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#1
11-03-2008, 06:59 PM
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Week 10 Info...
LAS VEGAS – It’s easy to fade the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck this week.
Just be careful. Double-digit favorites are 2-13 against the spread in the NFL this season, according to VegasInsider.com's closing line figures. San Diego already is a whooping two-touchdown home favorite against the Chiefs, while the Raiders and Seahawks could close 10-point underdogs before their Sunday kickoffs. The spot isn’t good for Kansas City, off consecutive narrow losses against the New York Jets and Tampa Bay in overtime. The Chargers, on the other hand, were idle last week. Advertisement The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants recommended an opening line of San Diego minus 13 ½. The Chargers currently are minus 14. That’s too high of a number says LVSC linesmaker Mike Seba. “You just can’t lay 14 no matter what team you are playing,” Seba said. “Fourteen is like a barrier. You don’t want to go past that barrier.” Miami is minus 9 ½ hosting Seattle. The Seahawks not only could be without Hasselbeck again, but also key defensive players Patrick Kerney and Lofa Tatupu. Both missed Sunday’s home loss to Philadelphia with injuries. The Seahawks are making their third cross-country trip of the season. They’ve lost at Buffalo, the New York Giants and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 98-26. “There’s no way any one is going to bet Seattle,” Seba said. “I could see that game closing 10.” People aren’t exactly standing in line waiting to beat Oakland either. Al Davis’ knack for turning potential talent into mush was on full display Sunday when Atlanta held Oakland to 77 yards in a 24-0 whitewash. The Raiders are nine-point home underdogs to Carolina. LVSC opened the Panthers low at minus 7 ½. “I don’t have a problem with sending out a road team at 7 ½ instead of nine,” Seba said. “Look at what happened to Jacksonville and Tampa Bay both laying more than a touchdown on the road Sunday. “The problem with a good team laying big points on the road is they know how weak their opponent is and they’re not as focused as they should be.” So the house would rather have an inflated home ‘dog working for them, especially knowing if the line gets too high professional bettors are going to get involved taking the points. The problem with going ugly, though, is getting behind awful quarterbacks such as Seattle’s Seneca Wallace and Oakland’s JaMarcus Russell. Neither quarterback has a distinguished cast of wide receivers to make their jobs easier and the Raiders have a bad offensive line, too. There’s a chance Week 10 could feature five double-digit favorites. The New York Jets currently are minus nine hosting St. Louis and Arizona is minus 9 ½ hosting San Francisco on Monday night. It’s weird to see the Cardinals favored by such a large margin. But Kurt Warner is putting together an MVP-type season, Arizona’s defense is making big plays and rookie running back Tim Hightower provided a ground spark last week, which the team wasn’t getting from veteran Edgerrin James. Is it enough for the Cardinals to roll past what looks to be an overmatched 49ers squad? “This is another case of be careful with a double-digit favorite,” Seba said. “The 49ers are off a bye, have a new coach (Mike Singletary) and new quarterback (Shaun Hill). That should make them more competitive.” If ever the 49ers want to show something, this is their chance making their lone national television appearance.
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................................... Article 11 of the Italian Constitution says: "Italy rejects war as an instrument of aggression against the freedoms of others peoples and as a means for settling international controversies; it agrees, on conditions of equality with other states, to the limitations of sovereignty necessary for an order that ensures peace and justice among Nations; it promotes and encourages international organizations having such ends in view". 
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#2
11-03-2008, 07:00 PM
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so its ok to lay -13.5 to the chiefs but not 14 ?
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#3
11-03-2008, 07:10 PM
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thats right, cause 13.5 your 2 scores (possessions) from losing, at 14 you have to have 3 (possessions) scores against you to lose. HUGE!
thx for the info waxer!
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2012 MLB 65 - 48 - 15 -.0.24 2012 NCAA Baseball 10 - 7 +0.56
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#4
11-03-2008, 07:12 PM
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lol doesn't make sense
I bet if you run % teams that cover 13.5 would cover 14 too, and it would cost money in the long run to buy half off of 14 to 13.5
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#5
11-03-2008, 07:18 PM
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we weren't talking about buying 1/2
btw, BJ has Chargers -15, i will stay away, Chiefs really due for a blowout on the road. that -15 feels like sucker time to me dragging in all the big line peeps, 11-13.5 is different, when we get over 14 the favorite has a tendancy to cover i believe.... havent ran no prior data, 
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2012 MLB 65 - 48 - 15 -.0.24 2012 NCAA Baseball 10 - 7 +0.56 Last edited by duckster; 11-03-2008 at 07:19 PM.
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#6
11-03-2008, 07:25 PM
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Quote:
( no add'l categories) 1998-2008 31-42-2 (42.5%)
__________________
You Can't Win , If You're Afraid To lose don't take life too serious. None of us gets out alive .. GIDDY UP
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#7
11-03-2008, 07:26 PM
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Quote:
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#8
11-03-2008, 07:28 PM
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Quote:
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#9
11-03-2008, 07:51 PM
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Previous qualifying games
Date Matchup Final Score ATS Outcome Oct 4 1998 Philadelphia Eagles@Denver Broncos -15½ Broncos 41-16 COVER Oct18 1998 Wash Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings -13½ Vikings 41-7 COVER Oct 18 1998 Ind Colts @ San Francisco 49ers -18 49ers 34-31 No cover Nov 8 1998 New Orl Saints @ Minnesota Vikings -14 Vikings 31-24 No cover Nov 8 1998 Carolina Panthers @ San Fran49ers -13½ 49ers 25-23 No cover Nov 8 1998 San Diego Chargers @ Den Broncos -16 Broncos 27-10 COVER Nov 29 1998 Phil Eagles @ Green Bay Packers -18 Packers 24-16 No cover Dec 6 1998 K City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos -13½ Broncos 35-31 No cover Dec 6 1998 Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings -16 Vikings 48-22 COVER Dec 13 1998 Chicago Bears @ G Bay Packers -13½ Packers 26-20 No cover Dec 20 1998 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Min Vikings -13½ Vikings 50-10 COVER Sep 19 1999 Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans -16 Titans 26-9 COVER Oct 17 1999 Cleve Browns @ Jacks Jaguars -17½ Jaguars 24-7 No cover Oct 24 1999 Cleveland Browns @ St Louis Rams -18½ Rams 34-3 COVER Nov 7 1999 Cini Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks -14 Seahawks 37-20 COVER Nov 14 1999 Cleve Browns @ Pitts Steelers -14½ Browns 16-15 No cover Nov 28 1999 New Orleans Saints @ St Louis Rams -14 Rams 43-12 COVER Nov 28 1999 San D Chargers @ MinnVikings -13½ Vikings 35-27 No cover Sep 17 2000 San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams -17 Rams 41-24 Push Oct 1 2000 San Diego Chargers @ St Louis Rams -17 Rams 57-31 COVER Oct 15 2000 Atlanta Falcons @ St Louis Rams -18 Rams 45-29 No cover Nov 5 2000 Carolina Panthers @ St L Rams -13½ Panthers 27-24 No cover Nov 19 2000 Cleveland Browns @ Tenn Titans -16 Titans 24-10 No cover Nov 26 2000 Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -15 Ravens 44-7 COVER Nov 26 2000 New Orl Saints @ St Louis Rams -13½ Saints 31-24 No cover Dec 3 2000 Cleve Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars -14½ Jaguars 48-0 COVER Dec 10 2000 Arizona Cards @ Jack Jaguars -15 Jaguars 44-10 COVER Dec 10 2000 San D Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens -13½ Ravens 24-3 COVER Dec 25 2000 Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans -13½ Titans 31-0 COVER Sep 30 2001 Dallas Cowboys @ Phil Eagles -13½ Eagles 40-18 COVER Oct 7 2001 Washington Redskins @ New York Giants -14 Giants 23-9 Push Oct 7 2001 Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles -14½ Cardinals 21-20 No cover Oct 7 2001 Dallas Cowboys @ Oakland Raiders -18 Raiders 28-21 No cover Nov 11 2001 Carolina Panthers @ St Louis Rams -18 Rams 48-14 COVER Jan 6 2002 Atlanta Falcons @ St Louis Rams -14½ Rams 31-13 COVER Sep 15 2002 Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers -13½ Chargers 24-3 COVER Sep 29 2002 Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles -19 Eagles 35-17 No cover Oct 6 2002 Cin Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts -13½ Colts 28-21 No cover Dec 8 2002 Hou Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers -14 Texans 24-6 No cover Dec 29 2002 Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos -13½ Broncos 37-7 COVER Sep 7 2003 Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins -14 Texans 21-20 No cover Dec 14 2003 Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs -14½ Chiefs 45-17 COVER Dec 21 2003 Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks -15½ Seahawks 28-10 COVER Sep 25 2005 Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts -13½ Colts 13-6 No cover Nov 13 2005 Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts -17 Colts 31-17 No cover Dec 4 2005 Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts -14 Colts 35-3 COVER Dec 11 2005 San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks -15½ Seahawks 41-3 COVER Dec 11 2005 Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers -13½ Dolphins 23-21 No cover Dec 11 2005 Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos -14 Broncos 12-10 No cover Dec 18 2005 San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars -14½ Jaguars 10-9 No cover Jan 1 2006 Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers -15½ Steelers 35-21 No cover Oct 8 2006 Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts -18 Colts 14-13 No cover Oct 15 2006 Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos -16 Broncos 13-3 No cover Oct 29 2006 San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears -16½ Bears 41-10 COVER Nov 5 2006 Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears -13½ Dolphins 31-13 No cover Nov 5 2006 Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers -13½ Chargers 32-25 No cover Dec 3 2006 Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots -13½ Patriots 28-21 No cover Dec 17 2006 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears -13½ Bears 34-31 No cover Dec 31 2006 Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys -14 Lions 39-31 No cover Dec 31 2006 Arizona Cardinals @ San Diego Chargers -14 Chargers 27-20 No cover Sep 23 2007 Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots -16½ Patriots 38-7 COVER Oct 7 2007 Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots -15½ Patriots 34-17 COVER Oct 28 2007 Wash Redskins @ New EngPatriots -14½ Patriots 52-7 COVER Nov 18 2007 Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts -14½ Colts 13-10 No cover Nov 22 2007 New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys -14½ Cowboys 34-3 COVER Nov 25 2007 Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots -24½ Patriots 31-28 No cover Nov 26 2007 Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers -16 Steelers 3-0 No cover Dec 16 2007 New York Jets @ New England Patriots -20½ Patriots 20-10 No cover Dec 23 2007 Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots -22½ Patriots 28-7 No cover Dec 23 2007 Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars -13½ Jaguars 49-11 COVER Dec 23 2007 Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks -13½ Seahawks 27-6 COVER Sep 7 2008 Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots -16 Patriots 17-10 No cover Oct 5 2008 Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys -16 Cowboys 31-22 No cover Oct 12 2008 St Louis Rams@ Washington Redskins-13½ Rams 19-17 No cover Oct 26 2008 Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets -14 Jets 28-24 No cover --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
__________________
You Can't Win , If You're Afraid To lose don't take life too serious. None of us gets out alive .. GIDDY UP
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#10
11-03-2008, 08:17 PM
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nice kramer.. thanks
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#11
11-03-2008, 08:31 PM
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this would be a nice 6 point teaser 2game cuse ....
already moved to 14.5 or 15 in some books ... so you'd move it up to 17 (2 points) , and 4 on another game you like in my opinion ...
__________________
You Can't Win , If You're Afraid To lose don't take life too serious. None of us gets out alive .. GIDDY UP
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#12
11-03-2008, 08:32 PM
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Quote:
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#13
11-03-2008, 08:34 PM
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Quote:
what do you mean ?
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#14
11-03-2008, 08:52 PM
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6 point teaser you take 6 points in your favor , but " both teams have to win
Example Jets fav by rams -9 Pat fav by bills -4 so you'd "tease" Jets down to -6 ( less than a td) and Pats to -1 ( a pick em) -3 rams , -3 pats , but "both" have to still win for you to win ... For the CHiefs , If you can get em at 15 , you tease them to + 17 , then Chargers baasically have to win by 21 then pick another team to "tease down by 4 (total of 6) (E.g. the panthers are -9.5 , tease to -5.5 they only have to win by a td)
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You Can't Win , If You're Afraid To lose don't take life too serious. None of us gets out alive .. GIDDY UP Last edited by Kramer; 11-03-2008 at 08:53 PM.
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#15
11-03-2008, 08:55 PM
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hmm 6 point teasers I am familiar with give you +6 on both teams
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