Vegas had it right at 5

[woody]

I dont really have any hard and fast rules when it comes to betting in the NFL other than these 2:

1. I usually throw a few bucks on DD road dogs.

2. When the line is at 5, I always take the dog. To me the only way to come out with a 5 spread is to have a safety or a missed PAT somewhere in the game. In going back last year.. I bet 9 games this way and won 7 pushed one and lost one. I also seem to remember that in a few cases the dog getting 5 won outright. I wish I had more historical statistical info to back up this theory, trend. I am definitely going to follow it this year.

Any thoughts??

[Seanie Mac]

always take +5 huh? 5 is the 2nd most dead number, 9 is the 1st. that logic sounds off the wall.


what an overreaction by everyone because some people pushed the 1st game, which really shouldn't have happened if you had multiple outs.


what games last year did you bet at +5? there is no way you pushed 7 games with +5 last year. I wouldn't believe you if you said you pushed 7 games with 3 last year

[Seanie Mac]

0 699 0.00% 0.00%
1 2,213 0.33% 2.44%
2 2,703 0.27% 2.07%
3 2,954 0.54% 9.38%
4 3,019 0.32% 3.28%
5 3,207 0.22% 1.59%
6 2,160 0.39% 3.38%
7 1,918 0.51% 5.16%
8 1,845 0.33% 2.06%
9 1,447 0.27% 1.04%
10 917 0.71% 4.80%
11 793 0.54% 2.40%
12 610 0.33% 0.66%
13 397 0.66% 1.76%
14 311 1.18% 4.50%




Push Percentages in the NFL from 1985-2008. tell me again how you pushed 7 games @ +5 last year

[upinya83]

Originally Posted by woody

I bet 9 games this way and won 7 pushed one and lost one.

reread seanie ....

[Seanie Mac]

Originally Posted by upinya83

reread seanie ....

ah man, fml lol. delete my posts ups?

[lechu]

He said he won 7 games pushed 1 lost 1

[Seanie Mac]

yes I see this now..I thought..I feel dumb now

[bigsportsguy2006]

mod, please dont delete seanies posts. thanks!

[Seanie Mac]

lol, ups hook me up and I'll send you a Marcus Fizer signed card

[Romanowski]

saints, two missed fgs...lol

on sportscenter dude was like, those were a big deal somewhere...

[bigsportsguy2006]

haha yea rome .... someone said "and he missed the FG to give them an 8 point lead ... "but it didnt matter as they won the game regardless, unless of course you got hit by the hook" ... i started laughing pretty hard

[garyrenard]

In the multiple football pools I get in, I had the Saints in all of them and either lost on 5.5 or won on 4.5.

Math is a fickle business.

[Hoosiercatdaddy]

Originally Posted by woody

I dont really have any hard and fast rules when it comes to betting in the NFL other than these 2:

1. I usually throw a few bucks on DD road dogs.

2. When the line is at 5, I always take the dog. To me the only way to come out with a 5 spread is to have a safety or a missed PAT somewhere in the game. In going back last year.. I bet 9 games this way and won 7 pushed one and lost one. I also seem to remember that in a few cases the dog getting 5 won outright. I wish I had more historical statistical info to back up this theory, trend. I am definitely going to follow it this year.

Any thoughts??

Anyone have the percentages of missed/blocked extra points? I am assuming it is very very low but I knew as soon as it happened, it would be the reason +4.5 lost. Where is GoTerps when you need him?

[bigsportsguy2006]

uva should be able to come up with a mathematical formula to figure it out HCD

[woody]

Seanie Mac -- No Problem, I read crap wrong all the time--

No unfortunately I dont have the 5 point games that I did this with last year, but I was able to research the 5 point games from 2008 season.

9/21/08 NO +5 over Denver -- Denver 34-32 Final
10/5/08 Atl +5 over GB -- Atlanta 27-24 Final
10/12/08 Arz + 5 over Dallas -- Arizona 30-24 Final
10/12/08 San Fran +5 over Philly -- Philly 40-26 Final
10/26/08 Arz +5 over Carolina -- Carolina 27-23 Final
11/2/08 NYJ +5 over Buff -- Jets 26-17 Final
11/23/08 NYJ +5 over Tenn -- Jets 34-13 Final
12/7/08 SanFran+5 over NYJ -- SanFran 24-14 Final
12/14/08 SanFran +5 over Miami -- SanFran 14-9 Final

These were all 9 games in 2008 that closed with a 5 pt spread. In this year if you took the 5pts. You would have went 7-1-1.

5 outright dog winners -- 1 loss(philly) -- 2 covers -- 1 push

Take a look at SD/KC this week on Mon nite. Line sitting at 4- now. Why is a 13 win team that outscored KC 80-20 in their two meetings last year only a 4- point favorite? If its at 5 on Monday, I think I take KC.