University Paper About Underdog Betting In The NFL

[LordCC]

I found this an interesting read & thought I would share it.

http://www.uwyo.edu/aadland/research/NFLbets.pdf

[Sam "Ace" Rothstein]

thanks for that,good read, and it definatly looks like it works.
week one the system picked:
bills loss
steelers win
texans win
eagles loss
seahawks win
rams loss
redskins win
cheifs win

so week one the system went 5-3

week 2 it picked:
bengals win
detroit win
washington loss (by 1/2 a point)
jets win
49ers win
bills loss

week 2 it went 4-2
9-4 so far this season

this weeks picks right now are:
tampa bay
detroit
st. louis
seattle
buffalo
cincinatti
oakland
cleveland

tb and st louis are right at 6.5 right now, so they could change with the line movement.

thanks again

[wmburk95]

Do I have this correct? The system in the study says to bet on visiting dogs receiving 10.5 or more points and home dogs receiving 6.5 or more points? Thank you.

[Sam "Ace" Rothstein]

Originally Posted by wmburk95

Do I have this correct? The system in the study says to bet on visiting dogs receiving 10.5 or more points and home dogs receiving 6.5 or more points? Thank you.

bet on visiting dogs getting 10.5 or more and home dogs getting 6.5 or LESS.

when i checked it with the first two weeks this season it has done well, but i figured out what it would have picked last year, and the system went 37-47.

[wmburk95]

Hi Ace: Thank you for the reply. Looking at the article again, it does look like the greater than or equal to symbol follows the instruction for home dogs. > with a line under it. That would make it home dogs of greater than or eq

[wmburk95]

greater than or equal to to 6.5 points. (Sorry about the computer glitch.)

[Sam "Ace" Rothstein]

you are correct, i saw the number and read it backwards. i will refigure everything correctly. sorry for the confusion.

[Sam "Ace" Rothstein]

corrected record for week 1:
min push
car loss
det win
cin loss
cle push
den loss
oak loss
bal win
week 1: 2-4-2

corrected record for week 2:
kc win
pit win
chi win
tb win
ari loss
mia win
st.lou win
sea loss
jax loss
det win
so it went 7-3 week 2


9-7-2 for this season

[dave nz]

Originally Posted by Sam "Ace" Rothstein

thanks for that,good read, and it definatly looks like it works.
week one the system picked:
bills loss
steelers win
texans win
eagles loss
seahawks win
rams loss
redskins win
cheifs win

so week one the system went 5-3

week 2 it picked:
bengals win
detroit win
washington loss (by 1/2 a point)
jets win
49ers win
bills loss

week 2 it went 4-2
9-4 so far this season

this weeks picks right now are:
tampa bay
detroit
st. louis
seattle
buffalo
cincinatti
oakland
cleveland

tb and st louis are right at 6.5 right now, so they could change with the line movement.

thanks again

You would need to base it on at least 5 seasons not 3 weeks

[mark12]

Originally Posted by wmburk95

Do I have this correct? The system in the study says to bet on visiting dogs receiving 10.5 or more points and home dogs receiving 6.5 or more points? Thank you.

This way must be correct though because they also say that the system only averages 2 plays per week. Using the other method provides way to many plays. This makes more sense also and seems to provide about the right amount of plays.

Week 1 - 0 plays
Week 2 - Buff. loses to GB and
Det. covers against Phil.
Week 3- plays as of now would be Buff. Clev. & Det. with both Den. and Sea. close at +5.5 at home.

if either of them made the grade that would be 6 plays in 3 weeks just about the right average.

[mark12]

Originally Posted by dave nz

You would need to base it on at least 5 seasons not 3 weeks

The data were obtained from NFLdata.com and consist of all games from 1985 through 2008, a total of 5,976 games. The closing lines are taken from VegasInsider and measured 12 hours prior to the beginning of each game. We removed all games played on a neutral site where there is no home or visitor designation, all games where neither team is favored, all games that finished in a push, and all games in week 17. All overtime games are determined by the final score after the overtime period. The final data set includes 5,397 games.

[dave nz]

Originally Posted by mark12

The data were obtained from NFLdata.com and consist of all games from 1985 through 2008, a total of 5,976 games. The closing lines are taken from VegasInsider and measured 12 hours prior to the beginning of each game. We removed all games played on a neutral site where there is no home or visitor designation, all games where neither team is favored, all games that finished in a push, and all games in week 17. All overtime games are determined by the final score after the overtime period. The final data set includes 5,397 games.

k........so this is your work? or its taken from the pdf file? not able to view the pdf, have to wait till I use my laptop.

[mark12]

Originally Posted by dave nz

k........so this is your work? or its taken from the pdf file? not able to view the pdf, have to wait till I use my laptop.

no these are stats from the study.

[scr0da]

I like this. Anyone with me to try it this week?

[mark12]

Originally Posted by scr0da

I like this. Anyone with me to try it this week?

I'm on it.