Week 1 PreSeason Trends : ...

[Kramer]

Thursday August 7/2008

New York Giants @ Detroit Lions

The Giants are 4-16 ATS L/20 on turf.
The G-Men are 3-9 ATS L/12 against conference opponents.
Giants have failed to cover 8 of their 12 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.
HC Coughlin of the Giants has gone over in 9 of their L/10 exhibition games against conference opposition.

The Lions are 3-10 ATS L/10 as home favorites of 3 points or less. Detroit have gone over in 6 of their L/7 home games with a total of between 32.5 and 35 points .

Detroit has come up short in its last six as favorites and in six of its last eight overall ATS under coach Rod Marinelli
Rod Marinelli is 2-0 in preseason Week 1 games.

Since 2002, the Lions have surrendered an average of 20 PPG, while struggling to keep its head above water by finding the end zone for 16.7 PPG in preseason play. The Giants have had a closer point difference of +0.2, scoring 18.7 PPG and allowing 18.5 PPG during the same six-year period (all in preseason play).
New York is 4-1 on the ‘under’ in its last five preseason road games, while Detroit is 4-2 on the ‘under’ in its last six preseason home games.
The home ‘dog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven Thursday contests




New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
The Jets are 23-10 ATS in their L/33 with a line of +3 to -3.
New York are 9-4 ATS as 3 point or less underdog since 1993.
Cleveland has gone under in 7 of the L/8 conference opponents.
Browns are 16-7 ATS L/23 home pre-season games.
The New York Jets have been one of the best bets on the board as dogs, getting the biscuit at a 29-17 pace

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

The Ravens have covered 11 of their 18 as pre-season underdogs.
Baltimore has gone under in 6 of their L/7 games with a line of 35 or less. The Patriots are 14-6 L/22 as home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Pats have gone under 3 straight times, against AFC north division opposition.

New England has gone under in 14 of their L/17 in their first two games of the pre-season since 1993, with the average combined score ringing in at 29.1 PPG.


New England coach Bill Belichick always believes in putting the pedal to the metal. The Patriots have 'covered' 19 of their last 27 August home battles and 21 of their last 32 as favorites.

The defending AFC champs have also cashed five straight opening week encounters. Baltimore has ducked 'under' in 29 of 44 during the opening month of pre-season and New England has followed suit in 14 of 17 during the first two weeks

Bill Belichick is 6-3 in preseason Week 1 games


Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears

Kansas City is 2-10 ATS L/12 as road underdogs of 3 points or less. Chiefs have gone under in 6 of their L/7 pre-season games. Chicago has gone under in 5 of their L/6 preseason games against AFC west foes. Bears have failed to cover 12 of their L/20 as favorites.


Chicago has failed in five of its last six as home favorites and at a 13-18-2 clip as chalk overall. Kansas City is just 14-20 as underdogs and it has stumbled at a 1-6-1 rate in its last eight games under coach Herm Edwards

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals


For starters, the Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in the last seven Game One’s and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 first home games during the preseason. Complimenting these trends is the Saints 1-6 SU and ATS record in their last seven preseason Game One’s and a 4-1 record on the ‘under’ in their last five preseason Game One’s.
With Arizona installed as a small two-point home favorite by most book, it should be noted that the club is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 preseason contests. The ‘over’ has been a successful
wager with the Cards going 5-1 ober Last 6 preseason games

Saints are 16-4 ATS L/20 in a road game with a total of 35.5 to 38. points.New Orleans is 22-10 ATS L/32 on the road. Arizona is 11-8 ATS L/19 against conference opposition. The Cardinals have failed to cover 5 of their L/8 exhibition tilts overall.


New Orleans is expected to sit out starters Marques Colston (WR), newly acquired Jeremy Shockey (TE) Devery Henderson (WR) and injury plagued running back Deuce McAllister. Anticipate second and third tier players (especially on offense) to receive major playing time right off the bat. In-fact the latest report coming out of Saints’ training camp is that at least nine regular starters will be taking a seat on the bench without pads.
The Cardinals could be looking at a leg up on their opponents in the QB position. With slinger Matt Leinart looking to take limited snaps, expect veteran Kurt Warner to finish at least the first-half of the game. Remember that Warner finished ’07 with an 89.8 QB rating, throwing for 3,417 yard with 27 TDs

Friday August 8/2008

Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Eagles have failed to cover 20 of their L/29 with a line of between -3 and +3. The Eagles on the road are 1-9 ATS L/10 in the first two weeks of the pre-season. Philly has failed to cover 7 of their L/10 on the road as an underdog of 3 point or less.

The Steelers have gone under in 8 of their L/9 pre-season games, with the average combined score clicking in at 27.2 PPG. Six of the last 9 meetings in this series have gone over the total.
Philadelphia will be looking to avenge a 27-13 pre-season loss at Pittsburgh in 2007. The Eagles are 1-9 ATS on the road during the first two weeks and 13-19-2 as underdogs. Four of the past five tussles in the Steel City have topped the 'total.' However, the Steelers have been on the low side in eight of their last nine exhibition encounters
Andy Reid is 13-23 in preseason games.
Andy Reid is 3-7 in preseason Week 1 games.
Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in preseason games


Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings

The Seahawks have gone over the total in 6 of their L/8 games and have gone over in 7 of their L/9 against NFC North division opposition. Seattle has gone over in 4 straight road games.

Minnesota is 6-3 ATS in their L/3 home games at home of -3 or less. The Vikings have gone under 4 of their L/4 games with a total of 35 or less.Seattle has covered 4 of the L/6preseason meetings in this series.


Seattle spanked Minnesota at home last year, 30-13. Minnesota had come away with the money in four of the previous five pre-season showdowns. The Seahawks are 24-17-1 as pre-season pups. Five of the last six series battles have eclipsed the 'total.' Seattle has been on the high side in six of its last seven games.
Mike Holmgren is 7-4 in preseason Week 1 games.
Brad Childress is 0-2 in preseason Week 1 games

Seattle spanked Minnesota at home last year, 30-13. Minnesota had come away with the money in four of the previous five pre-season showdowns. The Seahawks are 24-17-1 as pre-season pups.

Five of the last six series battles have eclipsed the 'total.' Seattle has been on the high side in six of its last seven games.

49 ers @ Oakland Raiders

The 49ers have failed to cover 5 of their L/7 as road underdogs of 3 points or less and have gone under in 6 of their 7 using the same line parameters. Oakland has covered 4 straight home games. San Francisco is 6-1 ATS L/7 pre-season games in this series. These teams have gone under 7 of the L/9 meetings.
San Francisco has won six of its last nine against Oakland and 'covered' six of seven. The 49ers came out on top last year at home, 26-21. San Francisco has ducked 'under' in its last seven Friday fracases

Saturday 9/2008

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins

Bills have gone under in 26 of their L/37 non conference games.
Buffalo has covered 4 straight road games.
Washington has failed to cover 14 of their L/20 games against AFC east division opposition.
Washington has the edge here, coming off last Sunday's Hall of Fame Game against Indianapolis. Buffalo has cashed five straight during the opening week and four of its last five against NFC opposition. The Bills have slipped 'under' in four of their last five games and in four straight during the first week of play.
The Bills may be looking ahead to home away from home Toronto


Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers

Indy has gone over in 20 of their L/27 August games . Carolina has gone under in 6 straight non conference games.The Panthers have failed to cover 4 of their L/6 as favorites.
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in Week 1 of the preseason.
The Panthers 7-9 record last year didn't sit well
with head coach John Fox.
Indianapolis had dropped 16 of 25 SU and failed to 'cover' 10 of 13 prior to its trip to Canton. The Colts had also been on the high side in 21 of 28 road tests in August. Carolina has dropped seven of its last nine as favorites,
Tony Dungy is 9-16 in preseason games.
Tony Dungy is 2-5 in preseason Week 1 games.
John Fox is 16-8 in preseason games.
John Fox is 5-2 in preseason Week 1 games.

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Falcons are 9-4 ATS in all games where the total is 35 or less. Atlanta is 4-2 ATS L/6 in non conference games. Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS L/6 non conference games and have covered 6 of their L/8 exhibition contests overall. The Jags have gone over in 5 of their L/7 overall games and have gone over in 14 of their L/21 with a total of 35 or more.Atlanta has covered 2 of the L/3 meetings as visitors in this series.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins

The Buccaneers have gone under in 26 of their 36 with a total of 35 or less, and have also gone under in 13 of their L/17 games in the first two weeks of the pre-season. Tampa Bay has covered 7 of their L/11 as 3 point road underdog or less. The Dolphins have gone over in 3 straight exhibition home games. These teams ave gone under in 11 of the L/14 meetings.
These Bucs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their first exhibition
game of the season thepast 4 years and you can
count on the fact that he’ll want his team to open the
exhibition season off with another victory, especially
against a Dolphins squad
that ended last year with the
NFL’s worst record at 1-15.


While Tampa Bay doesn’t
have a great starting quarterback, they’ll be rotating between
four solid veterans, Jeff Garcia, Luke McCown, Brian Griese and
Chris Simms. On the other hand, the Dolphins are coming off
that 1-win season and need to rebuild at almost every position
on both sides of the ball.


Tampa Bay has 'covered' five of seven at Miami. The Bucs are 20-12-3 as underdogs while the Dolphins are 15-23-2 as favorites. Tampa Bay has knuckled 'under' at a 26-10 clip when the total is 35 or less and it has stayed below the limit in 13 of 17 during the first two weeks

Jon Gruden is 27-15 in preseason games.
Jon Gruden is 7-0 in preseason Week 1 games

St Louis Rams @ Tennessee Titans

Rams have failed to cover 4 straight as underdogs. St.Louis is 1-6 ATS in their L/7 vs non conference opposition. Tennessee is 17-7 ATS L/24 with a line of -3 to +3. The Titans have gone under in 18 of their L/23 home games. Titans have won the L/3 meetings in this series straight up.

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans

The Broncos have failed to cover 11 of the L/18 against conference opposition. Denver has gone under in 22 of their L/32 pre-season road games . Texans has failed to cover 15 of their L/24 games,but are more positive 5-2 ATS L/7. Houston has gone over in 6 of their L/8 overall. Broncos have dominated this pre-season matchup winning 4 straight SU while covering 3 of those tilts.

Denver has thrived when playing on Saturday, getting the cheese in 22 of 29 chances. Houston has come up short at a 1-4-1 clip in its last six as favorites. The Broncos have dipped 'under' in 14 of 17 Saturday road games and in 22 of 32 overall on the highway during August. Conversely, the Texans have tipped 'over' in six of their last eight under Coach Gary Kubiak
Mike Shanahan is 39-17 in preseason games.
Mike Shanahan is 10-4 in preseason Week 1 games.
Gary Kubiak is 5-3 in preseason games. Gary Kubiak is 1-1 in preseason Week 1 games

Dallas Cowboys @ San Diego Chargers

Dallas has failed to cover 14 of their L/22 road games. The Cowboys have gone over in 3 of their L/4 road games. Dallas has failed to cover 15 of their 23 in their first two week s of the pre-season. Chargers have gone over in 32 of their L/49 non conference games, with the average combined score clicking in at 40.2 PPG.

San Diego is 18-12-1 as favorites, but just 1-6 ATS during opening week.
Dallas is a dismal 5-18 ATS in the first two weeks of play. The Chargers have zipped 'over' in five of their last six outings and in 32 of 49 against a non-conference foe.
Wade Phillips is 4-1 in preseason Week 1 games.
Norv Turner is 1-2 in preseason Week 1 games w/Chargers, Raiders.


Monday August 11/2008

Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers The Bengals have failed to cover 11 of their 16 on a natural surface. Cincinnati has gone over in 5 of their L/7 August games.Packers have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference games, but are 6-3 ATS against AFC North division foes.Cincinnati beat Green Bay in their lone pre-season game since 93, by a lopsided 48-17 count back in 2006.
Green Bay has slipped below the total in seven straight early or week one clashes.

NFL Preseason Records (2003-2007)



Team SU ATS O/U Home Away Fav Dog APF APA
Arizona 10-10 11-9 10-9 5-5 6-4 2-5 9-4 18.7 20.1
Atlanta 11-10 10-10 12-9 5-4 5-6 4-4 6-6 18.1 18.2
Baltimore 9-11 9-11 6-14 5-5 4-6 7-7 2-4 16.3 14.3
Buffalo 9-11 11-9 8-12 4-6 7-3 3-7 8-2 17.8 20.9
Carolina 15-5 11-8 10-10 5-4 6-4 5-7 6-1 18.3 12.8
Chicago 11-10 7-12 10-11 3-7 5-5 2-6 5-6 17.7 17.1
Cincinnati 10-10 11-8 10-10 7-2 4-6 5-3 6-5 21.7 18.1
Cleveland 12-8 13-7 6-14 7-3 6-4 5-4 8-3 17.0 18.0
Dallas 13-6 14-6 10-10 8-2 6-4 9-5 5-1 19.9 14.8
Denver 14-7 12-9 10-11 5-5 7-4 8-8 4-1 21.4 15.0
Detroit 8-12 6-14 9-9 4-6 2-8 2-6 4-8 16.5 19.0
Green Bay 8-13 9-12 7-14 4-6 4-7 3-3 6-9 15.2 21.8
Houston 7-13 7-12 12-8 4-5 3-7 1-4 6-8 16.3 22.0
Indianapolis 7-14 8-11 12-9 3-7 5-5 5-7 3-4 17.8 22.5
Jacksonville 13-6 13-6 9-9 6-3 7-3 6-5 7-1 19.6 16.3
Kansas City 6-15 6-15 7-12 4-6 2-9 4-6 2-9 15.5 18.7
Miami 9-12 8-11 10-10 4-5 4-6 3-6 5-5 17.9 16.9
Minnesota 10-9 11-9 11-9 5-5 6-4 5-4 6-5 20.8 18.0
New England 11-9 11-7 8-12 6-4 6-2 7-5 4-2 21.7 17.3
New Orleans 8-13 8-13 9-10 2-8 6-5 1-6 7-7 15.6 18.9
NY Giants 10-10 11-9 8-12 6-4 5-5 4-3 7-6 18.4 19.3
NY Jets 14-7 11-10 9-11 5-5 6-5 5-6 6-4 19.5 13.7
Oakland 11-10 8-12 7-14 6-4 2-8 6-7 2-5 17.1 15.1
Philadelphia 8-13 10-11 12-9 5-5 5-6 5-6 5-5 17.5 22.0
Pittsburgh 10-11 9-12 9-12 5-5 4-7 5-8 4-4 17.8 15.7
San Diego 11-9 10-10 12-8 5-5 5-5 6-5 4-5 20.7 17.8
San Francisco 8-12 11-8 9-11 7-2 4-6 5-2 6-6 18.2 21.6
Seattle 12-8 11-9 11-9 5-5 6-4 6-4 5-5 20.1 17.9
St. Louis 8-12 8-12 9-11 5-5 3-7 6-4 2-8 16.9 18.7
Tampa Bay 13-8 12-7 11-10 7-3 5-4 9-3 3-4 20.9 15.0
Tennessee 12-8 13-7 9-11 5-5 8-2 8-5 5-2 20.3 17.3
Washington 7-14 9-12 7-14 5-5 4-7 3-6 6-6 12.5 18.6
SU= Straight Up | ATS = Against the Spread | O/U = Over/Under | Home = Home ATS | Away = Away ATS
Fav = Favorite | Dog = Underdog | APF = Average Points For | APA = Average Points Against