Washington/Dallas Line

[richardcranium]

Wow I am very surprised at this line. I read somewhere Monday Night that sometimes the lines just look too good to be true. Vegas loves seeing people line up to take the 8 or 9 points and the jets.

We aren't talking about a team with a QB trying to figure out a new system and with limited talent around them. We are talking about the Redskins who maintained most of there coachig staff and only tweaked the passing part of there offense and have plenty of talent of there own.

We also aren't talking about a SD team that blew a last second lead and the next week had one taken from them. A team that was furious and had a lot to prove. We are talking about Dallas that is 3 - 0 and has just won back to back emotional games.

In addition to it being a divisional rival game..........

You can call me a sucker at 7:30 on Sunday if I am wrong but I just don't see this one being a blow out.

[Pap]

on the same page, this was the first line that caught my eye. i think +11.5 is too much

[jim1701]

I think line woulda been fair...but Washington will give Dallas a wake-up call. I see Washington leading by maybe 7-10 at half (cant believe im sayin this..)...then Cowboys in 2nd half. Dallas wins by 3-6 pts.

w00t!

[TheMavsMan]

Im on Washington as well... Too many points to pass up.

[QuadzillaXXX]

It's funny but when I put my lines together this week I had DAL -12 which I thought was crazy and was looking for a mistake somewhere thinking the Vegas line wouldn't be anywhere near it. Then it actually came out at -11.5 moving to -11.
I don't think it's likely that Dallas covers that but I do think it is actually possible. I'll probably just avoid this one but good luck to you guys if you jump on this one.

[RanPicks]

Originally Posted by jim1701

I see Washington leading by maybe 7-10 at half (cant believe im sayin this..)...

I can't either...

[mac_the_handicapper]

This spread is easily the best Bet of the week.

[Money$$$]

I just had a dream that Washington covered this game haha.. guess wash is the play for me

[mickey]

This is a strange game for me. I love Dallas but 11 seems too high. No value here,staying away from this one.
Impressed with Dallas, yes. But still concerns on defense and the Redskins might be finding some offense. Just too many points in a division rivalry game where Dallas may let down and not be at the top of their game.

[Pap]

Originally Posted by Money$$$

I just had a dream that Washington covered this game haha.. guess wash is the play for me

haha same, i had one where redskins and eagles cover

[Kramer]

BY KELSO STURGEON

I have met, known and had as friends literally hundreds of BookmakerS in my 38 years of handicapping.


Some booked in Nevada where it is legal, some in the subculture were it is illegal, some in Youngstown where it is a religion and some off-shore where a case can be made both ways. Regardless, almost all the relationships have been based on mutual respect. I shared information with them and them with me.

It took some of the drama out of the battle of wits in which bettors and Bookmaker IS engage each day, for both of us it at least gave us a basic understanding of what was going down on both sides of the counter.



The purpose of my communications with Bookmaker was an attempt to keep from getting blind-sided by something hidden from the public or to walk into a trap and get buried by the manipulation of betting numbers by true wiseguys.

You can know almost everything there is to know and still lose but in this day and age of the Internet and the volumes of information it lays before us each day, it is the cardinal sin to overlook the obvious, make a mistake and get beat.

Whether bookmakeror bettor, it is one common thing-this fear of getting whacked by the unknown-that keeps us all on our toes and eternally suspicious of any betting number, regardless of how strong or weak we think it is. It is the number, period.

Well, my friends, the bookmakers made a mistake this week that gives National Football League bettors an edge about which one can only dream-until now.


First a little background on betting lines. They are not pulled from the sky but quite accurately reflect the numerical value of each team in each game. Far more often than not, the pointspread speaks the truth.



Before posting the first numbers into which the public is going to bet, you can take it to the bank that bookmakers study, study and study each betting line-always asking, "how can "they" (that's us) take this number and strangle us with it.

Bookmakers and linemakers think of every conceivable angle before inviting us to bet, knowing when they make a mistake they can lose a fortune on a single game.

Every number is to be the ultimate challenge in this on-going battle of wits.

The mistake made this week was enormous in its magnitude and the financial impact may bury some of the biggest bookmakers in the world-maybe even ruin them for the season


The "Funny" Redskins-Cowboy Number


When bookmakers first posted their NFL numbers this week, they were within minutes hit by millions of dollars in "teaser" bets that used the Dallas Cowboys with several other teams.


Believe, when I say millions of dollars in wagers, I mean that literally.

What had happened here came about because something slipped through the vetting process.


The Dallas Cowboys graded out to be a legitimate 8 ½-point favorite over the Washington Redskins and that is the number first posted.

The wiseguys are their most wide-awake at the opening and started pounding Dallas (-2 ½) with several teams in 6-point teasers.



The open at -8 ½ permitted them to move the betting line through the key number of "3" with 6-point teasers and meant they had Dallas (-2 ½) with any number of other teams in two-team teasers.

Wiseguy money came in so heavily that bookmakers were between the proverbial rock and a hard place.


They were in a trap in which the odds said they had already been had with the worst yet to come. The only way they could recover was to go for Washington Redskins action and they moved the number to Dallas -10- and -10 ½.

The public, AKA "the followers" did not know the reason behind the almost immediate move from -8 ½ to -10 ½ figured it was smart money and jumped on it taking Dallas and laying the bigger wood, eventually driving the number out to the Cowboys -13.

Seeing what was happening the ever-alert wiseguys, already down with all those six-figure teasers with Dallas -2 ½, could not pass up the opportunity to come right back and bet their lungs on Washington +13



The wiseguys bet so much money on the Redskins +13 the number has since dropped to Dallas -11 and bookmakers are sitting on a financial whipping the likes of which most have never seen


Bookmakers are facing losses in the millions if Dallas (-2 ½) comes through on those teasers and if the Redskins cover the +13.

In speaking to one of the big bettors, I asked him if Washington was a bargain at +11 and he told me to go for it. His thoughts were as mine-if a team is truly an 8 ½ point favorite and you can get the 'dog at +11, step up and fire.

Tell'em where you got it.

[Pap]

wow that is some solid stuff

[cuse_man]

pretty sure they did not make this line being concerned with teaser bets but thanks anyway STURGEON

[Kramer]

you missed the point cuse,
it opened -81/2

line should have opened -9 1/2
to avoid 6 point teasers in mind ...
and key number of three

wouldn't you like to get the cowboys
at a field goal?

[Pap]

teaser skins +17 looks nice