Things you should know about Redskins vs. Bills

[pacpie]

I've noticed the line opened at -5 and is now -7.

I've also noticed some of you love the Bills this week coming off their bye against a team that lost against the Panthers.

I'm from Buffalo and I watch this team religiously and I went back and watched the Panthers vs. Redskins game this past week and noticed a few things that could show up this Sunday:

The Redskins bring great pressure on pass plays with a 4 man front. This is key to note because Chris Hairston, rookie Left Tackle for the Bills (filling in for Demetrius Bell) was injured 2 weeks ago and they thought that D Bell would be ready to go this week but it's looking like a gametime decision (I'm guessing he'll come back next week - and yes, Bell has been playing really well when healthy). This means that Andy Levitre will move from guard to LT. He looked brutal against the Giants in his limited time at LT. I'm not saying he will be that bad but I think D Bell coming back would be great news for the Bills but I don't think its happening this week. Besides that, Chad Rinehart comes in to fill Levitre's spot at guard. He's actually been pretty good when he comes in so the drop off won't be bad but still - this line is a little out of sorts. I noticed Kerrigan is looking really good as a rookie - bringing consistent pressure.

The Redskins gave up a ton of yards on the ground against the Panthers. The Bills have a really good running game right now with Fred Jackson (who is close to leading the league in yards) and CJ Spiller (who has been filling in as a WR because of injuries). Panthers RBs Stewart and Williams carved Redskins up with their speed. Fred Jackson isn't speedy but he fights for every yard. Spiller is the speed back so it wouldn't surprise me if they gave him a bunch of carries this week.

Hightower was really good against the Panthers prior to his injury in that game. Losing him will be a little blow for their run game. Torain and Helu are pretty solid but not the game changing back that Hightower can be. Santana Moss also made a few plays before hurting his hand. Jabbar Gaffney immediately became John Beck's #1 target after Moss's injury. Beck also established a good connection with Fred Davis as the game went on.

Beck doesn't respond to the blitz well (particularly on 3rd down). He holds the ball just a second too long which got him into trouble against the Panthers (a defense that isn't very good). Beck did really well when the Panthers didn't blitz. The Bills D hasn't shown much in the way of pressure for most of the season. Kyle Williams has already been declared OUT for this game which is a huge blow. Merriman was IR'd this week too but he wasn't doing much in terms of pressure - more of a run stop guy. Torell Troup, their 2nd round pick from last year and a defensive tackle, has been having back issues so I'm not sure if he'll be ready to go this week which means Kellen Heard will see a lot of time at DT. The Bills will really need to come up with some blitz packages to get through to Beck.

The Bills are missing too many guys to be 7 point favorites and this is not truly a home game for them. Thus far the Toronto series has been very dull. Maybe it was because the team has sucked for so many years and they didn't give Toronto much of a reason to cheer but the atmosphere there has been anything but a home game. Very neutral site.

They need Fitzpatrick to return to form. His quick reads will help against the good pressure the Redskins bring with a 4 man front. But if he resembles the Fitz we saw against the Giants, this game will be very close. If he's the guy who was throwing it all over like he was in the first 3 games of the season, then the Bills could run away with this one. Donald Jones still isn't back so they aren't deep at WR right now but they are working with Spiller at WR. Gailey having an extra week of prep will certainly help. The Bills looked really good last year after their bye week against a tough Ravens team. They need to give the Redskins a heavy dose of the run game and get ahead early, forcing Beck to pass more which could create turnovers for a very opportunistic defense. Beck started off very shaky against the Panthers (nerves?) but eventually found a groove (somewhere in the middle of the 2nd quarter) and was very effective in the 2nd half.

All that said - I'm obviously rooting for the Bills but I feel like 7 points is way too much. Every game has been close for the Bills (except the Chiefs one). If the Bills beat the Redskins by that much it's because the 'Skins injuries are just too much (Fletcher possibly out with the hamstring issue, Moss, Hightower) and Fitzpatrick returns to early season form. Oh yeah and if they run the ball down their throat which is the way to beat this D.

[kermit]

Great write up Pac thanks for the extra insight. I'm on the bills this week for all the reasons that you listed above...Jackson is the key to the Bills offense and I dont think that the skins defense can contain him, through receiving and rushing I think Jackson could get 200 yards this week with a couple of majors...with a back that is hurting your defense that much it really opens up the passing game which Fitz should be able to exploit with relative ease, coming off the bye I think buffalo wins by 14+

[VegasKilla]

excellent writeup

[parlay-vous]

i think you are right on

GL

[aztriman]

Great write-up. One other point though, that really favors the Bills. The Skins starting left guard and left tackle are out, which is not good for the run or pass game. The Skins won't have time to work deep down the field against the suspect secondary of the Bills. I think the Bills win this one easy, the only question is if they can cover -7. I loved it at 5, kinda netural at 7, though still lean Bills.

[Patriots Game]

I bought this early for Bills -4.5. If it's a -7, I would kinda be worried. I'll post some info when I get it via twitter or WGR550

[Cash Calloway]

Good info a few other points

Bills got the worst pass rush in the NFL and the Skins got the best so Fred Jackson and the running game better be rolling.

Ticket sales for the game are slow and if it is a sellout as they'll advertise it will be a corporate sell-out so forget about the home field advantage as you pointed out. Most of the Bills players already realize this and I have heard numerous players say there not considering this a home game.

Shane Merriman is done for the season but it won't matter he wasn't doing dick so it might be an upgrade.

[LadyDawn]

don't care where they play redsklins same old shit differnt year pea shooter offense and all defense with no true pro bowl QB
YA dont have rush the redskins to beat them just keep thier defense on the field longer and you got an easy win !

Without handicapping this game BILLS 21 redskins 10 or it may be like what Saints did to COLTS lol wash. stinks i fade em more than play on them
TE cooley out - Higtower OUT 2 guys on O line gone OMG Redskins look like a hospital accident ward !