Week 10 by Chris Schultz

[Lukester]

Week 10 Picks by Chris Scultz of TSN:
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Chicago San Francisco (-3.0) Schultz Picks: San Francisco:
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CHI 6 SF 10.
San Francisco Wins.
The Bears have one more win this season but I sense the 49ers are more on the rise. This is the first Thursday night game of the year and it's always an advantage to the home team and this week, it's the 49ers. You have the extra day of preparation and not having to travel gives you extra time to get emotionally ready for a mid-week game. The Bears defence is in trouble. The Arizona Cardinals beat the Bears 41-21 last week and scored on their first six possessions with four touchdowns and two field goals. Arizona didn't punt until the 5:38 mark of the third quarter. For San Francisco, the lost balance in play-calling (18 running plays to 51 passing plays) is not the way Mike Singletary wants to win football games. And yes, as a former dominant middle linebacker during his playing years in Chicago, he would love to beat his former team.



Buffalo Tennessee (-6.5) Schultz Picks: Tennessee:
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Vince Young seems to have found his confidence again. He has not been spectacular; just efficient. As a two-game starter, he has completed 27 of 42 passes for 297 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Those numbers look like one game for some QBs but what is spectacular is Tennessee's running game. You can make an argument that Chris Johnson is the best running back in all of football. This is the beginning of Week 10 and he already has 959 yards with an amazing 6.7 per carry average. The Bills are only converting 26% of their 3rd down opportunities and have had less than 10 first downs in two straight games.



New Orleans (-13.5) St. Louis Schultz Picks: New Orleans:
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The Rams finally won their first game of the year, 17-10 over Detroit. Now coming off the bye week, they play the NFL's best offence and maybe the best quarterback in Drew Brees. The Saints have scored at least 24points in every game and the Rams have allowed 23 points in every game but two. And they only have seven touchdowns in eight games this season.



Tampa Bay Miami (-9.5) Schultz Picks: Miami:
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Josh Freeman will get his second NFL start. His first one went very well as he completed 14 of 31 passes for 205 yards with three touchdowns and just one interception. But now the Dolphins have an entire game film on him and the Wildcat offence continues to develop with Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and now Pat White. At the beginning of the season, I thought the Wildcat would fade but it is a real NFL alternative to tradition and nobody can execute it better than Miami.



Detroit Minnesota (-16.0) Schultz Picks: Minnesota:
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This is 1-7 playing at the home of 7-1 and the Lions have lost 11 in a row at the Metrodome. With Minnesota coming off the bye week, they will be physically ready to go. With three straight games at home, the Vikings could have its 10th win before December. Back in Week 2, Minnesota beat Detroit, 27-13 at Ford Field and the Lions were leading 10-0 at one point. But Brett Favre has an excellent TD-INT ratio of 16-3 and two of them were in the Pittsburgh game, their only loss.



Jacksonville NY Jets (-6.5) Schultz Picks: NY Jets:
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Both teams are 4-4 but the Jets seem more like a possible playoff team. This will be the third straight road game for Jacksonville while the Jets are coming off their bye week which is a big advantage for them. Rex Ryan's goal at the beginning of the season was to have a dominant ground game to take the pressure off rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. He's definitely done that as the Jets are the NFL's best, averaging 177 yards per game. The Jaguars also have an excellent running game with Maurice Jones-Drew, who presently has 737 yards with an average of 5.1 per carry. Two of Jacksonville's last wins have been over St. Louis and Kansas City and the Jets coming off the bye week are a much better team.



Cincinnati Pittsburgh (-6.5) Schultz Picks: Cincinnati:
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Too many points. With both teams being 6-2, it is more likely this will be a field goal game, not a separation of seven points. The Bengals are for real. Within the division, they have beaten Baltimore twice and Pittsburgh once back in Week 3. If Cincinnati wins, they control the AFC North. And the Steelers are back. Against Denver, the Broncos did not have one first down running the football. Pittsburgh totally controlled the line of scrimmage. But with Carson Palmer, the Bengals have been able to go 3-0 on the road so far. Winning the close games is why they are 6-2 right now. This is a statement game for both teams so I can't see either team being dominated.



Denver (-4.5) Washington Schultz Picks: Denver:
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The Broncos were humbled a little bit on Monday night, losing 28-10 to Pittsburgh at home. They had no first downs running the ball and only 12 in total. The one aspect of football they were best at, ball security, was absent in that game. With the previous loss to Baltimore, Denver needs a big bounce back and the timing of Washington on their schedule is perfect. The Redskins also have three key injuries to RB Clinton Portis (concussion), S Chris Horton (foot) and RT Mike Williams (ankle). Times are tough in Washington.



Atlanta Carolina (-1.5) Schultz Picks: Atlanta:
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The Falcons beat Carolina 28-20 back in Week 2. With a win in this game, Atlanta will take a strong step toward a possible Wildcard playoff berth. Michael Turner has run for 317 yards in the last two games. The only teams that Carolina has beaten are Washington, Tampa Bay and a surprise win in Arizona. But that was also the game that Kurt Wrner threw five interceptions and fumbled once.



Kansas City Oakland (-1.5) Schultz Picks: Oakland:
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The raiders are coming off the bye week with two wins, including one over Kansas City in Week 2. Kansas City lost to Jacksonville last week and have only one win this season over Washington. It is tough to have faith in Oakland. JaMarcus Russell has a passer rating of 48.3 with two touchdowns, nine interceptions and six fumbles. On defence, the raiders are allowing 161 yards on the ground. This game will probably be like the last game with neither team dominating and one team winning by a field goal.



Philadelphia San Diego (-2.5) Schultz Picks: San Diego:
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The last time Philadelphia travelled to California to play football, they lost to Oakland, 13-9. Now they play a Chargers team that has won three in a row and continues to get great leadership from QB Philip Rivers, who has 11 4th quarter victories. The Eagles have little but extremely fast receivers in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The Chargers have giants in Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd. I like the giants to make life easier for Rivers. I see touchdown after touchdown but in the end, Rivers gets his 12th 4th quarter victory.



Seattle Arizona (-8.0) Schultz Picks: Arizona:
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It seems like the Cardinals are really getting it together. They have already beaten the Seahawks in Seattle (27-3) and scored on their first six possessions against the Bears in Chicago last week. Also, the cardinals have won the past three games by an average of 13.3 points. Detroit beat Seattle, 32-20 last week and if you go back over the last month Seattle has been dominated by Dallas and Indianapolis. If you have an explosive offence, you can score on Seattle. And Arizona has an explosive offence.



Dallas Green Bay Schultz Picks: Dallas:
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After the way Dallas played in beating Philadelphia last week, I was surprised to see the Packers as the favourite in this game. Tony Romo may be playing his best football right now. Until last week, he went 143 passes without an interception. He is playing with a level of confidence not seen for a long time. Aaron Rodgers's problem is his lack of protection. He has been sacked 37 times this year, three more times than the entire 2008 season. Minnesota scored 38 points in Green Bay and Cincinnati scored 31. Dallas has the talent to do the same.



New England Indianapolis (-3.0) Schultz Picks: New England:
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This is the game of the week here in Week 10. On offence, both teams are remarkably explosive. Tom Brady has a QB rating of 99.2 over eight games and Brady to Moss has already produced five touchdowns. As good as their competition has been, Peyton Manning has a QB rating of 105.1 and Manning to Wayne has produced six majors. And Brady and Manning have an identical TD-INT ratio (16-5). But the Colts have lost their two starting cornerbacks and their strong safety Bob Sanders to injury. New England should be able to take advantage of the Colts' youth on Sunday night. If the Patriots pass protect, they should win.




Baltimore (-10.5) Cleveland Schultz Picks: Baltimore:
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What was at one time one of the best rush defences in football, going 39 games without allowing a 100-yard rusher, has allowed three in the last four games. All of the Ravens' losses have been competitive and the games could have gone either way. Now they play Cleveland, which has a quarterback in Brady Quinn with a lower QB rating than JaMarcus Russell. And they are 6-31 on 3rd down conversions. In the last four games, the Browns have scored 6, 3, 14 and 3 points. Even though they are coming off the bye week, I can't see instantaneous improvement.



Through 130 games, Chris Schultz is 78-50-2 against the spread.

[letsdoit]

thanks luke. lots of good info.