VEGAS SPORTS BOOKS GEARING UP FOR FEB 5th BUT ON SHAKY GROUND

[Pic n Locs]

Three is a dangerous number to play with and most sports books are probably hoping that the game runs one way or another to avoid the most popular margin of victory in pro football. The five year average of all pro football games shows 14.6% of all games landing on 3, not including both of Sunday’s Championship games which were both won by three-point margins.

Should the sports books find themselves jumping back and forth around the most dangerous number in the biggest game of the year, and then the favored team happened to win by 3, it’ll be a rough decision for the house.

The hope for most sports books is that the what-we-saw-last mentality wears off and that favored team gets back up to -3 ½, and maybe even -4, before the massive onslaught of action begins on the final weekend.

It was just last season when we saw a steady 3 last throughout with the favored Packers beating the Steelers 31-25. Before that, the last 3 we saw in the Super Bowl was the Ravens beating the Giants 34-7 after the 2001 season.

Regardless of what the number settles on, Kornegay expects handle to be great for this game.“With these two teams, I would expect the handle to match last seasons ($87 million),” said Kornegay.

Last year’s Super Bowl saw a net win of only $724,176 across the entire state for a low 0.8% that left many major sports books as losers for the day, something they hope doesn’t reoccur this year. They definitely don‘t want a repeat the 2008 Super Bowl that saw the Giants win straight-up as 12-point underdogs against the Patriots. That was the worst Super Bowl in Nevada history with a loss of $2.57 Million (-2.8%).

That Super Bowl loss was spurred by the majority of small money piling up on a deflated money-line price with the underdog. Despite getting no value on the money-line, bettors still lined up to bet the Giants to win straight-up and the books couldn’t make up to the 3-to-1 payouts.

This is the only game of the year where sharp money means very little. The movement we saw Sunday night when the line was first posted was dictated by large money with lower limits. But once the days start to count down to February 5, all the little $20 bets will account for much more than a single $20,000 wager from a wise guy.

The all-time record for Super Bowl handle was in 2006 when a booming economy sent $94.5 million in wagers through Nevada sports book windows. The Steelers-Seahawks game didn’t provide the most glamorous matchup in Super Bowl history, but cash was flowing through Vegas from all neighborhoods at that time like never before.

If Nevada is able to match last year’s great matchup as Kornegay says is possible, than it should be considered a success. Now the hard part is winning and trying to match the all-time win record, which was in 2005 when books held 17% with $15.4 million in win. That was a Bookmakers dream where the favored Patriots (-7) won 24-21, but didn’t cover against the Eagles and the game stayed UNDER (46 ½).

Info Compliments of Micah Roberts