Week 4 trends And Stuff : ...

[Kramer]

Atlanta at Carolina
ATL is 4-1 ATS L5... ATL is 2-4-1 ATS L7 games vs. CAR... ATL is 3-8 ATS L11 games when playing a team with a winning record... ATL is 9-1 to the OVER *** games... ATL is 11-3 to the UNDER L14 road games... CAR is 3-7-1 ATS L11 home games... CAR is 8-16 ATS L24 games played on a grass field... CAR is 3-6 ATS L9 Sept. games... CAR is 11-5 to the UNDER L16 games... CAR is 7-1 to the UNDER L8 home games.


Arizona at NY Jets
AZ is 13-9 ATS L24 games as an underdog... AZ is 6-9 ATS L15 games vs. AFC East... AZ is 7-2 ATS L9 AFC games... AZ is 8-3 to the OVER L11 games... AZ is 10-4 to the OVER L14 road games... NYJ are 2-6-1 ATS L9 home games... NYJ are 6-14 ATS L20 games vs. NFC West... NYJ are 11-2 ATS L13 games after playing on MNF... NYJ are 6-1 to the UNDER L7 games... NYJ are 6-1 to the UNDER L7 home games.



San Francisco at New Orleans
SF is 2-9 ATS L11 games vs. NO... SF is 2-6 ATS L8 road games... SF is 5-2 ATS L7 games played in a dome... SF is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. NFC South... SF is 5-2 to the UNDER L7 games... SF is 5-2 to the OVER L7 games vs. NO... NO is 3-9 ATS L12 home games... NO is 4-1 ATS L5 games vs. NFC West... NO is 4-2 ATS L6 games after two or more consecutive loses... NO is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games... NO is 6-2 to the UNDER L8 home games vs. NO.


Minnesota at Tennessee
MIN is 4-2 ATS L6 games vs. TEN... MIN is 4-1 ATS L5 games vs. AFC South... MIN is 2-6 ATS L8 AFC games... MIN is 5-2 to the UNDER L7 games... MIN is 7-3 to the UNDER *** road games... TEN is 4-1 ATS L5 games... TEN is 7-2 ATS L9 Sept. games... TEN is 28-14 ATS L42 games vs. NFC... TEN is 15-3 ATS L18 games as a favorite of three points or less... TEN is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 games.



Green Bay at Tampa Bay
GB is 11-4 ATS L15 games... GB is 13-4 ATS L17 road games... GB is 7-3 ATS *** Sept. games... GB is 6-1 to the OVER L7 games... GB is 5-1 to the OVER L6 road games... TB is 4-2 ATS L6 home games vs. GB... TB is 7-3 ATS *** home games... TB is 2-4 ATS L6 home games as a favorite of three points or less... TB is 7-2 to the OVER L9 games... TB is 6-1 to the UNDER L7 games vs. GB.



Cleveland at Cincinnati
CLE is 13-5 ATS L18 games... CLE is 17-9 ATS L26 games vs. AFC... CLE is 7-3 ATS *** games off a loss to a division rival... CLE is 11-24 ATS L35 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points... CLE is 8-1 to the UNDER L9 games... CLE is 6-3 to the OVER L8 road games... CIN is 5-2 ATS L7 games vs. CLE... CIN is 6-11-1 ATS L18 games... CIN is 8-16-1 ATS L25 home games... CIN is 7-2 to the UNDER L9 games... CIN is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 home games.



Denver at Kansas City

DEN is 7-17-1 ATS L25 games... DEN is 9-17 ATS L26 games vs. AFC... DEN is 3-11 ATS L14 games vs. AFC West... DEN is 2-8 ATS *** Sept. games... DEN is 6-17 ATS L23 games as a favorite... KC is 4-7-1 ATS L12 games vs. DEN... KC is 0-5 ATS L5 home games... KC is 3-7 ATS *** games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points... KC is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... KC is 9-4 to the OVER L13 games vs. DEN.



San Diego at Oakland
SD is 10-1-1 ATS L12 games... SD is 21-9 ATS L30 games vs. AFC... SD is 10-3 ATS L13 games vs. AFC West... SD is 22-11 ATS L33 games played on a grass field... SD is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... SD is 12-5 to the OVER L17 road games... OAK is 1-9 ATS *** games vs. SD... OAK is 8-16 ATS l24 games... OAK is 2-10 ATS L12 home games... OAK is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... OAK is 6-1 to the UNDER L7 games vs. SD.



Buffalo at St. Louis
BUF is 11-5 ATS L16 games... BUF is 16-4 ATS L20 games vs. NFC West... BUF is 6-3 ATS L9 games vs. NFC... BUF is 10-1 ATS L11 games when playing a team with a losing record... BUF is 6-1 to the UNDER L7 road games... BUF is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games vs. STL... STL is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. BUF... STL is 8-15 ATS L23 games as an underdog... STL is 2-9 ATS L11 games when playing a team with a winning record... STL is 4-11 ATS L15 games after two or more loses... STL is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... STL is 5-2 to the OVER L7 home games.



Washington at Dallas
WAS is 6-14 ATS L20 games vs. DAL... WAS is 5-9-2 ATS L16 road games... WAS is 9-4 ATS L13 games when playing a team with a winning record... WAS is 3-1 to the UNDER L4 games as an underdog... DAL is 2-6 ATS L8 games... DAL is 4-9 ATS L13 games vs. NFC East... DAL is 7-2 ATS L9 Sept. games... DAL is 6-1 to the UNDER L7 games.



Philadelphia at Chicago
PHI is 4-8 ATS L12 games vs. CHI... PHI is 26-12 ATS L38 games vs. NFC North... PHI is 12-5 ATS L17 road games... PHI is 5-2 to the UNDER L7 games... PHI is 5-1 to the OVER L6 road games... CHI is 4-10 ATS L14 home games... CHI is 3-6 ATS L9 Sept. games... CHI is 14-5 ATS L19 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points... CHI is 4-1 L5 home games... CHI is 6-2 to the UNDER L8 home games vs. PHI.



MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29TH
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
BAL is 5-1 ATS L6 games vs. PIT... BAL is 5-14 ATS L19 games... BAL is 4-12 ATS L16 road games... BAL is 4-2 ATS L6 games off a win against a division rival... BAL is 7-2 to the OVER L9 games... BAL is 6-3 to the OVER L9 road games... PIT is 4-8 ATS L12 games... PIT is 10-4 ATS L14 home games... PIT is 4-1 ATS L5 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points... PIT is 5-2 to the OVER L7 home games... PIT is 10-4 to the OVER L14 games vs. BAL


more to come ...

[Kramer]

BY STEVE MAKINEN :

Since there are only four different records a team can have after three games
(3-0, 2-1, 1-2, or 0-3),
there is only so much we can deduct from a won-lost mark at this point.

So in order to further my study, I took the won-lost records, ATS marks, and Point Differentials for all the teams this decade over their first three games and grouped them.


The primary grouping was the won-lost record. Here is the breakdown of the groupings:

After three games, had…
0-3 record: 42 teams, zero of which went on to make the playoffs (0%).
1-2 record: 81 teams, 20 made the playoffs (24.7%)
2-1 record: 89 teams, 45 made the playoffs (50.6%)
3-0 record: 42 teams, 31 made the playoffs (73.8%)


As you can see, for each win a team accumulates in the first three games, their chances of making the postseason go up about 25%.


That is significant, and strongly supports the theory that much of the season is made early. Still, for the bettor out there, this information means very little.


We’re more interested in how a team’s start relates to its chances of covering pointspreads the rest of the way. Did we miss the boat already on the teams that have started fast?


Is there any way of telling whether oddsmakers are over- or undervaluing a team at this point? Are there any hidden gem teams out there whose best is yet to come? These are just some of the questions I plan to reveal answers to as I breakdown the three games starts.


started 0-3

2008 teams: CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, ST LOUIS
Eight-year history


reveals that teams that start the season 0-3 in the NFL have gone onto finish just 207-465 SU (30.8%) and 289-365 ATS (44.2%).


As shown previously, none of these 42 teams went on to make the postseason.


Only two of the 42 went on to a winning record of 9-7 (’00 Pittsburgh and ’04 Buffalo). Confidence is a big factor in this, and teams that lose it early have trouble recovering.


For those looking for potential spread value from these teams, look elsewhere, as only 14 of the 42, or 33% finish the season with a .500 mark or better ATS.


Only four of those were 10-game spread winners, the Steelers and Bills among them, were 10-game ATS winners.


As far as point differential is concerned for the winless teams after three weeks, the amount these teams are losing by in the early going means very little to their prospects for future success. Simply put, a loss is a loss as these trends reveal:


0-3 teams with a point differential of -15.0 PPG or more go just 65-159 SU (29.0%) & 95-126 ATS (43.0%) the rest of the way. KC, DET, & STL are all below this benchmark.


0-3 teams with a smaller point differential of 0.0 to -14.9 go just 142-306 SU (31.6%) & 194-239 ATS (44.8%) over the course of the 16-game season, only a slight improvement. Cleveland and Cincinnati fit this bill, with the Bengals (-9.0) being the “best” of the 0-3 teams.


The bottom line for the bettor regarding 0-3 teams: DON’T put these teams on your betting ticket consistently the rest of the way. Back them only in carefully examined spots.


Teams that have started 1-2

2008 teams: SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO, MINNESOTA, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, SEATTLE, JACKSONVILLE, OAKLAND, INDIANAPOLIS, NY JETS


While a 1-2 start is nothing to get overly excited about for a team, it is not a deathblow like the winless opening.


There’s still nearly a 25% chance to make the postseason according to eight-year history. End of year records also prove that the chance for still obtaining success is much greater, as teams that start 1-2 go on to finish 596-736 SU (44.7%) and 641-651 ATS
(49.6%).


Additionally, you’ll see below that by separating these 1-2 teams by their point differentials, you can get a good idea of which teams to play and avoid the rest of the way on your betting tickets. Take a look at some of the trends.



1-2 teams with a positive PPG differential go onto a 144-125 SU (53.5%) and 144-114 ATS (55.8%) record. This means that for the remainder of the season, these clubs have gone 128-93 SU (57.9%) & 120-95 ATS (56%).

Watch out for San Diego, Chicago, and Minnesota.


Seven of the 16 teams with a 1-2 record and positive PPG differential in this scenario went on to make the playoffs and 13 of 16 teams finished .500 or better.


Teams that start 1-2 and have a small negative PPG differential (0.0 to -4.9) finished the season at 180-213 SU (45.8%) and 184-198 ATS (48.2%), a significant won-lost drop off from the positive differential group.
The decline continues with 1-2 teams with a medium negative PPG differential (-5.0 to -9.9), which have wound up the season with a cumulative record of 211-281 SU (42.8%) and 236-247 ATS (48.8%) record. Interestingly though, the ’07 Giants and Chargers both found
themselves in this spot after three weeks. Don’t look for it to happen again.



Teams that won one of their first three games yet had a large negative PPG differential (-10.0 or more) went on to finish just a combined 61-117 SU (34.3%) and 77-92 ATS (45.6%). Additionally, NONE of these teams have made the playoffs this decade.




It is clear from these results that the only true value lies with those teams that have started 1-2 yet have outscored their opponents.


These are typically clubs that have caught bad breaks in the early going. San Diego comes to mind, after beating the Jets on Monday night.

In any case, keep track of any teams that might fit this scenario and don’t be afraid to back them consistently the rest of the way. They are most often teams that are talented, hungry, and undervalued by oddsmakers


Teams that have started 2-1

2008 teams: PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, ARIZONA, ATLANTA, GREEN BAY, PITTSBURGH, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, WASHINGTON, CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND



When a team gets off to a 2-1 start, theoretically they still have about the same chances as a coin flip of making the playoffs after 16 games.

Over the last eight seasons, the teams that have started 2-1 have combined to finish with a 832-669 SU (55.4%) and 740-713 ATS (50.9%) record.


Again however, you’ll see from the trends below that the point differential a team accumulates in the first three games is very telling in predicting future results. Take a look.

2-1 teams with a large positive PPG differential (+10.0 or more) go onto a 138-88 SU (61.0%) and 120-98 ATS (55.0%) finish.



These are upper echelon teams that might have lost a heartbreaking game thus far or were beaten by one of the truly elite clubs. Only four of the last 13 teams to fit the criteria did not make the playoffs.

This is a group to watch the rest of the way.


Philadelphia is the only team on this list.


Twelve of the 21 teams with a 2-1 record and medium positive PPG differential (+5.0 to +9.9) went on to make the playoffs while finishing a combined 200-153 SU (56.6%) and 173-163 ATS (51.5%).



The success rate continues to drop for teams that start 2-1 and have a small positive PPG differential (0.0 to +4.9), who finished the season at 333-303 SU (52.3%) and 302-315 ATS (48.9%).


These are teams that have either won really close games or have been beaten handily in their loss. In either case, they aren’t among the league’s elite.


The chances of making the playoffs for this group is just 44%, as only 17 of the last 38 teams have done so. Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Washington meet this criteria.



Teams that won two of their first three games yet had a negative PPG differential went on to finish a combined 161-125 SU (56.3%) and 145-137 ATS (51.4%).


Seven of these 17 teams since ’00 went on to the postseason, and totaled a pointspread record of 122-111, or 52.3%, the rest of the way.
It’s interesting that the 2-1 teams on the extreme ends of the PPG differential spectrum have the most success the rest of the way. You’d figure this has to be a mindset issue more than anything.




The teams with the large differential probably have the confidence to believe they are better than their 2-1 record indicates. They’re also the beneficiaries of lesser prices from oddsmakers in the weeks to come. On the other hand, the teams with the negative point differentials were likely hammered in one game and have an easier time shaking it off afterwards, again benefitting from linesmaker undervaluing.


The teams in the middle are priced right where they should be, thus the bettor gets little advantage in playing them.


Teams that have started 3-0

2008 teams: TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, DALLAS, DENVER, BUFFALO


I’ve always believed that the step from going 2-0 to 3-0 is a big one, a strength indicator that separates the men from the boys.


The additional win almost always covers built in explanations like strength of schedule, having played at home or away, injury concerns and more.

When a team gets off to a 3-0 start, in most cases, 73.8% of the time anyway, they can start dreaming playoff dreams.

However, this DOES NOT mean they are a good team to bet on the rest of the way. In fact, as you’ll see below, 3-0 teams can be just the opposite.


With oddsmakers catching up to them quickly, these teams’ best spread covering days are often behind them. Incidentally, ss a whole, 3-0 teams end the season at 484-249 SU (66.0%) and 386-327 ATS (54.1%).

Teams that won two of their three games and had a hugely positive PPG differential (+15.0 or more) went on to finish a combined 189-103 SU (64.7%) and 149-137 ATS (52.1%).


However, considering they were 47-4 ATS after three games, they only went 102-133 ATS (43.4%) the rest of the way. This is the classic oddsmaker trap scenario, pricing the elite clubs too high as the season wears on.

Unfortunately, none of the NFL’s 32 teams fit the bill.
The last 10 teams with a hugely positive PPG differential (+15.0 or more) went on to make the playoffs. However of the 17 teams meeting the criteria since ’00, only four have finished with ATS marks of 3-games over .500 or better and five finished .500 or worse ATS.


This is clearly a FADE group.


3-0 teams with a large positive PPG differential (+10.0 to +14.9) go onto a 128-51 SU (71.5%) and 104-70 ATS (59.8%) finish. This is a significantly higher SU & ATS winning percentage than the groups above or below them so keep an eye on these teams. Tennessee, NY Giants, Dallas, and Denver are the watch group.


The success rate continues to drop for teams that start 3-0 and have a small or medium positive PPG differential (0.0 to +9.9), who finished the season at 167-95 SU (63.4%) and 133-120 ATS (52.6%).


These are teams that have won tight games and whose value might be overinflated by the won-lost mark.



Of the 15 previous teams in this scenario, only two went on to finish the season with a better PPG differential, and over half of the (8) finished .500 or less ATS. Considering they are likely 2-1 or 3-0 versus the spread now, the value has already has passed.



The fact that the group with the middle range PPG differential does best the rest of the way is interesting.
It signals that these teams’ best is yet to come. For the undefeated teams above or below them, the ship seems to have sailed already.


SUMMARY


I’ve covered a lot of different scenarios to this point, so rather than asking you to go back and qualify all of the teams as to which group they are in,

here is a quick list of the potential fade and follow teams the rest of the way based upon what we’ve learned.

Remember, these are based upon expected ATS results, not on whether or not these teams will make the playoffs.


Of course, there are so many other factors to consider when filling out your weekly betting tickets, but this is a good blueprint to start from.


POTENTIAL FADE TEAMS: CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, ST LOUIS, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, WASHINGTON


POTENTIAL FOLLOW TEAMS: SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, DALLAS, DENVER


Odds are that if you collect these teams’ ATS records the rest of the way, the FOLLOW group will beat the FADE group handily.
Good luck in Week 4 as well as the rest of the way!

KRAMERS ANGLE OF THE YEAR TO WATCH :

ROAD TEAMS FAVORED BY MORE THAN 7 POINTS :

1998 TO 2007 : (10 YEARS) : 44-65-3 OR 40% IN OTHER WORDS FADE EM(ATS)
LAST YEAR : 19 GAMES
RESULT : 10-9 IF YOU PLAYED THE UNDERDOG

THIS WEEK : BRONCOS BY 9.5
BILLS BY 8
CHARGERS BY 7.5