Week 3 Stuff :

[Kramer]

Len Pasquarelli
Since the NFL adopted its current 12-team playoff format in 1990,
there have been 160 clubs that began a year with a 0-2 record.
Only 22 of those teams, just 13.75 percent, became playoff entries.


The odds are even poorer in the past decade, with only 10.8 percent
of the 0-2 teams recovering.


There were no such clubs in five of the past 10 seasons and,
since 1991, no more than three in a year.

The nine franchises that started 0-2 in the past 10 seasons,
and recovered from the dismal beginning to still reach the playoffs,
possessed a common denominator:



All of the teams countered their shaky
0-2 record by each together winning streaks of four or more games
at some point in the campaign. (Not necessarily week 3)



As history has proved, not only in terms of 0-2 starts but
also in playoff
turnover from one year to the next, those teams must


try to win week 3 .

Kramer notes - 1 thing to watch is turnovers
last yr Miami was + 17
in 2 games they are -5
can they rebound game 3 ?

Week 3 bye trends :

Philly has struggled going 3-7 s/u and 2-7-1 ats
since 2000.

But off embarrassing loss
2nd at home perhaps reverse?

Atlanta is 7-3 s/u , 9-01 ats since 2001
pre bye
What would line have been week 1 ?
I would have guessed
Atl 1-1
N.E 2-0
Patriot backers getting hurt
2 weeks in a row

Is NE overrated , Atl underrated?


Carolina is 6-1 ats last 7

pre bye road games

I see this game as Dal-7 at most,
-9 is a 2 conversion game ,
Does Carolina want to lose third in a row
by 2 possessions?
Before their bye week?

Just sayin

[Steel]

Nice stuff Kramer, looks even better sssstttttooooooooonnnnnnneeeeeedddddddd

[Kramer]

Originally Posted by Steel

Nice stuff Kramer, looks even better sssstttttooooooooonnnnnnneeeeeedddddddd

weeeeeeeeeeeeeel goooooooooooood 4 u

Take green of bay

the rammies have lost 12 straight
would you bet on them ?

[Sweetleaf22]

the rammies have lost 12 straight
would you bet on them ?


Nope, hell I sacked Mark Bulger twice stoned in HS, Was debating GB in survivor poll since they got upset last week but couldnt pass on Balt

[Lukester]

Out of the 16 games this week I see a high possibility that 13 Dogs will cover the spread--and that's not far fetched. But what is far fetched is that there's a possibility of 10 upsets this week being early in the season as we shall separate the overated-underated teams after this week.

[Steel]

Originally Posted by Kramer

weeeeeeeeeeeeeel goooooooooooood 4 u

Take green of bay

the rammies have lost 12 straight
would you bet on them ?

I have them winning but I have 8 plays now. lol

[Kramer]

Originally Posted by Lukester

Out of the 16 games this week I see a high possibility that 13 Dogs will cover the spread--and that's not far fetched. But what is far fetched is that there's a possibility of 10 upsets this week being early in the season as we shall separate the overated-underated teams after this week.

Who would be your top 3 favs Lukester?

I like Pit,
Gr.Bay,
NYG

[Henry09]

Hi Kramer,

you're good with stats.

I was wondering if you have a stat or trend on how teams do the next week after losing in Monday Night football?

I really like Miami to cover this week but something in the back of my mind is telling me that losing MNF teams don't fair very well the next week.

Thanks in advance.

[Kramer]

That’s a good question , but I think it should be
broken down more than just Monday night games .

Sports touts sell such patterns - "trends" - as though they
were important information.
Trouble is, just as with the marbles in the cigar box,

these trends are usually nothing more than pure coincidence;
binomial distribution at work, nothing more than the natural result
of the mathematical probabilities involved.
In short, many of these trends are absolutely meaningless.
They are bound to happen, but there's no reason for them to continue.
For example, if you flip a coin only 3 times the chances of getting 3 heads
(or 3 tails) are 7-to-one.


You knew that. However, if you flip the same coin 50 times
I can virtually guarantee you will get 3 heads (or 3 tails)
in a row at some time or another during the 50 flips.


The odds are no longer 7-to-one against getting 3 heads in a row;
the odds are virtually 100 percent.


You cannot then look back and think you 'overcame' 7-to-1 odds.
You didn't

So, does all this mean you should ignore trends?


Well.....not exactly. The key is in double-checking for a possible
legitimate cause of such a trend. If teams in pink uniforms
have beaten teams in yellow uniforms 9 of 10 times,
there may be some other common thread that runs through those games, -
some reasonable cause for such a disparity.


When such a streak is spotted it might be worth investigating further, -
but you can be sure of one thing: the record was not
caused by the colors of their uniforms


NFL home teams on Monday night have covered the pointspread well over
55% of the time since 1980. This particular trend has legitimate
supportive evidence.



MIAMI :
Miami has enjoyed terrific success
in this series in the past, going 5-0 ATS the last fi ve meetings and 5-0 ATS
the last five games on this field.
The Fish are also 10-0 ATS as dogs of 2 or
more points against the AFC West and 7-0 ATS when visiting teams from
this division

that being spotlighted on national television somehow enhances the
effect of a home field advantage. This 'spotlight' effect might also be even more enhanced by the fact that teams chosen for Monday Night Football are always
the better teams in the league. research has shown that good teams
tend to perform better than expected as underdogs,
no matter how good a team they're facing.

As you can see , the 10-0 , or 7-0 vs div,
doesn’t mean diddly as a mon nite Football trend

San Diego has injury concerns ,

I have no opinion on the game ,
If you like it ,
go with your instincts

If I told you hypothetically MNF losers were
2-30 l 2 yrs
or 30-2
what’s the dif depending on how many mon night games Miami has played last
2 years would be a further breakdown ...

Cheers

[kermit]

Great info with trends, one worth mentioning is a carry over from last year being that teams that travelled 3 time zones had an abysmal record ats, dont have the exact stat but i know that last year it made us all alot of money as pro-line and the rest of handicappers neglected it and i know that alot of starting betting it half way through the season....so Miami is traveling 3 time zones to face SD at home who needs a win desperately...Miami also needs a win if they have any chance of putting together a halfway decent season, they looked good against one of the worst defenses in the league in Indy but still found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I think the trend continues on this one and SD covers the spread

[Henry09]

Thanks for the info mate,

unfortunately you didn't really answer the question. I guess because you don't know any stats on losing MNF teams the next week?

The trend is somewhat significant (imo) because it explores how teams go when they are playing on short rest; and

How they react after losing on prime time.

cheers.

[Lukester]

Originally Posted by Kramer

Who would be your top 3 favs Lukester?

I like Pit,
Gr.Bay,
NYG

My 3 Favs:
-----------

NYG-6.5 as well but I rank them first with a 95% chance of covering--not third rank like yours. But that's scary to like a team so much in a week. The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 road games btw

NE-4.5...Bisket posted a very nice critical analysis by Simmons to play against the Patriots this week. I agree with it all but playing against the Falcons on the road tops all that write-up. If you like airshows in football this game is a must watch. I like the Pats to cover by a TD+ so a cover at 75%.

PHI-9.5...The Chiefs have a hard time scoring especially on the road. 70% cover.

[Lukester]

Kramer,

CIN+4.5...oh boy. CINCI is better than PIT according to experts. I certainly agree that Carson Palmer is a much better QB than Ben Rottenburger. I might play this ML enen if PIT is off a loss and are undefeated in their last 8 at Paul Brown Stadium--not to mention Rottenburger is 10-0 in Ohio. GL on PIT I'm taking the Bengals on the spread for sure.

[Kramer]

Henry :

Miami played 3 MNF games L5 years
They won in 2007 , and lost the next week
The other two they lost , in 2004 they lost next week ,
In 2006 they won the next week
So they’re 1-1 in 5 yrs after losing.

The Jets lost 2 MNF games L5 Y , won both next week
The Eagles have had 11 MNF L5Y
4 losses 2-2 after losing
I’d have to research further for whole league last 5 yrs..
But I don’t think its’s a trend in itself.

More importantly this week :

Teams that have lost straight up and ATS in both week one and week two,
have come back in week three with their best effort, hitting 68%
over the past five years.


Road underdogs off road loss are 76-39 ats (Miami)
that’s over 100 game angle , not a trend .


The main thing is to not get in the almost impossible hole of 0-3,
which could very well be a death sentence to a season.



History has shown that exactly “zero” teams went from 0-3 to the Super Bowl.
And only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since the NFL
went to six playoff teams in each conference in 1990 —
1992 San Diego Chargers, 1998 Buffalo Bills, and 1998 Detroit Lions.



Tennessee Titans QB Kerry Collins said of the urgency of not going 0-3,
“It means you’ve got to turn up the level of urgency,
because, no matter that it’s a 16-game season, you have to turn things around quickly.”