Week 11 Doobie Thoughts : )

[Kramer]

Vegas Recap: Aside from two weeks this year,
Vegas has beaten the public.
This includes Week 10, where a seven of the 10
highly bet teams failed to cover.
The only ones that did were the Jets, Buccaneers and Eagles.
Vegas walked away with tons of money because the
Bears, Bengals, Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos, Seahawks and Rams all beat the number


Football games are won in the trenches,

Suicide Picks :


Arizona (3-6) at Kansas City (5-4), Sunday, 1:00 (Kansas City -8)

Buffalo (1-8) at Cincinnati (2-7), Sunday, 1:00 (Cincinnati -5.5

Cleveland (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4), Sunday, 1:00 (Jacksonville -1.5)

Detroit (2-7) at Dallas (2-7), Sunday, 1:00 (Dallas -7)

Houston (4-5) at N.Y. Jets (7-2), Sunday, 1:00 (N.Y. Jets -7)

Oakland (5-4) at Pittsburgh (6-3), Sunday, 1:00 (Pittsburgh -7.5)

Washington (4-5) at Tennessee (5-4), Sunday, 1:00 (Tennessee -7)


Seattle (5-4) at New Orleans (6-3), Sunday, 4:05 (New Orleans -11.5)


Washington (4-5) at Tennessee (5-4), Sunday, 1:00 (Tennessee -7)


Tampa Bay (6-3) at San Francisco (3-6), Sunday, 4:05 (San Francisco -3)



Indianapolis (6-3) at New England (7-2), Sunday, 4:15 (New England -3)



N.Y. Giants (6-3) at Philadelphia (6-3), Sunday, 8:20 (Philadelphia -3)

Denver Broncos (3-6) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)
Line: Chargers by 10


BAD TEAMS :

BENGALS
DALLAS
SAN FRAN

Iffy :
J.V.
TENN



I’ll Go With The ,
Saints ,
If ya got em
: )

more later

[Kramer]

ATS Notes in the NFL
Submitted on Sun, 2010-11-14 02:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich


CHECKING ON HIGHS AND LOWS
SO FAR IN NFL POINTSPREAD PERFORMANCE


If you’ve been following the NFL closely this year, you know that underdogs
have been getting the money this year to a pretty extreme degree…
and that sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Reno are cleaning up as a result.


Squares (the general public) bet favorites.
When favorites are struggling, owning a sportsbook is like
owning a printing press.

This may not continue all season long.

But, for now, oddsmakers and sportsbooks are very happy
with their bottom
line in the NFL.

What doest your bottom line look like?

Are you still waiting for it to hit bottom because you’ve been
betting too many favorites?

Or, have you been focusing on the wrong teams…
betting on overpriced media favorites who have such steep hurdles to climb?


You might be surprised to learn that the best pointspread teams so far
in 2010
are the worst football franchises of the past decade!


ATS RECORDS
Detroit 7-1
St. Louis 6-2
Oakland 6-3


The teams you don’t want to touch with a 10-foot pole are
finally coming through
this season after years of futility.

You have head coaches who are getting things done…
management teams who are making some smart personnel moves…
and, in the case of the Lions and Rams…very high draft picks from last season
who were able to come in and make an immediate impact.

Vegas oddsmakers, myself included, underrated those
three teams in the first half
of the season.

No doubt about it.

But, the fact that those are the ONLY three teams
out of 32 that have six covers or more to this point suggests
that oddsmakers
have been doing a very good job in the pro’s this season.


In a league of parity, the lines have captured that parity pretty effectively.

Let’s look at the other end of the spectrum.

Here are the teams with six non-covers or more.
ATS RECORDS
Dallas 1-7
Cincinnati 2-6
Minnesota 2-6
Denver 2-6
Carolina 2-6

You can see there why the public has gotten drilled so badly this year.

*DALLAS is America’s Team, yet they’ve only covered once all season!
All the talk about “hosting” a Super Bowl this year went to the heads of bettors
(and even some sharps I know).

*CINCINNATI was one of the most hyped teams in August because
they added Terrell Owens.
When a playoff team makes a big name acquisition,
it’s supposed to help them. Many bettors have been hurt repeatedly with the Bengals.
*MINNESOTA is led by Brett Favre,
who is one of the most hyped players in league history.
Squares weren’t hurt by betting on him last year, but they sure have been this season.
So, we have three good spread teams…
five bad spread teams…and everyone else is in the 5-3 to 3-5 range.
Clearly a good job by the markets of having everyone evaluated properly.
I did want to point out though that first place teams are shading
toward profit thus far this season.
Handicappers able to recognize the best in all eight divisions
have probably done themselves some favors in terms of bankroll.
ATS RECORDS OF DIVISION LEADERS
(there are three divisions with co-leaders)
Indianapolis 5-2-1St. Louis 6-2
NY Jets 5-3
New England 4-3-1
Pittsburgh 5-3
Tennessee 5-3
Kansas City 5-3
NY Giants 5-3
Green Bay 5-4
Atlanta 5-4
Seattle 4-4
Not a single divisional leader has a losing ATS record so far!
While the public kept chasing Dallas, Cincinnati, and Minnesota,
it looks like they’ve missed out on quality teams who have been able to work
their way to the top of their divisions.
Good teams aren’t crushing the spread…but many are grinding out a profit

[gdog]

Lovin RAIDERS +7 1/2 ... Comin off their bye week , should be ready.. Beat them last year why not this year, & their alot better .. I know their division is week and thats why they will take AFC west !!! Worst case scenerio they cover that huge spread.... Steelers exposed by Pats !!!! BOL to all in the mall !!! BTW got Oakland +8 BTH>>>>>Also on Cincy, Dallas & Jets BIG !!!!!