Week 1 Line Moves

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Week 1 NFL Line Moves -- Chad Millman - ESPN

Here's why betting Week 1 of the NFL season is so hard unless you are truly paying attention -- in the spring and summer. Because that is when so many books, in Vegas and offshore, are posting their opening numbers for the regular season. And if you don't get in on the action early, then the opportunities are lost. Take a look at some of the moves that have taken place over the past few months: San Francisco going from pick to minus-3 over Seattle, Green Bay going from plus-1 to minus-3 versus the Eagles, Tampa Bay going from minus-1 to minus-3 over Cleveland. All of these are examples of games that wiseguys bought in June and July that the rest of us are just starting to think about. This is what the sharps call getting the best of the number. It'll be easier for us as the season goes on, when lines go up just seven days before a game, not 17 weeks. But in this first week, the best we can do is understand why the moves were made and then decide for ourselves if there is any value left in the line or not.

To help me parse the options this week I called up 'capper Jim Kruger, a reformed University of Kansas journalism student, turned Kansas City standup comic, turned joke writer, turned commodity trader turned stock broker turned tech exec. The guy's had more jobs than Bill Parcells. Ba-da bum! Thank you very much. Since the turn of the century he's been in Vegas and spent most of those years making his living as a professional bettor. I sat next to Jim at the wiseguy breakfast when I was in town a few weeks ago and he actually was funny.

Hopefully we won't look back at his analysis Monday and think the same thing. Here we go with the Week 1 NFL line moves.

Matchup: Cincinnati at New England
Line move: Pats opened as 6-point faves, currently 4.5-point faves.
Kruger says that means: "Part of this is that Cincy is one of the teams of the day. They did a nice job upgrading their offense, not just with an old T.O., but at tight end and at other receiver spots in the draft. But mostly, this is about New England. The first week of the season the best you can go on is what happened during a team's dress rehearsal game in the preseason. For New England, this was in the third game when the defense was torched by the Rams for 36 points. The defense for this team is getting younger in a bad way, especially in the defensive backfield, which is most vulnerable against a team with seemingly as many weapons as Cincy has now."

Matchup: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Line move: The game opened Bucs minus-1, currently Bucs minus-3.
Kruger says that means: "I really like Tampa this year. I have a nice bet on them to go over 5.5 wins. And it's a team that a lot of wiseguys like because the season win total has moved up, to six. They've shed a lot of old players down there the past few years and the perception out here is that they are rebuilding the right way, especially with that front seven. But mostly, this is about Jake Delhomme. People don't trust him. I know Cleveland was strong at the end of last season and covered a lot, but there just isn't any faith in this team and the moves it made during the offseason. Delhomme is central to that. The only way I'd play Cleveland is if I could get it at the +3 for plus money, meaning +3 for plus-105 instead of the standard minus-110."

Matchup: Green Bay at Philadelphia
Line move: From Packers plus-1 to currently being three-point favorites.
Kruger says that means: "I think it's the correct move. Philly is going to have some very young starters and Kevin Kolb didn't light it up during the preseason. Meanwhile Green Bay has looked like it's in midseason form. But at this point I wouldn't play Green Bay. Not unless I was getting them for plus points. I just think too much of Andy Reid. There is one interesting stat to bring up here: In the past five seasons there have been just 27 home dogs in Week 1 and they are 12-15 against the spread. This year, there are eight home dogs alone in Week 1. Historically, those teams haven't performed well. Still not taking Green Bay here, though."

Matchup: San Francisco at Seattle
Line move: From pick to San Fran minus-3
Kruger says that means: "I got this at pick because when I first saw it I thought this line would move. People don't realize that this is the first season Alex Smith is getting to stay in the same offensive system for two years in a row. Plus he has a lot of talent around him in Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. On the flip side, not a lot of guys out here like what Pete Carroll has been doing with his Seattle roster. It culminated in the offensive line coach quitting just the other day. What he's done doesn't bode well for early season success. This is another one of those games I would only buy back Seattle plus-3 if I could get plus money, plus-105 or 110."

Matchup: San Diego at Kansas City
Line move: Chargers opened minus-6, now minus-4.5
Kruger says that means: "I took the Chiefs at plus-6 back in June and this is partially a play against Norv Turner. His teams always come out slow and this year their offseason has been full of distractions. Two years ago in their home opener they lost outright to the Panthers as nine-point favorites and last year they didn't cover against the Raiders. I also really like the moves Kansas City made this offseason. I think their center, Casey Wiegmann, coming back is important. Plus, I lived in Kansas City for a long time and was a season ticket holder at Arrowhead. I know how loud it can get there on a Monday night. Playing a division rival in prime time and with some optimism about the team will get those fans going."