Week 17 by Chris Schultz

[Lukester]

Week 17 Picks:
--------------





Indianapolis (-1.0) Buffalo Schultz Picks: Buffalo:
------------------------------------------------
Now that the possibility of a perfect season is gone, logic says Peyton Manning will play two or three series, maybe a half at the most, then sit and watch. Manning's No. 1 backup Curtis Painter did not look confident in his limited time replacing Manning against the Jets. Behind him is Drew Willy, activate off the practice roster, because the regular backup is injured. If you're going to sit Manning then sit everybody - Reggie wayne, Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai - anybody who is significant and makes plays.




Jacksonville Cleveland (-0.5) Schultz Picks: Cleveland:
----------------------------------------------------

The Browns have won their last three over Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Oakland. The Jags have lost their last three to Miami, Indianapolis and New England. Overall, the Jaguars are the better team but the Browns may be the superior squad right now. Also, the Mike Holmgren influence has to weigh on the players' mind. I am sure Holmgren already has a good idea of the overall talent level of the team but if he were to see a lack of effort to any degree from any player, I am sure he would put that name in his personal notebook. Jack del Rio has 17 rookies on his roster. It makes sense - they are 7-8.



San Francisco (-7.0) St. Louis Schultz Picks: San Francisco:
----------------------------------------------------------

The Rams have beaten one team all year, when they dropped the Detroit Lions 17-10 in Week 8. They have not scored over 20 points since Week 10. And six times this season, the Rams have allowed 30 or more points. With a win, the 9ers go to 8-8 but when you look at their past 15 games, they have really only been blown out one time (45-10 against Atlanta). The first 49ers/Rams game in Week 4 was won by San Fran 35-6. This one should be closer, but not by much.



Pittsburgh (-2.0) Miami Schultz Picks: Pittsburgh:
-----------------------------------------------

The Steelers still have a playoff shot but need a lot of help to get there. They would need the Texans to lose at home to the Patriots. Thye would need the Jets to lose at home to the Bengals. And they would need the Ravens to lose to the Raiders in Oakland. They realistically need Denver to lose at home to the Chiefs. If all that happens and the Steelers beat the Dolphins, they are in (unless someone ties any of those previous four games). Miami used to have fourth quarter problems, but now they have first half problems. In both the Tennessee game and the Houston game, Miami lost the first half, whcih meant they lost the game.



NY Giants Minnesota (-9.0) Schultz Picks: Minnesota:
----------------------------------------------------

I just can't figure out the Giants. They win the first five games of the regular season, then they lose their next four. AFter that, they win one and lose one for the rest of the season. The last two games make no sense, beating Washington 32-12 and losing to Carolina 41-9. The Vikings are a much better team in the Metrodome - all four of their losses have been on the road. They need this one to keep their position of second in the NFC.



Chicago (-3.0) Detroit Schultz Picks: Chicago:
---------------------------------------------

The Bears must have gained some confidence in their present ability to play well after beating a Vikings team 36-30 in overtime. Detroit - well, they could only score six points against the 49ers and Stafford is done for the year. I am not sure whether it will be Culpepper or Stanton at quarterback but neither has had the game experience to give confidence of an exceptional performance come Sunday. The Bears have become victims of previous success. After the 2006 Super Bowl loss to the Colts in Miami, they ahve missed the playoffs all three years since. But they're still good enough to beat Detroit.



Atlanta (-2.0) Tampa Bay Schultz Picks: Atlanta:
-----------------------------------------------

The Falcons are a good 8-7 team and with a win, they could register - for the first time in franchise history - back-to-back winning season. It may seem like a major consolation prize considering this was a playoff team last year, but it is something to build on for the 2010 season. The Bucs are seeing good quarterback play from Josh Freeman considering his rookie status and are running the ball very well. But Atlanta has only allowed Fred Taylor of New England to run for over 1000 yards as a single running back.



New Orleans (-5.5) Carolina Schultz Picks: Carolina:
--------------------------------------------------

All of a sudden there is meaning to this game in that the Saints have won home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, but have lost their last two games 24-17 to Dallas and 20-17 in OT to the Buccaneers. I think Sean Payton will want one real good half of football and will then sit his key starters. They are playing a Carolina team that has won three of their last four and maybe, just maybe, have a quarterback for the future in Matt Moore. He has seven touchdowns and only two interceptions but no Steve Smith.



New England Houston (-8.0) Schultz Picks: New England:
-------------------------------------------------------

The Patrios are in as AFC East division winner. They are not going to catch the Colts or Chargers and obtain the bye, but they are presently tied with the Bengals at 10-5 and would benefit by being the third best in the AFC, therefore playing the sixth best team instead of the fifth. They have won three in a row and were impressive against Jacksonville last week. For Houston, they have to beat the Patriots and need the Jets, Ravens or Broncos to lose. Two of the three must lose and the Texans must win. They are playing very well with three wins in a row, and Matt Schaub has thrown for 4,467 yards, tops in the NFL. Still, too many points for me.



Baltimore (-10.5) Oakland Schultz Picks: Baltimore:
-------------------------------------------------

The Ravens are in a win-and-you're-in situation here in Week 17. The Raiders are 5-10 and are looking for respect and optimism for the 2010 season. The Ravens played very well in the second half of the Steelers game and beat themselves as much as Pittsburgh beat them 23-20. They're a perfect 4-0 against teams with a losing record. No one wants to play the Baltimore Ravens in Round 1 of the NFL playoffs. They are tough, physical and should have Ed Reed back at safety.



Green Bay Arizona (-3.0) Schultz Picks: Arizona:
----------------------------------------------

This is a tough one t pick because both teams are 10-5 and both teams have very little to gain. There is also a very good chance taht the Packers could be back in Arizona to play the Cards in the Wildcard game. So why even let the Cards compete against Aaron Rodgers and his offence? Rodgers has thrown for over 400 yards now for two consecutive seasons. The reality is that in the second half, Matt Leinart and Matt Flynn will probably play. Edge goes to Leinart.



Washington San Diego (-3.5) Schultz Picks: San Diego:
-----------------------------------------------------

I am sure that Jim Zorn is looking forward to the end of this one so he can move on with his life. I am sure that every Chargers player wants to stay healthy going into a home divisional playoff game. Even if Philip Rivers plays very little, Billy Volek is an underrated backup at quarterback. The Chargers have very good depth. The Redskins have a long way to go to be brought back to being a respectable team. The Chargers are already there.



Tennessee (-4.5) Seattle Schultz Picks: Tennessee:
--------------------------------------------------

I was watching the highlight pack of last week's 48-10 win over the Seahawks by Green Bay. The Hawks did not play with pro football intensity. Whether it was Rayan Grant or Greg Jenning or Donald Driver, there was a noticeable absence of willingness to sacrifice the body to make the play. On the big position side, Chris Johnson is 168 yards away from 2000-yard rushing in '09 and '10, he has an amazing 5.8 yards per carry and leads the team with 47 catches. I hope Tennessee makes the effort in number of carries to hit 2000, because he may never have another chance again. A running back's average life in the NFL is 2.8 years. Then again, Chris Johnson is a running back who is nowhere near average.



Philadelphia Dallas (-3.0) Schultz Picks: Philadelphia:
--------------------------------------------------

Both teams are playing their best football of the season right now. For Philadelphia, they are very well prepared and play exceptional offence. The Eagles are 11-0 when they lead at halftime and are averaging 31.2 points per game on offence. For Dallas, Tony Romo has been exceptional in December and now has found a great downfield target in Kevin Ogletree to complement the four other receivers. If Philly wins, they win the division. If Dallas wins, they win the division, having previously beaten the Eagles 20-16 in Week 9.



Kansas City Denver (-13.0) Schultz Picks: Kansas City:
-----------------------------------------------------

The Chiefs have not beaten a team that has a playoff opportunity in December since 1991. I don't know what that says about this game but I do know that since each team's respective bye week, each team has won only two games. The first Broncos/Chiefs game was an easy 44-13 win by Denver in Kansas City. But it was also the last time the Chiefs were dominated by any team.



Cincinnati NY Jets (-10.0) Schultz Picks: Cincinnati:
--------------------------------------------------

The Bengals have won the AFC North, but they can still earn the third seed in the playoffs with a win and a Patriots loss in Houston. If both teams win, the Patriots move to the third spot based on opponents defeated. The Bengals have beaten the easy teams, lost to the good teams, and the truth is they have not played well since Week 10 when they beat the Steelers 18-12. The Jets can win an AFC wildcard if they beat Cincinnati on Sunday night. There is no doubt that they benefited greatly from the absence of Peyton Manning and others last week, and that is a key question. If New England beats Houston and the game has no meaning, who will Lewis sit and who will play? Ten points is too much for me, even if Carson Palmer sits. A one-TD game either way makes sense.



*Through 240 games, Schultz is 129-105-6 against the spread