Week 14 Simulations

[pittviper]

Last week..
Plays with line difference of 6+: 3-0
Plays with line difference of 5+: 3-2

Week 14: (line in bracket is the books odds)

Oakland 18
vs. 43
San Diego 29(-10)

Cleveland 10.5
vs. 37.5
Tennessee 28 (-13.5)

Cincinnati 9.5
vs. 42.5
Indianapolis 26.5 (-13.5)

Philadelphia 17
vs. 44
New York Giants 28 (-9)

Atlanta 27
vs. 51.5
New Orleans 27 (-3)

New York Jets 30 (-4)
vs. 44.5
San Francisco 22.5

Miami 21.5
vs. 42
Buffalo 24 (-1)

Kansas City 23
vs. 48
Denver 32 (-9.5)

St. Louis 14
vs. 48.5
Arizona 40 (-13.5)

Dallas 17
vs. 41.5
Pittsburgh 23 (-3)

New England 25.5 (-4.5)
vs. 43
Seattle 17.5

Tampa Bay 20.5
vs. 38.5
Carolina 20 (-3)

*A few games don't have lines out yet, I will add to this list once they have lines out*

[pittviper]

Biggest line differences:

Differences of 6+: (3-0)
Arizona Cardinals -13.5.. my line ARZ -26.. line off 12.5 points
NYJ/San Francisco over 44.5.. my line 52.5.. line off 8 points
KC/Denver over 48.. my line 55.. line off 7 points
Cincinnati/Indianapolis under 42.5.. my line 36.. line off 6.5 points
Minnesota Vikings -9.5.. my line MIN -15.5.. line off 6 points

Differences of 5+: (3-2)
St. Louis/Arizona over 48.5.. my line 54.. line off 5.5 points

Arizona Cardinals -13.5.. my line ARZ -26.. line off 12.5 points
NYJ/San Francisco over 44.5.. my line 52.5.. line off 8 points
KC/Denver over 48.. my line 55.. line off 7 points
Cincinnati/Indianapolis under 42.5.. my line 36.. line off 6.5 points
Minnesota Vikings -9.5.. my line MIN -15.5.. line off 6 points

[mcallister3200]

thanx for posting your hard work pitt, the simulations are pretty interesting to look at from week to week

[pittviper]

Minnesota 32.5 (-9.5)
vs no total yet
Detroit 17

line off 6 points..

[The Nac]

Can you explain to me how this works? How are you figuring out line differences, and then determining who to play?

[pittviper]

Originally Posted by mcallister3200

thanx for posting your hard work pitt, the simulations are pretty interesting to look at from week to week

thanks cally.. the top 4 plays look like atleast a 3-1 week to me

[pittviper]

Originally Posted by The Nac

Can you explain to me how this works? How are you figuring out line differences, and then determining who to play?

There are three things;
My simulation line (as in what the score should finish)
The actual line (the actual line the book sets)
Line off (just compare my line to the actual line, and when a line is off by 6+ points, bet that play)

BOL
PV

[The Nac]

Originally Posted by pittviper

There are three things;
My simulation line (as in what the score should finish)
The actual line (the actual line the book sets)
Line off (just compare my line to the actual line, and when a line is off by 6+ points, bet that play)

BOL
PV

So then I should bet:
Arizona Cardinals -13.5
NYJ/San Francisco over 44.5
KC/Denver over 48
Cincinnati/Indianapolis under 42.5
Minnesota Vikings -9.5 ?

[pittviper]

Originally Posted by The Nac

So then I should bet:
Arizona Cardinals -13.5
NYJ/San Francisco over 44.5
KC/Denver over 48
Cincinnati/Indianapolis under 42.5
Minnesota Vikings -9.5 ?

Correct.. with Arizona having the most value, NYJ/SF over next with most value. etc.

If you bet those 5 plays, IMO, worst you end up is 3-2.

BOL
PV

[The Nac]

OK thanks very much, pv. Will definitely take that into consideration

[pittviper]

Originally Posted by The Nac

OK thanks very much, pv. Will definitely take that into consideration

Yup. Just another tool to add to the belt.

[Thunder]

Thanks for the info PV....

[mcallister3200]

Hey PV, I was just wondering if you ran a simulation on the Houston@GB game. Think I like GB, but kinda iffy with their run D

[pittviper]

Originally Posted by mcallister3200

Hey PV, I was just wondering if you ran a simulation on the Houston@GB game. Think I like GB, but kinda iffy with their run D

Houston 24.5
@ 47
Green Bay 31 (-6)


I see Grant/Jackson rushing for a combined 105-115 yards.

Over is the only good bet.. in fact THE OVER is a system bet.

BOL
PV

[sesh]

I haven't seen this before, but does it usually pick around 85% faves or is that just a trend for this week?