Week 3 Trends + Stuff : ...

[Kramer]

NFL ATS StatFox Super Situation
Play Against - Home teams - off a road loss, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games.

(69-34 since 1983.) (67%, +31.6 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (68-38)

The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22.8, Opponent 18.4 (Average point differential = +4.4)

The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 42 (40% of all games.)

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).

Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-12).

Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (29-17).

I’ve chosen to highlight another first month ATS StatFox Super Situation for the NFL for this week’s feature.

We will have another couple of week’s including the Sunday & Monday action to take advantage of what has been a simple but consistently profitable system.

In continuing with the trend of the last couple of CPFN issues, this angle also features a carryover variable from last season.


What our system says is to fade home teams that closed last season with at least four SU losses in their last five games and also lost last week on the road.

In essence, this host has ZERO momentum and the fact that it is playing at home is not going to help them, especially when you add in the theoretical 3-point home field advantage built in to the pointspread.


If you look at the “stats” of our system, you’ll see that the home team we are fading is typically an underdog of -0.9 points, and you don’t usually find the league’s best clubs playing as home dogs, so our angle is built upon a solid foundation.


NFL Totals StatFox Super Situation

Play Under - Home teams against the total - team that had a winning record last season, after 1 or more consecutive losses.


(94-52 since 1983.) (64.4%, +36.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The average total posted in these games was: 41
The average score in these games was: Team 20.9, Opponent 17.1 (Total points scored = 38)


The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 54 (37.2% of all games.)

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-12).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (33-22).

Our NFL Totals StatFox Super Situation is another simple but profitable angle that occurs early and often.

In it, we are looking for home teams that had a winning record last year and are coming off a loss.

Our system indicates to play the UNDER in such a scenario. While this angles is not the most glaringly successful one I’ve written about, I’ve featured it to show that even the most simple systems can be successful if there is a conceptual foundation behind them.


In this case, our winning team is playing at home and typically produces a focused defensive result, allowing just 17.1 PPG. On average totals of 41.0, this is good enough to take the total UNDER at a success rate of 64.4% since ’83.


Again, while you may not be “wowed” by this type of record, you can see by the four different time ranges analyzed that our system is consistent, winning at a 60% rate or better for all periods. If you could win three of every five NFL totals you played for 25 years, wouldn’t you be pleased


BY JIMMY SIRODY : trends

NYJ AT S.D. (S.D. -9)


The San Diego Chargers (0-2 SU&ATS) were a trendy pick to unseat the New England Patriots in the AFC this season, but two straight late game lightning bolts have the Chargers sitting at 0-2 heading into Monday's home battle with the New York Jets (1-1 SU&ATS).


San Diego has started the season with back-to-back losses nine times since the schedule expanded to 16 games in 1978 and they have reached the playoffs just once under that big burden.


The Jets come to town after splitting their first two games against division foes. They haven't fared well outside the AFC-East when playing on the road, losing 14 of 17 SU (5-12 against the spread). New York has also floundered at a 15-23-2 clip as underdogs, though the Jets have 'covered' nine of 11 as Monday night road short-enders.


The Chargers have cashed 13 of their last 18 as home favorites in September and they are 12-4-2 ATS off a SU loss. San Diego is 8-2 ATS versus a non-division foe when under the Monday night lights.


KANSAS CITY AT ATLANTA (ATL-51/2)


Kansas City has lost 15 of 20 versus NFC teams (5-14-1 ATS). The Chiefs have cashed 18 of 26 after losing by 14 points or more and 13 of 15 during the third week of the season. Atlanta is 13-23-1 ATS as a non-division home favorite.


The SU winner is 13-1 ATS when Kansas City squares off against an NFC-South foe. The Falcons have zipped 'over' in 12 of 16 at home after scoring 10 points or less. The Chiefs have been on the high side at a 9-4-1 clip versus NFC opponents and they have topped the 'total' in 26 of 40 off a division loss.
Atlanta has ducked 'under' in 18 of 26 as favorites versus AFC clubs.


OAK AT BUF (BUF -91/2)


Buffalo looks to open the season with three straight wins for the first time in more than a decade..

The Bills are 23-12 ATS at home off a SU and ATS win. Oakland is 16-26 ATS on the road. The Raiders have eclipsed the 'total' at a 12-4-1 rate after winning SU as dogs and Buffalo has followed suit in 21 of 32 under the same scenario.

However, Oakland has slipped below the number in 17 of 21 on the road when facing teams with a winning record


HOU AT TEN (TEN -5)


Tennessee has come up short in 13 of its last 19 as division home favorites and the Titans have dropped 28 of 40 ATS at LP Field when laying between 3 ½ and 10 points.


Tennessee is 2-6 ATS at home after winning by 14 or more as well. Houston has failed in six of its last seven ATS on the division road.


The SU winner is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 series showdowns. Eight of the past 10 tussles have been on the high side. The Texans have blown 'over' in seven straight avenging a road loss and in 10 of 12 against division foes.


CIN AT NYG (NYG-13 1/5)



Cincinnati is 19-10-1 ATS on the highway. But the Bengals have failed in 11 of their last 16 on the road ATS after losing by 14 points or more. The New York Giants are 15-7-1 after scoring 30 points or more.


The defending champs have flown 'over' in 16 of 24 as non-conference favorites while dipping 'under' in six of seven as double-digit chalk. Cincinnati has been on the low side in 17 of 21 as road dogs of seven points or more


ARI AT WAS (WAS -3)


Washington is a dismal 5-14-3 as home favorites in September and the Skins have failed to cash at a 2-10-2 clip in their first role as chalk. In addition, they are 3-14 ATS after a SU dog win and 8-16-1 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back home games.

Arizona is 9-21 ATS on the road outside its division. The underdog has cashed in 15 of the past 22 series encounters.


The Cards have been on the high side at a 22-7-1 rate on the road against a non-division opponent.


MIA AT N.E. (N.E. -12 1/5)


Miami is 15-8-1 as road dogs of seven points or more, but just 3-12-1 as division road pups. New England has cashed in six of the past eight series shootouts.

The Patriots are 23-10-2 ATS at home after a SU and ATS win and 22-10-1 ATS as division favorites. The defending AFC champs are 21-9-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.


T.B. AT CHI (CHI -3)


Tampa Bay has been a bust on the road versus non-division rivals, dropping 20 of 23 spread decisions.
Chicago is 6-14 as home favorites the first four weeks of the season but 18-9 as non-division home choices.



Tampa Bay has snuggled 'under' in 17 of 23 after a double-digit win and in 36 of 53 after allowing 10 points or less. The Bucs have been on the low side in 13 of 17 as dogs of three points or less as well.


CAR AT MIN (MIN -3)


Carolina has cashed at a 14-6-1 pace as September dogs and at a 21-13-2 clip as non-division short-enders. The Panthers have 'covered' at a 22-12-1 rate on the road when facing teams with a losing record.

Minnesota has snuck 'under' at a 6-18-1 rate as home favorites of 3 ½-points or less.


ST.L AT SEA (SEA -9 1/2)


The dog has cashed in this NFC-West rivalry six of 10 times. Seattle is 18-8 as home favorites, but only 6-17-1 as division home favorites.


St. Louis is 10-23 ATS off a SU and ATS loss and the Rams have failed to 'cover' 17 of 26 on the road versus a division foe. St. Louis has zipped 'over' in 24 of 36 as away dogs of seven points or more. However, the Rams have knuckled 'under' in eight of their last nine in September


DET AT S.F. (S.F.-4)


Detroit has stumbled in 11 of its last 13 as road dogs of seven points or less. The Lions have cashed 32 of 48 after losing by 15 points or more. San Francisco was 0-7 ATS at home off a road game last year. The 49ers are 5-11 ATS off a SU dog win and 6-13 ATS at home after allowing 28 points or more. Detroit has taken the high road in 13 of 17 as short-enders on the highway and in 15 of its past 22 off a SU loss. San Francisco has dipped 'under' in 13 of 20 after winning SU as dogs
N.O. AT DEN (DEN -5 1/5)
Denver is 6-16 ATS after winning SU as dogs and 4-11 ATS at home after a SU&ATS division victory. The Broncos have 'covered' at a 17-8-1 rate after allowing 30 points or more. New Orleans has zipped 'over' in 30 of 46 after losing SU as favorites and topped the number in 20 of 27 on the road versus teams with a winning record.


PHI AT PIT (PHI -3)



Pittsburgh is 12-5-1 ATS on the road after playing a game on the road. The Steelers are 27-18-1 ATS after yielding 10 points or less. Philadelphia is 9-19 as non-conference favorites. Pittsburgh has slipped below the 'total' in 19 of 28 games off a SU division road win.


JACK AT IND (IND -5 1/2)


Jacksonville has 'covered' at an 8-3-1 pace against Indianapolis. The Jaguars are 11-3-1 as road dogs versus a division foe while the Colts are 13-26-2 as division home chalk.


Indianapolis has lost 23 of its last 38 home games in September and the Colts are 11-28 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record. Jacksonville has eclipsed the 'total' in 13 of 18 as single-digit dogs, but dipped 'under' in 11 of 15 as division road pups.



CLE AT BAL (BAL -2 1/2)



The home team has cashed in seven of the past 10 series scrapes. Baltimore is 13-4 as home favorites of three points or less and 11-4 as home chalk during the first four weeks of the season.


Cleveland has 'covered' five straight versus the Ravens and the dog is 9-4 in the last 13 encounters. The Browns are 17-9-1 as September dogs, but only 4-11 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.


Cleveland has trickled 'under' at a 5-13-1 pace in September and Baltimore has followed suit at a 7-19-3 clip during the first month of the season


DAL AT G.B.(DAL -3)



The home team has won and cashed in the past 10 series meetings. Green Bay is 8-3 as home dogs in September and 14-9 ATS off a SU division road win.


Dallas is 26-12-1 as road favorites of seven points or less. Ten of the past 11 series skirmishes have topped the 'total.' The Cowboys have been on the high side in 15 of 20 on the road versus a non-division opponent. The Packers have bounced above the number at a 16-6-1 rate after scoring 28 points or more.




BY STEVE MAKINEN - THE UNBEATEN TEAMS
One of the most popular practices of NFL pundits after the second full week of the season is to declare the dead teams based upon their 0-2 stats.


In fact, it’s said that teams which start out by losing their first two games of the season have just about a 13% chance of making the playoffs.


On the other hand, these same experts rave about the chances of the 2-0 teams. Frankly, for us bettors, any of that fodder stays at the water cooler.

We are more interested in what the start might mean to a team’s ATS chances for the coming week. I’m here now to dissect that angle for the unbeaten teams.


It seems that readers enjoy these week to week angles more than I realized. Of course, on FoxSheets, we offer a ton of carryover and bounceback systems each and every week in both college and pro football, but we never really dive into the prospects of specific Week 2 or specific Week 3 systems, etc.

With that thought in mind, I decided to look at the fortunes of teams that are 2-0 headed into Week 3 of the schedule. These are the clubs that most people have their eye on early, since they are in fact, the “hot teams”, or at least as hot as two wins can make a club.


On average, there are just less than seven teams per season that win their opening two contests, and this year there are TEN.

Fifteen-year history shows that 27% of these unbeaten teams will fall in Week 3. Which of the TEN will lose their next game in 2008?

How many are worth wagering on this coming week? If so, when are the best spots to either fade or follow these clubs?

These are just some of the points I researched.
Some of the most important concepts to understand about the unbeaten teams heading into their Week 3 games are:

1) Are they at home or on the road, 2) Are they playing an opponent that is also playing well or struggling, 3) Is the unbeaten team thrashing opponents or squeaking out games, and 4) Has the undefeated club won with offense, defense, or both so far?



I’ll reveal some very successful historical patterns that have formed for all four of those important concepts later, but for now, here are some of the basic records on 2-0 teams, taking into account the five various home/road/record scenarios plausible for week 3.


Note that all of these trends are since 1992, or the last 16 seasons.


2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams are 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS (58%)
2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams are 13-10 SU & 15-8 ATS (65%)
2-0 HOME teams facing 0-2 ROAD teams are 10-1 SU & 5-5-1 ATS (50%), with an average line of –11.2.


2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams are 18-6 SU but just 10-14 ATS (42%).
In games matching unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams, the HOME teams hold a 11-9 SU & 12-8 ATS (61%)


If you add up all the records of the trends noted just above, you’ll find that road teams cover the spread in 55% of games (49-40 ATS) involving an undefeated team. Public perception has a lot to do with this.


Think of it this way…if an unbeaten team is coming back home to play a game, the common belief is that the home team should win again.


On the flip side, when said undefeated team hits the road at 2-0, the majority of the fan population would tend to believe that the chances of that team losing its game are good, particularly if it is the teams’ first road game.


Typically, both of these scenarios lead to inflated lines on the home team. However, thankfully, you’ll see in a bit that there are some great spots in which to back 2-0 hosts
As with any simple trends, the potential exists to apply tighteners in hopes of generating even higher winning percentages. After digging deeper myself, I found some of these angles. I’ve listed and detailed them below.

2-0 HOME teams taking on 0-2 ROAD teams, when favored by 10 points or less, are 4-1 SU & ATS (80%).


Analysis: In this case, oddsmakers don’t seem to be giving enough consideration to the momentum generated by the unbeaten and winless teams in the first two weeks. Games that could be accompanied by double-digit spreads are not and home teams have capitalized at a 4-1 clip.
Plays for ‘08: ** Tennessee (Houston is actually 0-1)


2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams, when favored by 6 points or less, are just 4-9 ATS (27%).
Analysis: Here, it seems that our home teams either aren’t as good as their 2-0 start, or their road opponent might have lost one of its two games either in heartbreaking fashion or to another elite club. In any case, it is the road teams that hold the edge in this scenario.


Plays for ‘08: AGAINST Denver
In battles between unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 6-1 SU & ATS (86%) when favored by 5-points or more.
Analysis: This is exactly the opposite of the situation described just above. In this case, it is the 2-0 road team that may be overrated. Oddsmakers have tried to account for the difference, but have clearly understated it, as the games have turned out to be better on paper than on the field, with the hosts winning five of six games by an average score of 26.6-10.4. With such a low total score for the road teams in these games, keep an eye on the UNDERs as well.
Plays for ‘08: None


The HOME team holds a 3-0 SU & ATS (100%) edge in Week 3 showdowns between undefeated inter-conference opponents.
Analysis: Unfamiliarity plays a big role in the success of the home team in games between undefeated AFC versus NFC foes. Games like this are a rare, but solid opportunity to back a good 2-0 host.
Plays for ‘08: None

In divisional showdowns between unbeaten teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 7-4 & ATS (64%).


Analysis: Other than in the NFC South Division, it seems that home field advantage means a ton in division games, since it is that extra edge that teams rely on when game plans are well known. When teams are well familiar with one another, scheming doesn’t have as much of an impact as simple execution and motivation. Home field advantage is one of the more prominent motivating factors.
Plays for ‘08: None


2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS (71%).
Analysis: Teams that are 2-0 and playing as road dogs are most often the “surprise teams” of the early going. Oddsmakers apparently aren’t sold on these clubs yet, as results show these hot visiting clubs have covered 71% of the time when matched against a cold home team over the last 16 seasons.
Plays for ‘08: Carolina




2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS (73%).
Analysis: The success rate for unbeaten road teams playing at 1-1 home opponents is even better than that against winless foes. With a 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS record, most of these road teams have kept their record perfect through three weeks.
Plays for ‘08: Arizona, Pittsburgh

2-0 HOME teams are 16-8 ATS (67%) when the wagering action coming in moves the line more in their favor.
Analysis: If a home team’s line moves from –6 to –7 in a given week, it is assumed that the public, or sharps in some cases, is backing them enough for oddsmakers to move the line in hopes of drawing action the other way. When the so-called betting public backs these home undefeated teams in Week 3, they beat the number at a 16-8 rate.
Plays for ‘08: Buffalo, NY Giants, Denver (Lines as of Thursday)
2-0 ROAD teams allowing more than 15 PPG in their first two contests are 14-7 ATS (67%) in their Week 3 games.


Analysis: This trend would seem to be the opposite of what most experts would think. While 15 PPG is still a strong defensive performance, you’ll often find 2-0 teams well below it after putting on dominating defensive performances in weeks 1 & 2. However, it is the road teams that have won early with offense that fare best in Week 3 ATS. It helps that oddsmakers don’t hold them in the same regard as they do those teams that won with early defensive domination. Still, they are unbeaten and tend to stay so after this game.
Plays for ‘08: Carolina


2-0 ROAD teams allowing less than 10 PPG in their first two contests are just 7-7 ATS (50%) in their Week 3 games.
Analysis: While this is not a trend that will give you any type of advantage, I listed it simply so that you could see the difference in the success rates of the strong defensive teams and the rest. The trend above was 14-7 ATS, this one is just 7-7 ATS. In which one do think oddsmakers are giving more credit to the unbeaten road team?
Plays for ‘08: None



2-0 ROAD teams scoring more than 25 PPG in their first two contests are 11-6 ATS (65%) as underdogs in Week 3.
Analysis: Underdogs that can score points are the best kind, as they are never really out of a game. They have the ability to keep coming at the favorites, regardless of how far they are behind. If we’re lucky enough to pick up on an undefeated road dog this weekend that scores points, rest assured I’ll grab it.
Plays for ‘08: Arizona



2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by less than 3 PPG are just 6-7 SU & 4-8 ATS (36%) in Week 3.
Analysis: Teams winning their games by less than a field goal margin per contest are thought to be “living on the edge”. Results of the last 16 seasons indicate this assumption is true. Despite being at home in week 3, these fluky 2-0 teams lose outright over 50% of the time and lose ATS 64% of the time.
Plays for ‘08: None




2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 10-4 SU but just 6-8 ATS (33%) in Week 3.
Analysis: This week 3 unbeaten team trend serves as a perfect example of the trap bet in pro football. It seems that even the most dominant teams of the season’s first two weeks playing at home don’t turn out to be solid bets in week 3. Making matters worse, in 29% of these games, the home team wins outright but doesn’t cover. This is exactly the type of thing that frustrates NFL bettors.
Plays for ‘08: None






2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 1-2 ATS when playing as double-digit favorites, and 0-4 ATS as favorites of less than 4 points.
Analysis: These trends also signify the potential to get trapped. Quite often, the double-digit favorite in the early going can be a poison pill in the NFL. In a league filled with parity and year-to-year tunrover, betting such lines early in the season just doesn’t make a lot of sense. On the other side of the coin, 2-0 home teams when playing as small favorites don’t make for good bets either. Remember, there is a reason they aren’t favored by a larger number.
Plays for ‘08: None








2-0 HOME teams scoring more than 33 PPG are 13-0 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in Week 3, regardless of the opponent.
Analysis: I’ve saved the best for last, highlighting 2-0 home teams that are lighting up the scoreboard. A week 3 game at home for these prolific offensive teams has been nearly automatic, so be sure to check the NFL team stats after the weekend games.
Plays for ‘08: Denver, Green Bay
You’re probably wondering why so many of the systems have NONE for the plays for ’08. Unfortunately, this is how it goes in the NFL. Actually though, this year’s unbeaten teams haven’t been as dominant as recent years, and it’s rare to see this many unbeatens left and playing at home.plays, look for more next week!






KRAMERS OPINIONS :
A LOT OF HIGH SPREADS : BUF BY 9 MAY AS WELL BE 14 ( 2 TD'S)
I can see them winning but not covering

Giants by 2 td's, Ne same , S.D. same
As a rule I say never bet more than a td in the NFl...
The spread has historically affected about 15% of games ...
I wouldn't bet on a must win Bengals game vs the Giants
TheCards could pull an upset as warner has 0 int's
Can Seattle cover 2 td's without its receivers?
T.B./CHI = A PICK EM IMO
Survivor :

N.E. , BUF , NYG...
If you haven't taken em ...

G.L.

[Kramer]

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL GAMES

Great to see you back for our weekly look at what Nevada sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend's NFL games.


This has become a very popular feature, and I appreciate all of you taking time out of your weekend to come visit so you can learn more about how to think and bet like a sharp.


There are some common themes in this week's games. We have several spots with a 3-point favorite...where books are trying as hard as they can NOT to shift off the field goal.

That's such a common number that they'll get flooded with money the other way even with just a half point move. Should they make that move, and the game lands exactly on three...well then half the bettors win, and the other half pushes. For the books...BIG LOSS!


We're also seeing a few 9-point favorites out there. I've talked a lot about how sportsbooks are trying to stay away from 8 and 8.5 point favorites because of basic strategy teasers that focus on those games.

Books are trying to discourage teaser action, either by lifting the vigorish on the option (common in Vegas), or keeping number out of the range (more common offshore).


Some interesting things are happening in those games, and on the rest of the card. So, let's get started. Comments are presented in rotation order for your convenience.


KANSAS CITY AT ATLANTA:

Not much happening of interest here unfortunately. Atlanta is a 5.5 point favorite, and the total has been locked in at 36.5 for awhile now (after opening at 36).


The announcement that Tyler Thigpen would get the start did nothing to the line, because the sharps think all the KC quarterbacks are about equally horrible. There's just no interest in this game right now.

I know some old school sharps who automatically go against any bad team that's a favorite just on principal. That approach tends to wait until the last possible second on the hopes that the public will drive the favorite higher.


I do expect some old school money to hit the dog on game day. It certainly won't be a tidal wave though. Key numbers aren't involved. This is a game most guys have no interest in.

OAKLAND AT BUFFALO:

We come to our first game sitting on the number 9. Buffalo opened at 9 and 37. I'm now seeing 9 and 36.5.

It will take a lot of money to move off the number 9 even though it's not a critical number.

Sportsbooks just don't want to have to deal with Bills -2.5 of -2 in teasers, so it's not coming down even if a lot of Raiders money comes in. The books would rather be one-sided on Buffalo -9 rather than Oakland +2.5!

Sure, the other part of the teaser has to hit too. Some many of those have been winning that the books prefer not to take the risk. A little tick to the Under because Buffalo tends toward lower scoring games. If anything happens with the weather, it will come down more than that.

HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE:

Some Houston money came in early on the Texans +6. I'm seeing mostly +4.5 now as I write this.


The total has gone up from 37.5 to 38.5 and 39. Interesting moves. I'm hearing that the sharps just don't trust Tennessee as a favorite.

They like them as a dog, or maybe a cheap favorite (as they were in Cincinnati last week). Once the lines get higher, it's harder for them to get there consistently.

I like some of the reasons for the total going up. Kerry Collins is a better quarterback than Vince Young...and the team won't be playing in 50-mph winds this week!

Some totals guys I respect pointed that out. They think they got a sleeper at Over 37.5. Houston had a forced bye last week because of the hurricane. Hard to know how that will effect them. I was a little surprised there was so much fondness for Houston given that situation.

CINCINNATI AT NY GIANTS:

It's amazing how much this line has changed from where it would have been earlier in the season.

The Giants were seen by the sharps as a 9-7 or 10-6 type team (many of whom still think last year was a fluke). Cincinnati was supposed to have a shot at the Wildcard if they could get healthy.

The Giants would have been favored by more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown if the game was played in mid August or so.

Perceptions have changed so much that the line is now -13. Higher in places. Is that the right number? Old school guys are going to take the dog because they take every double digit dog.

They're hoping to see +14 on game day. Some of the younger guys remember how well big favorites did early last season. They're less likely to get involved either way. I've seen Over money come in at 41 and 41.5. If the weather's nice, it may go higher on game day.

ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON:

We come to the first our field goal games. Washington opened at -3. They're now -3 with -120 vigorish, or -125 in some places.

That means the sharps like Washington as a percentage play. But, if the line moved to -3.5, a whole lot of other guys would come in on Arizona with the hook.

And, some of the early money might buy back anyway because three is such a common number. You might not think that's a great strategy because there's no"middle to shoot at."

Well, three's are so common that you can make it work, particularly if you had favorable vigorish. Sharps know how to find that. I would be surprised if the line moves off a field goal. It would take a lot of public money over the weekend to cause that. The total's stayed steady at 42.

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND:

New England joins the NY Giants as the only current double digit favorites. Funny that those were the Super Bowl teams. The line opened at -13, and is now 12.5.

I'm hearing mostly Miami votes from the sharps. Some bet right away figuring +13 would be the best they'd see. Others are waiting until game day hoping the line will go up higher.

Tough to see the public loading up on New England given that the Patriots haven't even scored 20 points in a game yet.

Hard to cover a -13 like that. But, Miami did look awful last week, so it's possible. I don't know of any sharps who like New England at this price. I'm hearing Miami or pass. Nothing happening on the total yet, as it sits at 35.5

TAMPA BAY AT CHICAGO:

Chicago opened at -3.5, but came right down to -3. I'm even seeing low vigorish now at the field goal (even money if you lay the -3). The sharps don't see this Bears team as a good favorite.

Early actors were very happy to get the hook. I don't expect this line to come off the field goal.

If the public doesn't come in strong on the Bears, the sportsbooks will be rooting for Chicago on game day.

I should mention here that sportsbooks don't like dropping a 3 down to 2.5 because that 2.5 moves into the basic strategy teaser window I've been telling you about this year and last.

The sharps already like Tampa Bay +3. They'd load up quick on teasers where they could move Tampa Bay to +8.5 and cross both the 3 and the 7.

The totals sitting at 35 or 35.5. A lot of low numbers this week on the Over/Unders. If the weather is nice everywhere, you may see some game day Over money come in from the totals guys.

CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA:

Minnesota in one of those field goal games, but the Vikings are getting hit so hard that the books might have to move the line up to 3.5 anyway.

I've seen some 3.5's out there. Laying -3 will cost you anywhere from -120 to -135 depending on the place.


There was a generally favorable reaction to the benching of Tavaris Jackson in favor of Gus Frerotte. Why? Because the sharps were all over Minnesota the first two weeks and went 0-2!

They just missed both spreads, and spent a lot of time yelling at the quarterback or the play calling in those games. I'm interested to see what happens here.

I know some guys who like Carolina hoping to get +3.5 or +4. They know Steve Smith is coming back after a suspension. Might be split money amongst the sharps if the line ever settles in on game day.

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE:

The sharps made a killing on this field last week, as they bet San Francisco +9, +8.5, +8, +7.5, all the way down to a touchdown. San Francisco won that game outright.


You know it had to be a lot of money coming in to fly through that teaser window. Ultimately any Seattle teasers lost anyway...the only basic strategy team not to get there last weekend.

There's a lot less enthusiasm for St. Louis, who has looked absolutely horrible so far. Seattle has a ton of injuries though. I wouldn't be shocked to see a game day move on the dog again.

The San Francisco move happened late last week. The total has come down half a point from the opener. There's just not much happening yet with the Over/Unders this week. I won't mention them again unless there's a move of a point or more to mention.

DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO:

San Francisco opened as a 5-point favorite. Detroit money has come in pretty heavily, so we're seeing 4 or 3.5 as I write this. It's not that everyone thinks the Lions are great.

They've been stunned at how bad the defense has looked.

But, they don't trust the 49ers as a favorite of this size...particularly with an inexperienced quarterback.

Also, the Niners are coming off a divisional win, which might set up a letdown spot. I don't think the line will go all the way down to a field goal.

If it does some middle players would step in on SF. For now, Detroit is the sharp side here. And, critical numbers aren't yet involved, so it's a game others could follow along with if they were so inclined.

NEW ORLEANS AT DENVER:

Here's another game with a move over non-critical numbers. But, it's moving in the other direction.


Denver opened at -4 in this spot, and is now up to -5 or -5.5 as I look at the board. The sharps like what they see from the Denver offense this year...and they know that the New Orleans defense is pretty bad.




That, and what may be a lingering bias for the AFC in interconference matchups has led to some love for the favorite. Remember that sharps are typically dog players, so this is a serious vote for the Broncos at the lower numbers.


Some are talking about the AFC falling back to earth this year, creating more parity between the conferences. Well, that's true...because INJURIES have hurt the traditional powers. Denver isn't injured.


New Orleans wasn't an NFC playoff team last year. Might be some thought about the altitude edge in play here too. New Orleans is playing its second straight road game.

PITTSBURGH AT PHILADELPHIA:


Another field goal game.

The money is coming in on the favorite here as well. So, you have to lay heavy juice to play the Eagles at -3. I'm seeing a 3.5 now. This is similar to the Minnesota game in that the money may be so one-sided that the books have to move off the field goal and risk getting sided.

A rock and a hard place from their perspective. This move goes against the AFC/NFC theory of the prior game.

I'm hearing that some guys who focus on injuries think Ben Roethlisberger is in worse shape than he's letting on.

Donovan McNabb has looked great so far too. Guys I respect are quietly suggesting that the Eagles may be in the top two of the NFC right now alongside Dallas. We'll know more about that after watching this game.

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS:

The Colts opened at -6. Jacksonville got bet early, bringing the line all the way down to +5 and +4.5. If the Jaguars had done anything in the first two weeks, I think they would have been hit hard even at +3.

Indianapolis hasn't looked good at all, except for the fourth quarter at Minnesota. But, Jacksonville doesn't even have a good quarter in the books!

The Jaguars are 0-2, and have as many injury issues as the Colts do. The sharps see the points as a value play given two injury-riddled teams trying to work things out.

It's not an enthusiastic play though because the sharps have all been watching the Jags flounder on TV.

CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE:

We have a total that moved a point, so let me talk about that first. This one opened at 39.5, and has come down to 38.5.

Sharps definitely want to play Unders in Baltimore games given their quality defense and rookie quarterback.

Also, Cleveland's biggest weakness is seen as its secondary, which won't be as big a problem against a rookie quarterback. Baltimore opened -1 on the team side.

I'm currently seeing -2 as an average of what's out there. That puts Cleveland in the teaser window. Not many options out there to stick in a teaser with Cleveland! This is why I talked about teasers again in my Wednesday article a few days ago.

Fear of teasers is playing a big role in shaping what the lines look like this week.

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY:

Another field goal game. Though, this time it's a road favorite. That's the first time we've seen that this week. All the other field goal teams are hosts.


The sharps will go against the public here if there's a move in either direction. Normally the public bets the favorite...and bets Dallas.

So, the most likely scenario is that the sharps come in on Green Bay at favorable rates late Sunday. If the sharps liked Dallas, they would have acted already. We expect a big handle in the sportsbooks on this huge Sunday Night matchup. Everyone's looking forward to it, and they'll have all day to bet.

NY JETS AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego opened at -7.5, and jumped right through the teaser window up to -9. You're going to see a lot of that this year. It's like 8-point or 8.5-poinit favorites have gone extinct!

The Jets haven't exactly impressed yet this year. But, the public does like Brett Favre.

I'm interested to see what the public finally decides about this one on Monday.

They normally like laying points with San Diego at home because the Chargers win a lot of blowouts. But, Favre plus this many points will be hard for them to pass up. The sharps are going to play it by ear.

They're more likely to take the points than to lay them...and are hoping the line might inch up a little higher by kickoff.

[QuadzillaXXX]

Kramer,
Do you have to join to get all that info or is it just available?

[theunknown]

Kramer do we have an update and where to lean our money for this weekend's games with the stat program for over/under totals??