Technical approach to week 1

[NFLMAN]

Since 1997 week 1 away teams getting 10 points or more are 6-0 ATS vs.
conference opponents.

Since 2000 week 1 losers of the previous Super Bowl are 0-8 ATS

Play on: Chiefs +14.5

[$$$]

get them early

[BigdaddyQH]

You are talking about a trend that has seen 6 games played in 11 years. To be more precise, 1 time in the past 3 years. That is not conclusive enough for me.

[revnecro1273]

i thought the superbowl loser playing on the road in week 1 is the trend where they are 0 fer...i am not sure of the exact trend that i saw from a few years back...but it was oakland playing on the road against tennessee in week 1 following their superbowl loss to tampa bay...that was when i remember seeing such a trend...and i thought it had to do with them being on the road...didnt think it was home team based as well

[NFLMAN]

It doesn't matter where the loser played, home or away they're 0-8 ATS

I will have better picks than this come week 1, but when you love handicapping you can never stop working the games.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by NFLMAN

It doesn't matter where the loser played, home or away they're 0-8 ATS

I will have better picks than this come week 1, but when you love handicapping you can never stop working the games.

[NFLMAN]

Thanks for the welcome sign.

Here's another trend that applies only to week 1 games: Since 2001 AFC teams as week 1 away favorites of 3 points or less with a point total of at least 38 are 9-0 ATS

Cincinnati will be a small favorite at Baltimore. I'm expecting the Bengals to stop clowning around and take care of business this year. Baltimore on the other hand, to begin a long transition.

[BigdaddyQH]

I like your last two trends much better than the first one. Good luck.

[NFLMAN]

Since 2004, 5 teams have named a rookie QB their starter prior week 1, results are 5-0 ATS

We use the term rookie loosely here, Aaron Rodgers will qualify as a rookie for the Packers in week 1 because he has yet to start a game in the NFL... Tavaris Jackson qualified as a rookie last year with Minnesota, since although he had started 2 games for the Vikings toward the end of the previous season, his role at the time was as a second string QB. He was named starting QB prior to the start of the 2007 season... Still, the controversy deepens as I have also included Kyle Orton, since although he was acting as the back up to Grossman, he was named starting QB prior to week 1, 2005. I'm sure this will raise some objections

[BigdaddyQH]

I also use a lot of technical information in my projections. These are also called "trends". The problem is that for every trend you find me, I normally can find one to cancel it out. You give examples of why the Chiefs are a good wager against the Pats, but then when you weigh in the fact that in the past 4 years, the Chiefs are 1-3 in openers and the Pats are 3-1, that cast a shadow on those trends. Add in the fact that the Pats are 5-1 in home openers in their last 6, and the trend continues to weaken. My point is that you can not take one or two trends and develop a wagering strategy. You must use them all, and there are thousands. To be a good technician, you need a very good computer to feed facts into and develop trends. Mark Lawrence is the biggest "technical" capper out there, and his publications have thousands of angles and trends.

[NFLMAN]

Thanks for pointing this out Big Daddy...

I do not use Marc's trends. They are considered "team trends" and I do not value team trends. You might notice that there is a considerable difference between the trends that Marc prints and the ones that I print. One of the reasons that I use this type of trend is based on my experience with handicapping and information valuable to handicapping. One of my theories, is that a man's strongest enemy is himself. We will loose to the Bookmaker unless our strategy is dominant to his. Therefore, allow the line that the Bookmaker publishes to be your guide and bet when the information you are given is complemented by the information you get from the Bookmaker's line. Allow the bookmaker to beat himself, for he is his own best enemy.

[BigdaddyQH]

I use both, and it makes up about 50% of my handicapping. Other factors make up the other 50%. You said that you do not use "team trends", but every trend involves one or two teams. I have to use those trends to balance things out. Ignoring team trends is ignoring a huge part of handicapping, if you are a technical handicapper. The biggest thing that the average gambler fails to use is common sense. I have been in this racket for over 40 years now, and the most important factor I use is this: "If it just don't look right, stay away from it." All the trends in the world can not beat good old common sense. "When it doubt, throw it out" is my motto. I also play the colleges and pros differently. The technical game is more accurate with the pro game than the college game. The college game relies on a lot more common sense than the pros. There is absolutely no valuable information for the Florida-Hawaii game, but does anyone out there think that Florida can not cover a spread under 35 points? I certainly do not.

[NFLMAN]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

I use both,

And do you think that I don't?

I lied, I do sometimes use a team trend, for instance: The NY Jets are 1-20 ATS the game before they visit the New England Patriots.

This trend has value to me because it makes sense. 3 out of the last 4 years I found other important information that made the Jets a logical team to 'bet against' the game before they visited New England. The trend meant little compared to the information and the line that was published. I understand your logic, I share in it and hope that we can work together when the season is upon us. But I don't handicap college football.

Part of my theory stipulates that the Bookmaker puts a line on every game, you can beat him at one sport if you focus all of your attention to one sport while he is struggling to stay current with them all. I choose pro football because information is more accessible to it than any other sport, and like college football, the Bookmaker puts a line up 6 days before the game. I usually bet within the last 5 minutes before the games start, another large advantage.

[Bozzie]

Great info NLF man

[NFLMAN]

Thanks bozzie

Btw, I love this forum. I get more responses here than anywhere else. It's like having someone to talk to while my wife is sleeping. Thanks guys.