Week 12 Doobie Thoughts : )

[Kramer]

Survivor thoughts -
Tough week to pick because many teams season is now done :
Many players also starting to rest their injuries
with next year in negotiation ..


Bills done
Browns done
Texans? Likely done
Broncos done
Cardinals done
Panthers done

Giant - lost 2 still a fav?
Redskins?? Vikings done , spoiler?
Seattle- good at home
Oakland?
Ravens-
Bears?
Jags won 3 in a row , Ginats lost 2
Stay away

Short and sweet
Survivor - Browns , home fav

Redskins Pick em

more later
maybe

heading out to casino tomorrow ,
first time in 2 years ,
so no I don’t have a gambling problem
lol

[Kramer]

Nick: What Sharps Think About NFL
Submitted by nick on Fri, 2010-11-26 00:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich

WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE NFL

I hope you had a great holiday with your loved ones.
Time to focus once again on FOOTBALL!

Here's my weekly report on what sharps (professional wagerers)
are thinking about this week's NFL games.
The first three are already in the books.
Let's take a look at Sunday and Monday...

MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON:

Not much early interest in this one, though an opener of Washington -1.5 is down to Washington -1.
That may simply be a little boost for the Vikings off the coaching change.
One isn't a key number in the NFL.

I don't expect sharps to be too active here unless the public
drives the number away from where it is now.

PITTSBURGH AT BUFFALO:
Some early interest on Pittsburgh and the Over, as -6 is now -6.5,
and 42 is now 43.
Overs have been winning at a good rate all season...
so we've been seeing some early support for Overs the past few weeks.
Unless bad weather becomes a factor, sharps will be looking for the Steelers
to score some points on a Buffalo defense that hasn't been
very impressive this year.

Note that this isn't 'strong' support' for Pittsburgh though.
The line went to -6.5, but now all the way up to -7.

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON:
The confirmed news that Rusty Smith will quarterback for Tennessee
inspired some Houston and Under money.
But, linesmakers had already anticipated that...
so these weren't major moves.

Houston opened at -6 and is now -6.5.
The total dropped from 46.5 down to 45.5.

JACKSONVILLE AT NY GIANTS:

A lot of interest here on the Jaguars, as an opener of NYG -9.5
has fallen all the way down to -7.
Part of that is the injury situation for the Giants.
But, sharps really haven't been impressed with Eli Manning against decent teams.

Jacksonville has become a playoff contender with recent victories,
and now pose a serious threat to the slumping G-Men.
Note that we didn't see money coming in on the Giants
from middle shooters once it reached -7.
So...STRONG support for the Jaguars at anything over seven.

CAROLINA AT CLEVELAND:
Cleveland from -9 to -10 early on.

That could be position-taking though because sharps figure squares
will want to keep betting against Carolina.
Sharps can buy back at +10 if they wish and hope for a game
that lands on 9 or 10.

If the public does move the line any higher,
that will open up a middle possibility on the key number of 10.
No interest on the total yet. If I don't mention the total, it means I'm not seeing anything meaningful to report.

TAMPA BAY AT BALTIMORE:
Similar situation here with Jacksonville/NYG,
except the line stopped moving at -7.5 instead of -7.
Baltimore opened at -9.5, and Tampa Bay money came in quickly
to bring the line down. Oddsmakers didn't go all the way down to the key number,

which might mean something.
Sharps have been impressed with Tampa Bay this year...
and continue to look for value spots with them.
I have to admit too that the guys who liked Baltimore
as a Super Bowl team before the season started
have cooled off in their support.

PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO:
I was a bit surprised to see Chicago get early support at +3.5.
We're now seeing +3 everywhere as I write this.
Oddsmakers were anticipating Philadelphia money...

and wanted to make bandwagon jumpers lay the hook for the honor of
backing Michael Vick..
Instead, Chicago money came in so heavily
the hook got erased!
Sharps may have seen something with Vick
against the defense of the Giants last week
that has influenced their thinking here The total is up a tick from 41.5 to 42.

GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA:
A surprisingly low opener of pick-em got bet to Atlanta -2 right away.
I'm not sure why oddsmakers thought 8-2 Atlanta should be pick-em at home
vs. anybody.

That gives you a sense of the respect oddsmakers have for Green Bay...
but the early action shows you what the sharps think of Atlanta.

Both of these teams are seen as legitimate Super Bowl threats.
This may not be a big money game in Vegas because squares
(the general public) still tend to focus on the Northeast teams, Indy, and Dallas.
But, I wouldn't be shocked to see these two teams play each other again come January.

MIAMI AT OAKLAND:
This game was off the board for much of the week, so I couldn't get a read on sharp sentiments as of press time. I can tell you that many sharps like what they're seeing with Oakland this year. They'
are not holding the bad loss at Pittsburgh
against them because that was a bad body
clock game against a great opponent.

KANSAS CITY AT SEATTLE:
More interest on the total than the side initially, as an opener of 43
got bet up to 44.5 We saw a slight move toward Kansas City as an opener of
Chiefs -1 moved up to -1.5.
If you like playing Overs, you haven't been hurt too much this week
with early line moves.

Take care of business soon though.
The public prefers Overs. And, sharps who bet Unders
are taking some time off until scoring calms back down.

ST. LOUIS AT DENVER:

St. Louis got early support at +5, but that stopped at +4.
Sharps thought the line opened a point too high...but aren't suggesting
the Rams deserve to be just a field goal dog.

It's been a good year for many of the unheralded NFC dogs.

Guys winning with that will now bet them almost as a knee jerk because
it's been working so well.
Maybe that explains some of the Chicago/Philly money too.

SAN DIEGO AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Oddsmakers guessed right here with 3 and 51.5, as none of the Wise Guys have
stepped in yet on the game.

My sense from talking to sharps is that they're looking to take
the Chargers and are hoping the public drives Peyton Manning
up to 3.5 or 4.

San Diego's on their annual late run.
Indianapolis is still beleaguered by injuries.
I believe San Diego will be the sharp side...but they didn't see the need to bet early.

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA:

San Francisco opened at -2.5 but is down to -1 now.
Typically, if you see an opener of 2.5 for anyone...oddsmakers like the other side
and are hoping to take a position against the public

(a line like 2.5 is meant to lure in favorite money because three is a key number).

Some believe any 2.5 point favorite is automatically a 'false' favorite.

Sharps sure bet that way...taking the +2.5, +2, and +1.5 with the home underdog on the assumption they'll probably win outright

[Steel]

Good stuff Kramer

[secondbase]

nice read indeed

[#1 Stunna KP]

awesome info! thanks

[killa21]

gl this week, thanks for the info bredz