Bowls following the 2001, 2003, and 2004 season, the Pats can become just the second team in NFL history to win four titles in a seven- year span. The Pittsburgh Steelers (1974, 1975, 1978, 1979), who won four world championships in six years, are the only other club to pull off the feat. The Steelers and 49ers (1981, 1984, 1988, 1989) are currently the only franchises to win four Super Bowl titles in a single decade, another exclusive club New England could join with a victory The Patriots (3-2 in Super Bowls) will make their sixth Super Sunday appearance, a mark that trails only that of Dallas (8), and is tied with Pittsburgh (6) and Denver (6) for the most all-time. While the game is viewed by some as being the final and inevitable step toward New England's coronation, a red-hot Giants team figures to have a little something to say about that. Tom Coughlin's squad can become just the second team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy following four straight playoff wins away from their home facility, joining the 2005 Steelers. Along the way the Patriots beat the Division winners Dallas , Colts , Chargers (twice) and Steelers Experience is at the helm with the Patriots as this is their fourth trip in 7 years. The Belichich Brady duo is 14-2 in post season play. At the same time, the Giants (10-6 in the regular season) are the first six- loss team to reach a Super Bowl since the 1988 San Francisco 49ers defeated the Cincinnati Bengals after finishing 10-6 that year. New York, which went 3-5 at home this season, is the first of 84 Super Bowl participants to reach the game's ultimate stage after finishing with a losing mark on its home field. The G-Men are 2-1 in Super Bowls, beating the Broncos (39-20) and Bills (20-19) following the 1986 and 1990 seasons, respectively, and falling to the Ravens (34-7) to close out the 2000 campaign. why isn't New England covering? They’ve been 13.5 or more in nine consecutive games with just two covers , and one in past eight ... three strong possibilities, with the latter being the most likely. First, the Patriots may have gotten complacent. Clobbering the opposition on a weekly basis, perhaps they got bored. Thus, they coasted against the Eagles, Ravens, Jets, Dolphins and Giants, doing the bare minimum to win. With a week off, they had trouble flicking the On switch against two quality opponents in the playoffs. Have you ever played a board game like checkers with someone or cards and continually beat them and after a while get bored? Soon you hope they play you close just to see what its like to almost lose? Second, the cold weather may have affected New England's aerial attack. Notice how the Patriots were more potent in September and October. Because they throw the ball a ton, they could be more suited for warmer climates. And finally, there's a possibility that the Patriots don't have the defense. While they've surrendered just 18.6 points per game, their pass defense allowed 336 yards to Adam Joshua Feeley; 210 to Kyle Boller; 237 to Eli Manning; 270 to David Garrard; and 207 to a hobbled Philip Rivers. Not exactly undefeated material. But yet they remain undefeated. Quarterbacks : One guy's headed to the Hall of Fame, and the other guy's brother is headed to the Hall of Fame. Maybe that's an unfair analysis, but there's no overestimating the fact that Brady (4806 passing yards, 50 TD, 8 INT) will be playing on the Super Bowl stage for the fourth time, and won't be facing as many early jitters as the occasionally skittish Eli Manning (3336 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT). Brady's ankle remains something of a concern, but don't count on it impacting the Pro Bowler's play to any great degree. However : Manning has thrown four touchdowns, completed 62.4 percent of his passes and won on the road an NFL record 10 straight times. More importantly, he has no picks or fumbles in the postseason If Manning can compete with zero picks or fumbles the Giants can keep it close... But as of now we must give the edge to Brady Advantage: Patriots Running Backs New England's Laurence Maroney (835 rushing yards, 6 TD) has been outstanding over the past month-plus, rushing for 550 and seven touchdowns over his last five games. Third-down back Kevin Faulk (265 rushing yards, 47 receptions, 1 TD), meanwhile, basically carried the Patriots' passing game against San Diego in the AFC Championship and will be appearing in his fourth Super Bowl. At the same time, the Giants' duo of Brandon Jacobs (1009 rushing yards, 23 receptions, 6 TD) and rookie Ahmad Bradshaw (190 rushing yards, 1 TD) is arguably more dangerous, since Jacobs is difficult to bring down and Bradshaw has been a terrific change-of-pace back. Call it a draw, due to New England's experience and greater versatility versus the Giants' home run ability. Fans of either team can argue each case . Advantage: Push Wide Receivers/Tight Ends No contest here (no matter what Plaxico Burress says), as Randy Moss (98 receptions, 23 TD) and Wes Welker (112 receptions, 8 TD) come off two of the great statistical seasons by receivers in NFL history, and Donte' Stallworth (46 receptions, 3 TD) and Jabar Gaffney (36 receptions, 5 TD) had their moments as well. And Moss has been quiet in the playoffs ... The Giants' primary group - Burress (70 receptions, 12 TD), Amani Toomer (59 receptions, 3 TD), and rookie Steve Smith (8 receptions) - is scary in its own way but doesn't hold a candle to New England's corps. At tight end, Benjamin Watson (36 receptions, 6 TD) is a better red-zone presence than Giants rookie Kevin Boss (9 receptions, 2 TD), who has nonetheless done a fine job of subbing for the injured Jeremy Shockey. Advantage: Patriots Offensive Line There isn't an area on the Patriots roster that gets less credit than this one, but left tackle Matt Light, left guard Logan Mankins, and center Dan Koppen are three of the best in the business. New England's group is versatile enough to both clear frequent holes for Maroney and protect Brady. The Giants have some strength in their unit as well, with center Shaun O'Hara and guard Chris Snee at the front of that line, but right tackle Kareem McKenzie has been an occasional liability and left tackle David Diehl has not fully shed the reputation that he's a natural guard playing out of position. Advantage: Patriots Defensive Line The Giants had the best pass rush in the league thanks to ends Michael Strahan (50 tackles, 9 sacks), Osi Umenyiora (53 tackles, 13 sacks), and Justin Tuck (58 tackles, 10 sacks), though it should be noted that no member of that trio had a sack against the Patriots in Week 17. New York's interior starters, Barry Cofield (41 tackles, 1 sack) and Fred Robbins (43 tackles, 5.5 sacks), have been steady but unspectacular. It's difficult to compare New England's three-man front to New York's four-man group, but the Patriots have not always been dominant up front this year and thus can't receive the check-mark. End Richard Seymour (30 tackles, 1.5 sacks) has had his weakest year as a pro amid injury problems, and Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork (70 tackles, 2 sacks) has made a number of his boldest headlines for dirty play during a season in which the Patriots have ranked near the bottom of the league by allowing 4.4 yards per rush. Advantage: Giants Linebackers Again, no contest. The Patriots' four-man group of current or former Pro Bowlers includes Mike Vrabel (77 tackles, 12.5 sacks) and Adalius Thomas (82 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 INT) on the outside, Tedy Bruschi (99 tackles, 2 sacks) and Junior Seau (76 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT) on the inside. The quartet has combined for seven Super Bowl appearances, and only Seau lacks a ring. The only real star on the Giants' LB group is middle man Antonio Pierce (116 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT). Outside backers Kawika Mitchell (87 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Reggie Torbor (29 tackles, 1 sack) are average players. Advantage: Patriots Secondary New England is as deep as its ever been in this area, with Asante Samuel (44 tackles, 6 INT), Ellis Hobbs (63 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), and Randall Gay (33 tackles, 3 INT) all proven corners and safeties Rodney Harrison (67 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack), James Sanders (73 tackles, 2 INT), and Eugene Wilson (32 tackles, 1 INT) all capable of providing a big play in support. The only concern with the Patriots may be Harrison is only player over 6 feet while Burress is 6’3" and Toomer is 6'6". The Giants' group has also been good, especially during the playoffs, but is also capable of sinking the team with a blown coverage or bone-headed penalty. Strong safety Gibril Wilson (96 tackles, 4 INT) is the most reliable player in the defensive backfield for the G-Men, and once-maligned cornerback Corey Webster (16 tackles, 1 INT) has played the best football of his career during this postseason. Advantage: Patriots Special Teams Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes (23-27 FG) and his Patriots counterpart, Stephen Gostkowski (21-24 FG), have both made a few big kicks during their respective careers, but neither team is especially hoping that the game comes down to a field goal. Gostkowski yanked a 35-yarder against the Jaguars in the Divisional Round, and Tynes missed two makeable kicks before drilling a 47-yard game-winner against the Packers. In the punting game, both Chris Hanson (41.4 avg.) and Jeff Feagles are steady but far from elite. New England had a couple of kickoff returns for scores during the regular season, including one for Ellis Hobbs (26.0 avg.) way back in Week 1, and the Giants' Domenik Hixon (24.8 avg., 1 TD) burned New England on a touchdown return in Week 17. Call this matchup a wash, and include both teams' return defense in that equation. Advantage: Push Coaching Bill Belichick hasn't come up short in a Super Bowl situation since 1996, when the then-assistant head coach and secondary coach under Bill Parcells couldn't help dial up a suitable defense of the Packers' Brett Favre (Al Groh was New England's defensive coordinator that year). Since then, he's hardly ever been out-coached. This will be the first Super Bowl for Coughlin, but he's 2-1 head-to-head with Belichick. Both wins came for Coughlin's Jaguars over Belichick's Browns in 1995. Giants coordinators Kevin Gilbride (offense) and Steve Spagnuolo (defense) probably have a slight edge on Pats counterparts Josh McDaniels and Dean Pees, but not enough of one to mitigate New England's advantage in the head chair. Advantage: Patriots Overall Though the Patriots have the edge in a majority of the above categories, it's not a decisive edge on many counts. The Giants proved on Dec. 29 that they have the ability to make this a game, and it is difficult to envision a team that is playing with as much confidence and purpose as is New York to get run off the field in this one. Still, it's even more difficult to visualize the Patriots dejectedly walking off the pitch at University of Phoenix stadium as Coughlin and Manning share smiles and hugs on the awards stage. New England has found a way on 18 consecutive occasions, Its often not who wins the games , but who makes less mistakes ... . RUSHING YARDS : TEAMS THAT RUSH FOR MORE YARDS IN THE SUPERBOWL ARE 34-7 S/U AND 30-8-3 ATS (78.9%) PASSING YARDS TEAMS THAT AVG MORE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT ARE 36-5 S/U AND 31-7-3 ATS (81.6%) TURNOVERS IN THE 39 PRIOR SUPERBOWLS THE TEAM THAT HAS MORE TURNOVERS HAS WON JUST 3 TIMES JUST S/U AND 6 TIMES ATS TIME OF POSSESSION : 30-11 S/U , 28-10-3 ATS TEAMS THAT WIN ALL 4 CATEGORIES ARE 23-0 S/U , 21-1-1 ATS 3/4 CATEGORIES ARE 35-1 S/U , 30-5-1 ATS FAVORITES : 29–12 S/U , 21-17-3 55.3% ATS DOUBLE DIGIT FAVS : 9-4 S/U , 7-5-1 ATS -58.3% S/U WINNER IS 33-5-3 ATS NFC IS 21-20 S/U , 20-18-3 ATS THE HIGHER PLAYOFF SEED IS JUST 1-9-2 ATS LAST 12 GAMES THE AVERAGE WINNING SCORE IS 30.5 PPG , LOSING 15.3 PPG THE OVER IS 14-8-1 HOWEVER LAST 3 HAVE GONE UNDER 3 OF 6 GAMES WITH 50 OR MORE WENT UNDER 41 Superbowls 1525 Points Avg 37.195 A Game Only 8 Superbowl That When Over 60 Points 7 POINT TEASER : UNDER 60 PATRIOTS -5 Props... THE JUICE FOR THE PROPOSITIONS BETS ARE HIGH THIS IS A 50/50 BET AND IF YOU LAY -140 YOU’LL LOSE LONG TERM (OBVIOUSLY) HERE’S SOME THAT’S CAUGHT SOME ATTENTION AS ALWAYS HAVE SOME FUN THESE ARE “PLUS” ODDS RESEARCHED TO TRY TO MAKE SOME MONEY ... Will the team that scores first win the game ? Yes - $240 no = + $ 200 in the past 41 Superbowls , the team that scored first has gone on to win the game 26 times ( 63%) However , at + $ 200 or 2-1 odds , its better to win this type of wager , than risk - $ 240 for one bet ... Will the game ever be tied after the first score? Yes + $ 140 No - 170 This is a fun one to root for. If the Giants happen to take a lead , your odds significantly increase ... YES + 140 Will the game be decided by EXACTLY 3 points ? Yes + 550 No - $ 750 The Patriots 3 superbowl wins were decided by 3 points ... worth a prop bet? YES + $ 550 Will either team have a 300 yard passer ? Yes - $ 130 No + $ 110 During the season , Eli exceeded the 300 yard mark just twice. Brady 8 times ... He hasn’t once in the playoffs. Perhaps a no is worth a shot on the odds ... NO + 110 First Coaches Challenge : Two pretty good coaches here that don’t make frivolous challenges Play overturned + 130 ... Eat lots of food , Drink lots G.L.
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You Can't Win , If You're Afraid To lose don't take life too serious. None of us gets out alive .. GIDDY UP |
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Wow.........
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