Week 1 Winners + Losers How to Bet Into Week 2 : ...

[Kramer]

WEK ONE WINNERS/LOSERS

FADE OR FOLLOW WHICH?

BY STEVE MAKINEN

Before digging into some of the successful angles, let’s think about why there might be such distinctive betting patterns formed in just seven days?

First off, America loves sensationalism. The public, and more specifically the betting public in this case, loves glorified results.

It expects what it just saw and looks for it to happen again the next time out. At the same time, it’s also commonly believed that the attention span of this same group is short.


Going into this study of Week 2 Carryover Angles, I’ll be honest, I expected much different results. In fact, it would seem that the public is right on when it comes to looking at what happens between Week 1 and Week 2 of a NFL season.

I fully expected to see results that indicated 1) the chances for bouncebacks by the poor teams were good and 2) the teams that rolled in their first game would come back down to earth. No such luck.

In fact, if things didn’t get worse or better for those teams respectively, they generally at least stayed the same.
Whether you like to admit that you follow the “public way of thinking” in sports betting or not, the results I uncovered were worth the effort so I encourage you to read on.

You’ll see from some of the angles described below that much of it seems to center around the second week home team’s defensive effort in the first game.

If that unit dominated, the hosts are a good bet for week two.

Alternatively, if it struggled in week one, get your money down on the road teams as fast you can reach the betting window.


Before getting started, it’s important to point out the criteria I used to consider a week one score “sensational”.

For the most part, I looked for teams that either scored or allowed single-digit points, or on the other end 35 & higher.

I also looked for the point margin in the games, specifically focusing on blowout games of 20 points or more, and close games decided by a field goal or less.


These are numerous different systems to use in filling out your week two NFL betting lineup. For each one, I’ve listed the qualifiers for evaluating this coming weekend’s games. Note that the data used for examining these trends were taken over the last 11 seasons, or 1997-2007.


Home Teams Winning or Losing Close Game in Week 1
- Home teams in week 2 that won their opening game by three or less points are 12-7 ATS (63%).
Plays for ‘08: Carolina


- Home teams that lost the opener by a field goal or less are 6-12 ATS (33%) in their week 2 game.
Plays for ‘08: NONE


Road Teams Winning or Losing Close Game in Week 1
- Road teams in week 2 that lost their opening game by three or less points are 11-7 ATS (61%).
Plays for ‘08: San Diego


Home Teams Winning or Losing a Blowout Game in Week 1
- Home teams that won by 20 or more points in week 1 are 8-2 ATS (80%) in week 2.
Plays for ‘08: Denver


Home Teams Winning or Losing a Double-Digit Game in Week 1
- Home teams that lost the opener by a double-digit margin are 14-22 ATS (39%) in their week 2 game.
Plays for ‘08: AGAINST Detroit, AGAINST St. Louis, AGAINST Seattle, AGAINST Houston, AGAINST Cleveland


Home or Road Team Scoring Differential from Week 1 Results
- Road teams with a scoring differential of over 30 points better from week 1 than the home team are 12-5 ATS (71%) in week 2.
Plays for ‘08: NY Giants, Buffalo, Pittsburgh


- Home teams with a week 1 scoring differential advantage of 25 points or more than the road team are 12-2 ATS (86%) in the second game.
Plays for ‘08: Denver


Home Teams That Scored or Allowed Less than 10 Points in Week 1
- Home teams that allowed fewer than 10 points in their first game are 11-5 ATS (67%) in the week 2 contest, including 5-0 ATS as double-digit favorites.
Plays for ‘08: NONE


Home Teams That Scored or Allowed 35 or more Points in Week 1
- Home teams that allowed more than 35 points in their first game are 2-14 ATS (13%) in the week 2 contest, including 0-4 ATS (0%) as an underdog.
Plays for ‘08: AGAINST St. Louis, AGAINST Houston


Road Teams That Scored or Allowed more than 35 Points in Week 1
- Week 2 road teams that scored more than 35 points in their opening contest are just 6-10 ATS (38%).
Plays for ‘08: AGAINST Pittsburgh, AGAINST Philadelphia


Combo Angle – Road Team Allowed 10 Points or less and Home Team Scored 10 or less in Week 1
- Road teams that allowed 10 or fewer points in week 1 are 6-3-1 ATS (67%) in week 2 when facing an opponent who scored 10 or fewer in its opening contest.
Plays for ‘08: NY Giants


Combo Angle – Home Team Allowed 10 Points or less and Road Team Scored less than 20 in Week 1
- Home teams that allowed 10 or fewer points in week 1 are 9-2 ATS (82%) in week 2 when matched against an opponent who scored less than 20 in its opening contest.
Plays for ‘08: NONE


Combo Angle – Home Team Allowed 35 Points or more and Road Team Scored more than 14 in Week 1
- Home teams that allowed 35 or more points in week 1 are 2-11 ATS (15%) in week 2 when matched against an opponent who scored more than 14 points in its opening contest.
Plays for ‘08: AGAINST St Louis, AGAINST Houston


Home Underdogs in Week 2
- Home underdogs in week 2 that are matched against an opponent that scored more than 35 points in week 1 are 6-3 ATS (67%).
Plays for ‘08: Cleveland


- Home underdogs in week 2 going up against an opponent who yielded less than 17 points in its opening game are just 7-10 ATS (41%)
Plays for ‘08: AGAINST Cincinnati, AGAINST St Louis


Week 2 Road Underdogs
- Road underdogs in the second week of the NFL season facing an opponent who allowed less than 10 points in its opening game are 4-10 ATS (29%)
Plays for ‘08: NONE


In all, we have 16 week 2 NFL pointspread carryover angles with success rates of 61% or better, or 41% or worse. Twelve of these systems have a qualifying play for 2008.

Just "one" more handicapping tool to
add for your week 2 betting ...

We’ll see how they hold up.
Here’s to a great weekend of NFL betting!

[Seanie Mac]

nice work

giants lined up real well from what i read