Week 1 NFL Angles : ...

[Kramer]

As you get ready for week 1 of NFL ,
here are some "angles" to consider -
These are a little different from trends ...

FROM 2000-2005 :

NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time.

The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from.


Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999-2004


Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams.


Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games those past five seasons

it is important to note some of the basics regarding home and road, favorite and dog, as well as totals performance.

In all, over the last 10 years, (1997-2006)
road teams hold a 78-71 ATS edge for 52.3%. favorites are 69-79 (46.6%),

and under plays have converted at a 81-73 mark in Week 1 of the NFL season.
( 1997 - 2006)


1. (+16.7 Units) On extreme Week 1 Totals (35 or less, 45 or higher), UNDER’s have hit at a 31-13 rate for 70.4%
’07 Plays: New Orleans-Indianapolis Under 50.5, Arizona-San Francisco Under 45
(1-1 LAST YEAR)
2. (+12.4 Units) Home Favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 19-6 ATS (76.0%) in Week 1 since ‘97
’07 Plays: Houston –2.5, Minnesota –3, Oakland –1.5, Cincinnati –3
(3-1 LAST YEAR)
3. (+11.9 Units) On posted totals in the 40-44.5 range, the OVER has converted at a 62.5% rate (35-21)
’07 Plays: Carolina-St Louis Over 41.5, Philadelphia-Green Bay Over 43.5, New England-NY Jets Over 41, Tampa Bay-Seattle Over 41.5, Chicago-San Diego Over 42.5, NY Giants-Dallas Over 44, Baltimore-Cincinnati over 40.5
4. (+10.8 Units) Road Underdogs of greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown (-3.5 to –6.5) have won at a 24-12 mark for 66.7% over the last 10 seasons.
’07 Plays: New Orleans +6, Tennessee +6.5, Tampa Bay +6, Chicago +5.5, NY Giants +5
(0-4 LAST YEAR)
5. (+5.0 Units) Double-digit Underdogs in the first week of the regular season are 5-0 ATS (100%) since ’97.
’07 Plays: NONE
6. (+4.9 Units) Road Underdogs facing an opponent who finished .500 or worse a year ago are 28-21 (57.1%) on opening weekend since ’97.
’07 Plays: Kansas City +2.5, Tennessee +6.5, Atlanta +3, Miami +3, Detroit +1.5, Arizona +3
KCL, TENL,ATL -L,MIA =P,DET-W,ARI-P
7. (+4.3 Units) Non-Divisional Conference Home Underdogs are on a nice run of 12-7 ATS for 63.2% success.
’07 Plays: Buffalo +3.5, Green Bay +3( BOTH WON) NOW 14-7-66.7 %
8. (+4.1 Units) Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have converted on 25 of 44 opportunities, for 56.8%.
’07 Plays: Indianapolis –6, Houston –2.5, Jacksonville –6.5, San Diego –5.5, Dallas –5, Cincinnati –3
(IND-W,HOU-W, JV-L ,SD-W,DAL-W,CIN-W)NOW 30 OF 45 66.7%
9. (+3.8 Units) Divisional Home Favorites of –1 to –3 points in Week 1 are 6-2 ATS (75.0%) in their last eight opportunities.
’07 Plays: Cincinnati –3, San Francisco -3
(CIN-W,SF-P)7-2-1
10. (+3.3 Units) Divisional Road Favorites in Week 1 own a 11-7 ATS (61.1%) record since ’97.
’07 Plays: Pittsburgh –4.5, New England –6.5
BOTH WON NOW 13-7 ATS
11. (+3.3 Units) Road Favorites in Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 11-7 ATS (61.1%) run.
’07 Plays: Philadelphia -3, New England –6.5
1-1 LAST YEAR
12. (+3.3 Units) Divisional Road Favorites in Week 1 own an 11-7 ATS (61.1%) record since ’97.
’07 Plays: Pittsburgh –4.5, New England –6.5
BOTH WON NOW 13-7
13. (+3.0 Units) Overall, Home Underdogs of greater than a field goal - 3.5 points or more - are 14-10 ATS (58.3%) over the last 10 seasons in Week 1.
’07 Plays: Cleveland +4.5, NY Jets +6.5
BOTH LOST NOW 14-12
14. (+3.0 Units) When a Week 1 Home Underdog had a better SU record the prior year, that team is 3-0-1 ATS (100%)
’07 Plays: NONE
15. (+2.9 Units) Home Underdogs facing an opponent that had a losing record in the prior season are on a 4-1-1 ATS run (80%)
’07 Plays: NONE
Using a simple mathematical formula of adding the combined units for each of our 15 trends, this would be the top 15 plays for NFL Week 1:
1. Cincinnati –3 (20.3 Units) WON
2. New Orleans-Indianapolis Under 50.5 (+16.7 Units) L
Arizona-San Francisco Under 45 (+16.7 Units) W
4. Carolina-St Louis Over 41.5 (+11.9 Units) W
Philadelphia-Green Bay Over 43.5 (+11.9 Units) L
New England-NY Jets Over 41 (+11.9 Units) W
Tampa Bay-Seattle Over 41.5 (+11.9 Units)L
Chicago-San Diego Over 42.5 (+11.9 Units)L
NY Giants-Dallas Over 44 (+11.9 Units)W
Baltimore-Cincinnati over 40.5 (+11.9 Units) W
11. Houston –2.5 (+11.6 Units) W
Tennessee +6.5 LOST SPREAD
13. Tampa Bay +6.5 (+10.8 Units) L
14. Minnesota –3 (+7.5 Units)W
Oakland –1.5 (+7.5 Units)L
TOTAL 8 W , 7 L( FROM 2007)

2 YEAR TRENDS :
Bet over on any total 37 or less, bet under on any total 51 or higher.

2006-07 record 29-22 57%
2007-08 record 27-17 61%

Bet any home dog (+2 or higher) if the visiting team is playing on a surface other than their home surface.

2006-07 record 21-11 66%
2007-08 record 26-20 57%

(MIAMI IS GRASS SURFACE , JETS ARE FIELD TURF , PLAY MIAMI WEEK 1 DOG)
(BROWNS ARE GRASS , COWBOYS ARE FIELD TURF PLAY BROWNS)
JAX,TEN BOTH GRASS -NO PLAY

*** Feel free to calculate the 2008 plays
from the # 1-15 Angles

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

nicely written up kramer...... always good to have that extra edge....

maybe you or someone can fill in this weeks games to fit your bill

[Kramer]

Here's what I guesstimate for 2008 :

1 : KC/NE U45
OAK/CLE U 48

2 : BUF , NO
3. 40-44
WAS/NYG - OVER
HOU/PIT OVER
DET/ATL - OVER
AZ/SF OVER
DEN/OAK OVER
TB./NO OVER
ST.L./PHI-OVER
CHI/IND -OVER
CAR/SD - OVER

4 : HOU + 6.5 , TBAY + 3.5

5. KC
6. SEA + 1
7.,CLEV,ATL
8. PIT,BUF,NO
9.G.B.
10.WASH,CIN,NYJ,JV,ARI,DEN
11.JV,DAL
12.CIN,NYJ,JV,ARI,DEN
13.CLE
14.NONE
15.MIA,ATL,DEN

YOU'LL SEE SOME GAMES CONTRADICT EACH OTHER ,
SO YOU'D TAKE THE BEST ANGLE TOTALS AND DCECIDE :

E.G. NJY/MIA ; NYJ 12-7 # 12
MIA : 4-1-1 -NOT MANY GAMES

2 NEW QB'S EACH TEAM ...

MANY TOTALS ARE ALSO SET LOW DUE TO A # OF NEW QB'S THIS YEAR,
AND FIRST GAME ... ( MIA,NYJ,ATL,OAK HALF NEW,BUF FAIRLY NEW ,
CLE 1 YR,KC ,ETC)

The lowest is 36 on the New York Jets-Miami matchup.

Guess oddsmakers aren’t anticipating a Brett Favre-Chad Pennington shootout.


LVSC anticipated this, so they purposely shaded a number of totals lower.
“We can’t make totals low enough for Week 1,” he said pointing out that his company first made opening-week numbers back in the early spring.


The combination of new quarterbacks, the perception of defenses being ahead of offenses at this stage and superstars who could be rusty such as Brady and Peyton Manning, all account for the early ‘under’ action.
“I’d imagine most totals will be bet down this first week,” Mike Seba said. “That trend already has emerged.”


Detroit is laying three points at Atlanta opening week. It’s just the fourth time this decade the Lions are road chalk. The Lions haven’t been favored during their last 23 road games.
It’s not that the Lions are supposed to be any good. They aren’t. But Atlanta is terrible. That’s why linesmakers assigned the Falcons the lowest regular-season ‘over/under’ win total at 4 ½


Rookie Matt Ryan is expected to start at quarterback for Atlanta. That could be a factor why early money has moved Detroit from minus one to a field goal favorite.
“I don’t agree with the move,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “I don’t think Detroit should be laying three on the road to any team.”

Currently the Packers are minus three and even 2 ½ at some places.
“That doesn’t surprise me,” Seba said about the Packers being less than a field goal favorite at Lambeau Field.
“There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I’d hate to be him

[Scottywins]

Kramer, are you going to post your picks each week based on your angles?

You seem to do alot of research on these and I would like to see what you chose as your "definites" out of all these angles.

Good luck to you.

[Stringer Bell]

Thanks for the info Kramer, my pool starts this week and these angles are ones that I have not considered. So far, (early instincts) I have:

Washington +3.5
Cincy -1.5
Buffalo -1.5
Miami +3.5
KC +16.5
Atl +3.5
NO -3.5
Jax -2.5
Pitt -6.5 (over my Texans)
Philly -7.5
Ari -2.5
Carolina +9.5
Dallas -5.5
Chicago +9.5
Minn +3.5
Oak +3.5

Anyone have any thoughts one way or another?

This is my first year in the pool and I am relatively new to this, any advice would be appreciated.

[Chicken Feed]

Wow Kramer, nice homework!! Good luck to you.
Scottywins, Hello neighbor. I'm near hwy 18 and TT.

[white_tiger]

Thanks for info.

[NFLMAN]

Well done Kramer, you bring me plenty of food for thought.

I have used the query matrix page at Killer Sports for years and years ago I compiled a list like yours. These days I use it sparingly to analyze a pointspread. However, I have learned that the real bread and butter cannot be found on any commercially accessible matrix. The cream of the trends are the ones that involve the positions. Coaches first game as away favorite, QBs first game as home dog, etc.

Which brings me to week one of this year and the game where my own positional player trend that I am thinking of is short, sweet, ripened and ready for picking (QBs making their first regular season NFL start in week one, which although the side play is worn, the point total play is, as I said ripe) and it concurs with at least one very substantial statistical trend that combined with information of the defensive growth of the two teams involved and has already spurred the wiseguys in Vegas to drive the line down from 45 to 41

The pick is: DETROIT/ATLANTA UNDER 41

...and I have a major money move on it already

[NFLMAN]

Originally Posted by Kramer

MANY TOTALS ARE ALSO SET LOW DUE TO A # OF NEW QB'S THIS YEAR,
AND FIRST GAME ... ( MIA,NYJ,ATL,OAK HALF NEW,BUF FAIRLY NEW ,
CLE 1 YR,KC ,ETC)

I'll turn you on to another trick...

Some of those QBs are veterans and some are rookies, and there are different trends for each type

[d107]

Originally Posted by NFLMAN

The pick is: DETROIT/ATLANTA UNDER 41

Love this play

[jaguilar]

thanks for the angles kramer!

[Scottywins]

Originally Posted by Chicken Feed

Wow Kramer, nice homework!! Good luck to you.
Scottywins, Hello neighbor. I'm near hwy 18 and TT.

Wow dude. Right up the road from you on Summit Ave.

Good luck to you!

[Chicken Feed]

Originally Posted by Scottywins

Wow dude. Right up the road from you on Summit Ave.

Good luck to you!

Man, small world....Thanks and good luck to you too!!