Week 11 - No surprises please!

[The Nac]

This should be one of the few weeks where, when everything is lined up, it should stay lined up. I don't anticipate a whole lot of head scratching this week.

Maybe I should be nervous then lol

New York Jets (-6) @ Denver
Hard to like Denver here. Yes, the Jets are flying across the country into thin air coming off a brutal loss and have 3 days to plan. But, as a Broncos fan, I remember what the Lions did. Tebow's gotten the job done for us, but that 1 loss he has was against a team that was legitimately better than Denver. I think our defense will help keep the score down, and so will Tebow.
NYJ 23 DEN 10

Dallas (-7.5) @ Washington
Be weary of large home dogs, especially in divisional matchups. It's very easy to pick Dallas here, but the Redskins may have been waiting for this game to finally play some football. Don't think Shanahan is unaware of how important this game is to both teams. Like this one to come down to a FG.
DAL 27 WSH 24

Oakland (-1) @ Minnesota
Carson Palmer has been improving with each game, getting back to being an effective QB. Christian Ponder is coming off not just his worst performance to date, but one of the worst performances this year against Green Bay's secondary. I like Oakland in this spot. If DMC is back, they run and throw all over the Vikings. If it's Bush starting at RB, they still run and throw all over the Vikings.
OAK 27 MIN 17

Buffalo @ Miami (-2)
I'm unsure of this game. Last week's debacle at Dallas really has me confused about this Buffalo team. What I'm not confused about is Miami. Despite their record, these guys refuse to give up. More than can be said of some teams (*cough* Indy *cough*). It may be a good spot for the Bills to bounce back, but I'm not on that train.
BUF 20 MIA 26

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-14)
Ever have one of those days where, you know when you go home you're grounded for doing something stupid. You failed a big test at school. Your girlfriend dumped you. Oh ya, and after school, that kid you're afraid of? He's waiting to kick your ass at your bus stop. Now you know how Tampa feels this week.
TB 13 GB 40

Carolina @ Detroit (-7)
Carolina should bounce back from last week's nightmare performance vs the Titans. That being said, don't expect a win. The Lions were embarrassed against the Bears, and return to the safety of the dome. Donkeykong Suh is going to be in Newton's grill all day, and the Lions offense is going to anger bang that Panthers defense.
CAR 20 DET 37

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-1)
Again, Cleveland shouldn't be favoured over anyone. That being said, I think Jacksonville is thrilled they weren't the first ones to lose to Indy. So now they'll lose in the Dog Pound. Ogbannaya shoul break 100 yds this week, which is good because I'm not sure what the hell is happening to the passing offense in Cleveland. Get ready for another snoozefest.
JAX 13 CLE 16

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-7)
Had Baltimore won last week, I would've felt much better about Cincy's chances here. But, regardless of injuries on either side, the fact that the Ravens lost in SEATTLE? Oh Andy, you are in trouble.
CIN 10 BAL 33

Arizona @ San Francisco (-9.5)
There may be a lot of people on Zona this week after the big upset win over Philly. I'm not. SanFran has done nothing but get the job done all year (minus that crazy win by Dallas in OT) and last week was no exception. A lot of people had the Giants to take that, and were expecting the 49ers to be exposed. Guess what? They weren't then, and they won't be this week. The only Fitz you'll see this week will the ones SanFran are giving to the Arizona coaches.
ARZ 15 SF 28

Seattle @ St. Louis (-1)
Seattle has a bit of swagger going on right now, which is funny considering they're 3-6. But when your 3 wins are against Arizona, NY Giants, and Baltimore, and you're going into St. Louis? Ya I'd strut, too. This game will have a heavy dose of Lynch vs Jackson, as both teams will try to ride their running games to a win. I like getting a point here.
SEA 26 STL 24

San Diego @ Chicago (-3.5)
I don't feel like this line is high enough. Chicago has taken 4 straight, and is coming off a convincing victory over the Lions. San Diego is coming off a devastating home loss to the Raiders and has dropped 4 straight. Their last win? 29-24 in Denver. The Broncos fan in me wants them to lose. The bettor in me says they will just because the Bears are that much better.
SD 23 CHI 29

Tennessee @ Atlanta (-6)
Atlanta has had that OT home loss vs New Orleans last week playing in their head everyday leading up to this game. Tennessee comes into this game feeling good about themselves after a convincing 27 beating of the Panthers. Their secondary held Newton in check, and will have to do the same against Matt Ryan if they're to have any chance of winning. I like the Titans to keep it close, but the Falcons will bully their way to a decision.
TEN 24 ATL 28

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-5) - SNF
This should make for a good SNF game as the Giants look to bounce back from a 27-20 loss to SanFran, while Philly looks to bounce back from one of the biggest upsets this season when they dropped the ball against Arizona, 21-17. The result from the Eagles has been more hype than product, and I expect this week we'll see first-hand why the Giants are on top of the NFC East.
PHI 20 NYG 27

Kansas City @ New England (-14.5) - MNF
The only team this week that possibly has a chance to feel worse than TB would be KC. Paint the same scenario, except instead of the bus stop, the bully is waiting for you in the gym...during homecoming...and both of your hands are broken (Cassel & Charles). Ouch.
KC 3 NE 40

Regardless of what you play this week, good luck guys. It's been a down year for a lot us, so hopefully there's money to be made for everyone this week

[LadyDawn]

i cant touch 49ers i think vegas just caught up to them now after 6 str8 covers time to jump off that 49er money train !

[resteasy]

Good job like the write up.
Not sold on cleveland but it is jacksonville. Should be a good workout for the kickers kind of game.

My worry about seattle/st louis is that seattle could be worn down from the baltimore game and st louis is playing at home where they are more comfortable (ask the saints).

[LordCC]

Best of luck Nac!

[Ricky Tan]

Thanks for the write-up Nac.

Agree with you on the Bears line, among other things

[The Nac]

Thanks guys! I just like to put it out there so that if I'm wrong later, we all know why lol

If it ends up helping anyone, I'm glad. One way or another, someone's gettin' paid!

[The Nac]

I am so so SO happy to be wrong on the TNF pick!

[The Nac]

[The Nac]

1 wrong so far on my pools ticket. On a week like this, I wonder if that'll be good enough to win or if there's some perfects out there.