Week 12 plays with write ups- couple big plays

[xTheNutsx]

Posted Record: 7-2 +14.5 units

10* Arizona +3 (-120): I've bet the Titans the last 3 weeks and they covered for me every week... But I feel they are outclassed in this match up. The cards have quietly gone 6-1 in their last 7 games and aren't getting much hype due to what else is going on in the NFL. In fact, Tennessee is being talked about more than they are right now. Vince Young has been a solid game manager but you can't ask him to win the game for you. The Cardinals are a top 10 run D and I hope they can at least contain Chris Johnson and make Vince throw the ball to beat them. The Titans give up the 2nd most passing yards a game and I think Warner can shred their secondary. Warner's health is a concern but has been fully practicing since Wed. In fact, I think the Cards still win even with Leinart playing even though he looked pretty bad last week. Arizona is a perfect 5-0 on the road and the only game in jeopardy at all was the Sunday night game at the Giants. After being shaky on the road last year it seems the opposite is true this year.

8* Patriots +2: I really liked them 2 weeks ago against the Colts and I love them again this week. I feel these are the games the Patriots are live for- on the road at an undefeated team in front of every sports fan watching... Two weeks after their coach was questioned for going for it. Despite getting no credit, the patriots D is ranked 2nd in scoring defense. If they can slow down Drew Brees at all I can't see them not winning this game. Patriots offense is clicking on all cylinders and looks like the unstoppable force they were 2 years ago. Brady has always been clutch in these games and I expect the same Monday night.

3* Bills +3.5 (-115): Big revenge game for the Bills as they Dolphins spanked them 38-10 early in the season. Bills have been playing much better the last couple weeks as they were actually tied 17-17 going into the 4th quarter at Tennessee and were leading most of last week at the jags until blowing it with a minute to go. The Titans game was much closer than the final score indicated due to 2 pick 6's in the last couple minutes. Now the Bills finally get a game at home and I hope they'll respond in a big way. Although the dolphins did win last week they aren't that great. Losing Ronnie Brown hurts them - especially running the wildcat.

2* Redskins +9: I'll ride the Redskins train again this week. Not that I'm in love with this team but again I feel they are catching too many points. Redskins give up the least amount of passing yards a game... and all the Eagles do is throw the ball every play so let's hope they slow down McNabb. Redskins running game has looked decent lately and even with Betts out I think Cartright should take some of the pressure off Campbell.

1* Steelers/Ravens Over ??: This play is dependent on Big Ben playing. If he doesn't play I won't bet it. If he plays I'll throw a unit on the over. I told myself I wouldn't play any over/unders as I've been wrong with most of them, but I told myself early in the year I would bet the over when these teams played so I'll stick to it. The reasoning behind this is I don't think these are the defensive teams they used to be. Due to this I think the total will be a bit lower than it should be (hopefully low 40's). These teams are more offensive minded, throw the ball down field this year. Not grind it out/rely on the defense to get stops and play field position like in the past.