Week 3 : Dress Rehearsal Game Trends : ...

[Kramer]

WEEK THREE
Thursday, August 21
San Francisco 1-5 dog vs NFC… 1-6 UNDER Away Two
CHICAGO 0-8 SUATS Home Two… *0-5 vs NFC… 3-10 SUATS Game Three


Friday, August 22
Tennessee FISHER: 15-6 away (12-3 dog)… 22-6 away vs NFC (19-3 dog)…
ATLANTA *9-3-1 (10-3 SU) vs AFC… 6-2 SUATS Game Three… 6-1-1 OVER Game Three
no matter who the head coach has been in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last four years the Falcons have gone a perfect 4-0 outscoring their opposition 104-42. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on August 22nd when they play Tennessee at home.

Philadelphia SERIES: 1-5 (0-6 SU)… 1-7 Game Three… 6-1 OVER Away Two
NEW ENGLAND 5-0-1 Game Three… 12-2 SUATS Home Two… *12-3-3 vs NFC
The only game that Belichick tries in know is the Patriots dress rehearsal game where they have gone 5-1 against the spread with their last lost coming back in 04.
Belichick’s teams
are 5-0 SU and ATS as favorites during Week Three of the preseason.
Enter Andy Reid, the king of pre-season nonchalance,
whose Eagles were 13-23 SU in fake games entering this year.
When it comes to dress rehearsal the fact is Reid could care less
as his teams are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in Game Threes.

Houston SERIES: visitor 0-4 SUATS… 1-5 (0-6 SU) Away Two
DALLAS 5-1 (6-0 SU) Home One… *13-3 SUATS vs AFC
look for a strong showing in week # 3 against the Cowboys as Kubiak and the Texans have covered both of their dress rehearsal games

Green Bay *McCARTHY: 1-5 dog… 0-5 (1-4 SU) before Titans… *2-7 SUATS vs AFC
DENVER *17-8 vs NFC… 13-5-1 Home Two… 9-3-2 home off home
The Packers have also been blown out in their last 3 dress rehearsal game being outscored 96-33. With a very poor quarterback rotation in place for this year look for the Green Bay preseason woes to continue once again especially in week # 3 when they have to go play the Broncos in their dress rehearsal game



Saturday, August 23


Cleveland CRENNEL: *6-1 dog / *5-1 away… SERIES: 3-1 SUATS… 4-0 Game Three… 4-0 SUATS Away Two… *9-3 vs NFC
DETROIT MARINELLI: *0-3 fav… *0-6 fav… 0-4 Home Two… 1-10 SUATS Game Three… *1-6 vs AFC
Detroit is a perfect 0-4 in their annual dress rehearsal game for the preseason.
In this year’s dress rehearsal game the Lions have to play a Browns team that loves to win in the preseason.

NY Giants COIGHLIN: *14-6 SUATS vs AFC… *7-2 SUAT vs AFC… 2-10 SU Game Three 0-5 game 3
NY JETS MANGINI: *host 2-6… SERIES: 13-3… 9-1 OVER Home Two… 1-8 UNDER Game Three

Jacksonville DEL RIO: 7-1 (6-2 SU) dog… SERIES: 5-0
TAMPA BAY GRUDEN: *8-2-1 fav < 4 vs AFC… *11-5-1 (14-3 SU) home vs AFC…
Jon Gruden
14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS career mark as a home
favorite of 3 or more points

Washington 0-4 SUATS Game Four… 5-1 OVER Away Two
CAROLINA SERIES: 4-0… *14-3 vs NFC
Kansas City 0-4 SUATS Away Two… 0-4 SUATS vs AFC
MIAMI 0-4 SUATS Game Three… 5-1 OVER Home Two
under head coach Herm Edwards in the preseason going 3-13 against the spread over the past 4 seasons.

New Orleans SERIES 4-0 SUATS… *2-7-1 UNDER vs AFC
CINCINNATI LEWIS: *0-7 w/pre sea revenge… 0-5 SUATS home off home… 1-6 SUATS Game Three



Pittsburgh TOMLIN: *1-4 UNDER… 5-1 SUATS away off away… 0-3 Game Three… *1-7 UNDER vs NFC
MINNESOTA SERIES: 6-0… *3-0 vs AFC
Baltimore 1-5 UNDER Away Two… *3-9 UNDER vs NFC


ST LOUIS SERIES: 0-2 SUATS… 0-5 home off home… *1-5 SUATS vs AFC
It should also be noted in his 2 dress rehearsal games the Rams were not competitive against the Chiefs and Raiders

Arizona SERIES: 1-4 UNDER… 5-0 Game Three… 4-0 away off away… *1-5 SUATS vs AFC
OAKLAND KIFFIN: *host 4-0 SUATS… *5-0 fav… 7-1 SUATS Home Two… *7-3 SUATS vs NFC… 0-7 UNDER Game Three… *1-7 UNDER fav
Oakland is a perfect 4-0 against the spread at home over the past 2 years. Plus they are a solid 10-3 under during the past 3 years




Sunday, August 24
Buffalo *6-0 dog… 0-4 Game Three… *0-3 SUATS vs AFC
INDIANAPOLIS 0-4 SUATS Home One… 1-5 Game Four… 1-4 home vs AFC
in their dress rehearsal game where all the regulars play as Jauron puts no importance in winning this game as the Bills have lost this game under Jauron’s the last 2 years which also continues a losing trend while the Bills have lost this important game the last 4 preseason


Over the past 6 years Indianapolis has been a money maker in their dress rehearsal game going 5-1 against the spread, this year’s dress rehearsal game is on August 25th against Buffalo. While just as impressive is how poorly they play in their last preseason game of the year going 1-5 against the spread


Monday, August 25



Seattle 8-1 SU Game Three… 8-2 OVER Game Three
SAN DIEGO SERIES: 1-6 SUATS… 10-3 Game Three… 5-1 OVER Game Three
First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games in Oakland the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread, this trend continued for Turner last year as the Chargers lost at Arizona. So watch for when the Chargers play the Seahawks on August 25th this year.


SIDES GAME 3

ARIZONA : 5-0
NEW ENGLAND 5-0
CLEVELAND 4-0
DETROIT 1-10
PHILEDELPHIA 1-7
CINCINNATI 1-6

TOTALS GAME 3
INDY : 5-0 OVER
ATLANTA 6-1 OVER
OAKLAND 0-7 UNDER
GIANTS 0-5 UNNDER
JETS 1-8 UNDER

OTHER TRENDS TO CONSIDER :


PLAY ON any undefeated
Game Three road team vs.
an opponent off a loss
of 4 > points.
ATS W-L RECORD:
20-4-2 (83%)

Tenn is undefeated plying Atl who lost by more than 4 , Play Atl
Hou is undefeated , Dal lost by more than 4, Play Dal
Wash is und , Car lost by more than 4 , Play Car
Sea und , S.D. lost by 1 - no play


It’s not often you’ll find NFL teams win pre-season
games by double-digit margins, only to face a foe that
lost its previous game by a double-digit margin.

In fact,
since 1992 this occurrence has happened eighty-eight
times. The results were not good.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams in this role are 36-52 SU and 36-50-2 ATS the following game.
And if it was their 1st win of the pre-season, they dip to 15-29 SU and 13-31 ATS. That’s 29.5% ATS, or a strong ‘play
against’ proposition.

Last year, two teams met the same
criteria, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS.
Put these same-situation teams off a maiden win up
against a sub .500 opponent and watch them begin to
empty out, as they are just 7-25 ATS (22% ATS).
Better yet, dress them up as favorites off a double-digit win
against a losing team off a double-digit loss and they
drop to 2-15 ATS!

Week 2 double digit winners :
Phil - NE - DOUBLE DIGIT LOSER, PHI 1ST WIN ** Play NE **
Hou -DAL - LOST BY 10 Play Dal *
Ari -OAK L BY 1
SF-CHI L BY 3
Den-GB-LOST BY 28-DEN 1ST WIN Play GB **
Det-CLE - L BY 3
TB - JAC -L BY 5
NICK BOGDANOVICH

Overs are 20-12-1 by my count so far in the NFL Preseason. Some of you may have a different mark by a game or two depending on if you were using opening, closing, or widely available lines.
Why are there so many points this year? Several reasons based on the games Ive been watching on satellite.
*Teams are coming out throwing. Getting your offense up to speed in the modern game of pro football means spreading people out and hitting quick looks to move the ball. Its not exactly a hurry-up game. But, the effect is the same because the chains either move quickly, or the ball is punted to an opponent who will be doing the same thing. The pace has been very quick in a lot of these first quarters.
*Defenses are backing off a bit in these early games because theres just no reason to kill yourself on that side of the ball right now. That means many first team offenses are having success moving the ball and getting into the end zone. I wouldnt call it a prevent defense exactly. Its just that coverage isnt as tight as its going to be in a few weeks. Pass rushes arent as intense. And blitzing is relatively passive compared to whats ahead too.

Coaches are giving their second team quarterbacks an opportunity to run the same style of offense to make sure theyre ready in case of injury.

So, even in the first week when starters didnt go all that long, you still had this style of football for a substantial portion of the game. Frankly, Im surprised at all the passing Ive seen from the #2 quarterbacks. The last thing you want is to get those guys hurt. Its a fine line. Coaches have decided to be aggressive with their backup signal callers, and its led to an increase in scoring from the most recent seasons.


*Wide open play often leads to turnovers and cheap points. If a QB makes a mistake in this approach, the ball can be returned the distance. Weve seen a lot of that through two full weeks of action. In past years, it was often defensive or special teams points being the only thing that kept most games from staying Under.

This year theyre just padding the scoring thats already happening.
*Oddsmakers have kept the totals in past ranges meaning a lot of numbers in the mid 30s. Play has changed, but the market has been slow to adjust.


A nudge up to a typical total of 37 or 38 would have done much of the work in terms of equalizing the won-lost record. That nudge didnt happen. So, we had a lot of games flying Over, and a few landing in the 36-38 range to break the hearts of Under players.
Does this mean the rest of the Preseason is likely to be high scoring? Is this a sign that the regular season is going to be high scoring?



This week should continue to see points go up because this is the game that teams take most seriously in terms of getting ready for the regular season. First team offenses will play at least half the night. Some teams will keep their starters in even longer. You do that with an emphasis on moving the chains and finding the end zone,

But then again coaches want regulars to limit their mistakes , so perhaps some lower scoring first halfs
could be in order ...


The final week of games the following weekend could be really dead though. Coaches dont want to get any of their key players hurt on either side of the ball. Theres almost a gentlemans agreement to run out the clock and get ready for the season openers.

If this upcoming week does continue the high scoring trend, I wouldnt expect it to continue in the Preseason finales. The public is prone to overvalue Overs in those finales because they believe teams want to go out on a winning note

underdogs have gone a remarkable 23-7-2 ATS (77%) through the first two weeks, including 18 straight-up winners.

In Week 2 alone, dogs have gone 12-3 ATS with 10 SU winners heading into tonight's Monday Night Football

[rjb1816]

wanted to bet chargers when it opened up at 3...now its moved to 6.5. probably cuz hasselbeck isn't gonna play