Week 16 NFL Action!!!!!!!!!!

Mendoza Line · #1 12-24-2011, 12:50 AM

11-1 in Week 15.

Need another good winning week as the season winds down. I think I've fine-tuned these almost as much as I can. Ugly, ugly list with some short notes.....

#104 Oak/KC Under 42 -110 They're 2-11-0 o/u in the last 13 meetings. Home faves are 0-7-1 o/u after playing as a home dog of more than a TD. Lean to KC.

#105 Denver -2.5 -125 (3 units) Got this at -3 and again at -1.5. Tebow 5-0 SU/ATS on the road. Buffalo is 4-8-1 ATS as a home dog. Buffalo 3-23-1 ATS after playing Miami. Played this one for years. Lost earlier this season, and hasn't lost twice in a season since????

#111 Miami +10 -120 Phins on a 7-1 ATS run. Miami 13-3 ATS as DD dogs. DD dogs are 21-13-1 ATS overall in the NFL this season. Pats 13-23-1 last 37 as TD+ faves.

#113 Cle/Balt Under 38 -110 Heavy action on the Under, and the books are willing to move it down. Should look like the last matchup. Browns are 3-8-1 o/u as road dogs. D, D, and more D.

#115 Giants +3 -110 NYG is 7-0 ATS after playing at home versus the Redskins. NYG is 31-15 ATS in their last 46 on the road. The Giants' recent schedule has been tough in the last several weeks, but they aren't as bad as they've played. Sanchez sucks.

#117 Minnesota +7 -110 Skins have been dogs for 10 straight weeks, and have covered 4 of their last 5, and winning SU as a road dog last week, hence the value. Skins are 5-13-1 ATS as home faves. Skins are 0-12 ATS as faves of 5+ after winning SU as a dog. Skins are 0-12 ATS hosting a team with fewer wins. Skins are 0-7 ATS as a home fave when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. Skins are 8-22-3 ATS vs a team with a losing record.

#117 Minn/Wash Over 44 -110 Back-and-forth shootout! Vikes give up tons of points, but haven't had an INT in 9 games. That should change with Grossman on the field for the Skins. Should be a one-score game, so they'll be slinging it instead of kneeling at the end.

#123 San Diego +3 -135 SD offense is clicking big in their last 3 games, scoring 36+ ppg, and Detroit is giving up a ton in their last 6 overall. SD is 13-1 ATS as dogs after winning their last 2 SU, and they're 8-0 ATS as a dog when they won those last 2 by at least a TD. Bolts are 21-4-1 ATS as dome dogs.

#126 Seattle +2 -120 Both teams coming off big wins over hobbled teams, and both teams have played a bunch of crap teams in general. SF is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as road faves. Seattle is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 at home. Seattle is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as dogs.

#127 Philadelphia +2 -120 Eagles are 10-0 ATS as a road dog after a game in which they scored 34 or more points. Eagles are a very good road dog historically, especially against teams with winning records. The Boys are just 1-5 ATS against teams with losing records, and they are a terrible 3-10 ATS in their last 13 as a home fave.

Took St Loius +15.5 earlier, but it's only +12 now, so don't want to post a play with a line that's not available anywhere. Pitt 6-17 ATS as DD faves.

Lean to Ariz (Cincinnati is 2-16 the last 18 as home favorites)

Lean to the Mia/NE Over and the SD/Det Over.

GL Mallers!!!!!!!!!!